2026年4月23日，美国东部时间凌晨12:00 / CNN
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析
3月31日，洛杉矶市中心雪佛龙加油站展示的汽油价格牌。
杰·C·洪 美联社 摄
对于边给车加油边盯着油价跳涨的美国民众来说，这番话肯定听着不顺耳。
但特朗普政府辩称，一个只有投机者才熟知的晦涩概念证明，伊朗战争带来的经济冲击已基本结束。
这个概念叫做现货溢价（backwardation）。
这个晦涩术语指的是，大宗商品期货市场上，交割期限越近的合约价格越高，交割期限越远的合约价格越低。期货市场允许交易员现在锁定价格，在未来数月进行买卖。
这听起来不太靠谱。但这或许是本届政府为避免共和党在中期选举中惨败所能拿出的最佳说辞。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特重拾他前对冲基金经理的身份，试图在周三说服参议员们，未来一片光明。
“我认为，谈到汽油，目前原油市场处于能源行业所谓的大幅现货溢价状态——这意味着未来油价将远低于当前水平。”贝森特说道，“我认为冲突将会结束，我认为汽油价格将回落至战前水平，甚至可能更低。”
贝森特的论调存在三个问题。
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特于4月15日在华盛顿特区白宫詹姆斯·S·布雷迪新闻发布厅举行的新闻发布会上发言。
温·麦克纳米 盖蒂图片社 摄
首先，在全国汽油均价达到每加仑4美元之际，使用金融术语打比方，恰恰暴露了本届政府在民生负担问题上的麻木不仁——这是11月大选前选民最关心的议题。身居高位、过着与普通民众天差地别生活的内阁官员和总统，用这种方式解读美国人的日常困境，听起来漠不关心。
其次，贝森特的论点本身或许站得住脚，但在特朗普尚未兑现数十项承诺的背景下就说不通：这场已持续8周的战争很快就会结束。民主党参议员杰克·里德在参议院拨款委员会听证会上就经济问题向贝森特提出质询，他在武装服务委员会的履职经历让他在这一问题上颇具发言权。“从武装服务委员会的角度来看，战争不太可能很快结束。”他对财政部长说道。
第三，现货溢价或许并非特朗普所期待的救星。对当前市场状况的一种解释是，交易员担心未来石油供应不足，因此纷纷抛售远期期货合约，转而买入近期交割的石油期货合约。（这也是为何一些交易员急于在现货市场买入实体原油，彻底放弃纸面期货合约的原因。）
现货溢价或许只是当前危机的一种反映。如果霍尔木兹海峡持续封闭，局势很可能会进一步恶化。
4月7日，俄勒冈州奥罗拉市一处卡车加油站内的民众。
珍妮·凯恩 美联社 摄
汽油价格是特朗普 broader经济问题的缩影
贝森特周三在参议院的这场“宣讲”，既凸显了伊朗战争引发的严峻经济问题，也暴露了本届政府无法告知民众救济何时到来的窘境。
但政治困境早在战争爆发前就已存在。长期以来，特朗普一直难以共情数百万在食品和住房价格上捉襟见肘的美国人。这种不足因民众对他2024年竞选期间吹嘘能迅速解决此类问题的记忆而被放大。更广泛地说，特朗普正面临着多位前任总统都曾纠结过的难题：如何在多数选民认为经济并未惠及自身的情况下，为经济的利好面邀功。
大选临近之际，汽油价格是最直观也最危险的经济红灯。每个人都清楚加油站油价高企带来的切肤之痛。每周需要开车通勤的美国人，在油价高企时会切实感受到预算收紧的痛苦。
近期，政府在汽油价格问题上陷入了自相矛盾的境地。周日，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特在接受CNN记者杰克·塔珀采访时表示，汽油价格要回落至每加仑3美元以下可能还需要一段时间。“有可能在今年晚些时候实现，”赖特说道，“也可能要到明年。”
赖特的坦诚并未让特朗普满意，他在随后接受《国会山报》采访时称自己的内阁部长“完全错了”。
但特朗普本人的说法也前后矛盾。4月12日，他在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，在11月中期选举前汽油价格可能不会回落。但几天后，他又称油价会在大选前“大幅下跌”。
4月6日，佛罗里达州迈阿密市一处加油站内，一名男子正在给汽车加油。
乔·雷德利 盖蒂图片社 摄
贝森特的过往记录也让人对他的现货溢价理论产生质疑。4月15日他曾表示，乐观预计到9月20日“我们能重新实现每加仑3美元的汽油价格”。但随后他又补充说，这里的价格指的是每加仑3.00至3.99美元。
政府在汽油价格问题上的混乱表态，似乎不太可能缓解其在经济问题上面临的政治困境。
距离国会选举仅六个多月，美国民众对物价的情绪已经糟糕透顶。随着夏季临近，民众的固有印象逐渐成型，政府扭转局面的时间已经不多了。
根据4月1日发布的最新CNN/SSRS民调数据，特朗普的经济支持率已降至其任期新低31%。这一数据值得关注：2024年连任期间，民众对特朗普新冠疫情前经济表现的记忆，在很大程度上抵消了拜登政府时期的通胀困扰。民众不仅不满，还认为特朗普正在让情况变得更糟。约三分之二的美国人表示，特朗普的政策加剧了美国的经济困境，这一比例较1月份上升了10个百分点。
特朗普的所作所为几乎毫无帮助。白宫为改善民众生活推出的政策议程——比如降低某些处方药价格、提高住房可负担性的尝试——都断断续续、不了了之。总统曾嘲笑助手们试图让他在外出宣讲经济政策时照着稿子念。
税收申报季期间，有关退税增加和收入津贴（如小费）调整的潜在利好消息，被严峻的战争新闻和高油价彻底掩盖。特朗普去年圣诞节前的怪异演讲中，似乎在斥责那些不承认他自称的“黄金时代”的人，这与选民的实际生活体验格格不入。他近期发表的“战争期间油价没有达到我预期的高度”言论，同样如此。
4月17日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在空军一号上向媒体发表讲话，随后即将在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地降落。
温·麦克纳米 盖蒂图片社 摄
总统们往往难以有效谈论经济
特朗普正在印证他的前任们都明白的道理。
在竞选活动中将民生负担作为政治武器是一回事，但当自己成为在任者时，这个问题就会变成诅咒。乔·拜登总统就曾因此受挫：疫情后通胀飙升至80年代以来最高水平，他的政府始终未能真正摆脱这一困境。官员们声称高通胀是“暂时的”，这造成了一种类似特朗普常表现出的那种漠不关心的观感。
拜登和特朗普还有一个共同点：尽管存在具体的经济问题，但在他们任期内美国经济一直表现出韧性。尽管当前存在诸多预警信号，但就业增长平稳但并不亮眼；通胀令人担忧，但3月份的年化通胀率仍仅为3.3%；多年来屡屡被预言即将到来的衰退始终没有成真。
但选民的不满比“民生负担”这类阶段性议题所反映的要更深层。这源于工薪阶层和中产阶级多年来的艰难挣扎，他们不断面临住房、食品、大学教育、医疗保健和养老护理成本上涨的冲击。
当中选民认为经济陷入困境时，中期选举对在任总统来说尤其凶险——这使得措辞的选择变得格外重要。2010年，巴拉克·奥巴马总统试图为大衰退后拯救经济的举措邀功，但却难以表达对许多选民仍在承受的痛苦的理解。他在演讲中想出了一句台词，警告共和党人“把经济开进了沟里”，现在却想要拿回方向盘。“你们不能拿回方向盘。你们根本不会开车！”奥巴马说道。
但这并未奏效。共和党在中期选举中拿下63个席位，重新夺回众议院控制权，这位第44任总统将此称为“惨败”，原因是“全美各地的民众都没有感受到经济进展”。
和奥巴马一样，特朗普和贝森特出于政治需要，不得不编造乐观的理由，辩称情况并没有看起来那么糟。但与选民生活现实相悖的言论，很少能奏效。
Why the Trump team’s arcane economic theory won’t play at the gas pumps
Apr 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
Gas prices are displayed at a Chevron gas station, in downtown Los Angeles, on March 31.
Jae C. Hong/AP
This won’t sit well with Americans watching pump numbers whirl as they gas up their cars.
But the Trump administration is arguing that an obscure concept best known to speculators proves the Iran war’s economic shock is nearly over.
It’s called backwardation.
This is the arcane term for when the price of a commodity on the futures market grows more expensive the sooner it’s set to be delivered — and cheaper the later it’s set for delivery. Futures markets allow traders to lock in a number now for something they’ll buy or sell in months to come.
It sounds like a long shot. But it might be the best the administration has to go on as it seeks to stave off a Republican meltdown in the midterm elections. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put on his former hedge fund manager’s hat to try to convince senators Wednesday that the future was rosy.
“It is my belief that when we talk about gasoline, that the crude market is currently in what is known in the energy business as a very steep backwardation — which means that the future prices are much lower than we are at present.” Bessent said. “I think the conflict will end. I think gasoline prices will come back to where they were or perhaps lower.”
There are three issues with Bessent’s approach.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during a news briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on April 15, in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee/Getty Images
First, using financial jargon when gas is averaging $4 a gallon nationwide only epitomizes the tin ear that the administration has developed on affordability — the top voter issue ahead of November. Cabinet officials and the president, who lead wealthy lives far beyond the experience of regular citizens, sound indifferent when diagnosing daily struggles of Americans this way.
Second, Bessent’s argument may be fine in itself, but it doesn’t add up when Trump is yet to make good on dozens of promises that a war now in its eighth week is about to end. Democratic Sen. Jack Reed, who challenged Bessent on the economy in a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, has expertise on this point from another of his assignments. “From a perspective of the Armed Service Committee, it’s not likely to end soon,” he told the Treasury secretary.
Third, backwardation may not be the savior Trump’s looking for. One explanation for current conditions is that traders worry there won’t be enough oil going forward, so they are trading out of futures contracts down the road and into futures contracts that deliver oil sooner. (That’s also why some traders are rushing to buy real barrels of the black stuff on the physical market, ditching paper futures contracts altogether.)
Backwardation may just be a measure of the current crisis. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, things could well get worse.
People are seen at a truck filling gas station at a gas station on April 7, in Aurora, Oregon.
Jenny Kane/AP
Gas is a symptom of Trump’s wider economic problems
Bessent’s Senate seminar on Wednesday was emblematic of both the grave economic problems caused by the Iran war and the administration’s inability to tell people when relief will be at hand.
But the political problem predates the war. Trump has long struggled to show empathy to millions of Americans who are struggling to afford grocery and housing prices. His failure is exacerbated by memories of his boasts in the 2024 campaign that he’d quickly fix such issues. And more broadly, the president is struggling to handle a conundrum with which many of his predecessors wrestled: how to claim credit for the good parts of an economy millions of voters nevertheless believe is not working for them.
Gas prices are the most tangible, and dangerous, economic red light when elections loom. Everyone knows the ache caused by high numbers on gas station signs. Americans who drive significant miles to get to work each week experience a painful tightening of budgets when prices are high.
The administration has tied itself in knots over gas in recent days. On Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN’s Jake Tapper that it might be some time before gas prices are back under $3 a gallon. “That could happen later this year,” Wright said. “That might not happen until next year.”
Wright’s candor didn’t go down well with Trump, who said his Cabinet secretary was “totally wrong” in a later interview with “The Hill.”
But Trump has been all over the map, too. On April 12, he told Fox gas prices might not come down before November’s midterms. But days later, he said they will be “much lower” before the election.
A person puts fuel in his vehicle at a gas station on April 6, in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Bessent’s record might also cast some doubt on his backwardation theory. He said on April 15 he was optimistic that by September 20 “we can have $3 gas again.” But he then qualified his remark to mean a cost per gallon of between $3.00 and $3.99.
The administration’s mixed messaging on gasoline seems unlikely to ease its political problems over the economy.
Just over six months before the congressional elections, Americans are in a terrible mood on prices. Time is running out for the administration to fix it before perceptions solidify over the summer.
Trump’s approval rating on the economy has fallen to a new career low of 31%, according to new CNN/SSRS poll data released on April 1. This is notable since memories of Trump’s pre-Covid economy went a long way to assuring his reelection in 2024, after the inflation-plagued Biden administration. People are not just unhappy; they think Trump is making things worse. Roughly two-thirds of Americans say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the US, up 10 points since January.
Trump has hardly helped himself. White House efforts to highlight agenda items to make lives better — like attempts to lower the costs of certain prescription drugs and to make housing more affordable — have been sporadic. The president has mocked efforts by aides to make him stick to his script when he hits the road to talk about the economy.
A potential good news story about higher tax refunds and new allowances on earnings like tips were drowned out on tax day by grim war news and high gas prices. And Trump’s bizarre pre-Christmas address, in which he appeared to rebuke those who don’t recognize his self-declared “golden age,” created a gulf with voters’ lived experience. So did his recent comments that gas prices hadn’t gone as high as he expected during the war.
President Donald Trump speaks to members of the press aboard Air Force One on April 17, just prior to landing at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.
Win McNamee/Getty Images
Presidents often struggle to talk effectively about the economy
Trump is learning what his predecessors knew.
It’s one thing to use affordability as a political weapon in a campaign. But then the issue becomes a curse of incumbents. President Joe Biden found this out when his administration never really recovered from inflation that spiked to the highest levels since the 1980s after the pandemic. Officials’ assurances that high prices were “transitory” created a similar sense of indifference to that often projected by Trump.
Both Biden and Trump had another common experience: Despite specific economic problems, the US economy has been resilient on their watches. While there are many current warning signs, job growth has been steady but not spectacular; inflation is a worry, but was still only 3.3% annually in March; and years of predictions of imminent recessions have not panned out.
But voter frustration goes deeper than periodic spurts of attention to “affordability” suggest. It’s a result of years of grinding struggles for working- and middle-class Americans, who face a constant battering of costs for housing, food, college, health care and elder care.
Midterm elections are especially perilous for presidents when voters perceive economic duress — making the choice of language especially important. In 2010, President Barack Obama needed to claim credit for rescuing the economy after the Great Recession but struggled with how to acknowledge the pain many voters were still feeling. He came up with a line in his speeches to warn voters that Republicans “drove the economy into a ditch” and now wanted the keys back. “You can’t have the keys back. You don’t know how to drive!” Obama would say.
It didn’t work. Republicans gained 63 seats in the midterms and won back the House, in what the 44th president called a “shellacking” brought on because “people all across America aren’t feeling that progress.”
Just like Obama, Trump and Bessent are compelled by politics to concoct rationales for optimism and to argue things that are not as bad as they seem. But language that conflicts with the evidence of voters’ lives rarely works.