2026-08-27T12:43:53.183Z / 路透社
8月27日（路透社）——美国首次申请失业救济金人数连续第二周下降，而领取失业救济金的总人数降至一个月来最低水平，这表明劳动力市场稳定，应该会给美联储留出空间，专注于遏制通胀。
与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普试图通过对进口商品大幅加关税来缩小美国商品贸易逆差，但7月商品贸易逆差达到16个月来最宽水平，原因是出口连续第三个月下滑，而资本财进口因人工智能产业扩张激增。上月扩大的商品贸易逆差意味着贸易有望连续第四个季度对美国国内生产总值增长构成净拖累。
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美国劳工部周四表示，在截至8月22日的一周，经季节性调整后的州初请失业金人数下降4000人，至20.3万人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测最新一周初请人数为20.8万人。
初请失业金人数目前徘徊在今年18.9万至23万区间的下限，表明尽管招聘疲软，但裁员率依然很低。尽管7月就业数据意外下滑，但美国失业率再次小幅下降至4.1%，处于历史低位。
失业救济金申请报告显示，在截至8月15日的一周，持续领取失业救济金的人数（即首次申请一周救济金后的领取人数，这是衡量招聘情况的指标）下降1.8万人，经季节性调整后为177.8万人。持续领取救济金的数据涵盖了8月非农就业报告的调查周。
杰富瑞集团首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯表示，薪资处理公司ADP和劳动力市场分析公司Revelio的最新数据“描绘出的劳动力市场平衡状况，比更易波动的美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据所暗示的要好”。
“私营部门就业增长步伐温和且稳定，这恰好与维持失业率稳定所需的增速相符，”西蒙斯说。“企业正在替换离职员工，这主要是由退休潮推动的，而超出替换需求的小幅就业增长也与劳动力增长的温和步伐相符。”
就业市场稳健，通胀高企
如果劳动力市场稳定态势得以维持，美联储将有空间继续专注于遏制通胀。目前通胀已连续65个月高于美联储2%的目标。
周四公布的上述数据出炉之际，美联储政策制定者和其他全球经济官员正聚集在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔，参加堪萨斯城联邦储备银行举办的年度经济研讨会。美联储主席凯文·沃什将于周五上午发表主旨演讲。沃什在其任期初期一直避免直接评论经济状况和美联储政策方向，目前他面临着压力，需要回应一个核心问题：当前的通胀是否构成问题，以及应该如何应对？
越来越多的美联储同僚开始对通胀感到担忧，上月有三名具有投票权的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员反对将利率维持在3.50%至3.75%区间不变的决议。美联储用于设定目标的通胀指标上月意外维持在3.7%。
堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德是杰克逊霍尔会议的主办方，他在周四接受CNBC采访时将通胀描述为“依然顽固”且“依然黏性十足”。他表示：“我不知道我们当前的利率政策正在限制什么。”
芝加哥联储主席奥斯汀·古尔斯比也表示，通胀是他最关注的问题。
“所有人都应该保持警惕，我想说，我短期内最大的担忧依然是通胀尚未得到控制，”古尔斯比在“快速响应”播客中说道。
贸易逆差升至“解放日”关税抢运以来最宽水平
美国人口普查局的另一份报告显示，7月美国商品贸易逆差从6月的1014亿美元扩大至1188亿美元，创下2025年3月以来的最大商品贸易逆差。2025年3月，因进口商赶在特朗普的“解放日”关税公告前抢运商品，贸易逆差曾达到纪录高位。
4月曾创下历史新高的出口下滑2.9%，至1994亿美元，为1月以来最低水平。下滑主要由工业商品出口下降11.2%带动。
进口增长3.7%，至3182亿美元，为2025年3月创纪录高位以来的最高水平，其中资本财进口跳增11.3%，这很可能与支撑人工智能投资热潮所需的设备有关。
“这一类别因企业在与人工智能扩张相关的高科技商品上的持续支出而得到提振，目前尚无任何放缓迹象，”牛津经济研究院高级美国经济学家马修·马丁表示。“我们预计，资本财进口将在2027年之前持续支撑进口的强劲增长。”
马丁表示，贸易逆差扩大可能意味着第三季度贸易将连续第四个季度对国内生产总值增长构成净拖累，他估计拖累幅度为1个百分点。周三公布的美国商务部数据显示，第二季度贸易拖累了1.14个百分点的增长。
丹·伯恩斯报道，迈克尔·S·德比补充报道；编辑：千叶Nomiyama、保罗·西马奥、尼克·齐明斯基
我们的报道准则：路透社汤姆森路透信托原则。
US jobless claims dip in latest week; goods trade deficit widens in July
2026-08-27T12:43:53.183Z / Reuters
Aug 27 (Reuters) – The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits for the first time fell for a second week while the overall number of people on jobless relief rolls slid to the lowest level in a month, signaling a stable labor market that should give the Federal Reserve leeway to focus on containing inflation.
Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit in goods, which President Donald Trump is trying to reduce through his aggressive use of tariffs on imported goods, was the widest in 16 months in July as exports fell for a third straight month and capital goods imports surged on the back of the artificial intelligence build-out. The wider goods trade gap last month puts trade on track to be a net drag on U.S. gross domestic product growth for a fourth straight quarter.
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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 203,000 for the week ended August 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 208,000 claims for the latest week.
Claims are hovering in the lower end of their 189,000-230,000 range for this year, indicating that layoffs remain low even if hiring is soft. Despite a surprise drop in employment in July, the U.S. jobless rate ticked down again to 4.1%, a historically low level.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.778 million during the week ended August 15, the claims report showed. The continued claims data covered the survey week for the monthly nonfarm payrolls report for August.
Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, said recent data from payroll processor ADP and labor market analytics firm Revelio “paint a picture of a labor market that is in better balance than what is implied by the more volatile BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) numbers.”
“There is a modest, steady pace of private sector job creation that is right in line with the amount necessary to keep the unemployment rate steady,” Simons said. “Businesses are replacing workers who leave, mostly driven by retirements, and the modest pace of payroll expansion beyond is in line with the modest pace of labor force growth.”
BENIGN JOB MARKET, HOT INFLATION
Labor market stability, if sustained, gives the Fed headroom to keep its focus on containing inflation that has run above its 2% target for 65 straight months.
Thursday’s data came as Fed policymakers and other global economic officials were gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium, where U.S. central bank Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a keynote address on Friday morning. Warsh, who so far in his young term has shied away from commenting specifically on the state of the economy and direction of Fed policy, is under pressure to address a central issue: Is current inflation a problem or not, and what should be done about it?
A growing minority of his Fed colleagues are increasingly anxious about inflation, and three voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee dissented last month with the decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The inflation measure the Fed uses to set its target held steady unexpectedly last month at 3.7%.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, the host of the Jackson Hole conference, described inflation as “still stubborn” and “still sticky” in a CNBC interview on Thursday. “I don’t know what we’re restricting currently with the rate policy that we’re at today,” he said.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also said inflation is his top concern.
“Everybody should be on edge, and I would say my biggest fear in the short run continues to be that inflation is not under control,” Goolsbee said on the Rapid Response podcast.
TRADE GAP WIDEST SINCE PRE-LIBERATION DAY RUSH
A separate report from the Census Bureau showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $118.8 billion in July from $101.4 billion in June, marking the largest goods trade gap since March 2025, when it hit a record as importers rushed to bring in goods ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement.
Exports, which had hit a record in April, declined 2.9% to $199.4 billion, the lowest level since January. The decline was led by an 11.2% drop in exports of industrial goods.
Imports rose 3.7% to $318.2 billion, the highest level since the record high in March 2025, led by an 11.3% jump in capital goods imports, likely tied to equipment needed to power the AI investment boom.
“This category has been boosted by relentless business spending on high-tech goods associated with the AI buildout, which shows no signs of slowing at this point,” said Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “We expect capital goods imports to support strong growth in imports well into 2027.”
The widening trade gap likely means trade will be a net drag on gross domestic product growth for a fourth straight quarter in the third quarter, Martin said, estimating a drag of 1 percentage point. Trade subtracted 1.14 percentage point from growth in the second quarter, Commerce Department data released Wednesday showed.
Reporting by Dan Burns, additional reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Nick Zieminski
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