能源咨询公司Kpler预计，随着剩余款项结算完毕，德黑兰的海运石油收入可能在12月中旬彻底枯竭
摩根·菲利普斯 福克斯新闻报道
发表于2026年10月25日 美国东部时间凌晨4:00
伊朗制裁问题专家米阿德·马利基解释了如果德黑兰的原油收入降至零可能会发生什么——以及为何经济痛苦可能会在针对政权军方之前就打击普通伊朗人。
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伊朗正面临一场金融清算，美国海军封锁威胁着在12月中旬前抹去其海运原油收入——但经济痛苦可能会比华盛顿试图牵制的军方更沉重地落到普通伊朗人身上。
能源情报公司Kpler的数据显示，伊朗在美国封锁区之外的可追踪浮动石油库存已降至零，该公司预计，随着未付款项的结算，德黑兰的原油收入可能会在12月中旬枯竭。
但石油收入的损失并不一定意味着立即出现军事资金危机。德黑兰可以在削减民用项目的同时保护军事开支，通过通货膨胀侵蚀购买力并动用替代收入来源。
贝斯金表示，随着石油生命线枯竭，伊朗将在两周内“无物可售”
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2016年2月23日，在波斯湾沿岸的哈尔克岛石油设施中，出口石油管道清晰可见。（法新社通过盖蒂图片社，斯特拉特/法新社拍摄）
这让华盛顿的施压行动变得复杂：封锁可能会让德黑兰失去其最大的现金来源之一，却不会立即让军方和伊斯兰革命卫队陷入财务困境。
欧亚集团高级伊朗与能源分析师格雷戈里·布鲁以及民主防御基金会伊朗制裁与金融专家米阿德·马利基表示，石油直接占伊朗政府预算的约30%。
布鲁称，伊朗今年初预计日均出口约170万桶石油，每桶价格约54美元。实际出口未达到该目标，不过较高的石油价格让德黑兰积累了一些财务缓冲。
马利基估算，若计入间接收入，石油及成品油占伊朗政权收入的50%至60%。
不过，12月的截止日期并非伊朗突然耗尽资金的节点。
2026年9月14日，在伊朗与美国持续紧张关系背景下，在美国制裁影响下，伊朗首都德黑兰的日常生活仍在继续。（）
“12月的时间线更多是现金流中断，并非真正的崩溃状态，”马利基告诉福克斯新闻数字版。
到目前为止，德黑兰已通过通货膨胀和里亚尔贬值吸收部分压力，而非突然停止发放政府薪资或允许广泛短缺。
“伊朗人的购买力正在逐步下降，”马利基表示。
尽管如此，失去占政府预算约30%的收入来源仍将迫使德黑兰做出愈发艰难的选择。德黑兰可以削减开支、增加借贷或扩大赤字。大幅削减可能会冲击补贴、养老金和其他政府项目，而赤字支出则可能加剧本已高企的通货膨胀。
“市场已预计明年政府支出将大幅减少，”布鲁称，“预算的更大一部分可能需要通过借贷和赤字支出来填补，这当然会加剧通货膨胀。”
特朗普制裁未能触及的中东关键经济生命线丧失，僵局持续
然而，军事开支可能更具韧性。
“普遍预期非军事支出将大幅削减，而军事开支将维持甚至因伊朗政权进入全面战时状态而增加，”布鲁表示。
布鲁称，伊朗目前正投入资源重建导弹生产设施及其他军事基础设施，扩建地下设施并修复核计划受损部分。
伊朗武装力量也与该国石油贸易直接相关。
美国打击伊朗石油的全面行动将中国炼油厂列为目标，制裁“影子舰队”油轮
财政部去年表示，德黑兰正将约20万桶/日的原油分配给武装力量，计划分配价值预计每年超过100亿美元。军事机构可将分配的石油销往海外，自行支配收入。
马利基表示，这些收入有助于采购装备、化学品和武器零部件，并支持伊朗支持的组织，包括真主党和哈马斯。
伊斯兰革命卫队还从国家正式预算之外的走私、黑市交易和规避制裁网络中获取收入。布鲁称，随着制裁挤压伊朗私人经济，该组织的经济影响力不断扩大。
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2026年10月13日周二，一艘小船漂浮在伊朗班达尔阿巴斯附近霍尔木兹海峡，商业船只停泊在附近。（拉齐耶·保达特/伊朗学生通讯社通过美联社拍摄）
“如果伊斯兰革命卫队是该国最重要的机构，且在很大程度上受益于制裁、封锁和美国各种形式的经济压力，那么它可能会从这一新环境中获益，而非像政府整体预算那样被挤压，”布鲁表示。
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伊朗的石油挤压局面已酝酿数月之久。
德黑兰在2月战争开始前持有约1.35亿桶浮动存储原油，在美国军方限制新出口后，该库存为其维持销售提供了储备。目前这些海上库存已消耗殆尽。
美国中央司令部估计，封锁已导致德黑兰至少损失250亿美元石油收入。
伊朗原油买家通常在交货后1至2个月结算付款，这导致伊朗浮动库存消失与Kpler预测的12月收入切断之间存在时间差。
不过，即使这一预测基本成立，伊朗也不太可能完全停止从碳氢化合物中赚钱。
少量石油仍可通过卡车、铁路跨陆路以及跨里海运输，而成品油和石化产品则可通过封锁针对的海运原油贸易之外的路线运输。
“虽然可追踪的伊朗石油量已降至零，但伊朗石油出口完全归零的可能性不大，”布鲁称，“数量可能相当少，但不会完全消失。”
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两位专家均表示，与华盛顿达成允许伊朗油轮离开波斯湾的协议可扭转这一趋势。若未达成协议或封锁未放松，财务压力预计将在明年进一步加剧。
更大的考验可能在3月到来，届时伊朗将启动新财年，必须使其支出计划与大幅下降的石油收入相匹配。
“将会出现财政挤压，新预算发布之际将面临压力，”布鲁称，“随着政府推出削减开支措施，将出现经济动荡，甚至可能是经济混乱。”
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届时，德黑兰可能已连续数月失去传统海运原油收入，迫使政权决定愿意将多少财务压力转嫁民众，同时保留其他领域的支出。
Iran’s oil lifeline is drying up. The biggest pain may fall on ordinary citizens
Energy firm Kpler projects Tehran’s seaborne oil income could dry up by mid-December as remaining payments settle
By Morgan Phillips Fox News
Published October 25, 2026 4:00am EDT
Iran sanctions expert Miad Maleki explains what could happen if Tehran’s crude revenues fall to zero — and why the economic pain may hit ordinary Iranians before the regime’s military.
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Iran is approaching a financial reckoning as a U.S. naval blockade threatens to wipe out its seaborne crude oil revenues by mid-December — but the economic pain may fall more heavily on ordinary Iranians than on the military Washington is trying to constrain.
Iran’s trackable floating oil inventory outside the U.S. blockade zone has fallen to zero, according to energy intelligence firm Kpler, which projects that Tehran’s crude revenues could dry up by the middle of December as outstanding payments are settled.
But the loss of oil revenue would not necessarily translate into an immediate military funding crisis. Tehran could shield military spending while cutting civilian programs, allowing inflation to erode purchasing power and drawing on alternative revenue sources.
BESSENT SAYS IRAN WILL HAVE ‘NOTHING LEFT TO TRADE’ WITHIN TWO WEEKS AS OIL LIFELINE DRIES UP
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Export oil pipelines are seen at an oil facility on Kharg Island, on the shore of the Gulf, Feb. 23, 2016.(Str/AFP Via Getty Images)
That complicates Washington’s pressure campaign: The blockade may deprive Tehran of one of its biggest sources of cash without immediately starving the military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the money they need to operate.
Oil directly accounts for roughly 30% of Iran’s government budget, according to Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, and Miad Maleki, an Iran sanctions and financial expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Iran entered the year expecting to export about 1.7 million barrels per day at roughly $54 per barrel, Brew said. Actual exports have fallen short of that target, though higher oil prices allowed Tehran to build some financial cushion.
Maleki estimated that oil and refined petroleum products account for between 50% and 60% of regime revenue when indirect income is included.
Still, the December deadline is not a date on which Iran suddenly runs out of money.
Daily life continues in Tehran, capital of Iran, amid ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States, under the impact of US sanctions, on September 14, 2026.()
“The December timeline is more of a cash flow kind of disruption, and not really a collapse state,” Maleki told Fox News Digital.
Tehran has so far allowed inflation and the weakening rial to absorb some of the pressure rather than abruptly stopping government salaries or allowing widespread shortages to develop.
“The purchasing power of Iranians incrementally declines,” Maleki said.
Losing a revenue stream that covers roughly 30% of the government budget would nevertheless force increasingly difficult choices. Tehran can cut spending, borrow more or run larger deficits. Deeper cuts could hit subsidies, pensions and other government programs, while deficit spending risks fueling already high inflation.
“There’s already expectations that government spending next year is going to be greatly reduced,” Brew said . “A bigger chunk of the budget is likely going to be met through borrowing and deficit spending, which is of course going to add to inflation.”
IRAN LOSES KEY ECONOMIC LIFELINE IN MIDDLE EAST THAT TRUMP’S SANCTIONS COULDN’T REACH AS DEADLOCK PERSISTS
Military spending, however, could prove more resistant.
“There is a broad expectation that non-military spending is going to be slashed significantly, while military spending is going to be maintained and might even increase because of the overall war footing that the Iranian regime has been put on,” Brew said.
Iran is already spending resources to rebuild missile production facilities and other military infrastructure, expand underground facilities and repair damage to its nuclear program, Brew said.
Iran’s armed forces also have a direct connection to the country’s oil trade.
US TARGETS CHINESE REFINERY IN SWEEPING IRAN OIL CRACKDOWN, SANCTIONS ‘SHADOW FLEET’ TANKERS
The Treasury Department said last year that Tehran was allocating roughly 200,000 barrels of crude per day to its armed forces, with the value of planned allocations expected to exceed $10 billion annually. Military organizations can sell allocated oil abroad and use the proceeds themselves.
Maleki said those sales have helped finance equipment, chemicals and weapons components and support Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and Hamas.
The IRGC also draws revenue from smuggling, black-market commerce and sanctions-evasion networks outside the formal state budget. Brew said its economic influence has expanded as sanctions have squeezed Iran’s private economy.
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A boat floats as commercial vessels appear anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026.(Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP)
“If the IRGC is the single most important institution in the country, and if it largely benefits from sanctions and blockades and various forms of U.S. economic pressure, then there’s a world in which it benefits from this new environment rather than being squeezed like the overall government budget,” Brew said.
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Iran’s oil squeeze has been months in the making.
Tehran held roughly 135 million barrels of crude in floating storage before the war began in February, providing a stockpile it could continue selling after U.S. forces restricted new exports. That offshore inventory has now been exhausted.
U.S. Central Command estimates the blockade has already denied Tehran at least $25 billion in oil revenue.
Buyers of Iranian crude typically settle payments one to two months after delivery, creating the lag between the disappearance of Iran’s floating inventory and Kpler’s projected revenue cutoff in December.
Even if that projection broadly holds, however, Iran is unlikely to stop earning money from hydrocarbons altogether.
Smaller quantities of oil can still move overland by truck and rail and across the Caspian Sea, while refined petroleum and petrochemical products can travel through routes outside the seaborne crude trade targeted by the blockade.
“While the amount of Iranian oil that can be tracked has fallen to zero, it’s unlikely Iran’s oil exports completely fall to nothing,” Brew said. “The amount will likely be fairly small, but it won’t be completely zeroed.”
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Both experts said an agreement with Washington allowing Iranian tankers to resume leaving the Persian Gulf could reverse the trajectory . Without a deal or relaxation of the blockade, the financial pressure is expected to build into next year.
The bigger test may arrive in March, when Iran begins its new fiscal year and must reconcile its spending plans with dramatically lower oil income.
“There’s going to be a fiscal squeeze, and there’s going to be pressure around the release of the new budget,” Brew said. “There’s going to be economic unrest, potentially even economic turmoil as the government rolls out spending cuts.”
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By then, Tehran could have gone months without its traditional seaborne crude income, forcing the regime to decide how much of the financial squeeze it is willing to pass on to its population while preserving spending elsewhere.