民主党选民热情令联邦参议员与州长选举均呈胶着态势
2026年7月30日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：维多利亚·巴拉拉 福克斯新闻
多元化选民就首要中期选举议题、社会主义兴起与政治转向发表看法
哈里斯·福克纳主持“选民之声”专题小组，探讨选民投票动机、经济等首要中期选举议题以及社会主义的兴起。
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唐纳德·特朗普总统2024年在孤星州（得克萨斯州）以近14个百分点的优势获胜，但一项全新的福克斯新闻得克萨斯州登记选民民调显示，今年的联邦参议员选举结果远未明朗。尽管特朗普在共和党初选中背书支持联邦参议员约翰·科宁的现任对手、共和党联邦参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿，但帕克斯顿尚未完全团结共和党阵营。
此外，相比担忧民主党挑战者詹姆斯·塔拉利科过于极端，更多选民认为帕克斯顿不具备任职所需的品格；且民主党选民中，有7个百分点的人比共和党选民更有极强的投票动力，6个百分点的人更对中期选举抱有极高兴趣。
这些态势令塔拉利科在参议员竞选中以3个百分点的优势领先帕克斯顿（51%对48%），该差距处于本次调查的抽样误差范围内。
在极有投票动力和极高投票兴趣的选民群体中，塔拉利科的优势扩大至6个百分点（两组均为53%对47%）。
福克斯新闻民调：民主党热情塑造北卡罗来纳州联邦参议员选举
绝大多数独立选民（68%）和几乎所有民主党选民（98%）都支持塔拉利科，而支持帕克斯顿的共和党选民比例则较低，仅为89%。
部分原因在于，四分之一的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党选民支持塔拉利科（24%）。
帕克斯顿获得白人福音派基督徒、无大学学历的白人男性、农村选民、定期礼拜者、男性以及65岁及以上选民的支持。
塔拉利科的强势支持群体包括黑人选民、温和派选民、30岁以下选民、西班牙裔选民、女性以及拥有大学学历的选民。
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“尽管帕克斯顿在共和党初选中击败了科宁，但这场激烈的竞争留下了伤痕，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同负责福克斯新闻的民调工作。
“他需要在非‘让美国再次伟大’派共和党选民和独立选民中做大量工作，而这无疑需要将塔拉利科与民主党极左翼阵营紧密绑定。”
有12个百分点的差距显示，更多选民担忧帕克斯顿不具备担任联邦参议员的品格，而非认为塔拉利科过于极端（59%对47%）。
担忧帕克斯顿品格的共和党选民比例，是担忧塔拉利科过于极端的民主党选民比例的两倍（36%对17%）。
福克斯新闻民调：降温！选民否决数据中心项目
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不过，约八成支持帕克斯顿和塔拉利科的选民表示，他们的支持更多基于候选人的立场而非其个人特质。
特朗普在2024年得克萨斯州福克斯新闻选民分析（FNVA）选举民调中获得55%的好评率，44%的差评率。如今这一数据已反转：好评率45%，差评率54%，净支持率为负9个百分点。
帕克斯顿的个人净支持率为负6个百分点，好评率45%，差评率51%，而塔拉利科的净支持率为正6个百分点，好评率49%，差评率43%。
塔拉利科的受欢迎程度高于民主党本身，而共和党则小幅领先帕克斯顿。
尽管两党均遭负面评价，但共和党仅为负2个百分点（好评率48%，差评率50%），而民主党则为负9个百分点（好评率45%，差评率54%）。
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尽管得克萨斯州是边境州，但近四成选民表示，通货膨胀将是影响他们联邦参议员选票的最关键议题，两成选民认为移民问题最为重要，一成选民分别认为医疗保健、政治分歧和失业是关键议题。
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得克萨斯州选民认为自己财务状况正在恶化而非改善的比例，是认为自身财务状况正在改善的两倍多（35%对16%）。另有一半选民表示财务状况保持稳定。
在州长选举中，现任共和党州长格雷格·雅培以1个百分点的优势领先民主党候选人吉娜·希诺霍萨。
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雅培的优势部分来自更多的跨党派支持：12%的塔拉利科支持者 backing雅培，而9%的帕克斯顿支持者支持希诺霍萨。
希诺霍萨在极有投票动力的选民中领先6个百分点，在极高投票兴趣的选民中领先5个百分点。
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雅培的个人净支持率为正1个百分点（好评率50%，差评率49%）。希诺霍萨的净支持率为正11个百分点（好评率45%，差评率34%），不过近五分之一的选民无法对她做出评价。
得克萨斯州上一次选举民主党州长是在1990年（安·理查兹），上一次选举民主党联邦参议员是在1988年（劳埃德·本特森），上一次支持民主党总统候选人则是在1976年（吉米·卡特）。
西班牙裔选民群体深度分析
西班牙裔选民表示，他们的联邦参议员投票选择将受通货膨胀驱动，约四成选民称通货膨胀将是其投票的最关键议题，另有四成选民表示自身财务状况正在恶化。这与所有得克萨斯州选民的观点基本一致。
与全体选民的情况一样，西班牙裔选民群体也存在热情差距：西班牙裔民主党选民比西班牙裔共和党选民更有兴趣和动力参加中期选举。
总体而言，西班牙裔选民以18个百分点的优势支持塔拉利科（59%对41%）。
约9%的西班牙裔共和党选民跨党派支持塔拉利科，而5%的西班牙裔民主党选民支持帕克斯顿。
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点击此处查看交叉制表数据与原始民调结果
根据2024年得克萨斯州FNVA民调，特朗普在得克萨斯州西班牙裔选民中以1个百分点的优势领先前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（特朗普50%，哈里斯49%）。
有20个百分点的差距显示，更多西班牙裔选民担忧帕克斯顿不具备担任联邦参议员的品格，而非认为塔拉利科过于极端（61%担忧，41%认为极端）。
在州长选举中，西班牙裔选民以16个百分点的优势支持希诺霍萨。相比之下，2022年西班牙裔选民以14个百分点的优势支持贝托·奥罗克对抗雅培。
超过一半的西班牙裔选民对塔拉利科（57%好评）、希诺霍萨（53%好评）和民主党（53%好评）持正面看法，而超过一半的西班牙裔选民对帕克斯顿（56%差评）、雅培（56%差评）、特朗普（61%差评）以及共和党（59%差评）持负面看法。
本次民调于2026年7月23日至27日开展，由灯塔研究公司（民主党）和肖&公司研究公司（共和党）指导实施，共采访了1006名从全州选民档案中随机抽取的得克萨斯州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（72人）、手机（681人）接受现场采访，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（253人）。基于全部样本的抽样误差为±3个百分点。
本次民调额外抽样了296名西班牙裔选民，使该子群体的样本规模达到556人（抽样误差±4个百分点）。子群体结果的抽样误差更大。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和提问顺序也会影响民调结果。我们通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权处理，以确保人口结构能够代表登记选民群体。加权目标的参考依据包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析数据以及选民档案数据。
Fox News Poll: GOP divisions shape Texas Senate race
Democratic enthusiasm keeps both Senate and gubernatorial races competitive
July 30, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
By Victoria Balara Fox News
Diverse voters weigh in on top midterm issues, rise of socialism and political shifts
Harris Faulkner hosts a ‘Voters’ Voices’ panel, exploring voter motivation, top midterm issues like the economy and the rise of socialism.
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President Donald Trump won the Lone Star state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests this year’s Senate race is far less settled. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has yet to fully unify the GOP despite the president’s endorsement in the GOP primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
In addition, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6).
Those dynamics give Talarico a 3-point edge over Paxton (51% vs. 48%) in the Senate contest (within the survey’s margin of sampling error).
Talarico’s advantage in the race grows to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters (53% vs. 47% in each group).
FOX NEWS POLL: DEMOCRATIC ENTHUSIASM SHAPES NORTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE
Most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).
In part, that’s because one quarter of non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico (24%).
Paxton is the choice among White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, regular worship attenders, men and voters ages 65 and older.
Some of Talarico’s best groups are Black voters, moderates, voters under age 30, Hispanic voters, women and voters with a college degree.
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“Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left.”
By a 12-point margin, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve as a senator than believe Talarico is too extreme (59% vs. 47%).
Twice as many Republicans are concerned about Paxton’s character as Democrats are that Talarico is too extreme (36% vs. 17%).
FOX NEWS POLL: COOL YOUR SERVERS! VOTERS REJECT DATA CENTERS
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Still, about 8 in 10 Paxton and Talarico supporters say their backing is more about where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people.
Trump received a 55% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable rating in the 2024 Texas Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. Today, those numbers have flipped: 45% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable, for a minus-9 net negative rating.
Paxton garners a minus-6 net personal rating, 45% favorable vs. 51% unfavorable, while Talarico is in positive territory by 6 points, 49% vs. 43%.
Talarico is more popular than the Democratic Party while the GOP edges out Paxton.
While both parties are viewed negatively, the GOP is underwater by only 2 points (48% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable), compared with the Democratic Party at minus-9 (45% vs. 54%).
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Despite Texas being a border state, nearly 4 in 10 say inflation will be the most important issue to their Senate vote, while 2 in 10 say immigration and 1 in 10 say healthcare, political divisions and unemployment.
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By more than a 2-to-1 margin, Texas voters say they are falling behind financially rather than getting ahead (35% vs. 16%). Half are holding steady.
In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored by 1 point over Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
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Part of Abbott’s edge comes from a touch more crossover support: 12% of Talarico supporters back Abbott, while 9% of Paxton supporters back Hinojosa.
Hinojosa has the advantage among extremely motivated (+6) and extremely interested voters (+5).
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Abbott has a net positive personal rating by a single point (50% favorable vs. 49% unfavorable). Hinojosa is in positive territory by 11 points (45% vs. 34%), although nearly 1 in 5 are unable to rate her.
Texas last elected a Democratic governor in 1990 (Ann Richards), a Democratic Senator in 1988 (Lloyd Bentsen), and a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976 (Jimmy Carter).
A closer look at the Hispanic electorate
Hispanic voters say their Senate pick will be driven by inflation, as roughly 4 in 10 say it will be the most important issue to their vote and another 4 in 10 say they’re falling behind financially. This mostly matches views among all Texas voters.
And as is the case with voters overall, there is an enthusiasm gap, as more Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans are interested and motivated to vote in the midterms.
Overall, Hispanic voters prefer Talarico by 18 points (59% vs. 41%).
Some 9% of Hispanic GOP voters crossover to support Talarico while 5% of Hispanic Democrats favor Paxton.
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In 2024, Trump topped former Vice President Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters in Texas by 1 point, according to the Texas FNVA survey (49% Harris vs. 50% Trump).
By 20 points, more Hispanic voters are concerned that Paxton lacks the character to serve as senator than feel Talarico is too extreme (61% concerned vs. 41%).
For the governor’s race, Hispanic voters back Hinojosa by 16 points in the new survey. By comparison, they preferred Beto O’Rourke over Abbott by 14 points in 2022.
More than half of Hispanic voters view Talarico (57% favorable), Hinojosa (53%), and the Democratic Party (53%) positively, while more than half have negative views of Paxton (56% unfavorable), Abbott (56%), Trump (61%), and the Republican Party (59%).
Conducted July 23-27, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,006 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (72) and cellphones (681) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (253). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.
The survey includes an oversample of 296 Hispanic voters, bringing the sample size for that subgroup to 556 (±4). Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.
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