2026-04-28T19:26:58.855Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
撰稿：亚伦·布莱克
33分钟前发布
发布时间：2026年4月28日，美国东部时间下午3:26
安德鲁·哈尼克/盖蒂图片社
五年前，在唐纳德·特朗普总统谎称2020年大选存在舞弊后，其支持者暴力冲击了美国国会大厦。
他的律师鲁迪·朱利亚尼曾煽动他们展开“战斗式审判”，特朗普则亲自指挥他们进军国会大厦。重返白宫后，特朗普赦免了几乎所有涉案人员，其中包括200多名袭警者。
如今，他却声称民主党才是政治暴力问题的根源。
他在查理·柯克去年9月遇刺后提出了这一论调，而在周六晚间白宫记者晚宴外被捕枪手事件后，他再次重申了这一观点。
但美国民众对政治暴力持何种看法？以下是民调揭示的真相。
1. 两党一致认为这一问题日益严峻
皮尤研究中心的民调显示，柯克遇刺后，85%的美国人认为美国境内出于政治动机的暴力活动正在增加。
同时，两党民众也越来越普遍地认为，政治言论在其中扮演了重要角色。
自2011年起，NBC新闻多次开展民调，询问人们认为重大政治暴力事件更多是由“精神失常者”还是“极端政治言论”引发。
将暴力归咎于言论而非精神疾病的比例从2011年（时任民主党众议员加布里埃尔·吉福兹遇刺）的24%，升至2017年（国会共和党议员棒球训练遇袭）的41%，2022年（保罗·佩洛西遇袭）的49%，2024年（特朗普在巴特勒遇刺未遂）的54%，直至去年柯克遇刺后的61%。
柯克遇刺是首次出现两党多数民众都将暴力归咎于言论而非精神失常者的情况。
民主党人通常更倾向于将言论与实际暴力行为联系起来。去年底的PRRI民调显示，66%的民主党人和46%的共和党人认为，暴力言论和仇恨符号“极大地”助长了暴力行动。
但共和党人中认同这一观点的比例已从2019年的26%大幅上升。
梅利莎·马杰恰兹/法新社/盖蒂图片社
2. 民众仍普遍认为右翼言论问题更严重
尽管特朗普在柯克遇刺后刻意辩称，暴力言论主要是民主党人的问题，但美国民众并不买账。
或许是因为特朗普多年来使用了大量充满暴力和恶意的言论，民众仍更倾向于指责共和党。
去年10月的盖洛普民调显示，69%的美国人认为共和党及其支持者“在使用煽动性语言批评政治对手方面做得太过火”，而认为民主党存在同样问题的比例为60%。
这与特朗普第一任期内2019年昆尼皮亚克大学的民调结果相似。当时45%的选民指责特朗普导致政治缺乏文明，而指责民主党人的比例为34%。
去年10月《华盛顿邮报》与美国广播公司联合开展的民调显示，34%的人认为共和党人更应为本国政治暴力风险负责，而持该观点的民主党人占比为28%。
这6个百分点的差距小于2024年特朗普遇刺未遂后的情况，但与2022年的结果相近。
3. 民众越来越认为左翼暴力与右翼暴力不相上下
数十年来的数据显示，右翼政治暴力问题远比左翼严重得多。
但卡托研究所等机构的数据表明，这一情况可能正在发生变化，近期左翼袭击事件至少出现了一定程度的上升。而近期的高调事件，如特朗普遇刺未遂和柯克遇刺，似乎让美国民众意识到，这更多是一个“双方都有责任”的问题。
- PRRI民调显示，44%的美国人认为右翼团体制造了大部分政治暴力，而认为左翼团体应为此负责的比例为41%。
- 皮尤民调显示，52%的美国人认为右翼极端主义是“重大问题”，而认为左翼极端主义同样属于重大问题的比例为53%。
- 马凯特大学法学院去年11月的民调显示，26%的人认为右翼暴力问题更严重，28%的人则认为左翼暴力问题更突出。
同样，路透社与益普索近期的民调显示，32%的美国人认为民主党在处理暴力与极端主义问题上的做法更优，而认为共和党做法更优的比例为31%。
这些结果都非常接近，处于误差范围内。它们表明，近期事件让民众对暴力及其政治动机的看法更加均衡——尽管更多人仍倾向于指责共和党人的言论。
布莱恩·R·史密斯/法新社/盖蒂图片社
4. 两党在“正当暴力”观点上的差距已缩小
去年我曾指出，多年来的民调都显示共和党人更认同“正当暴力”的概念——即某些情况下政治暴力是合理的。
当时差距甚至非常悬殊。
但如今许多左翼人士，尤其是年轻的自由派，似乎为柯克和联合健康集团首席执行官布莱恩·汤普森遇刺事件辩护，甚至表示庆祝。2024年汤普森遇袭事件后，CBS新闻与YouGov联合开展的民调显示，31%的民主党人表示对相关消息持积极反应是可以接受的，而持该观点的共和党人占比为19%。
如今，两党民众对“正当暴力”的看法已更为接近。
最新的PRRI数据显示，17%的民主党人认同当前局势已经严重到“真正的美国爱国者可能不得不诉诸暴力来拯救我们的国家”，而持该观点的共和党人占比为19%。在拜登政府时期，认同该说法的共和党人通常是民主党人的三倍。
马凯特民调显示，13%的民主党人认为为实现政治目标使用暴力是合理的，而持该观点的共和党人占比为10%。
皮尤的数据也显示，两党中约七成的人认为各自政党应彻底拒绝倡导暴力的团体。
路透社去年10月的数据同样显示，两党多数人都反对以威胁、恐吓或暴力手段实现政治目标的观点。
综上所述，两党在假设性正当暴力问题上的分歧显然已大幅缩小。
因此，尽管美国民众似乎并未完全认同特朗普“这几乎全是民主党人的问题”的论调，但自他重返椭圆形办公室以来，相关动态已发生了变化。
What polls show about Republicans, Democrats and violence
2026-04-28T19:26:58.855Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
33 min ago
PUBLISHED Apr 28, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Armed Secret Service agents stand on stage during a shooting incident at the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton on April 25, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Five years ago, supporters of President Donald Trump violently stormed the US Capitol after he fed them lies about the 2020 election.
His lawyer Rudy Giuliani had told them to engage in a “trial by combat” and Trump had directed them to march to the Capitol. Upon returning to office, Trump pardoned virtually all of them, including more than 200 who assaulted police.
Today, he argues it’s Democrats who have the problem with political violence.
He made that case after Charlie Kirk’s assassination in September, and he’s making it again after a gunman was arrested outside the White House Correspondents’ Dinner Saturday night.
But what do the American people think about political violence? Here’s what polling shows.
1. There is bipartisan agreement that this is a growing problem
Fully 85% of Americans said after Kirk’s assassination that politically motivated violence was increasing in the United States, according to the Pew Research Center.
And there is also growing, bipartisan agreement that political rhetoric is playing a major role.
Since 2011, NBC News polling has repeatedly asked whether major instances of political violence were driven more by “a disturbed person” or “extreme political rhetoric.”
The percentage blaming rhetoric more than mental illness has increased from 24% in 2011 (Democratic then-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords shooting), to 41% in 2017 (congressional GOP baseball practice shooting), to 49% in 2022 (Paul Pelosi attack), to 54% in 2024 (Trump’s assassination attempt in Butler), to 61% last year (Kirk’s assassination).
The Kirk assassination was the first time that majorities of both Republicans and Democrats blamed rhetoric more than a disturbed person.
Democrats have generally been more likely to connect rhetoric to actual violence. A PRRI poll late last year showed 66% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans said violent language and hate symbols contribute “a lot” to violent actions.
But the percentage of Republicans who agree with that statement has risen substantially from 2019, when just 26% agreed.
People pay their respects during a candlelight vigil for Charlie Kirk at a makeshift memorial at Orem City Center Park in Orem, Utah on September 11, 2025.
Melissa Majchrzak/AFP/Getty Images
2. People still tend to see the right’s rhetoric as a bigger problem
Despite Trump’s concerted efforts after Kirk’s assassination to argue violent rhetoric is mostly a Democratic problem, Americans didn’t buy it.
Perhaps owing to Trump’s years of rather violent and ugly rhetoric, they still tended to blame Republicans more.
An October Gallup poll showed 69% of Americans said Republicans and their supporters had “gone too far in using inflammatory language to criticize their political opponents.” That compared to 60% who said the same of Democrats.
That’s similar to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted during Trump’s first term in 2019. It found 45% of voters blamed Trump for the lack of civility in politics, compared to 34% who blamed Democrats.
And a Washington Post-ABC News poll in October showed 34% blamed Republicans more for the risk of politically motivated violence, compared to 28% who blamed Democrats more.
That six-point gap was smaller than after Trump’s assassination attempt in 2024, but similar to 2022.
3. People increasingly see left-wing violence on par with right-wing
Data for decades has shown that right-wing political violence has been a bigger problem than left-wing violence — by a lot.
But there is some evidence that could be shifting, with left-wing attacks rising at least somewhat of late, according to data from the Cato Institute and others. And high-profile recent episodes like the Trump assassination attempts and the Kirk assassination appear to have convinced Americans that this is more of a “both sides” problem.
- 44% of Americans said right-wing groups were responsible for most political violence, compared to 41% who said left-wing groups, per the PRRI poll.
- 52% of Americans said right-wing extremism was a “major problem,” compared to 53% who said the same of left-wing extremism, according to the Pew poll.
- 26% said right-wing violence was a bigger problem, compared to 28% who said it was left-wing violence, per a November Marquette Law School poll.
Similarly, 32% of Americans said Democrats had a better approach to violence and extremism, versus 31% who said that about Republicans, according to a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll.
Those are all very close, margin-of-error findings. And they suggest that recent events have made the perception of violence and its political motivations more of a wash — even if more people tend to fault Republicans’ rhetoric.
Police respond as CEO of UnitedHealthcare Brian Thompson, 50, was shot as he entered the New York Hilton after 6:45am on December 4, 2024 in New York.
Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images
4. The left has closed the gap on views of justified violence
Last year, I noted how polling for years had shown Republicans were more likely to believe in the concept of justified violence — that is, that there are certain circumstances that warrant political violence.
And it wasn’t even close.
But many on the left — especially younger liberals — seemed to justify and even celebrate the murders of Kirk and UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. After the latter episode in 2024, a CBS News-YouGov poll showed 31% of Democrats said it was acceptable to react positively to the news, versus 19% of Republicans.
Now, Republicans’ and Democrats’ views of justified violence are much closer.
The most recent PRRI data showed 17% of Democrats agreed that things were so off-track that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” compared to 19% of Republicans. During the Biden administration, there were usually three times as many Republicans who agreed with that statement.
The Marquette poll showed 13% of Democrats said violence can be justified to achieve political goals, versus 10% of Republicans.
Pew data shows similar proportions of Democrats and Republicans said their party should completely reject groups who advocate violence — about 7 in 10 in both cases.
And the Reuters data from October showed similar numbers of both parties disagreed with the idea of threatening or intimidating others or using violence to achieve political goals.
All that to say, partisan views on justified hypothetical violence have clearly become much closer.
So while Americans still haven’t seemed to buy into Trump’s argument that this is overwhelmingly a Democratic problem, certain dynamics have shifted since he returned to the Oval Office.
