2026-08-13T12:39:31.205Z / https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-moderately-point-stable-labor-market-2026-08-13/
- 概要
- 每周失业救济申请人数增加9000人，至20.9万人
- 持续申领失业救济人数减少2.2万人，至177.7万人
- 7月生产者物价指数持平；同比上涨4.7%
华盛顿，8月13日（路透社）——美国7月生产者物价持平，因商品价格下跌、服务成本小幅上涨，这强化了金融市场的预期：美联储下月可能维持利率不变。
劳工部周四发布的这份报告紧跟周三发布的上月温和通胀数据。这些数据也让经济学家预计7月个人消费支出价格指数将出现温和读数。
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美国央行以PCE通胀指标作为实现2%通胀目标的参考。此前金融市场一直计价将有加息，但上周公布的7月非农就业意外出现岗位流失后，市场加息预期已大幅减弱。
潘兴广场宏观经济咨询公司首席美国经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯表示：“能源价格上涨未向服务价格传导，叠加劳动力市场疲软，应能确保美联储在今年剩余时间里维持政策不变。”
劳工部劳工统计局称，上月最终需求生产者物价指数持平，此前6月经修正后数据为下跌0.1%。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预计，在6月此前公布的0.3%跌幅基础上，7月PPI将反弹0.2%。
在截至7月的12个月里，PPI上涨4.7%，6月该涨幅为5.5%。多数PPI数据于月初收集，这意味着7月底油价的大幅上涨可能并未体现在此次PPI数据中。正因如此，经济学家预计8月PPI读数将走高，部分人士仍认为今年加息仍有可能。
商品价格下跌0.7%，6月该数据为下滑1.4%。能源价格下跌3.1%，其中批发汽油价格下跌5.7%。食品价格下跌0.9%。扣除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，商品价格上涨0.1%。
服务成本上涨0.2%，6月该涨幅为0.5%。受股市反弹推动，投资组合管理费上涨6.5%，推高了服务成本。但机票价格下跌3.4%部分抵消了这一涨幅。医院门诊价格上涨0.9%。酒店和汽车旅馆房价下跌0.2%。
上述都是PCE通胀指标计算中的组成部分。经济学家预计，7月剔除食品和能源成分的PCE价格指数上涨0.2%，6月该涨幅为0.1%。
市场预计核心PCE通胀将温和上涨
市场预计所谓核心PCE通胀同比上涨3.3%，与6月涨幅持平。
芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察工具显示，金融市场计价美联储在9月15日至16日的政策会议上将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间的概率约为67.6%。
加息概率为32.4%，低于周三的40.6%和一周前的55%。美元兑一篮子货币走弱。美国国债收益率下跌。
尽管上月出现岗位流失，但劳动力市场似乎保持稳定，没有裁员增加的迹象。劳工部在另一份报告中称，截至8月8日当周，经季节调整后的州失业救济首次申请人数增加9000人，至20.9万人。
经济学家此前预计当周申请人数为20.2万人。夏季就业增长往往会放缓，经济学家将这一现象归因于难以针对学年结束时间带来的季节性波动调整数据。
本周发布的全美独立企业联盟（NFIB）调查也显示劳动力市场稳定，该调查显示小企业就业指标在连续四个月下滑后，7月出现反弹。
申领失业救济一周后持续领取救济金的人数（该数据可作为招聘情况的代理指标）在截至8月1日的当周减少2.2万人，经季节调整后为177.7万人，上述失业救济申请报告显示。
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US producer prices unchanged in July; labor market stable
2026-08-13T12:39:31.205Z / https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-moderately-point-stable-labor-market-2026-08-13/
Signage for a job fair is seen on 5th Avenue after the release of the jobs report in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 3, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Weekly jobless claims increase 9,000 to 209,000
- Continuing claims decline 22,000 to 1.777 million
- Producer Price Index unchanged in July; rises 4.7% year-on-year
WASHINGTON, Aug 13 (Reuters) – U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July as goods prices fell and the cost of services increased marginally, bolstering financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged next month.
The report from the Labor Department on Thursday followed news on Wednesday of mild consumer inflation last month. The data led economists to also expect moderate readings in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes in July.
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The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE inflation measures for its 2% target. Financial markets had been pricing in a rate hike, but the odds have diminished considerably following last week’s employment report showing unexpected job losses in July.
“The absence of spillovers from higher energy prices into services prices, together with a fragile labor market, should ensure that the Fed keeps policy unchanged for the remainder of the year,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The flat reading in the Producer Price Index for final demand last month followed a revised 0.1% drop in June, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rebounding 0.2% following a previously reported 0.3% decline in June.
In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 4.7% after advancing 5.5% in June. Most of the PPI data are collected early in the month, meaning that sharp oil price increases toward the end of July were probably not reflected in the PPI. As such, economists expected higher PPI readings in August, and some saw a rate hike this year as still on the table.
Goods prices dropped 0.7% after sliding 1.4% in June. Energy prices decreased 3.1%, with wholesale gasoline prices falling 5.7%. Food prices declined 0.9%. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, goods prices rose 0.1%.
The cost of services increased 0.2% after climbing 0.5%. They were lifted by a 6.5% jump in portfolio management fees, reflecting a stock market rally. That was partially offset by a 3.4% decrease in airline fares. Hospital outpatient prices increased 0.9%. Hotel and motel room prices fell 0.2%.
These are among the components that go into the calculation of the PCE inflation measures. Economists estimated that the PCE price index excluding food and energy components rose 0.2% in July after gaining 0.1% in June.
MODERATE CORE PCE INFLATION ANTICIPATED
The so-called core PCE inflation was forecast advancing 3.3% year-on-year, matching June’s rise.
Financial markets were pricing in a roughly 67.6% chance of the Fed keeping its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its September 15-16 policy meeting, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.
The odds of a rate hike were at 32.4% down from 40.6% on Wednesday and 55% a week ago. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.
Despite last month’s job losses, the labor market appears to be stable, with no sign of a rise in layoffs. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended August 8, the Labor Department said in a separate report.
Economists had forecast 202,000 claims for the latest week. Job growth has a tendency to slow during summer, a phenomenon that economists attributed to difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations related to the timing of the end of the school year.
Labor market stability was also evident in an NFIB survey this week, which showed a measure of small business employment rebounded in July after four straight monthly declines.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.777 million during the week ended August 1, the claims report showed.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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