2026-04-02 下午4:00 美东时间 / CNN
作者：亚当·坎克里恩
唐纳德·特朗普总统曾多次试图通过告诉投资者他们迫切想听的话来压制飙升的油价：伊朗战争即将结束。
但在连续数周听到这番说辞后，尽管战事仍在持续，霍尔木兹海峡也没有重新开放的计划，投资者们越来越多地不再理会特朗普的言论。
就在特朗普突然宣布与伊朗进行“富有成效”的会谈，给石油市场带来过早的乐观情绪近两周后，能源分析师和交易员表示，总统试图通过口头说服投资者压低油价的做法已经消耗了他的公信力，并让市场相信这场战争的经济后果只会愈发严重。
“过去两周来，他一直在重复类似的说法，”政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团负责伊朗和能源领域的高级分析师格雷戈里·布鲁说道。“但他所说的内容毫无意义，因为战争还在继续，伊朗根本不吃这一套。”
特朗普周三再次声称伊朗正在寻求停火后，连日来被各种假消息折腾得筋疲力尽的石油市场几乎没有任何反应。当晚，特朗普坚称战争“即将结束”，但他随后宣布将升级美国的轰炸行动，并将重新开放海峡的任务交给其他国家，这番言论很快盖过了之前的表态。
此后油价飙升逾11%——这一剧烈波动可能会将汽油价格推高至每加仑4美元以上，加剧民众的燃油负担焦虑，而这种焦虑可能会在11月的国会中期选举中让特朗普和共和党失去议会控制权。
在能源行业内部，官员们如今已开始准备迎接持续数月的高油价和高天然气价格，无论特朗普最终以何种方式、何时决定从战争中抽身。因为全球石油库存遭受的破坏已不可逆转，并在各大洲之间产生连锁反应。
大约一个月前，伊朗报复性关闭霍尔木兹海峡已经引发了大规模经济冲击，但全球经济面临的压力才刚刚显现。中东主要产油设施为避免波斯湾内原油积压而削减了产量，如果海峡航运恢复正常，这些设施需要数月时间才能恢复产能。
尽管特朗普在周三的黄金时段演讲中声称，美国拥有大量石油储备，因此不受此次危机的影响，但席卷全球的能源危机仍势必会让美国人在各类商品和服务上花费更多——从化肥到航班，再到塑料制品。即使特朗普立即从中东撤军，投资者也认为油价可能需要数月甚至数年才能回到战前水平。
交易员周四上午在纽约证券交易所交易大厅工作。
迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社
唐纳德·特朗普总统周三在白宫十字大厅发表关于伊朗战争的讲话后离开。
亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社
“我们的石油供应系统已经损失了大量原油，”撰写能源通讯《大宗商品背景》的石油市场研究员罗里·约翰斯顿说道。他估算，截至目前，这场冲突已造成约5亿桶原油的损失。
“在任何情景下，我都看不到我们能在比开战前更健康的环境中结束这场战争，”他补充道。
这一严峻的经济现实令特朗普的盟友们感到警觉，他们原本就对参战的政治风险感到担忧。这也促使他们不断寻求新的方法，以减轻油价上涨对美国的影响。
一些特朗普的朋友和盟友意识到，总统仅凭口头言论打压市场的能力已经减弱，他们敦促特朗普尽快结束战争，将注意力重新放回中期选举前左右选民看法的国内议题上。
尽管白宫坚称战斗一结束，汽油价格就会“暴跌”，但政府官员私下里的态度却有所不同。据参与相关讨论的一位人士透露，官员们已向行业代表施压，询问美国企业在未来几个月内是否有新的石油资源可以开发。但这些对话几乎没有带来任何有希望的进展。
“毫无疑问，这目前已经产生了负面影响，”特朗普前经济顾问斯蒂芬·摩尔在谈及战争对美国经济的拖累时说道。“所以这场战争必须尽快结束。”
白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示，特朗普的“能源主导议程让我们做好了应对当前局势的准备”。
“总统明确表示，‘史诗怒火行动’已进入最后阶段，我们正在快速实现军事目标，”她说道。“与此同时，本届政府已采取多项重大行动，缓解短期 disruption（注：原文如此，应为“中断”）并稳定能源市场。”
尽管如此，那些曾经对特朗普的每一句话都深信不疑的交易员和分析师们，如今已不太愿意相信他的乐观表态，因为他们看到了更多真实的现实影响。
如果特朗普宣布胜利并在未来几周内撤离中东，却不重新开放海峡，他实际上将把全球五分之一的石油供应拱手让给伊朗。这将让伊朗政权获得比战前更稳固的财政基础，允许伊朗对使用海峡的油轮收取高额通行费，并决定哪些国家的船只可以通过。
分析师预测，在这种情况下，油价预计将在战后很长一段时间内维持在每桶90美元以上，比冲突爆发前的价格高出约三分之一。
但其他选项可能会带来更糟糕的结果。如果特朗普转而选择升级局势，兑现其轰炸伊朗能源基础设施的威胁，将立即加剧石油短缺，并引发广泛的报复担忧——这可能会彻底摧毁全球能源贸易，推高油价至前所未有的高位。
无论哪种情况，能源专家都表示，油价将持续远高于今年早些时候美国享有的每桶60美元的水平——而在这个节骨眼上，特朗普的任何保证都不太可能改变这一局面。
“我认为我们再也回不到战前的汽油价格了，至少今年不行，可能几年内都不行，”穆迪 Analytics 首席经济学家马克·赞迪说道。“随着每一天的过去，敌对行动持续的时间越长，造成的破坏就越严重。”
唐纳德·特朗普总统周三在白宫十字大厅发表关于伊朗战争的讲话后离开。
亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社
周二，美国国会大厦附近的一个加油站展示了每加仑5美元以上的汽油价格。
安德鲁·哈尼克/盖蒂图片社
除非突然出现外交突破，否则这些情景都无法保证霍尔木兹海峡会完全重新开放——而这一发展可能会彻底改变全球石油流动的格局。
特朗普高级官员越来越多地承认，在可预见的未来，霍尔木兹海峡仍将处于伊朗控制之下，这可能为第二次武力夺取海峡的行动埋下伏笔，这将进一步增加中断风险，却无法更高程度地保证成功。
特朗普周三晚间在言论中摇摆不定：一方面坚称战后海峡会“自然开放”，另一方面又敦促美国盟友动用武力负责重新开放海峡。
“困难的部分已经完成，所以这应该很容易，”他曾如此说道。
但这并未让行业官员感到多少宽慰，他们指出，就连特朗普自己的军方似乎也不同意这一说法；据参与相关讨论的人士透露，美国官员仍在评估，海峡对美国海军开始护航油轮来说仍然过于危险。
“如果这场战争只打了三四天，那么油价会大幅上涨，然后会急剧下跌，”布鲁说道。“但我们已经远远超出了这个阶段，因为霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭了一个多月，而且近期重新开放海峡的可信度非常低。”
Energy markets start tuning Trump out after repeated Iran war whiplash
2026-04-02 4:00 PM ET / CNN
By Adam Cancryn
President Donald Trump has repeatedly sought to tamp down the surging price of oil by telling investors what they’re eager to hear: The war in Iran is almost over.
But after hearing that message for weeks, with fighting ongoing and no plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, they’re increasingly tuning him out.
Nearly two weeks after Trump’s sudden declaration of “productive” talks with Iran sent a premature jolt of optimism through the oil markets, energy analysts and traders say the president’s attempts to jawbone investors into lowering prices have cost him his credibility — and convinced them that the war’s economic consequences are only set to worsen.
“He’s now been saying a version of the same thing for the last two weeks,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst on Iran and the energy sector at political risk firm Eurasia Group. “But what he’s talking about doesn’t matter, because he’s continuing the war and the Iranians aren’t buying it.”
After Trump again claimed Wednesday that Iran was seeking a ceasefire, oil markets exhausted by days of head fakes barely reacted. And that night, Trump’s insistence that the war was “nearly complete” was quickly overshadowed by his vow to intensify the US’ bombing campaign and then leave it to other countries to try to reopen the strait.
Oil prices have since surged more than 11% in response — a sharp move likely to push the cost of gas beyond the $4-per-gallon level and deepen the affordability concerns that threaten to cost Trump and Republicans control of Congress come November.
Within the energy industry, officials are now preparing for several more months of elevated oil and gas prices regardless of how and when Trump eventually decides to withdraw from the war, as the damage to global stockpiles becomes irreversible and reverberates across continents.
Iran’s retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz roughly a month ago has already caused a massive economic shock, but the strain on economies around the world is just beginning. Key Middle East production facilities that cut output to avoid a pileup of oil in the Persian Gulf will need months to ramp back up if and when traffic through the strait returns to normal.
And while Trump during Wednesday’s primetime address claimed the US is insulated from the fallout due to its own vast stores of oil, the energy crisis rippling through the rest of the world is still bound to make all manner of goods and services — from fertilizer to flights to plastic products — more expensive for Americans. Even if Trump pulled out of the Middle East immediately, investors believe it could take months or even years to see oil return to pre-war prices.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on Thursday.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
President Donald Trump departs after speaking about the Iran war from the Cross Hall of the White House on Wednesday.
Alex Brandon/AP
“We’ve lost huge amounts of oil from the system,” said Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher who writes the energy newsletter Commodity Context. He pegged the cost of the conflict so far at roughly a half-billion barrels of oil.
“In no scenario do I see us exiting this war in a healthier environment than we began it,” he added.
The stark economic reality has alarmed Trump allies who were already concerned about the political risks of going to war. It has prompted an ongoing search for fresh ways to blunt the impact on US prices.
Some Trump friends and allies — aware of the president’s diminished ability to simply talk the markets down — have urged him to wrap up the war as soon as possible and shift his attention back to the domestic concerns shaping voters’ views ahead of the midterm elections.
And despite the White House’s insistence that gas prices will “plummet” as soon as the fighting ends, administration officials have signaled differently in private. They’ve pressed industry representatives over whether US companies have any new sources of oil they can tap in the coming months, a person involved in the discussions said. Those conversations have yielded little in the way of promising leads.
“It’s having a negative effect now for sure,” Stephen Moore, a former economic adviser to Trump, said of the war’s drag on the US economy. “So it’s got to get over with as quickly as possible.”
In a statement, White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said Trump’s “energy dominance agenda prepared us to meet this moment.”
“The President made clear that the Operation Epic Fury is in its final stages and we are quickly achieving our military goals,” she said. “In the meantime, the Administration has taken several significant actions to mitigate short-term disruptions and stabilize the energy markets.”
Still, among traders and analysts who once hung on Trump’s every word, there’s far less willingness to buy into his optimism now that they’re seeing more real-world impact.
If Trump declares victory and leaves the Middle East in the next few weeks without reopening the strait, he will effectively cede one-fifth of the world’s oil supply to Iran. That would put the regime on even stronger financial footing than before, allowing Iran to charge oil tankers a hefty toll to use the strait — and determine which country’s shipments get through.
Under that scenario, analysts project, oil prices are expected to remain above $90 per barrel well beyond the end of the war, or roughly one-third higher than where prices sat before the conflict began.
But other options could yield even worse outcomes. If Trump instead chooses to escalate and follow through on his threats to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, it would immediately worsen the oil shortage and fan fears of widespread retaliation — which could effectively shatter the global energy trade and push prices to never-before-seen highs.
Either way, energy experts said, oil prices are going to stay significantly higher than the $60-per-barrel level the US enjoyed earlier this year — and no amount of reassurances from Trump is likely to change that at this point.
“I don’t think there’s any going back to pre-war gas prices, at least not this year and probably not for a couple years,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “With each passing day, and the longer the hostilities continue, the more damage is done.”
President Donald Trump departs after speaking about the Iran war from the Cross Hall of the White House on Wednesday.
Alex Brandon/AP
Gas prices over five dollars a gallon are displayed at gas station near the US Capitol on Tuesday.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Barring a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, those scenarios also provide little assurance that the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen — a development that could dramatically alter the way oil flows around the world.
Top Trump officials have increasingly acknowledged that the strait will remain under Iranian control for the foreseeable future, potentially setting the stage for a second operation to seize it that would raise the odds of yet more disruption without any greater guarantee of success.
Trump on Wednesday night careened between insisting that the strait would “open up naturally” after the war and urging US allies to take responsibility for reopening it by force.
“The hard part is done, so it should be easy,” he said at one point.
Yet that’s offered little comfort to industry officials who have noted that even Trump’s own military doesn’t appear to concur; US officials have continued to assess that the strait is far too dangerous for the US Navy to begin escorting tankers, according to people involved in the discussions.
“Had the war been three or four days, then there would’ve been a sharp price increase and then a very sharp price fall,” said Brew. “But we’re way past that given that Hormuz has been shut now for over a month, and given that the credibility of Hormuz reopening any time soon is very suspect.”