2026年7月27日 美国东部时间下午2:24 / 福克斯新闻网
专家表示，这座深埋地下的设施可能超出了GBU-57巨型钻地弹的可靠打击范围
作者：摩根·菲利普斯 福克斯新闻网
唐纳德·特朗普总统誓言确保伊朗永远不会获得核武器，本台就此与“联合打击伊朗核计划”组织首席执行官马克·华莱士展开讨论。华莱士重点谈到了伊朗隐蔽的“镐柄山”核设施构成的威胁，该设施可能存放离心机和浓缩铀。他强调必须摧毁这座设施，并讨论了伊朗政权将核野心作为对西方施压的筹码。
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唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁要袭击伊朗深埋地下的镐柄山核设施——这座美国此前在轰炸伊朗其他主要核设施时未曾触碰的地点，引发了新的疑问：究竟发生了什么变化？
据估计，该设施位于伊朗受损的纳坦兹核浓缩设施附近，地下至少100米深处。2020年，伊朗一座年可组装约6000台先进离心机的地上工厂被摧毁后，镐柄山设施被设计为替代方案。
伊朗方面表示，这座新设施规模更大、更现代化，将“建在大山深处”。分析人士认为，该隧道群最终可容纳离心机组装线、浓缩工厂或用于某些核武器研发活动的设备。
我研究过军事战略，特朗普如今面临伊朗最古老的战场诡计
但美国政府并未说明是否已确认离心机被转移至该设施内，也未解释为何这座此前在历次袭击中未被波及的场地如今值得动用打击。军事专家们也存在分歧：空袭能否摧毁镐柄山内部设施，还是仅能暂时封堵其入口。
这座足以保护伊朗核基础设施的深度，可能让镐柄山的主要控制室超出了美国威力最强的常规钻地武器的可靠破坏范围。轰炸其暴露的入口或许能阻止伊朗使用该设施，但无法摧毁设施或内部存放的任何物品。
特朗普周二表示，美国可能“很快”且“大规模”打击该区域。
特朗普威胁将对伊朗未来胡塞武装袭击实施“重大军事惩罚”
此前，《华尔街日报》报道称以色列情报机构认为伊朗已于去年秋季将数千台离心机转移至镐柄山。特朗普称转移“可能”发生，但补充说美国并无“书面记录”佐证此事。
“也许这次他们说对了，”特朗普说道，“但没关系。除非他们掌握了相关材料，否则一切都不算数。”
“我们紧盯的是材料，”他补充道。
特朗普寻求6.72亿美元阻止伊朗核计划，谈判代表商讨铀库存命运
特朗普所说的“材料”指的是伊朗的浓缩铀，包括可通过离心机进一步富集至武器级别的铀气体。
在2025年6月的袭击之前，国际原子能机构已核实伊朗拥有440.9公斤浓度达60%的铀，若进一步浓缩，按照该机构的标准测算，足以制造约10枚核武器。
据信，这批库存大部分存放在伊斯法罕，另有部分存放在纳坦兹和福特ow。此后，核查人员无法核实这批材料的数量、状态或当前位置。
美国科学与国际安全研究所评估认为，这批材料仍被困在这三处地点，并不认为浓缩铀已被运入镐柄山。
美国政府未说明是否已独立证实以色列方面的评估，也未确认离心机是否被存储或安装在镐柄山内部，或是核材料是否已进入该设施。
存放离心机并不意味着镐柄山就成为了运转中的浓缩工厂。这些机器必须安装在相互连接的级联系统中，与电力、通风和管道系统相连，并供应铀气体。
据这家位于华盛顿的研究所称，卫星图像显示该设施仍在建设中，没有迹象表明镐柄山已投入运营。今年2月的图像显示，伊朗正在隧道入口处浇筑混凝土、堆砌石块并搭建加固结构，显然是为了增强其抵御空袭的能力。
分析人士还在入口附近发现了小型封闭式车顶车辆，这可能表明伊朗正在对内部设施进行装配。但卫星图像无法确定这些车辆运载的是什么。
美国科学与国际安全研究所高级研究员斯宾塞·法拉加索对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，此前美国和以色列的袭击优先打击伊朗正在运转的浓缩项目。基于当时对镐柄山的了解，他说，内部“没有任何值得动用宝贵的深钻武器打击的优先级目标”。
“该设施仍在建设中，离心机工厂不太可能在内部运行，”法拉加索说道。
但法拉加索表示，离心机可能通过覆盖式卡车运入，不会被商业卫星探测到，因此以色列方面的情报看似合理，但外部分析师无法证实。
他说，此次 reported 转移或许可以解释特朗普近期为何聚焦镐柄山。该设施也是最后几座未遭打击的同类规模核相关场所之一。
在“史诗愤怒行动”的最初几个月里，特朗普并未公开提及镐柄山。7月13日，保守派电台主持人休·休伊特在采访中提及该设施后，它才进入特朗普的公开言论范畴。
特朗普称，美国的监视未在该设施发现任何活动，但他将镐柄山称为“对准正门的一次强力重击”的可能目标。
采访结束时，休伊特敦促特朗普“拿下镐柄山”。
“我们会捣毁镐柄山，”特朗普回应道，“告诉伊朗人做好准备。”
本文未能联系到白宫置评。
美国政府并未解释此次最新威胁是否反映了新的情报、是否旨在阻止伊朗启用该设施，或是从摧毁现有浓缩产能转向阻止伊朗重建核计划。
美国是否能从空中摧毁镐柄山仍存在争议。
巴黎政治学院助理教授、卡内基国际和平基金会核政策项目非常驻学者妮可·格拉耶夫斯基表示，通过类似美国针对福特ow的空袭行动摧毁该设施“几乎不可能”。
格拉耶夫斯基表示，镐柄山深度更深、防御更严密，且没有公开确认的结构性弱点可供利用，不像福特ow那样。
退役空军准将罗伯特·斯波丁曾是B-2轰炸机行动指挥官，他表示，策划者首先会确定任务目标是摧毁镐柄山内部，还是仅阻止伊朗使用该设施。
“你会先评估目标，再评估让某物无法使用——或将其摧毁——所需的成本，”斯波丁说道。
他说，如果摧毁该设施被证明不可行，美国可以转而阻止其被使用，防止伊朗运送操作该设施所需的人员和设备。
该研究所通过卫星图像确认了两处可能的通风井位置，其中一处被认为可能性较大。但如果没有内部设计图，分析人员无法确认其用途或与主控制室的连接情况。
法拉加索表示，这些通风井可能成为深钻武器的弱点，尽管袭击的效果可能仍不明确。
“该设施并非坚不可摧，”他说，“存在可行的打击方案。”
“至少，隧道入口可以被封堵，”法拉加索补充道，称打击还可能向设施内部传递破坏性冲击波。
格拉耶夫斯基表示，封堵入口可以阻止伊朗人员或设备进出，除非伊朗先进行挖掘作业，而这会被美国和以色列的监视系统发现。任何重新打开镐柄山的企图都可能引发新一轮打击。
但伊朗此前曾在导弹隧道入口遭袭击后进行过挖掘修复，这意味着要保持镐柄山处于封闭状态，可能需要持续监视和反复军事行动。
格拉耶夫斯基表示，对镐柄山发动打击可能会让美国在伊朗最突出的剩余核相关设施之一身上取得“象征性胜利”，但无法消除更广泛的伊朗核计划。
“它是价值极高的设施，”她说，“但它并非伊朗核计划的全部。”
Why Trump is suddenly threatening Iran’s last untouched nuclear site
July 27, 2026 2:24pm EDT / Fox News
Experts say the deeply buried site may be beyond the reliable reach of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator
By Morgan Phillips Fox News
President Donald Trump vows to ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, prompting a discussion with Mark Wallace, CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran. Wallace highlights the threat posed by Iran’s hidden ‘Pickaxe Mountain’ nuclear facility, which may contain centrifuges and enriched uranium. He emphasizes the need to neutralize this site and discusses the Iranian regime’s use of nuclear ambitions as leverage against the West.
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President Donald Trump is threatening to strike Iran’s deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility — a site the United States previously left untouched while bombing the country’s other major nuclear sites, raising new questions about what may have changed.
Estimated to lie beneath at least 100 meters of rock near Iran’s damaged Natanz nuclear enrichment complex, Pickaxe was designed to replace an above-ground plant capable of assembling roughly 6,000 advanced centrifuges each year before it was destroyed in 2020.
Iran said the replacement would be larger, more modern and built “in the heart of the mountain.” Analysts believe the tunnels could eventually hold a centrifuge assembly line, an enrichment plant or equipment used in certain nuclear weaponization activities.
Satellite image Pickaxe Mountain(Vantor/Handout via Reuters)
I’VE STUDIED MILITARY STRATEGY. TRUMP NOW FACES IRAN’S OLDEST BATTLEFIELD TRICK
Yet the administration has not said whether it has confirmed that centrifuges were moved inside — or why a site left untouched during earlier attacks now warrants a strike. Military experts also disagree over whether airstrikes could destroy Pickaxe’s interior or merely seal its entrances temporarily.
The same depth that could protect Iran’s nuclear infrastructure may place Pickaxe’s main chambers beyond the reliable destructive reach of America’s most powerful conventional bunker-busting weapon. Bombing its exposed entrances could deny Iran access without destroying the facility or anything stored inside.
Trump said Tuesday that the United States would probably strike the area “pretty soon” and “very heavily.”
TRUMP THREATENS ‘MAJOR MILITARY PUNISHMENT’ FOR IRAN OVER FUTURE HOUTHI ATTACKS
His warning came after The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of centrifuges into Pickaxe last fall. Trump said the transfer “may have” occurred but added that the United States did not have it “on record.”
“Maybe this one they have right,” Trump said. “But it’s okay. It doesn’t mean anything unless they have the material.”
A satellite view shows an overview of the Natanz nuclear facility and Pickaxe Mountain, near Natanz, Iran, June 30, 2026(Vantor/Handout via Reuters)
“We follow the material,” he added.
TRUMP SEEKS $672M TO STOP IRANIAN NUKES AS NEGOTIATORS WEIGH FATE OF URANIUM STOCKPILE
By “the material,” Trump was referring to Iran’s enriched uranium, including uranium gas that centrifuges can further enrich to weapons-grade levels.
Before the June 2025 attacks, the International Atomic Energy Agency had verified that Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, enough, if further enriched, for approximately 10 nuclear weapons under the agency’s standard measurement.
Most of the stockpile was believed to have been held at Isfahan, with additional material at Natanz and Fordow. Inspectors have since been unable to verify its amount, condition or present location.
The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the material remains trapped at those three sites and does not believe enriched uranium has entered Pickaxe.
The administration has not said whether the United States independently corroborated the reported Israeli assessment, whether centrifuges are being stored or installed inside Pickaxe or whether nuclear material has entered the facility.
Storing centrifuges would not make Pickaxe an operational enrichment plant. The machines would have to be installed in connected cascades, linked to electrical, ventilation and piping systems and fed uranium gas.
Satellite imagery shows continued construction but no indication that Pickaxe is operational, according to the Washington-based institute. Images from February showed Iran adding concrete, rock and reinforced structures over tunnel portals in an apparent effort to harden them against airstrikes.
Analysts also observed smaller closed-roof vehicles near the entrances that could indicate Iran was outfitting the interior. The imagery could not establish what the vehicles carried.
Spencer Faragasso, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Science and International Security, said earlier U.S. and Israeli attacks prioritized Iran’s operating enrichment program. Based on what was understood about Pickaxe at the time, he said, there was “nothing of priority” inside that warranted expending valuable deep-penetrating weapons.
“The facility is still under construction, and it’s unlikely that a centrifuge plant is operating inside there,” Faragasso told Fox News Digital.
But Faragasso said centrifuges could have entered aboard covered trucks without being detected in commercial imagery, making the reported Israeli intelligence plausible but impossible for outside analysts to confirm.
The reported transfer could help explain Trump’s recent focus on Pickaxe, he said. The facility is also one of the last nuclear-related sites of its size that has not been struck.
Trump did not publicly name Pickaxe during the opening months of Operation Epic Fury. It entered his public rhetoric July 13, when conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt raised the facility during an interview.
Trump said American surveillance had detected no activity there but called Pickaxe a possible target for a “nice big fat shot right into the front door.”
At the end of the interview, Hewitt urged Trump to “go get Pickaxe Mountain.”
“We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain,” Trump replied. “Tell the Iranians to be ready.”
The White House could not be reached for comment for this story.
The administration has not explained whether the recent threats reflect new intelligence, an effort to deter Iran from activating the facility or a shift from destroying existing enrichment capacity to preventing Iran from rebuilding.
Whether the United States could destroy Pickaxe from the air remains disputed.
Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po and nonresident scholar in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program, said it would be “very close to impossible” to destroy the facility through an air campaign like the one the United States carried out against Fordow.
People stand on a bridge destroyed after a strike in Hormozgan province, southern Iran, Saturday, July 18, 2026.(Amirhosein Khorgooi/Iranian Students’ News Agency via AP)
Pickaxe is deeper and more heavily fortified, she said, and does not have a publicly confirmed structural weakness comparable to those exploited there.
Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding, a former B-2 operations commander, said planners would first determine whether the mission required destroying Pickaxe’s interior or merely preventing Iran from using it.
“You assess what the goals are, and then you assess the costs associated with making something not fit for use — or destruction,” Spalding said.
If destroying the facility proved infeasible, he said, the U.S. could instead deny access and prevent Iran from bringing in the personnel and equipment needed to operate it.
The institute has identified two possible ventilation-shaft locations through satellite imagery, including one it considers probable. Without internal schematics, however, analysts cannot confirm their purpose or connection to the main chambers.
Faragasso said the shafts could provide weak points for deep-penetrating weapons, although the results of an attack might remain unclear.
“The facility is not invulnerable,” he said. “There are options.”
“At the minimum, the tunnel entrances can be collapsed,” Faragasso added, saying a strike could also send damaging shock waves into the facility.
Grajewski said collapsing the portals would prevent Iran from moving personnel or equipment in or out without first undertaking an excavation visible to American and Israeli surveillance. Any effort to reopen Pickaxe could trigger another strike.
But Iran has previously excavated entrances to missile tunnels after they were attacked, meaning keeping Pickaxe closed could require continued surveillance and repeated military action.
Grajewski said a strike could provide the U.S. with a “symbolic win” against one of Iran’s most prominent remaining nuclear-related facilities but would not eliminate the broader program.
“It is a very high-value facility,” she said. “But it’s not the entirety of the Iranian nuclear program.”