2026年8月13日18:56:08.345 UTC / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
这场被一些人称为“民主社会主义者火热之夏”的政治季，正迎来一场格外多事的收尾。
密歇根州民主党联邦参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德（他实际上并不自称民主社会主义者，但认同该运动的理念）以一场意义重大却意外胶着的初选获胜仅一周后，民主社会主义者弗朗西斯卡·洪周二在威斯康星州州长初选中以微弱劣势落败，着实令人大跌眼镜。
民主党建制派对此结果松了一口气，他们此前曾担忧洪会破坏该党在这个关键州的选情。
但这并不意味着民主党已脱离险境，也不代表这种动荡局势会就此平息。
今夏的整体选举结果表明，民主社会主义者仍处于上升势头，在民主党今年力争拿下众议院和参议院多数席位的过程中，仍可能给该党带来麻烦。不过民主党选民已经展现出识别并应对这种潜在风险的能力。
我们来梳理一下目前得到的几点启示。
人们或许高估了民主党这一派别的崛起势头和影响力，但它显然正日益壮大。
在佐赫兰·马姆达尼去年在纽约市市长选举中大获全胜一年后，我们已经看到：
- 民主社会主义者击败了三名现任联邦众议员——分别在纽约州、科罗拉多州，以及上周的密歇根州。
- 他们还在其他多场初选中获胜，这意味着下一届国会中的民主社会主义者党团规模虽仍为个位数，但可能会创下历史新高。
- 他们有望将华盛顿特区以及可能的洛杉矶纳入囊中，加上已拿下的纽约市和西雅图市市长职位。
- 埃尔赛义德获得提名，以及前民主社会主义者成员威廉·劳伦斯在密歇根州竞争激烈的第七国会选区初选中获胜，让民主党这一派别在深蓝城市之外拥有了一个难得的试验场。
哦，别忘了部分民主社会主义议员似乎已是民主党阵营的耀眼明星。马姆达尼如今声望颇高，伯尼·桑德斯在全国范围内仍颇具人气，所有人都在等待亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特兹的下一个重大政治举动——无论是参选参议院议员，甚至是竞选总统。
不少人都在追问，为何埃尔赛义德和洪这两位此前被视为初选热门人选的候选人，最终会陷入势均力敌的苦战。
一个可能的影响因素是：民主党选民比外界认为的更加务实和讲究策略。很有可能，全国民主党领导层对提名埃尔赛义德和洪的担忧，在选举临近之际被选民所感知。
毕竟，民主党此前从未在摇摆选区提名过埃尔赛义德这样的候选人，是有其原因的。
近年来，共和党提名了一批极端且有争议的联邦参议院和州长候选人，令他们在选举中失分——比如道格·马斯特里亚诺、托德·阿金、理查德·穆尔多克、莎伦·安格尔、马克·罗宾逊——但民主党其实从未遇到过这类问题。
事实上，在2020年民主党总统初选初期，民调显示伊丽莎白·沃伦对阵唐纳德·特朗普总统的表现不如其他民主党候选人，民主党选民就曾对她持观望态度。
与此同时，威斯康星州的选情胶着也表明，非洪阵营的支持者在最后阶段团结在了更为温和的密尔沃基县行政长官戴维·克劳利身后。
因此，尽管这类候选人如今或许比以往更有机会，但民主党选民仍看重候选人的胜选可能性。
洪的落败并不意味着民主党已摆脱危险。她或许比埃尔赛义德更难成为合格候选人，但我们仍不清楚埃尔赛义德这样的候选人在摇摆州的表现会如何。
而且选民可能一开始就持怀疑态度。
最近的一项民调显示，美国人对民主社会主义者组织（DSA）的负面评价率为36%，正面评价率仅为18%。另一项民调显示，仅有38%的美国人支持更多的社会主义政策。还有一项民调显示，50%的选民表示他们不太会投票给自称民主社会主义者的候选人，仅有32%的选民表示会更倾向于投票给这类候选人。
话说回来，埃尔赛义德并不自称民主社会主义者。但他的左翼立场足够鲜明，这些民调数据仍具有参考意义。
他在11月的选举表现，将极大反映民主党选民在未来竞争性选举中，对提名他这类候选人的接受程度。
如果他获胜，对左翼来说将是一个重要时刻。如果他落败，对这场运动来说可能是更大的挫折——甚至可能让民主党失去参议院多数席位。
（事实上，一些极左翼人士似乎也对提名洪心存顾虑，担心她的最终表现会连累他们。几乎没有知名左翼人士公开支持她。）
无论周二的选举结果如何，都不应忽略一个细节：威斯康星州民主党州长初选的投票人数接近80万。
这比2022年共和党州长初选的投票人数多出约10万，比2018年上一次竞争激烈的民主党州长初选投票人数多出约25万。
洪获得的31万多张选票，对一名民主社会主义者候选人来说已是可观的票数；事实上，这一票数足以在该职位的任何竞争性初选中胜出。但当前的政治环境也让更多主流民主党选民的投票率大幅提升。
这种情况不只出现在威斯康星州。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）上月的一项分析显示，民主党初选的投票人数较前两届中期选举大幅飙升，远超共和党初选的投票人数。明尼苏达州刚刚创下初选投票人数纪录，且绝大多数选票都来自民主党阵营——该州两党初选都竞争激烈，民主党初选投票人数约为70万，而共和党仅约40万。
民主党当下的关键，是确保党内两派都能被动员起来，即便可能会有人对进入大选的候选人人选心存不满。
The Democratic establishment might have avoided disaster — but it’s still in danger
2026-08-13T18:56:08.345Z / CNN
The political season some have christened as “hot DSA summer” is lurching to an awfully eventful close.
Just a week after a momentous but surprisingly tight primary victory for Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (who doesn’t actually identify as a democratic socialist but shares the movement’s sensibilities), democratic socialist Francesca Hong narrowly lost in the Wisconsin governor’s primary Tuesday in a bit of a shocker.
The latter result is being greeted with a sigh of relief from the Democratic establishment, which feared Hong torpedoing their chances in an important state.
But that doesn’t mean the party is out of the woods or that this dynamic is going anywhere.
The totality of the results this summer suggests democratic socialists remain ascendant and could still cause the party problems as it seeks to flip the House and Senate this year. But Democratic voters have shown an ability to recognize and respond to that potential danger.
Let’s recap what we’ve learned.
It’s possible to oversell just how ascendant and significant this wing of the party is. But it’s clearly gaining steam.
A year after Zohran Mamdani’s big win in the New York City mayor’s race, we’ve seen:
- Democratic socialists defeat three incumbent House members – in New York, Colorado and last week in Michigan.
- They also won a handful of other primaries, meaning the DSA contingent in the next Congress, while still in the single digits, will likely be bigger than ever.
- They’re on course to add Washington, DC, and possibly Los Angeles to their mayorships in New York City and Seattle.
- El-Sayed’s nomination and former DSA member William Lawrence’s primary win in Michigan’s battleground 7th Congressional District give this wing of the Democratic Party a rare proving ground outside of deep-blue urban areas.
Oh, and don’t forget that some democratic socialist lawmakers appear to be among the party’s bright shining stars. Mamdani’s stock is pretty high right now, Bernie Sanders remains quite popular nationally, and everyone is waiting for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s next big political move – whether that be running for Senate or even for president.
Plenty of people have asked why El-Sayed and Hong – both of whom were considered favorites in their primaries – wound up in nail-biters.
One likely contributing factor: Democratic voters are more pragmatic and strategic than people give them credit for. It’s quite possible that the national party’s worries about nominating El-Sayed and Hong registered with voters late in the race.
There would seem to be a reason, after all, that the party hasn’t previously nominated candidates like El-Sayed in swing races.
Republicans have nominated a bunch of extreme and problematic Senate and gubernatorial candidates that cost them in recent years – think: Doug Mastriano, Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle, Mark Robinson – but Democrats really haven’t had those kinds of problems.
In fact, they seemed to balk at Elizabeth Warren early in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries after polling showed her performing worse against President Donald Trump than other Democrats.
The tightness of the race in Wisconsin, meanwhile, suggested that supporters of non-Hong candidates coalesced behind the more-moderate Milwaukee County executive David Crowley at the very end.
So maybe these kinds of candidates have a better chance today than they used to,but Democratic voters still value electability.
Just because Hong lost doesn’t mean the danger is behind Democrats. She might have been a more problematic nominee than El-Sayed, but we still don’t know how a candidate like El-Sayed will play in a battleground state.
And voters could start out skeptical.
A recent poll shows Americans viewed DSA unfavorably by a 36%-18% margin. Another showed just 38% of Americans preferred more socialism. And yet another showed 50% of voters said they would be less likely to vote for a self-described democratic socialist, while just 32% would be more likely.
Again, El-Sayed doesn’t label himself a democratic socialist. But he’s left-wing enough that these numbers are instructive.
How he performs in November will say a lot about how comfortable Democratic voters will be with nominating candidates like him in competitive races moving forward.
If he wins, it’s a big moment for the left. If he loses, it could be an even bigger setback for the movement – and cost Democrats the Senate majority.
(Indeed, some on the far-left appeared wary of nominating Hong for fear of how her performance might ultimately reflect on them. Very few high-profile left-wingers publicly supported her.)
Regardless of who won Tuesday, it shouldn’t escape notice that nearly 800,000 voters participated in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
That’s about 100,000 more than turned out for the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2022, and it’s about 250,000 more than turned out for the last competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary, in 2018.
The 310,000-plus votes that Hong got was a lot for a democratic socialist candidate; indeed, it would have won pretty much any competitive primary for that office. But the current political environment is also turning out huge numbers of more mainstream Democratic voters.
And it’s not just Wisconsin. A CNN analysis last month showed Democratic primary turnout surging far beyond the last two midterms and far surpassing GOP turnout. Minnesota just set a primary turnout record, and it was overwhelmingly on the Democratic side – with about 700,000 votes in that primary, compared to about 400,000 on the GOP side, even as both featured competitive contests.
The key for Democrats now is in keeping both sides of the party mobilized, even if there might be hard feelings about who made it to the general election.
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