2026-07-30T08:42:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网
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更新时间：2026年7月30日 / 美国东部时间上午10:06 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网
美国商务部周四表示，该国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长1.5%，低于经济学家预期，这一迹象表明伊朗战争正在拖累经济增长。
路透社调查的经济学家此前预测，4月至6月的GDP年化增长率将达到2.1%。GDP衡量的是美国生产的商品和服务总价值。第一季度美国经济按年率计算增长2.1%。
这一数据显示，美国经济正努力应对中东冲突带来的影响，该冲突扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航运，并推高了全球能源成本。第二季度，油价飙升推动美国汽油均价从2月底战争爆发前的每加仑2.98美元升至4美元以上。
牛津经济研究院在一份报告中表示：“随着汽油价格再次上涨，实际收入受到的挤压将在今年下半年给消费者支出带来新的压力。”
尽管面临这些压力，美国经济分析局在其最新概况中表示，美国消费者在第二季度仍保持了健康的消费增速。
凯投宏观北美高级经济学家托马斯·瑞安表示，美国家庭基本上在经受住汽油价格上涨的冲击。他在给投资者的报告中称：“即便如此，目前仍不清楚他们能否承受另一轮打击，因为零售汽油价格已回升至每加仑4美元以上。”
牛津经济研究院称，除了强劲的消费者支出，人工智能领域的蓬勃投资也在推动经济向前发展。
全国保险公司首席经济学家凯西·博斯特扬西奇在一份报告中表示：“消费者从健康的劳动力市场、退税和减税，以及股市带来的正财富效应中获益，而能源价格上涨造成的任何缺口都通过减少储蓄得到了弥补。”
6月通胀放缓
周四发布的另一项政府数据显示，6月个人消费支出（PCE）指数按年率计算增长3.7%，符合经济学家的预测。这一读数较5月有所放缓，对试图抑制通胀的美联储来说是一个可喜的信号。
PCE指数追踪的是消费者购买的商品和服务价格随时间的变化情况。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心PCE指数上月上涨3.3%。
分析师表示，较为温和的通胀数据可能会阻止美联储在短期内上调基准利率。
北-light资产管理公司首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利在电子邮件中表示：“今天上午公布的弱于预期的GDP数据可能令人担忧，即经济增速过快放缓。另一方面，较低的PCE读数应该会给美联储更多耐心的空间，不会过早加息。”
美联储周三表示将维持关键利率不变。但在12名联邦公开市场委员会成员中，有三人投票支持加息，这表明美联储内部在如何应对通胀问题上存在分歧，目前通胀仍顽固地高于美联储设定的2%目标。
在周三的新闻发布会上，美联储主席凯文·沃什表示，实现美联储2%的通胀目标可能需要时间。
他对记者说：“我们明白，超过目标水平五年多的通胀不可能在9周内，或仅凭一个月的小幅价格下跌就得到解决。”
牛津经济研究院预测，核心通胀将维持在高位，年底的年化增长率将达到3.1%。这家投资咨询公司表示：“要到明年，核心通胀才会持续走低。”
编辑：阿兰·谢特
U.S. economy slowed in second quarter, but consumers continue to spend
2026-07-30T08:42:00-0400 / CBS News
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Updated on: July 30, 2026 / 10:06 AM EDT / CBS News
The nation’s gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday, weaker than economists expected and a sign the Iran war is hurting growth.
Economists polled by Reuters predicted GDP would rise at an annualized rate of 2.1% for April to June. GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. The economy grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the first quarter.
The reading shows an economy grappling with the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and driven up global energy costs. In the second quarter, a surge in oil prices lifted U.S. gasoline prices from an average of $2.98 a gallon just before the war started in late February to well over $4.
“With gas prices rising again, the squeeze on real incomes will put renewed pressure on consumer spending in the second half of the year,” Oxford Economics said in a report.
Despite those pressures, U.S. consumers continued to spend at a healthy clip in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its latest snapshot.
Households are largely weathering the shock of higher gas prices, according to Thomas Ryan, senior North America economist at Capital Economics. “Even so, it remains unclear whether they can absorb another hit now that retail gasoline prices have risen back above $4 a gallon,” he said in a note to investors.
Along with solid consumer spending, booming investment in artificial intelligence is also keeping the economy moving forward, according to Oxford Economics.
“Consumers benefited from a healthy labor market, tax refunds and reductions, positive wealth effects from the equity market, and any shortfall after that due to higher energy prices was bridged by a pullback in savings,” Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic said in a report.
Inflation slowed in June
Separate government data released on Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in June, in line with economists’ forecasts. The reading represents a slowdown from May, a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve as it tries to curb inflation.
PCE captures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers over time. Core PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% last month.
Analysts said the softer inflation figures are likely to deter the Fed from hiking its benchmark interest rate in the short term.
“The weaker-than-expected GDP numbers this morning could be cause for concern that the economy is slowing too quickly,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said in an email. “On the other hand, the lower PCE readings should give the Fed some more room to be patient and not raise interest rates prematurely.”
The Fed said on Wednesday that it would hold its key interest rate steady. Yet three members of the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise interest rates, signaling internal division in the Fed over how to handle inflation, which remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target.
During a press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said it might take time to reach the Fed’s 2% target.
“We understand that the five-plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks, or by a single month of modest price decreases,” he told reporters.
Oxford Economics predicts that core inflation will remain elevated, ending the year at 3.1% annually. “It won’t be until next year that core inflation heads sustainably lower,” the investment advisory firm said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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