2026年4月22日 / 美国东部时间上午9:47 / 哥伦比亚广播公司/美联社
或许很难想象伊朗战争会影响到“拥抱手套”“比兹金斯”“ wobblies”这类毛绒玩具，但当中东石油运输受阻时，就连毛绒玩具也无法幸免。
和许多软质玩具一样，佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡一家制造商开发的这类毛绒玩偶采用聚酯纤维和丙烯酸纤维制造，这些合成纤维都源自石油。阿莱尼品牌首席执行官里卡多·贝内加斯表示，战争爆发三周后，中国供应商就通知该公司，原材料成本已经上涨了10%至15%。
“这一情况充分说明石油在我们的体系中渗透得有多深，我们根本摆脱不了它，”去年创立阿莱尼品牌、目前正在拓展产品线的贝内加斯说道，“谁能想到玩具价格会和石油价格直接挂钩呢？”
受影响商品范围广泛
受波及的不止玩具。根据美国能源部的数据，由石油和天然气提炼的石化产品可用于制造超过6000种消费品。电脑键盘、口红、网球拍、睡衣、软性隐形眼镜、洗涤剂、口香糖、鞋子、蜡笔、剃须膏、枕头、阿司匹林、假牙、胶带、雨伞和尼龙吉他弦只是其中一小部分。
这场战争还威胁到全球氦气和铝的供应，而这两种材料是半导体芯片、医疗设备及其他日常用品的关键原材料。
对冲突区外的许多人来说，到目前为止，战争最切实且直接的影响是汽油价格飙升。由于航空公司应对航空燃油成本上涨，旅客也面临机票和航班附加费上涨。消费者可能会发现食品、家具或任何依靠柴油卡车运输的各类商品价格都更高了。
但原油不只是被提炼为燃料。它还会被加工成化学品、蜡、油脂和其他混合物，出现在大量日常用品中，包括大多数塑料和橡胶制品。石油衍生品也被广泛用于各类包装。贸易组织和部分企业表示，全球石油供应中断已进入第八周，生产成本上升可能会让购物者为商品支付更高价格。
拥有30年玩具行业从业经验的贝内加斯表示，他目前将自行承担原材料上涨的成本，但如果战争再持续三到六个月，预计到2027年初将提高对客户的售价。
哥伦比亚大学商学院气候经济学家格尔诺特·瓦格纳表示，全球石油消费中有85%以燃料形式使用，剩余部分则用于制造各类消费品。
相关科学原理
原油主要是由碳氢化合物组成的复杂混合物，这类化合物由碳原子和氢原子构成。炼油厂和化工厂会将其分离并分解，转化为更小的化学基本单元，也就是石化产品。
乙烯、丙烯、丁烯、苯、甲苯和二甲苯这六种石化产品是塑料以及尼龙、聚酯等合成材料的主要基础原料，制造商再用这些材料设计和生产各类产品。美国能源部补充道，汽车零部件、圆珠笔、窗帘、骰子、眼镜、肥料、高尔夫球、助听器、驱虫剂、皮划艇、行李箱、拖把和指甲油也都使用这类材料。
全球战略与管理咨询公司科尔尼合伙人兼化工业务全球主管安德鲁·瓦尔贝雷表示，原材料在许多制造商的生产成本中占比很高，为地毯、服装和轮胎等产品供应商的情况正是如此。
以一件纽扣衬衫为例，瓦尔贝雷估计，原材料成本占制造商生产成本的27%至30%。劳动力成本占10%至30%，其余部分则是营销、分销和管理相关的商业开支。
专家表示，如果未来几个月油价维持在每桶90美元以上，整个供应链的成本压力将加剧。
美国鞋类分销商和零售商协会首席执行官马特·普里斯特表示，该协会的大多数成员会保留两到三个月的成品库存，为应对原材料成本上涨提供临时缓冲。
该协会上月发布的一份关于美国鞋业“油价暴露度及对鞋类成本影响”的报告显示，合成鞋中约70%的材料属于石化基材料，其中30%的原材料成本直接与油价波动挂钩。
美国鞋类分销商和零售商协会的分析估计，从原材料、工厂能源到运输环节，石油成本上涨可能会导致消费者在夏末和秋季购买一双鞋的价格上涨1.5%至3%。
美国服装与鞋业协会执行副总裁内特·赫尔曼表示，到4月底，美国鞋类和服装制造商需要开始与供应商（大多在美国境外）签订聚酯短纤维和聚酯长丝纱线的采购合同，以确保相关设计产品能在假日购物季上架零售门店和电商平台。
赫尔曼称，每公斤（约合2.2磅）聚酯纺织品原材料的价格，从美以袭击伊朗前的平均90美分上涨到了每公斤1.33美元。他估计，每件服装的生产成本因此将增加10至15美分。
试图保护消费者
部分企业正在寻找抵消成本上涨的方法。
丽莎·莱恩是Rinseroo的创始人，该公司销售用于清洁、宠物美容和洗澡的便携式淋浴喷头、浴缸和水槽配件。她的制造商表示，再过30天成本将上涨30%，因此她最近将每月从中国采购的滑动式软管数量增加了两倍。她还有几天时间来决定是否签订为期三个月的预付款订单。
莱恩表示，Rinseroo产品的组件包括聚氯乙烯等石油衍生品。在采购了24万件产品（通常为8万件）后，她也在评估削减成本的方案。
莱恩表示，她希望暂缓提高向零售商的售价，因为Rinseroo去年已经提高过售价，以抵消对中国进口商品征收的更高关税。她举例称，一款用于浴缸清洗宠物的软管零售价已从29.95美元涨到了33.95美元。
“我们希望维持在消费者愿意继续购买、并觉得物有所值的最佳价位，”莱恩说道。
另一家向养老院和其他医疗机构销售绷带、敷料、护垫和海绵等伤口护理产品的公司，计划在几周内将产品价格提高15%。Gentell首席执行官戴维·纳瓦齐奥指出，产品中的粘合剂依赖多种石化产品。
纳瓦齐奥估计，包括生产能源和原材料在内，该公司的成本上涨了20%。
总部位于宾夕法尼亚州亚德利、主要制造基地位于多伦多的Gentell还为其他公司生产贴牌产品，包括一家为CVS等零售门店供货的医疗科技公司。
纳瓦齐奥表示，由于绷带和敷料是必需品，他认为提价不会影响公司业务。但战争结束、石油运输恢复稳定后，价格是否会回落则不太确定。
“过去我见过运输成本下降，但从未见过原材料价格下跌，”他说道。
It’s not just gasoline. U.S.-Iran war could drive prices higher for many products derived from petroleum.
April 22, 2026 / 9:47 AM EDT / CBS/AP
It might be hard to imagine the Iran war weighing on stuffed toys with names like Snuggle Glove, Bizzikins and Wobblies, but even plush playthings aren’t immune when oil shipments from the Middle East are constrained.
Like many soft toys, the creatures developed by a manufacturer in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, are made with polyester and acrylic, synthetic fibers derived from petroleum. Three weeks after the war started, suppliers in China notified Aleni Brands that getting the materials already was costing them 10% to 15% more, CEO Ricardo Venegas said.
“I think this situation demonstrates how much oil permeates throughout our system, and we can’t get away from it,” said Venegas, who founded Aleni Brands last year and is in the process of adding product lines. “Who would have thought that the price of a toy would have a direct relationship with oil?”
Wide range of items affected
It’s not just toys. Petrochemicals derived from oil and natural gas go into making more than 6,000 consumer products, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Computer keyboards, lipstick, tennis rackets, pajamas, soft contact lenses, detergent, chewing gum, shoes, crayons, shaving cream, pillows, aspirin, dentures, tape, umbrellas and nylon guitar strings are just a few of them.
The war is also threatening the world’s supply of helium and aluminum, key materials used in products such as semiconductor chips, medical equipment and other everyday goods.
So far, the war’s most tangible and immediate effect for many people outside the conflict zone has been spiking gasoline prices. Travelers also are seeing higher airfares and flight fees as airlines respond to the rising cost of jet fuel. Consumers may find themselves paying more for food, furniture or any of the myriad of goods transported by trucks that run on diesel.
But crude oil isn’t just refined as fuel. It gets turned into chemicals, waxes, oils and other mixtures that appear in a vast array of everyday items, including most made with plastic and rubber. Petroleum derivatives also are used in a lot of packaging. With disruptions to global oil supplies now in their eighth week, higher production costs also could make things more expensive for shoppers, according to trade groups and some companies.
Venegas, a 30-year toy industry veteran, said he would absorb higher material costs for now but expects to increase prices for customers by early 2027 if the war goes on another three to six months.
While 85% of global oil consumption is in the form of fuel, the rest goes into a wide range of consumer products, according to Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University’s School of Business.
The science involved
Crude oil is mostly a complex mixture of hydrocarbons, which are compounds made of carbon and hydrogen atoms. Refineries and chemical plants separate and break them down to convert them into smaller chemical building blocks known as petrochemicals.
Six petrochemicals – ethylene, propylene, butylene, benzene, toluene and xylenes – are the major foundations of plastics and synthetic materials like nylon and polyesters, which manufacturers in turn use to design and deliver products. More from the Department of Energy: Automobile parts, ballpoint pens, curtains, dice, eyeglasses, fertilizer, golf balls, hearing aids, insect repellant, kayaks, luggage, mops and nail polish.
Materials account for a big share of production costs for many manufacturers, including those that supply carpets, clothing and tires, according to Andrew Walberer, partner and global lead in the chemicals practice of global strategy and management consultancy Kearney.
Take a button-down shirt, for example. Walberer estimated that materials account for 27%-30% of how much it costs a manufacturer to make one. Labor costs contribute 10% to 30%. Business expenses tied to marketing, distribution and administration comprises the rest, he said.
Experts say if oil holds above $90 per barrel for the next several months, cost pressures will accelerate throughout the supply network.
Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America CEO Matt Priest said most of the trade organization’s members keep a two- to three-month inventory of finished products, providing a temporary cushion against higher materials costs.
Roughly 70% of the materials in synthetic shoes are petrochemical-based, and 30% of the costs for those materials are directly tied to oil price rate swings, according to a report the organization published last month on the U.S. footwear industry’s “exposure to oil prices & the impact on shoe costs.”
The FDRA analysis estimated that between materials, factory energy and transportation, companies paying more for petroleum could translate into a 1.5% to 3% increase in the price shoppers pay for a pair of shoes by late summer and the fall.
By the end of April, U.S. shoe and clothing manufacturers need to start signing contracts with suppliers, mostly outside the U.S., for orders of polyester staple fiber and polyester filament yarn to get their designs on retail shelves and online for the holiday shopping season, according to Nate Herman, executive vice president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association.
One kilogram, or a little over two pounds, of the materials used in polyester textiles, has increased in price from an average of 90 cents before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran to $1.33 per kilogram, Herman said. He estimated that each garment will cost 10 cents to 15 cents more to produce as a result.
Trying to shield consumers
Some businesses are looking for ways to offset rising costs.
Lisa Lane is the founder of Rinseroo, which sells portable shower head, bathtub and sink attachments for cleaning, pet grooming, and bathing. She recently tripled the number of the slip-on hoses she procures from China each month after her manufacturer said the cost would be 30% higher in another 30 days. She had a few days to decide whether to place a three-month advance order.
The components of Rinseroo’s products include petroleum derivatives like polyvinyl chloride, Lane said. After purchasing 240,000 units instead of her usual 80,000, she is also evaluating cost-cutting options.
Lane said she wants to hold off on increasing prices for retailers that sell the attachments since Rinseroo did that last year to offset higher U.S. tariffs on imports from China. For example, a hose for washing pets in a bathtub went up to $33.95 from $29.95 on retail websites, she said.
“We want to stay at that sweet spot where people want to continue to buy from us and feel like they’re getting a good value,” Lane said.
Another company, which sells wound care products like bandages, dressings, pads and sponges to nursing homes and other medical facilities, plans to raise its prices by 15% in a matter of weeks. Gentell CEO David Navazio noted that adhesives in the products rely on several petrochemicals.
Including energy for production and materials, Navazio estimated the company’s costs are going up by 20%.
Gentell, which is based in Yardley, Pennsylvania but has its main manufacturing location in Toronto, also makes private label products for other companies, including a medical technology firm that supplies retail stores like CVS.
Because bandages and dressings are necessities, Navazio said he doesn’t think his business will suffer if it raises customer prices. Less certain is whether prices will come down once the war ends and oil shipments stabilize.
“In the past, I’ve seen transportation costs come down, but I’ve never seen prices of raw material come down,” he said.