2026-09-06T10:00:29.171Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/06/politics/charlie-kirk-turning-point-future-jd-vance
去年9月10日，查理·柯克在盐湖城面向餐厅业主发表演讲，分享了源自自身逆袭经历的商业建议。
这位保守派活动人士指出，一家企业要想长久存续，必须与创始人的“精气神与愿景”深度绑定，但他同时警告，“将品牌与创始人剥离”是企业家可能面临的最大挑战之一。
“在‘转折点美国’（Turning Point USA）这件事上，我们还没能成功做到这一点，”柯克坦言。该组织是他为影响和动员年轻人而创立的。
数小时后，一名枪手在犹他州一所大学校园枪杀了柯克，年仅31岁。
在他去世后的这一年里，“转折点”的领导层——包括柯克的遗孀埃丽卡，以及他最亲密的朋友和副手们——直面了他在那个悲剧清晨描述过的难题：保护并壮大这场在极大程度上围绕其魅力领袖的精气神、直觉和名人效应建立起来的政治运动。
他们是在极不寻常的环境中应对这一挑战的：针对柯克 alleged 凶手的刑事诉讼仍在进行；保守派影响力人士就他的遗产争论不休；以“转折点”前雇员坎迪斯·欧文斯为首的极右翼人物正就他的死亡传播毫无根据的阴谋论。
2026年中期选举是摆在该组织面前的最大考验：没有查理·柯克的“转折点”将何去何从？
“存在一个真空，很多人都试图填补它，”共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯对CNN表示，“但没人能复刻他的成就。”
从某些指标来看，答案是柯克留下的组织变得更大了。据CNN获取的一份内部文件显示，目前全美约1500所高校设有“转折点”校园分会，较去年增长64%；附属高中俱乐部数量几乎翻了两番。“转折点”如今称其拥有超过100万名捐赠者和1200多名员工。
其政治运作也在扩张。“转折点”的工作人员和志愿者已进驻更多关键州，这些州的选举不仅关乎2026年共和党权力格局，也影响两年后的总统大选。
这一局势的重要性还延伸至副总统JD·万斯的政治抱负。万斯是柯克的密友，该组织已背书他参加2028年总统选举。该组织能否维系柯克创立的运动，并动员他多年来争取的选民，将决定这位副总统能否继承唐纳德·特朗普组建的政治联盟。
“如果你如此信任JD，那会更激励我们拼尽全力、倾巢出动，”“转折点行动”（Turning Point Action）首席运营官泰勒·鲍耶说，“我们将竭尽所能赢得2026年的选举，因为利害关系重大——在当前情况下，就是为了推动JD参选。”
不过，“转折点”自身的效力在其家乡亚利桑那州受到了审视。一些共和党人指责这个引发两极分化的组织导致该党近期选举失利。今年，该组织为众议员安迪·比格斯提供了全力支持。比格斯是特朗普的保守派盟友，他的州长候选人身份重新引发了人们对极右翼候选人的担忧——这类候选人曾在全州选举中以微弱劣势落败。
与此同时，“转折点”帮助建立的政治联盟正面临该组织难以掌控的新压力。民调显示，年轻选民群体——他们在2024年大幅转向特朗普，进一步提升了柯克在共和党内部的地位——如今对总统已不再满意。
“转折点”发言人安德鲁·科尔维特承认，该运动正面临逆风，“在年轻选民中尤其如此”。
“他们告诉我们，他们担心住房问题、负担能力、外交政策等等，”科尔维特说，“但如果说有谁具备政治才能和能力，能在中期选举前直接回应他们的需求、愿望和担忧，那就是特朗普总统和JD·万斯。”
柯克于2012年创立“转折点美国”，当时他年仅18岁。这个最初面向年轻保守派的非营利组织，最终发展成一个规模庞大、价值数百万美元的网络，渗透到美国政治的各个方面，包括信仰、文化、学校、选民登记、候选人背书和竞选筹款。
但“转折点”同时也为柯克本人打造了一个巨大的平台。他的播客以及在大学校园与自由派人士的激烈交锋（后在网络上走红），让他成为右翼最知名的人物之一。他在整个运动中的人脉还弥合了特朗普“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）联盟内部的一些分歧。
事实证明，“转折点”的这一部分难以替代。
如今由科尔维特主持的柯克播客片段，在YouTube上的观众量已难复当年。其他人也曾尝试复刻他校园辩论的病毒式传播效果，但成效不一。而柯克作为不同派系之间纽带的右翼网络生态，在特朗普第二任期内已经趋于松散。
“转折点”的领导层私下承认，没人能替代柯克。周四将在达拉斯举行的特朗普中期选举大会上，人们将纪念柯克逝世一周年。相反，他们将重心放在了他们可以维系和扩张的事物上：柯克围绕自身建立的这个组织。
“没错，我们再也没有查理的社交媒体账号了，这是巨大的损失。我们也没有了他的声音——这太重要了，”一名参与该组织的人士告诉CNN，“但‘转折点’的实际运作机制从未如此庞大。”
为证明这一点，他们提到了最近为150名新员工举办的培训。在线招聘网站上显示，“转折点”在摇摆州有数十个职位空缺。
“今年的选举我们会比2024年规模更大，”鲍耶说。
鲍耶办公室的架子上摆满了政治纪念品：一件卡尔文·柯立芝徽章、一尊西奥多·罗斯福半身像，以及一幅装裱好的《新闻周刊》2016年未出版封面——封面是希拉里·克林顿的“女总统”形象，旁边是《时代》周刊将特朗普评为年度人物的封面。
其中还有一幅柯克的画像，亚利桑那州“转折点”校园里随处可见他的肖像。
鲍耶在那里 overseeing 该组织的选民动员机器——正如他所说，这是柯克遗产的“巅峰”。
“这有点像超级碗，”鲍耶说，“如果我们教育了数十万甚至数百万年轻人，结果他们只是说‘哦，你知道，别用那个’，那有什么意义呢？对吧？”
他补充道：“查理真的坚信这一点。”他在接受CNN90分钟采访时不止一次用现在时态描述已故的朋友和前领导人。
鲍耶目前正在扩展现于2024年选举中试行的项目。当时，该组织将工作人员和志愿者部署到亚利桑那州的各个社区，动员潜在的共和党选民。与传统的挨家挨户敲门拉票不同，“转折点”指示组织者建立真诚的联系、培养关系、出席当地活动，至少在最初阶段避免谈论政治。
鲍耶认为，这是一种基于质量而非数量的策略。
到选举日，组织者预计将制定计划，确保其负责的家庭——约600至1000名选民——前往投票站或通过邮寄方式投票。“选票追踪者”的任务是确保他们完成投票。每位组织者的目标是动员其负责选民中的约一半人——这一门槛远高于传统的拉票人员。
这项行动的成效难以衡量，包括特朗普自己的政治团队在内的共和党人对此持怀疑态度。但“转折点”从2024年选举中拿出了令人信服的成果：特朗普以5.5个百分点的优势赢得亚利桑那州，这是他在所有摇摆州中最大的胜差。
这次胜利让“转折点”更坚定地将赌注押在2026年选举上。甚至在中期选举的选区版图完全成型之前，该组织就已开始在关键摇摆州部署人员并招聘人手。“转折点行动”总部内的墙上挂着这些州的地图，上面标注着选民的热图和“可争取选民”的详细分类。
今年春天，该组织参与了白宫针对印第安纳州共和党议员的报复行动，发挥了检验作用。这些议员抵制了特朗普要求重新划分该州国会选区的呼吁。特朗普背书的挑战者击败了8名共和党议员中的7名。
印第安纳州副州长米迦·贝克威斯是特朗普的盟友，他表示，尽管“转折点”在该州历史尚浅，但行动迅速，并指出该组织留下了人力，为未来的政治斗争做好了准备。
“事实胜于雄辩。批评者可能会说，‘这是第一年，他们能有什么作为？’”贝克威斯说，“我不知道如何拆分功劳，但我们赢了，而且赢得很漂亮。”
关键州的共和党幕僚称，“转折点”已经在发挥影响力。新罕布什尔州前共和党主席克里斯·阿杰尔表示，该组织比通常的草根组织更早地进驻当地，聘请了经验丰富的本地活动人士，其能见度“极高”。
密歇根州资深战略家杰森·罗伊表示，“转折点”的组织者比他通常在年轻共和党团体中遇到的大学生“更投入、更有影响力”。
“‘转折点’由真正的信徒组成，”罗伊说，“他们埋头苦干是因为在乎，而不是因为这是踏入政坛的第一步。”
在爱荷华州，“转折点”日益增长的影响力已经与共和党政治中最具分量的背书形成了较量。
该组织支持商人和农场主扎克·拉恩参加该州备受关注的共和党州长初选。特朗普则背书了众议员兰迪·芬斯特拉。
拉恩最终获胜。
“我们当时忙着讨论特朗普的背书，”爱荷华州知名保守派电台主持人杰夫·安杰洛说，“结果错过了最重要的背书：‘转折点行动’。”
没人比朱莉·斯皮尔斯伯格更清楚“转折点”对共和党选民的影响力。
去年，鲍耶明确表示要罢免斯皮尔斯伯格——这位注册共和党人在2020年总统选举中支持卡玛拉·哈里斯而非特朗普——他所在的梅萨市议会成员。“转折点”牵头发起了对她的罢免行动，2025年12月，斯皮尔斯伯格以约700票的差距输掉了她担任了五年的席位。
“这令人崩溃、心碎，也让很多人愤怒，”她说。
斯皮尔斯伯格认为自己是“转折点”在亚利桑那州共和党中影响力日益增强的牺牲品，也是她和其他人所说的该组织对党内政敌采取报复性手段的受害者。该组织积极介入初选，背书了数十名候选人，取得了不少胜利，但也同时重创了 fellow 共和党人。
这类冲突日益公开化。今年7月，鲍耶在X平台上质疑亚利桑那州众议员阮光——一位童年逃离共产主义越南的共和党人——是否会说英语，引发了强烈反弹。当共和党州众议员尼克·库珀为阮光辩护时，鲍耶威胁要在2028年支持挑战库珀的候选人，并随后宣布“转折点”撤回对库珀的背书。
CNN通过邮件联系库珀时，他拒绝重新讨论这一事件。通过办公室联系阮光的尝试未能成功。
如果“转折点”能 consistently 将初选胜利转化为大选胜利，这些策略在特朗普时代可能不会被共和党人过多关注。但在亚利桑那州，情况并非如此。
该组织在共和党州长候选人卡里·莱克和联邦参议院候选人布雷克·马斯特斯2022年的失败竞选发挥了关键作用。莱克两年后又输掉了参议院选举。
一名“转折点”官员指出，该组织并未在莱克的初选中背书她，但在她成为共和党提名候选人后立即出手相助。不过，鲍耶坚称他们当时正“朝着莱克获胜的方向前进”。他认为，这次失败的教训是该组织需要更多人力。
“如果我们当时继续努力、争取更多选票，我认为我们本可以赢，”他说。莱克最终以约1.7万票的差距输掉了州长选举。
失利甚至波及亚利桑那州规模小得多的选举。今年早些时候，“转折点”介入了盐河项目的竞选——这是一个当地公用事业委员会的选举，通常很少引起公众关注。该组织的参与推动了双方的投票率激增，但清洁能源候选人最终赢得了近年来记忆中首次多数席位。
“转折点”官员辩称，该组织在“影响地方选举的全国逆风”中保住了委员会两个最关键的领导职位。但进步人士在选举后宣称胜利，就连当地共和党人也承认，委员会的左倾转向是重大挫折。
“我认为（‘转折点’）惨败，这对其他人来说再好不过了。我不敢说得太多，因为我们不想让他们停下来，”亚利桑那州太阳能工业协会执行董事奥顿·约翰逊说，“他们完全不知道自己在做什么，也不知道自己不知道。结果很多人都讨厌他们。”
亚利桑那州公共事业委员会成员尼克·迈尔斯认为，在该党在全州失去权力之际，“转折点”的存在正在加剧共和党内部的分裂。今年早些时候，“转折点”背书的挑战者在初选中击败了迈尔斯。他表示，几年前他在X平台上与鲍耶发生争执后，就失去了该组织的支持。
“他们一开始介入，共和党人就开始输，”迈尔斯说，“这不是因为我们变成了紫色州。选民无法忍受‘转折点’提名的候选人。如果他们不开始提名能获胜的候选人，他们的日子就屈指可数了。”
该组织将赌注押在州长候选人比格斯身上，希望扭转该党近期的颓势。“转折点”官员指出，比格斯是柯克最后也是最热情的背书者之一，他们认为他是“亚利桑那州具有变革性的世代领袖——能够将亚利桑那打造成西部的佛罗里达”。
鲍耶表示，比格斯比他的前任更有经验，更有能力击败现任州长凯蒂·霍布斯——这位是今年全美最脆弱的民主党州长。他还补充说，“转折点”在竞选工作方面也更有经验了。
亚利桑那州的一些共和党人认为，这场选举不仅是对比格斯的公投，也是对“转折点”的考验。长期在亚利桑那州工作的共和党幕僚巴雷特·马森表示，如果比格斯获胜，许多共和党人预计“转折点”将 effectively 接管州共和党。但如果失败，也会产生相应的后果。
“‘转折点’将全部赌注押在了两个人身上：安迪·比格斯和JD·万斯，”马森说，“如果这两个人在即将到来的选举中都失利，我预测他们在2028年后就不会有太多存在感了。”
“转折点”最近将其在爱荷华州的员工人数增加了一倍，并在新罕布什尔州迅速部署组织者，为这两个州的关键中期选举做准备。选举结束后，团队将留驻当地——等待万斯做出决定。
去年12月，埃丽卡·柯克背书万斯，在2028年总统竞选界掀起了第一波冲击波——她不仅抢先于万斯本人，甚至领先于外界普遍预计将在选择继任者方面发挥决定性作用的特朗普。从那时起，“转折点”就开始证明，如果万斯宣布参选白宫，一个运转成熟的组织将为他做好准备。
新罕布什尔州前共和党主席阿杰尔表示，在新罕布什尔州共和党首场总统初选投票前，“转折点”可以为万斯带来“显著的组织优势”。与此同时，爱荷华州将举办共和党首场党团会议。
“最终还是要靠候选人说服选民，”他说，“但一个优秀的组织绝对会有所帮助。”
万斯与“转折点”保持着密切联系，他出席了多场活动，并客串主持了柯克的播客。
“这种相互忠诚源于JD与查理之间真诚的亲密友谊，”一位接近副总统的消息人士告诉CNN。柯克帮助万斯在共和党内部崛起，并让他获得了如今的职位。
尽管万斯仍不愿公开谈论自己的政治未来，但该消息人士称，他私下将“转折点”的支持视为实现未来抱负的关键。该组织为万斯提供了与特朗普联盟中的“美国优先”铁杆支持者的联系，以及一个与特朗普政治团队分开的资金充足的政治基础设施。
“他们 specifically 是一个MAGA权力中心，而非传统权力中心，”该消息人士说，“他们与那些不一定支持JD的老牌建制派截然不同，这为MAGA选民提供了真正的归宿。”
鲍耶表示，他预计万斯将在敲定计划前密切关注中期选举结果。但他补充道：“如果人们希望你参选，而你决定不参选，你通常就再也不会有参选的机会了。”
对“转折点”来说，今年秋天赢得共和党胜利，尤其是在亚利桑那州的胜利，将让万斯有理由相信，柯克留下的这个组织能够帮助他入主白宫。
失败则会带来清算。鲍耶表示，如果该组织未能达成目标，它对自身的评判将比任何外部批评者都更为严苛。
鲍耶说：“查理当时就是这么想的。”
CNN的阿莱娜·特里尼为本报道做出了贡献。
Without Charlie Kirk, Turning Point is building a future for his movement — and for JD Vance
2026-09-06T10:00:29.171Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/06/politics/charlie-kirk-turning-point-future-jd-vance
Charlie Kirk sat before a Salt Lake City audience of restaurateurs last September 10, dispensing business advice drawn from his own unlikely rise.
The conservative activist argued that a company needed a deep connection to the founder’s “energy and vision” to endure, but he also warned that “separating the brand from the founder” was among the greatest challenges an entrepreneur could face.
“We have not done this successfully yet,” Kirk acknowledged of Turning Point USA, the organization he built to influence and mobilize young people.
Hours later, a gunman fatally shot Kirk on a Utah college campus. He was 31.
In the year since his death, Turning Point’s leaders — including Kirk’s widow, Erika, and some of his closest friends and lieutenants — have confronted the very challenge he described that tragic morning: preserving and expanding a political movement that had been built, to an extraordinary degree, around the energy, instincts and celebrity of its charismatic leader.
They have done so amid remarkable circumstances, including the criminal case against Kirk’s alleged killer; conservative influencers warring over his legacy; and far-right figures, led by former Turning Point employee Candace Owens, spreading baseless conspiracy theories about his death.
The 2026 midterm elections present the biggest test yet of the question hanging over the organization: What is Turning Point without Charlie Kirk?
“There is a void, and lots of people are trying to fill it,” Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters told CNN, “but no one will be able to do what he did.”
By some measures, the answer is a larger organization than the one Kirk left behind. About 1,500 colleges have Turning Point chapters on campus, up 64% over the past year, according to an internal document obtained by CNN, and affiliated high school clubs have nearly tripled. Turning Point now says it has over 1 million donors and more than 1,200 employees.
Its political operation is expanding, too. Turning Point staff and volunteers are embedded in more states with contests critical to Republican power in 2026 — and the presidential race two years later.
The stakes extend to the political ambitions of Vice President JD Vance, a close Kirk friend whom the organization has already endorsed for president in 2028. Whether the organization can sustain Kirk’s movement — and mobilize the voters he spent years courting — could help determine whether the vice president can inherit the political coalition Donald Trump assembled.
“If you believe in JD that much, that’s even more motivation to work our butts off and throw the kitchen sink at this thing,” said Tyler Bowyer, the chief operating officer for Turning Point Action. “We’re going to do everything we possibly can to win (in 2026) because so much is at stake — in this case, getting JD to run.”
Turning Point’s own effectiveness, though, has come under scrutiny in its home state, Arizona, where some Republicans fault the polarizing organization for the party’s recent electoral defeats. This year, the group has put its muscle behind Rep. Andy Biggs, a conservative Trump ally whose candidacy for governor has revived anxieties about hard-right nominees who narrowly lost statewide races.
Meanwhile, the political coalition Turning Point helped build faces new strains largely beyond the organization’s control. Polls show that young voters, whose sharp shift toward Trump in 2024 further elevated Kirk’s stature within the party, have soured on the president.
Turning Point spokesman Andrew Kolvet acknowledged the movement is facing headwinds, “and that’s especially true among young voters.”
“They are telling us they are worried about housing, affordability, foreign policy, etc.,” Kolvet said. “But if anyone has the political talent and ability to address their needs, wants and concerns directly ahead of the midterms, it’s President Trump and JD Vance.”
Kirk founded Turning Point USA in 2012 at age 18. What began as a nonprofit for young conservatives eventually grew into a sprawling, multimillion-dollar network that touched all aspects of American politics, including faith, culture, schools, voter registration, candidate endorsements and campaign fundraising.
But Turning Point also served as a massive platform for Kirk himself. His podcast and viral confrontations with liberals on college campuses made him one of the right’s most visible personalities, while his relationships across the movement bridged some of the divides within Trump’s MAGA coalition.
That part of Turning Point has proved difficult to replace.
Clips from Kirk’s podcast, now hosted by Kolvet, rarely draw the YouTube audiences they once did. Others have tried, with mixed success, to re-create the virality of his campus debates. And the right-wing online ecosystem where Kirk served as connective tissue between competing factions has frayed during Trump’s second term.
Turning Point’s leaders privately acknowledge there is no replacing Kirk, who will be honored one year after his death at Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas on Thursday. Instead, they have focused on what they can preserve and expand: the organization he built around himself.
“Yes, we don’t have Charlie’s social media anymore, which is a big loss. And we don’t have his voice — huge deal,” a person involved in the organization told CNN. “But the actual machinery of Turning Point has never been bigger.”
As evidence, they pointed to a recent training for 150 new staffers. Online job boards show dozens of openings to work for Turning Point in battleground states.
“We’re going to be even bigger this election than we were in 2024,” Bowyer said.
Political memorabilia adorns the shelves of Bowyer’s office — a Calvin Coolidge pendant, a bust of Teddy Roosevelt, and a framed print of Newsweek’s never-published 2016 “Madam President” cover of Hillary Clinton next to Time’s cover featuring Trump as Person of the Year.
Among them is a painting of Kirk, whose face is inescapable throughout Turning Point’s Arizona campus.
There, Bowyer oversees the organization’s voter turnout machine — the “pinnacle” of Kirk’s legacy, as he described it.
“It’s kind of like the Super Bowl,” Bowyer said. “It’s pointless to educate hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of young people, for them just to go, ‘Oh, you know, don’t use that.’ Right?”
He added, “Charlie really believes in that,” slipping into present tense to describe his deceased friend and former leader — not for the only time during a 90-minute interview with CNN.
Bowyer is now expanding a program piloted in the 2024 election. Then, the group embedded staff and volunteers in neighborhoods throughout Arizona to mobilize potential Republican voters. Rather than send canvassers to knock on as many doors as possible, Turning Point instructed its organizers to make genuine connections, build relationships, show up at local events and, at least initially, avoid talking politics.
It’s a strategy built around quality, not quantity, Bowyer argues.
By Election Day, organizers are expected to have a plan for getting their assigned households — about 600 to 1,000 people — to the polls or to vote by mail. “Ballot chasers” are tasked with ensuring they follow through. Each organizer’s goal is to turn out about half their designated voters — a much higher threshold than traditional canvassers.
The effectiveness of the operation is difficult to measure, and there are Republican skeptics, including within Trump’s own political operation. But Turning Point emerged from 2024 with a compelling result to point to: Trump won Arizona by 5.5 percentage points, his largest victory of all the battleground states.
The victory emboldened Turning Point to double down in 2026. Even before the midterm map had fully taken shape, the organization was deploying staff and hiring in key battleground states. Maps of those states line the walls inside Turning Point Action’s headquarters with heat maps of voters and detailed breakdowns on “chaseable votes.”
This spring, the operation had a dry run when it joined the White House’s retribution campaign against Republican lawmakers in Indiana who resisted Trump’s calls to redraw the state’s congressional boundaries. Trump-backed challengers defeated seven of the eight GOP holdouts.
Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith, a Trump ally, said Turning Point mobilized quickly despite little history in his state and noted the group left behind manpower for future political battles.
“The proof is in the pudding. Critics could say, ‘This is the first year. What good are they going to do?’” Beckwith said. “I don’t know how you break down the pie chart of who deserves credit, but we won and won in a big way.”
Republican operatives in key states say Turning Point is already making its presence felt. Former New Hampshire GOP Chairman Chris Ager said the group arrived on the ground far earlier than usual for a grassroots organization, hired experienced local activists and their visibility has been “extremely high.”
Jason Roe, a veteran Michigan strategist, said Turning Point’s organizers have been more “engaged and impactful” than the college-age men and women he typically encounters in groups for young Republican.
“Turning Point is made up of true believers,” Roe said. “They’re griding because they care, not because it’s the first step on a journey to getting involved in politics.”
In Iowa, Turning Point’s growing influence has already been tested against the most powerful endorsement in Republican politics.
The organization supported businessman and farmer Zach Lahn in the state’s closely watched Republican primary for governor. Trump backed Rep. Randy Feenstra.
Lahn won.
“We were so busy talking about the Trump endorsement,” said Jeff Angelo, a prominent conservative radio host in Iowa, “that we missed the most important endorsement: Turning Point Action.”
No one needs less convincing of Turning Point’s sway with GOP voters than Julie Spilsbury.
Last year, Bowyer made it his stated mission to oust Spilsbury, a registered Republican who supported Kamala Harris for president over Trump, from the City Council in Mesa, where he resides. Turning Point helped lead an effort to recall her, and in December 2025, Spilsbury lost the seat she had held for five years by about 700 votes.
“It was devastating and heartbreaking and made a lot of people mad,” she said.
Spilsbury considers herself a casualty of Turning Point’s growing clout in the Arizona GOP — and what she and others described as its vindictive approach to intraparty politics. The organization has aggressively intervened in primaries and endorsed dozens of candidates, stacking up wins and bruising fellow Republicans along the way.
The clashes have become increasingly public. Bowyer faced blowback in July after he questioned on X whether Arizona state Rep. Quang Nguyen, a Republican who escaped communist Vietnam as a child, can speak English. When Republican state Rep. Nick Kupper came to Nguyen’s defense, Bowyer threatened to back a challenger against Kupper in 2028 and later announced Turning Point was withdrawing its endorsement.
Reached by CNN via email, Kupper declined to revisit the episode. Attempts to reach Nguyen through his office were unsuccessful.
Such tactics might go overlooked by Republicans in the Trump era if Turning Point was consistently turning its primary success into general election wins. In Arizona, it has not.
The organization played a key role in the unsuccessful 2022 campaigns of Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters. Lake lost a Senate race two years later.
A Turning Point official noted the organization didn’t endorse Lake in her primaries but jumped in to help after she became the GOP nominee. Still, Bowyer contended they were “on the path for Kari to win” in 2022. The lesson from the loss, he argued, was that the organization needed more manpower.
“If we would have kept going and chased more votes, I think we could have won,” he said. Lake lost the governor’s race by roughly 17,000 votes.
The defeats have spread to far smaller Arizona contests. Earlier this year, Turning Point jumped into races for the Salt River Project, a local utility board whose elections typically draw little public attention. The group’s involvement drove a surge in turnout from both sides, but clean-energy candidates ultimately won a majority of seats for the first time in recent memory.
The Turning Point official argued that the group secured the two most critical positions leading the board “amid national headwinds that have impacted local races.” But progressives claimed victory after the election, and even local Republicans have acknowledged the board’s leftward turn was a significant setback.
“I think (Turning Point) is bombing hard, and it’s excellent for everyone else. I hesitate to say too much because we don’t want them to stop,” said Autumn Johnson, executive director of the Arizona Solar Energy Industries Association. “They have absolutely no idea what they’re doing, and they don’t know they don’t know what they’re doing. And it turns out a lot of people hate them.”
Their presence is causing divisions within the GOP at a time when the party is losing power across the state, argued Nick Myers, a member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, a state utility board. A Turning Point-backed challenger defeated Myers in a primary earlier this year. He said he lost the organization’s support after a back-and-forth on X with Bowyer a few years ago.
“As soon as they started getting involved, Republicans started losing,” Myers said. “It’s not because we’re becoming a purple state. Voters can’t stand the candidates Turning Point is nominating. Their days are limited if they don’t start putting up candidates who can win.”
The organization is betting on Biggs, the gubernatorial nominee, to reverse the party’s recent fortunes. The Turning Point official noted that Biggs was one of Kirk’s final and most passionate endorsements, viewing him as “a transformational and generational leader for Arizona — somebody who could turn Arizona into the Florida of the West.”
Bowyer said Biggs is a more seasoned politician than his predecessors and is better positioned to take on Katie Hobbs, the nation’s most vulnerable Democratic governor this year. Turning Point is now more experienced in campaign work, too, he added.
Some Republicans in Arizona view the race as a referendum on Turning Point as much as Biggs. Barrett Marson, a longtime GOP operative in Arizona, said if Biggs wins, many Republicans expect Turning Point to effectively take over the state GOP. A loss, though, would have its own consequences.
“Turning Point is all in on two people: Andy Biggs and JD Vance,” Marson said. “If both of those guys lose their upcoming elections, I predict they won’t be around much after 2028.”
Turning Point recently doubled its staff in Iowa and is rapidly deploying organizers in New Hampshire ahead of key midterm races in both states. When the elections are over, the teams will remain — and wait for Vance to make a decision.
Erika Kirk sent one of the first shockwaves through the 2028 presidential race in December when she endorsed Vance — getting ahead not only of the vice president, but of Trump, who is widely expected to play a decisive role in choosing his successor. Since then, Turning Point has set out to demonstrate that a turnkey organization will be waiting for Vance if he launches a White House bid.
Ager, the former New Hampshire party chairman, said Turning Point could present a “significant organizational advantage out of the gate” for Vance in 2028 when Republicans there vote in the GOP’s first presidential primary. Iowa, meanwhile, will hold the party’s first nominating contest.
“It’s still up to the candidate to convince voters,” he said. “But a good organization absolutely helps.”
Vance has remained close to Turning Point, appearing at several events and guest-hosting Kirk’s podcast.
The mutual loyalty is “downstream of the genuine close friendship that JD had with Charlie,” a source close to the vice president told CNN. Kirk helped propel Vance within the party and into his current role.
Though he remains reticent to publicly discuss his political future, Vance privately views Turning Point’s support as a key to his future ambitions, the source said. The organization offers Vance a connection to “America First” stalwarts in Trump’s coalition and a well-funded political infrastructure separate from the president’s political operation.
“They are specifically a MAGA power center, versus a traditional power center,” the source said. “They are distinctly different from the old guard establishment that wouldn’t necessarily support JD, and that serves as a true home for the MAGA voters.”
Bowyer said he expects Vance to closely watch the midterm results before he finalizes his plans. But he added, “If people want you to run, and you decide not to run, you usually don’t ever get a chance to run again.”
For Turning Point, delivering Republican victories this fall, particularly in Arizona, would give Vance reason to trust the organization Kirk left behind could help carry him to the White House.
Failure would bring its own reckoning, and Bowyer said Turning Point would judge itself more harshly than any outside critic if the group fell short.
Said Bowyer: “Charlie felt that way.”
CNN’s Alayna Treene contributed to this report.