2026-07-30T12:38:21.18Z / reuters.com
- 摘要
- 国内生产总值按年率计算增长1.5%，低于经济学家预期的2.1%增速
- 消费者支出激增3.2%；企业设备投资按年率计算增长15.2%
- 贸易逆差拖累GDP增长1.01个百分点
- 6月通胀有所放缓，但中东冲突带来上行风险
华盛顿7月30日路透电 — 受贸易逆差扩大影响，美国第二季度经济增长放缓，但强劲的消费者支出和与人工智能基础设施建设相关的企业投资凸显了国内需求的强劲态势。
美国商务部周四发布的国内生产总值初步数据显示，经济增长有所放缓，同时也反映出为满足强劲的国内需求，企业持续去库存。报告显示，上一季度美国经济基本经受住了中东冲突的冲击，但美伊之间重新爆发的冲突给下半年经济增长带来了下行风险。
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经济学家表示，今年唐纳德·特朗普总统的“一项宏伟法案”带来的丰厚退税助推了上一季度的消费者支出，这一提振因素已经消退，加之汽油价格再度上涨，美国家庭已不再有缓冲空间。储蓄率降至四年低点，消费者不太可能继续动用储蓄来维持支出，这加剧了美国经济日益增多的脆弱性。
“潜在增长势头稳固，但难以持续，”潘兴广场宏观经济咨询公司高级美国经济学家奥利弗·艾伦说道。
美国商务部经济分析局在第二季度GDP初步预估报告中称，上一季度国内生产总值按年率计算增长1.5%。路透社调查的经济学家此前曾预测GDP增速为2.1%。预估区间从0.8%到2.9%不等。
但该项调查是在6月经济先行指标报告发布之前开展的，该报告显示商品贸易逆差和零售库存均小幅收缩。这一数据促使部分经济学家将GDP增速预期下调多达0.8个百分点。美国第一季度GDP增速为2.1%。
占美国经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出，在第一季度骤然放缓至0.5%的增速后，本季度激增3.2%。
除了规模更大的退税之外，高收入家庭也推动了支出增长，这些家庭得益于资产价格的强劲上涨，但近期股市抛售可能会放缓这一增长势头。刚刚落幕的国际足联世界杯以及非营利组织与中期选举相关的支出，可能也助力了消费增长。
尽管投资者担忧许多科技公司的估值过高，但人工智能投资热潮丝毫没有放缓的迹象，这也助力推高了国内需求。企业设备支出按年率计算增长15.2%，连续第二个季度实现两位数增长。
人工智能建设拉动进口
但人工智能建设严重依赖进口，导致贸易逆差扩大。贸易逆差拖累GDP增长1.01个百分点，为2025年第一季度以来的最大拖累。
进口大幅增加通常会被库存增长所抵消。但由于国内需求强劲，库存持续减少。库存拖累GDP增长0.67个百分点。政府支出按年率计算下降0.8%，其中联邦支出下降4.1%，给GDP增长带来小幅拖累。
剔除贸易、库存和政府支出后的私人国内最终销售按年率计算增长3.9%。这是该衡量国内需求的指标自2023年第一季度以来的最快增速，此前第一季度增速为1.7%。
美国股市开盘走高。美元兑一篮子货币小幅下跌。美国国债收益率上升。
美联储周三将基准隔夜利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间。美国央行政策制定委员会的三名委员投了反对票，他们“支持”加息25个基点。
美联储将经济活动描述为“在不确定性上升的情况下持续稳健扩张，部分不确定性源于中东冲突”。
经济学家预计美联储最早将于9月加息以抑制通胀，这也是他们预测下半年经济增长放缓的原因之一。美国平均汽油价格已重新回升至每加仑4美元以上。
上一季度需求强劲的同时，通胀也大幅攀升。国内生产总值购买价格指数——美国经济通胀的关键衡量指标——按年率计算增长5.7%。这是四年来的最快增速，第一季度增速为3.6%。个人消费支出价格指数按年率计算增长5.1%，此前第一季度增速为4.6%。
剔除食品和能源价格的所谓核心个人消费支出通胀按年率计算增长3.4%。美联储以该通胀指标作为2%通胀目标的参考。尽管经济分析局周四发布的其他数据显示6月个人消费支出通胀有所放缓，但经济学家并未将这一放缓当回事，他们预计由于中东冲突升级，价格压力将会上升。
由露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；奇祖·野宫和安德里亚·里奇编辑
我们的报道准则：汤姆森路透社信任原则。
US economic growth slows in second quarter, but domestic demand robust
2026-07-30T12:38:21.18Z / reuters.com
- Summary
- Gross domestic product increases at 1.5% pace, below economists’ expectations for a 2.1% growth rate
- Consumer spending surges at a 3.2% pace; business investment in equipment rises at 15.2% rate
- Trade deficit subtracts 1.01 percentage points from GDP
- Inflation moderates in June, Middle East conflict poses upside risk
WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter amid a widening in the trade deficit, but robust consumer spending and business investment related to the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure underscored strong domestic demand.
The moderation reported by the Commerce Department in its snapshot of gross domestic product on Thursday also reflected continued inventory drawdown to meet the strong domestic demand. The report suggested the economy largely weathered the Middle East conflict last quarter, though renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran posed a downside risk to growth in the second half of the year.
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Generous tax refunds this year from President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which helped to fuel consumer spending last quarter, are behind, leaving households without a cushion as gasoline prices resume their upward trend. With the saving rate at a four-year low, consumers are unlikely to continue dipping into savings to maintain their spending, adding to the economy’s growing vulnerabilities, economists said.
“Underlying growth is solid, but unlikely to be sustained,” said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Gross domestic product increased at a 1.5% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.1% pace. Estimates ranged from a 0.8% rate to a 2.9% pace.
But the survey was conducted before the release of June’s advance economic indicators report, which showed a moderate contraction in the goods trade deficit and retail inventories unchanged. That data prompted some economists to cut their GDP estimates by as much as 0.8 percentage point. The economy grew at a 2.1% pace in the first quarter.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged at a 3.2% rate after abruptly slowing to a 0.5% growth pace in the January-March quarter.
In addition to larger tax refunds, spending was boosted by higher-income households that are benefiting from strong growth in asset prices, but a recent stock market sell-off could slow the momentum. The recently ended FIFA World Cup tournament also likely added to the strength as did midterm election-related spending by nonprofits.
The AI investment boom, which is showing no signs of slowing despite investor concerns that valuations of many technology companies have become stretched, also helped to boost domestic demand. Business spending on equipment increased at a 15.2% pace, notching a second straight quarter of double-digit growth.
AI BUILDOUT PULLING IN IMPORTS
But the AI buildout is heavily reliant on imports, contributing to a widening in the trade deficit. The trade shortfall sliced off 1.01 percentage points from GDP growth, the most since the first quarter of 2025.
A large increase in imports is normally offset by a rise in inventories. But inventories have continued to be depleted because of the strong domestic demand. Inventories subtracted 0.67 percentage point from GDP growth. Government spending contracted at a 0.8% pace as federal outlays declined at a 4.1% rate, imposing a small drag on GDP growth.
Final sales to private domestic purchasers, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending, increased at a 3.9% pace. That was the fastest increase in this measure of domestic demand since the first quarter of 2023 and followed a 1.7% pace of growth in the January-March quarter.
U.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark overnight interest rate in a 3.50%-3.75% range. Three members of the U.S. central bank’s policy-setting committee dissented. They “preferred” a quarter-percentage-point hike.
The Fed described economic activity as “expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.”
Economists expected the Fed to raise interest rates as soon as September to quell inflation, which also factored into their expectations for slower economic growth in the second half. Average gasoline prices have risen back above $4 a gallon.
The strength in demand last quarter was accompanied by a surge in inflation. The price index for gross domestic purchases, a key measure of inflation in the U.S. economy, increased at a 5.7% pace. That was the fastest in four years and followed a 3.6% rate of increase in the first quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose at a 5.1% rate after advancing at a 4.6% pace in the January-March quarter.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE inflation increased at a 3.4% pace. The Fed tracks the PCE inflation measures for its 2% target. Though other data from the BEA on Thursday showed PCE inflation easing in June, economists shrugged off the moderation and expected price pressures to rise because of the escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
