2026-08-07T05:04:21.147Z / 路透社
8月7日（路透社）——美联储主席凯文·沃什希望债券市场发挥主导作用，主张应由市场更多地承担起确定美国资金价格的职责。
自他就任主席以来主持首次政策会议的七个星期里，这场长期沉寂的经济学争论迎来了一场动荡且代价高昂的考验：央行发布的信息在何种临界点会过多，以至于货币政策无法有效发挥作用？在近年来市场已经习惯了美联储提供大量指引的情况下，投资者会如何应对经济数据及其他动态，同时收到的美联储指引却有所减少？
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这一问题的最新答案将于周五上午揭晓，届时将公布7月就业报告，这是衡量经济状况的关键指标，许多投资者认为当前美国经济已经过热。
沃什的沟通政策转变所带来的代价，在上周美联储最新政策会议后的新闻发布会上已显露无遗。市场此前普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变——期货市场仅认为加息概率为三分之一——但真正令投资者不安的是，美联储没有就后续政策走向给出任何明确信号。
较长期国债收益率随即攀升，30年期国债收益率触及2007年以来的最高水平，10年期国债收益率则达到2025年1月以来的点位。
受伊朗局势起伏影响，油价在美联储会议前大幅波动，这重新引发了外界对沃什抗击通胀决心的质疑。此后收益率随油价小幅回落，但对许多投资者而言，沟通策略转变将如何在市场中发酵的问题仍远未得到解决。
“沃什的期望与市场的诉求之间存在紧张关系，”双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）投资组合经理、全球主权及新兴市场主管比尔·坎贝尔表示。投资者如今必须从有限的指引中推断出这位美联储主席此前曾明确阐述的内容：美联储将如何应对即将公布的经济数据。
“减少指引”意味着什么
美联储关于利率走向的前瞻性指引在2008年之后成为常规操作，当时利率降至零水平，政策制定者通过未来承诺来压低长期借贷成本。
FHN金融公司首席经济学家克里斯·洛表示，当时这一工具发挥了预期作用。但在杰罗姆·鲍威尔执政期间，这一做法愈演愈烈——鲍威尔几乎每次调整利率前都会提前释放信号。洛指出，当需要迅速采取行动时，这种做法可能会束缚美联储的手脚。
市场一直密切关注美联储的“点阵图”利率预测——但随着经济数据变化重塑前景，这些预测往往与实际情况不符。
沃什认为，美联储并不比市场更擅长预测未来，因此美联储的决策应回顾过去，而非展望未来——疫情后的“暂时性通胀”判断就是一个典型例子。
对部分投资者而言，这种模糊性正是政策调整的意义所在。“缩减前瞻性指引背后的战略，是迫使市场承担起责任，借助市场力量来帮助他完成工作，”Sage Advisory联席首席投资官托马斯·乌拉诺说道。
PGIM固定收益部门首席投资策略师、全球债券主管罗伯特·蒂普表示，美联储确定性的减少，迫使投资者自行评估风险，而非依赖美联储的承诺。
他以此前的加息周期作为警示案例：当时鲍威尔在加息的同时，经常口头打压利率预期，削弱了他原本想要实现的紧缩效果。“你需要让环境变得更昂贵，也更不确定一些，”蒂普说道。
金融状况 vs 联邦基金利率与10年期国债收益率
不过，在通胀高企的背景下，这一策略更难获得认同。洛指出，沃什当初提出退居幕后、让市场自行找到均衡水平的主张时，通胀率尚在3%以下且持续下行。而当前通胀率接近4%，洛认为这正是外界对沃什的做法提出大量批评的根源。
不确定性的风险溢价
DRW交易公司市场策略师卢·布里恩认为，市场并非拒绝沃什交付的任务——而是在为没有“导航图”就开展工作的成本定价。“市场希望为此获得补偿，”他说，“而他们获得补偿的方式就是推高利率。”
布里恩认为，这种风险溢价的一部分，反映了外界对沃什是否独立于白宫的持续质疑。即便抛开这一点不谈，布里恩也表示，美联储的影响力并不会因为停止解释政策就消失殆尽。
投资者仍会从政策声明、异议投票和新闻发布会的回答中寻找美联储反应函数的线索。“不管你喜不喜欢，美联储都会留下影响力，”布里恩说道。
其他人指出，尽管沃什保持沉默，但其他美联储政策制定者仍在发表看法。
“目前唯一不提供前瞻性指引的就是沃什本人，”道明证券美国利率策略主管根纳季·戈德伯格表示，“如今是依赖经济数据的相机抉择指引时代。”
坎贝尔表示，就目前而言，沃什的做法尚未解决一个关键的循环问题：沃什希望利率更多由市场和数据而非美联储委员会决定，但市场却在试图揣摩他的反应函数。
与此同时，沃什并未完全锁定这一政策路径。正如洛所指出的，“他们并不一定承诺永远不会再次使用前瞻性指引。”
凯伦·布雷特尔报道；查克·米科拉杰克补充报道；科林·巴尔与安德里亚·里奇编辑
本报守则：路透社信托原则。
Jobs report will offer fresh test of Fed Chairman Warsh’s less-guidance stance
2026-08-07T05:04:21.147Z / Reuters
Aug 7 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh wants the bond market to take the wheel, contending it should do more of the work of setting the price of money in America.
In the seven weeks since his debut policy meeting as chairman, the result has been a volatile, expensive test of a long dormant economic argument: at what point does information from the central bank become too much information for monetary policy to work efficiently? And how will investors react to economic data and other developments with less guidance from the Fed than they have become accustomed to in recent years?
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The latest response to this question will come on Friday morning with the release of the July employment report, a key read on an economy that many investors believe is already running hot.
The price of Warsh’s communications-policy shift became unmistakable at his press conference following the Fed’s most recent policy meeting last week. A rate hold was expected — futures markets saw only a one-in-three chance of a hike — but what rattled investors was the absence of any clear marker for what would come next.
Longer-dated Treasury yields quickly rose, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest level since 2007 and the 10-year yield touching a level last seen in January 2025.
Oil prices spiked heading into the Fed meeting, thanks to the ebb and flow of the Iran war, renewing questions about Warsh’s inflation-fighting resolve. Yields have since declined modestly alongside oil prices, but for many investors the question of how the communications shift will play out in markets is far from settled.
“There is a tension between what Warsh wants versus what the market wants,” said Bill Campbell, portfolio manager and head of global sovereign and emerging markets at DoubleLine Capital. Investors now must infer from limited guidance what the Fed chair once spelled out: how the Fed would respond to incoming data.
WHAT “LESS GUIDANCE” MEANS
Forward guidance, the Fed’s signaling on likely rate paths, became standard after 2008, when rates hit zero and policymakers used future promises to push down long-term borrowing costs.
Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, said the tool worked as intended then. But the habit grew under Jerome Powell, who rarely moved rates without first telegraphing it. This, Low said, can tie the Fed’s hands when quicker action is warranted.
Markets have fixated on the Fed’s “dot plot” rate forecasts — projections that often miss the mark as shifting data reshapes the outlook.
Warsh argues the Fed is no better than markets at forecasting the future, so its decisions should look backward, not forward — with the “transitory” inflation call after the pandemic a case in point.
For some investors, the ambiguity is the point. “The strategy behind pulling back on forward guidance is forcing the market to take responsibility and enlisting the market in helping him do his job,” said Thomas Urano, co-chief investment officer at Sage Advisory.
Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist and head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, says less certainty from the Fed forces investors to price risk themselves rather than lean on Fed promises.
He points to the prior hiking cycle as a cautionary tale, when Powell routinely talked down the rate outlook even while raising rates, softening the tightening he sought. “You need to make it more expensive and a little more uncertain,” Tipp said.
Financial Conditions vs Fed Funds Rate and 10 Year Treasury Yield
The strategy is a harder sell with inflation elevated, though. Low notes that Warsh made the case for stepping back and letting the market find its own equilibrium when the Fed is close to reaching its goals — back when inflation was under 3% and falling. It’s closer to 4% now, which Low sees as the source of much of the criticism aimed at Warsh’s approach.
A PREMIUM FOR UNCERTAINTY
Lou Brien, a market strategist at DRW Trading, argues markets aren’t refusing the job Warsh has handed them — they’re pricing what it costs to do it without a map. “The market wants to be compensated for it,” he said, “and the way they get compensated is through higher interest rates.”
Part of that premium, Brien argues, reflects lingering questions about Warsh’s independence from the White House. Even setting that aside, Brien argues the Fed’s influence doesn’t vanish just because it stops explaining itself.
Investors still parse statements, dissents and press-conference answers for clues to its reaction function. “The Fed casts a shadow, like it or not,” Brien said.
Others point out that other Fed policymakers are still offering their views even as Warsh stays quiet.
“The only one not providing forward guidance at the moment is Warsh,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. “This is the era of contingent guidance because it’s all contingent on the economic data.”
For now, Warsh’s approach hasn’t resolved a key circularity, said Campbell. Warsh wants rates to be driven more by markets and data rather than the committee, while the market tries to divine his reaction function.
Meanwhile, Warsh has left the door open on this approach. As Low notes, “they’re not necessarily committed to never using it again.”
Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Colin Barr and Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.