2026-06-09T16:03:41.016Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
- 美国社保退休信托基金将于2032年底耗尽，比此前预测的时间提前了一个季度。
- 到那时，薪资税仅能覆盖应发福利的78%。
- 此次预测调整源于多重因素，其中包括唐纳德·特朗普总统此前推出的全面国内政策一揽子计划。
本文由AI生成摘要，并经CNN编辑审核。
根据美国社保基金受托人周二发布的年度报告，如果国会不采取措施稳固该项目的财政状况，数千万退休人员和其他美国民众将在六年后面临月度社保支票金额缩水的问题。
受托人表示，用于向老年人和已故工人遗属发放福利的社保退休信托基金预计将于2032年底耗尽，比此前预测提前了一个季度。届时，薪资税收入和其他收入来源仅能覆盖78%的应发福利。
这意味着下一任总统可能不得不直面社保体系岌岌可危的财政状况，这一议题长期以来被视为美国政坛的“禁忌雷区”。如果预计的资不抵债日期仍仅在数年之后，该问题可能会在2028年总统大选期间占据更突出的位置。
受托人报告显示，社保退休和残疾信托基金的总额预计将于2034年耗尽，与去年的预测一致。届时，薪资税收入和其他收入来源仅能覆盖83%的应发福利。
残疾保险信托基金预计至少可以足额发放福利至2100年，即该预测周期的截止年份。
合并这两项信托基金需要国会立法，但合并后的预测数据常被用于展示该项目的整体财政状况。
医保的财政前景也略有恶化。其医院保险信托基金，即医保A部分，预计将能够支付预定的住院医疗福利至2033年第二季度，比去年该项目受托人发布的报告提前了一个季度。届时，医保仅能支付89%的预定A部分福利，该部分福利还涵盖临终关怀、住院后的短期专业护理机构服务以及家庭健康服务。
覆盖医生诊疗服务和医疗用品的医保B部分，以及覆盖处方药的医保D部分，资金来源于参保者保费和联邦拨款，二者每年都会根据成本进行调整，其信托基金财政状况稳健。
医保受托人预测，标准月度B部分保费将从今年的202.90美元上涨至2027年的209.50美元。最终金额将在今年秋季敲定。
据受托人数据，截至2025年底，约有6200万人领取了社保退休和遗属福利，另有800万美国人领取了残疾福利。去年有超过6900万人参保医保。
社保和医保的财政状况长期以来一直存在问题，主要原因是美国人口老龄化加剧且人均寿命延长。不过，由于在职劳动者缴纳的薪资税会为这些项目提供资金支持，它们不会彻底耗尽资金。
此次预测调整源于多重因素，其中包括特朗普总统去年夏天签署生效的全面国内政策一揽子法案——《宏大美好法案》。该法案除了将下调所得税税率永久化之外，还包含了一项针对老年人的提高减免额度条款。这些条款将导致社保福利缴纳的税款减少，进而减少流入社保和医保信托基金的收入。
“国会去年又为老年人推出了一项税收减免政策，反而让未来年轻劳动者背负了更大的账单，这进一步恶化了社保的财政状况，”卡托研究所（一家自由意志主义智库）预算与权益政策主任罗米娜·博恰说道。
受托人表示，社保资不抵债日期提前的其他原因包括预测生育率下降，以及美国临时移民和非法移民数量的预估减少。
特朗普的驱逐移民政策引发了一些社保倡导者的担忧，他们表示，许多移民尽管可能永远没有资格领取福利，但仍在缴纳税款。
“这是首份将特朗普第二任期政策纳入考量的社保受托人报告，”倡导组织“社保权益”主席南希·奥特曼说道。她指出，特朗普“对移民的敌意”、税改法案以及其他举措正在减少信托基金的收入来源。
对于医保而言，受托人预测，除了《宏大美好法案》的影响之外，某些医疗服务的使用量增加以及医保优势计划的支出增长也将带来额外压力。
社保专家和支持者借此次报告发布之际，再次呼吁议员们应对迫在眉睫的资金短缺问题。
国会一直不愿采取行动，因为相关解决方案可能涉及一些艰难的决策。此外，老年人是具有影响力的投票群体。
可选方案包括提高薪资税率、推迟民众开始领取福利或全额退休福利的年龄、提高薪资税征收的收入上限、削减福利或年度福利增长幅度等多项提议。
“这应该是一记警钟：国会必须采取行动，”美国退休人员协会（AARP）首席执行官迈基亚·明特-乔丹说道。“美国人辛勤工作，一辈子都在为社保体系缴费，他们理应在退休时依靠这份保障。任何家庭都不应看到他们应得的社保福利被削减。”
你的社保福利是否跟上了通胀？请告诉我们
根据美国老年公民联盟最近的一项研究，自2016年以来，社保福利的购买力已经下降了近14%。要恢复其价值，月度支票金额需要增加近300美元。
你是否作为社保领取者，因生活成本上涨而更难依靠月度福利维持生计？请分享你的故事。
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本文已更新补充更多信息。
Social Security retirement trust fund will run dry in 2032 unless Congress acts
2026-06-09T16:03:41.016Z / CNN
- Social Security’s retirement trust fund will run dry by late 2032, one quarter earlier than previously projected.
- At that point, payroll taxes will cover only 78% of benefits owed.
- The change in the forecast is due to several factors, including President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda package.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
Tens of millions of retirees and other Americans could see smaller monthly Social Security checks in six years if lawmakers don’t act to shore up the program’s finances, according to an annual report released Tuesday by Social Security’s trustees.
Social Security’s retirement trust fund — which helps support payments to senior citizens and survivors of deceased workers — is expected to be exhausted in late 2032, which is one quarter earlier than previously forecast, according to the trustees. At that time, payroll tax revenue and other income sources will be able to cover only 78% of benefits owed.
That means the next president could be faced with having to address Social Security’s shaky finances, which have long been considered a third rail in American politics. The issue could play a more prominent role in the 2028 presidential campaign if the projected expected insolvency date remains only a few years away.
The combined Social Security’s retirement and disability trust funds — are expected to be exhausted in 2034, the same as last year’s forecast, according to the trustees. At that time, payroll tax revenue and other income sources will be able to cover only 83% of benefits owed.
The Disability Insurance Trust Fund is expected to be able to cover full benefits at least through 2100, when the projection period ends.
Merging the two trust funds would require an act of Congress, but the combined projection is often used to show the overall status of the program.
Medicare’s fiscal outlook also worsened slightly. Its hospital insurance trust fund, known as Medicare Part A, is expected to be able to cover scheduled inpatient hospital benefits until the second quarter of 2033, one quarter earlier than last year’s report from the program’s trustees. At that time, Medicare will be able to pay only 89% of scheduled Part A benefits, which also cover hospice care, short-term skilled nursing facility services and home health services following hospitalizations.
Medicare Part B, which covers physician services and medical supplies, and Part D, which covers prescription drugs, are financed through beneficiary premiums and federal contributions that are adjusted annually to cover costs. Their trust fund is fiscally sound.
The Medicare trustees project the standard monthly Part B premium will jump to $209.50 in 2027, from $202.90 this year. The amount will not be finalized until this fall.
Some 62 million people received Social Security retirement and survivors benefits at the end of 2025, while 8 million Americans received disability benefits, according to the program’s trustees. More than 69 million people were enrolled in Medicare last year.
Social Security’s and Medicare’s finances have long been troubled, largely because the nation’s population is getting older and living longer. They will not run out of money, however, since current workers are paying payroll taxes, which support the programs.
The change in the forecast is due to several factors, including President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda package, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he signed into law last summer. In addition to making permanent lower income tax rates, the law contained an enhanced deduction for senior citizens. The provisions will result in less tax being paid on Social Security benefits, which will reduce the revenue flowing to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
“Congress made Social Security’s finances even worse by giving seniors yet another tax break last year, while sending a bigger bill to younger workers tomorrow,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.
Other reasons behind the acceleration of Social Security’s insolvency date include reductions in the projected fertility rate and in the estimated number of temporary and undocumented immigrants in the US, the trustees said.
Trump’s deportation efforts have raised red flags among some Social Security advocates, who say many immigrants pay taxes even though some may never be eligible to collect benefits.
“This is the first Social Security trustees report that begins to take Donald Trump’s second term policies into account,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group. She noted that his “hostility to immigrants” and tax bill, as well as other measures, are reducing the trust fund’s revenue stream.
For Medicare, the trustees forecast higher usage of certain medical services and greater spending in Medicare Advantage, in addition to the impact from the “big, beautiful bill.”
Social Security experts and supporters used the report’s release to renews their calls for lawmakers to address the looming shortfall.
Congress has been loath to do so since the fixes could involve some tough decisions. Plus, older Americans are an influential voting bloc.
The options include raising the payroll tax rate; delaying the ages when people can start collecting benefits or receiving their full retirement payments; increasing the amount of income subject to the payroll tax; and curtailing benefits or the rate at which they increase annually, among other proposals.
“This should be a wake-up call: Congress needs to act,” said Myechia Minter-Jordan, CEO of AARP. “Americans have worked hard and paid into Social Security their entire lives, and they deserve to count on it when they retire. No family should see any cuts to what they’ve earned in Social Security.”
Are your Social Security benefits keeping up with inflation? Tell us about it
Social Security benefits have lost nearly 14% of their buying power since 2016, according to a recent study from The Senior Citizens League. To restore their value, monthly checks would have to increase by nearly $300.
Are you a Social Security recipient who is having a harder time making ends meet on your monthly benefit because of the increased cost of living? Share your story.
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This story has been updated with additional information.