2026-10-10T10:30:45.639Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/10/politics/trump-may-cost-the-gop-the-senate-majority-again
唐纳德·特朗普总统很可能已经在2020年和2022年两届选举中让共和党错失了参议院多数席位。
2020年那场选举中，就连特朗普本人都承认，他那场“盗窃选举”的造势活动可能打击了关键的佐治亚州决选的投票率。而在2022年，特朗普为共和党提名了一批质量低劣的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）派候选人，这些经他背书的候选人最终输掉了本可拿下的多个席位。
2026年这种情况还会重演吗？
可能性看起来确实存在。而近期的一系列事态更让这一阴影愈发逼近。
最典型的例子就是得克萨斯州的参议院选举。不过特朗普也让共和党在佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州保住席位的局面变得更加艰难。
目前尚不清楚特朗普的干预是否会改变任何一场选举的最终结果。但如果参议院多数席位的争夺势均力敌，共和党可能会再次为特朗普的一系列操作感到懊悔。
特朗普本周表示，他对在5月决选中支持州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿而非参议员约翰·科宁“毫无悔意”。但共和党内部的许多人恐怕不会这么认为。
自那场激烈的决选以来，帕克斯顿一直未能修复自身形象，近期的多项民调显示，他的支持率实际上较当时进一步下滑。在大多数民调中，他的支持率落后反对党选民好感度达两位数——近期的两项民调显示差距约为20个百分点，而在三轮不同的民调中，他均落后民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科多达6个百分点。
科宁当下也并非受欢迎的政客。考虑到民主党在阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦和俄亥俄等红色州的竞争力不断增强，科宁本也可能面临选举风险。但帕克斯顿的问题显而易见且十分严重：福克斯新闻近期的一项民调显示，在3月初初选中支持科宁的潜在选民中，有20%将投票给塔拉里科。
（科宁至今都没有表态支持帕克斯顿。美国有线电视新闻网的帕特里克·斯维特克周五报道了一段泄露的音频，帕克斯顿在私下里称科宁希望他输掉选举。）
从特朗普嘲笑帕克斯顿的外貌、穿着和讲话方式来看，就连他似乎也相当清楚帕克斯顿作为候选人的短板。帕克斯顿还有其他诸多包袱，包括曾遭弹劾以及面临刑事指控。
初选结束后，舆论普遍认为，尽管科宁曾温和批评过特朗普，但特朗普大概率会背书科宁，因为科宁更有可能保住这个席位。特朗普也曾表示将“很快”进行背书。
但随后特朗普就……没了动静。数周后，在帕克斯顿即将赢得决选之际，特朗普转而支持他，并敲定了这一支持。
如果帕克斯顿落败且民主党仅以微弱优势占据参议院多数席位，那么特朗普当时未背书科宁的决定可能会成为2026年选举的关键转折点。
当然，被特朗普挤走的共和党参议员不止科宁一人。
北卡罗来纳州参议员汤姆·蒂利斯曾公开表示，特朗普的攻击促使他萌生退意。在他的新书中，蒂利斯回忆起自己在特朗普在社交媒体上攻击他并称正在寻找其他候选人后，当即决定退休的经过。
“收到了，总统先生，”蒂利斯在给特朗普的短信中写道，“现在正是开始寻找我的继任者的好时机。”
特朗普回复道：“我已经在找了！DJT。”
这对共和党来说结果并不理想。蒂利斯退出了竞选，随后受欢迎的民主党前州长罗伊·库珀宣布参选。如今，尽管特朗普在该州的三次选举中均拿下了北卡罗来纳州，但共和党似乎已经放弃了这里。
蒂利斯在当前的选举环境下本也可能艰难应对库珀的挑战，但前提是库珀真的参选。而且蒂利斯至少还能凭借现任议员身份获得优势。
毫无疑问，他会比共和党推举的候选人——前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利更具竞争力。沃特利在埃尔姆大学和福克斯新闻近期的权威民调中支持率均落后于反对党。
早在6月，特朗普就决定在共和党参议院决选中支持佐治亚州众议员迈克·柯林斯，而非前田纳西大学橄榄球教练德里克·杜利。考虑到柯林斯是更坚定的MAGA派候选人，而杜利得到了曾与特朗普时有摩擦的佐治亚州州长布莱恩·坎普的背书，这一选择似乎合情合理。
但即便在当时，柯林斯过往的一些争议就已表明他可能会成为有问题的候选人。而随着近期一系列关于柯林斯与白人至上主义者存在明显关联的爆料浮出水面，情况变得更糟。
民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫颇受欢迎，因此杜利原本几乎不可能让这场选举具备竞争力。但和北卡罗来纳州的情况一样，特朗普的决定可能敲定了选举结果。同样，也有迹象表明共和党可能已经放弃了佐治亚州的这场选举。
最新加入这份名单的州，共和党其实未必会输掉，但南卡罗来纳州同样带来了不必要的麻烦。
特朗普在2024年以18个百分点的优势拿下了该州，而近期该州党内存在不少担忧情绪。共和党最近决定投入500万美元，以巩固任命的参议员达琳·格雷厄姆在对阵民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯的选举中的优势。而特朗普最近在社交媒体上用反变性人的 slur（ slur此处为歧视性蔑称）攻击安德鲁斯。
格雷厄姆是已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹，今年7月特朗普背书她接替其兄长出任参议员时，她几乎毫无知名度。随后两人都决定让她竞选连任。尽管期间出现了一些极不稳定的状况，但她凭借特朗普的背书赢得了初选决选。
跳过多位等待参议院席位空缺多年的资深政客，提拔一名政坛新人，这一做法并未获得党内建制派的认可。甚至还有共和党选民讨论要将众议员拉尔夫·诺曼写入选票，诺曼在初选中以微弱劣势输给了格雷厄姆。
目前尚不清楚这场选举的胶着程度；我们还在等待权威民调结果。但特朗普强行将格雷厄姆推给本党从一开始就很奇怪。特朗普似乎几乎没有理由介入这场选举。
而如今共和党正为此付出代价。
尤其令人震惊的是，特朗普及其政治团队此前早已经历过这一切。他们本应知道提名不合格候选人的弊端，因为这类做法此前已让他们付出了代价。他们本应清楚特朗普的行动让保住参议院席位变得更加困难。
有大量证据表明，特朗普在试图推翻2020年选举结果时的闹剧，让共和党在2021年1月5日的佐治亚州决选中失利。保守派占多数的地区投票率不成比例地下降。在此之前，共和党在佐治亚州决选中几乎总能取得进展，但那次却出现了倒退。
特朗普后来在一次采访中也承认，共和党选民因为所谓的选民欺诈（其实基本上是他凭空捏造的）而失去了投票热情。他还表示，自己当时因为愤怒，没有像本可以做到的那样强烈敦促共和党选民信任佐治亚州的选举官员。
由于2021年1月6日决选后数小时发生的事件，特朗普并未为此真正承担责任。但令人震惊的是，他如此坦诚地承认，自己或许在让共和党错失参议院多数席位一事上发挥了作用——即便他认为自己这么做是出于正当理由。
然而，他在2022年仍做出了一系列令人费解的背书决定。而如今，这种情况在一定程度上再次上演。
当然，2026年的不同之处在于，作为总统，特朗普必须与掌控参议院多数席位的任何人共事。
The possibility that Trump will cost the GOP the Senate is coming into focus
2026-10-10T10:30:45.639Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/10/politics/trump-may-cost-the-gop-the-senate-majority-again
President Donald Trump might well have cost Republicans the Senate majority in both 2020 and 2022.
In the former, even Trump himself has allowed that his stolen-election crusade might have damaged turnout in the decisive Georgia runoffs. And in the latter, Trump saddled his party with a number of shoddy MAGA candidates he endorsed who went on to lose very winnable seats.
Could it happen again in 2026?
It’s certainly looking possible. And recent developments make this specter loom larger.
The biggest example is the Senate race in Texas. But Trump has also made things more difficult for his party to hold seats in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.
It’s not clear that Trump’s involvement will have changed the ultimate result of any of them. But if the battle for the majority is tight, the party could certainly be ruing some of Trump’s maneuvers — again.
Trump said this week that he had “no regrets” about backing state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in their May runoff. But the same probably can’t be said for many in his party.
Paxton still hasn’t repaired his image since that brutal runoff, and some recent polls suggest he’s actually lost ground since then. His image is double-digits underwater in most polls — including by around 20 points in a pair of recent polls — and he’s trailed Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points in three different polls now.
Cornyn isn’t a popular politician right now, either. And judging by how competitive Democrats have been in red states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, it’s possible he could have been vulnerable, too. But Paxton’s problems are big and evident for everyone to see: A recent Fox News poll showed Talarico is winning 20% of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March primary.
(Cornyn has avoided supporting Paxton to this day. And CNN’s Patrick Svitek reported Friday on leaked audio of Paxton privately claiming Cornyn wants him to lose.)
Even Trump seems to be quite aware of Paxton’s shortcomings as a candidate, judging by how he has mocked the way he looks, dresses, and speaks. Paxton has a bunch of other baggage as well, including an impeachment and criminal charges.
The conventional wisdom after the primary was that Trump was likely to endorse Cornyn, despite Cornyn having gently criticized Trump at times, because Cornyn had a better chance of holding the seat. Trump said an endorsement was coming “soon.”
But then Trump just … didn’t. Weeks later, when Paxton was about to win the runoff, Trump got on-board with him and sealed the deal.
If Paxton loses and the Democrats have a bare majority, that non-endorsement of Cornyn might emerge as the pivotal moment of the 2026 election.
Cornyn isn’t the only Senate Republican that Trump nudged aside, of course.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has spoken openly about how Trump’s attacks pushed him towards the exits. In his new book, he recalls how he decided to retire right after Trump attacked him on social media and said he was looking for other candidates.
“Ack Mr. President,” he texted Trump, according to the book. “Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement.”
Trump responded: “I am! DJT.”
That hasn’t worked out so well for the GOP. Tillis got out, and then popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper got in. Today, it looks like the GOP might be giving up on North Carolina, despite Trump having carried it in all three of his elections.
Tillis might well have struggled against Cooper in this environment, too. But that’s if Cooper actually challenged him. And Tillis would at least have benefited from incumbency.
There’s little doubt he’d have proven more formidable than the man the GOP rallied around, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Whatley’s image has been underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News.
Back in June, Trump decided to back Georgia Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP Senate runoff. And it made sense, given Collins was the more MAGA candidate, and Dooley was backed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who has at times tangled with Trump.
But even at the time, it was pretty clear Collins could be a problematic candidate, given some of his past controversies. And it’s only gotten worse since then, with a series of disclosures about Collins’s apparent ties to white nationalists.
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is quite popular, so it’s perhaps unlikely Dooley would have made the race competitive. But as with North Carolina, Trump probably sealed the deal. And as with North Carolina, there are signs the GOP might be throwing in the towel.
The latest addition to this list is one that Republicans likely won’t actually lose. But South Carolina is proving an unnecessary headache all the same.
Amid some fretting in the state, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, the GOP recently decided to spend $5 million to shore up appointed Sen. Darline Graham in her race against Democrat Annie Andrews. And Trump recently decided to attack Andrews on social media using an anti-transgender slur.
Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was plucked from almost total obscurity when Trump backed her for the appointment to replace her brother in July. Then, both decided she should run for a full term, too. She won the primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement, despite some very unsteady moments.
Elevating a neophyte over a bunch of more established politicians who had spent years waiting for a Senate vacancy didn’t go over well with the party establishment. And there has even been some talk of GOP voters writing in Rep. Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost the primary to Graham.
It’s not totally clear how close the race is; we’re waiting for quality polling. But Trump’s move to foist Graham upon his party was weird from the outset. There seemed to be little reason for Trump to get involved.
And now the party is dealing with the consequences of that.
What’s particularly striking about all this is that Trump and his political operation have been through this before. They should know the drawbacks of nominating bad candidates, because it’s cost them in previous years. They should know that Trump’s actions have made winning Senate seats more difficult.
There was plenty of evidence that Trump’s antics in trying to overturn the 2020 election cost the party those Georgia runoffs held on January 5, 2021. Turnout dropped disproportionately in heavily conservative areas. The GOP had almost always gained ground in Georgia runoffs until then, but it actually lost ground.
And Trump even acknowledged in a later interview that GOP voters were turned off because of the supposed voter fraud (that he basically conjured out of thin air). He also said that he didn’t urge them to trust Georgia election officials as strongly as he could have, because he was angry.
Trump was spared a true reckoning on this because of the events that transpired in hours after the runoffs, on January 6, 2021. But it was striking to see him so forthrightly acknowledge that maybe he played a role in costing his party the Senate majority — even if he thinks he did it for legitimate reasons.
Yet, he still proceeded in 2022 to make a bunch of curious endorsement decisions. And now it’s happening again, to some extent.
The difference in 2026, of course, is that Trump actually has to deal as president with whomever holds the Senate majority.