2026-08-31T17:35:10.665Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
唐纳德·特朗普总统一直在试图提前为共和党国会成员在2026年中期选举中遭遇惨败找借口，但他如今提出的论调完全站不住脚。
他在最近一次采访中的表态，凸显出如果共和党在今年秋季选举中失利，他本人也难辞其咎。
在周日播出的接受福克斯新闻主持人特雷·高迪采访时，特朗普似乎证实了相关报道，即他的中期选举造势活动将主要围绕吹捧自己的执政业绩展开。“我会走出去，像为自己竞选时那样开展拉票活动，”他说道。
随后特朗普抛出了最新的甩锅言论，试图将民众的不满指向国会共和党人，而非他自己。
“但有些人喜欢我的程度超过他们对共和党的好感，”特朗普说，“我的意思是，你没必要为此感到被冒犯。对此你无能为力。”
这呼应了这位总统此前的言论，包括他本月在接受《Punchbowl News》采访时称，选民“对共和党感到愤怒，但不会对我愤怒”。
在选举前数月就提前指责 fellow 共和党同僚，此举非同寻常。
但这同样是错误的。不仅有证据表明特朗普应为共和党在中期选举中的困境负责，而且所谓“很多人喜欢特朗普却不喜欢他所在的政党”的说法也不符合事实。
关于这一点，CNN最近一次民调是在上个月开展的。结果显示共和党形象的负面评价比正面评价低21个百分点：52%的受访者对共和党持负面看法，仅有31%的人持正面看法（其余受访者未发表意见）。
但特朗普的支持率则低32个百分点：66%的美国民众不认可他的表现，仅有34%的人认可。
（支持率通常是对执政表现的衡量标准，而好感度则是对个人魅力的衡量。但两者的数值往往存在相关性。）
本月CBS新闻的民调显示，美国民众对共和党的负面评价为60%对40%。该机构7月的民调则显示，61%的美国人不认可特朗普，认可比例为39%。
马凯特大学法学院7月开展的民调专门针对国会共和党人进行了测试，结果显示民众对他们的看法与对特朗普的看法几乎没有差别。
尽管63%的美国人不认可国会共和党人，认可比例为37%，但他们对特朗普的不认可率为60%，认可率为40%。
该民调还测试了民众对共和党整体形象的看法，结果显示共和党与特朗普的形象差距极小。美国民众对特朗普的负面评价为60%对38%，对共和党的负面评价则为58%对39%。
因此，特朗普的不受欢迎程度与共和党不相上下——尽管他声称民众喜欢他却不喜欢其他共和党人。而这种情况实际上并不寻常。
如今的政客通常比其所在政党以及国会整体团队更受欢迎，因为绝大多数民众普遍厌恶政党政治。事实上，CNN2006年以来的民调数据显示，在67次民调中，有49次至少有50%的美国人不喜欢共和党。
除此之外，几乎没有理由认为共和党的中期选举困境主要是国会共和党人造成的，反而有充分理由证明责任在特朗普身上。
民调显示独立选民正压倒性地反对特朗普。同时越来越多的共和党倾向选民也在一系列议题上对特朗普幻想破灭——这类选民的比例通常达到30%、40%，甚至超过50%。
当总统的支持率像特朗普这样低迷（通常维持在30%出头）时，其所在政党几乎必然会在中期选举中遭遇重大失利。
CNN7月的民调还显示，认为自己的中期选举投票是为了表达反对特朗普的登记选民比例（40%），是表达支持特朗普的选民比例（18%）的两倍。自乔治·W·布什与2006年中期选举以来（当时比例为41%对16%），我们还从未见过如此悬殊的差距。皮尤研究中心的民调也印证了CNN的这一发现。
即便如此，考虑到特朗普的支持率如此糟糕，国会共和党人的表现或许比预期的要好一些。左翼部分人士有些担忧民主党在“通用选票”问题上未能拉开更大领先优势，所谓通用选票即民调人员询问受访者会投票给民主党候选人还是共和党候选人。https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stXOo9RmOVI
甚至在特朗普接受福克斯采访的次日周一，又有新的数据显示特朗普正在打压其支持者基础。
马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校2025年4月的民调显示，74%的特朗普选民曾表示对自己2024年的投票“非常有信心”，而此次最新民调中这一比例已降至58%。
中期选举通常都是对在任总统的全民公投。这场公投对特朗普来说显然并不顺利，因此他试图转移舆论焦点。但数据并不支持他的说法。
Trump’s bogus narrative about the GOP losing in the 2026 midterms
2026-08-31T17:35:10.665Z / CNN
President Donald Trump keeps trying to preemptively blame congressional Republicans if they lose big in the 2026 midterms — but he’s now making an argument that’s flat-out wrong.
His talking point in a recent interview underscored how culpable he would be if his party loses this fall.
In the interview with Fox News host Trey Gowdy that aired Sunday, Trump appeared to confirm reports that his midterm efforts will largely focus on touting his own record. “I’m going to go out, and I’m going to campaign like I did for myself,” he said.
Then Trump slipped in his latest effort to suggest it’s congressional Republicans — not him — whom people dislike.
“But some people like me more than they like the party,” Trump said. “I mean, you can’t be insulted by it. There’s nothing you can do about it.”
This echoes the president’s prior commentary, including telling Punchbowl News this month that voters are “angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me.”
Spending time months before the election pre-blaming your fellow Republicans is remarkable.
But it’s also just wrong. Not only is there evidence that Trump is to blame for his party’s midterm woes, but it’s not true that there are a bunch of people who like Trump but not his party.
The most recent CNN polling on this is from last month. It showed the Republican Party’s image was 21 points underwater; 52% viewed it unfavorably, compared with 31% who viewed it favorably. (The rest offered no opinion.)
But Trump’s approval rating was 32 points underwater; 66% of Americans disapproved of him, while 34% approved.
(Approval is generally a measure of job performance, while favorability is a measure of personal appeal. But the numbers are often correlated.)
CBS News polling this month showed Americans viewed the GOP unfavorably 60%-40%. Its July poll showed Americans disapproved of Trump 61%-39%.
Polling from Marquette University Law School in July specifically tested Republicans in Congress, and it also showed little difference in perceptions between them and Trump.
While Americans disapproved of congressional Republicans 63%-37%, they disapproved of Trump 60%-40%.
The poll also tested the broader party’s image and found little difference between the GOP and Trump. While Americans viewed Trump unfavorably 60%-38%, they viewed the party unfavorably 58%-39%.
So Trump is about as unpopular as the GOP — despite his claims that people like him but not other Republicans. And that’s actually unusual.
Politicians these days are usually more popular than their parties and their broader congressional contingents because clear majorities generally dislike political parties. In fact, in CNN polling dating to 2006, at least 50% of Americans have disliked the GOP in 49 out of 67 polls.
Beyond that, there is little reason to believe the GOP’s midterm problems are predominantly because of congressional Republicans, and all kinds of reason to believe they’re about Trump.
Polling has shown independents turning overwhelmingly against Trump. And it also increasingly shows large numbers of Republican-leaning voters growing disillusioned with Trump on a series of issues — often 30%, 40% or even 50%-plus.
When presidents’ approval ratings are as low as Trump’s (which is generally in the 30s), their party almost always suffers large losses in the midterms.
The July CNN poll also showed that twice as many registered voters said their midterm vote was intended to send a message of opposition to Trump (40%) rather than a message of support for him (18%). We haven’t seen a gap like that on this question since George W. Bush and the 2006 midterms (41%-16%). And the Pew Research Center’s polling echoes CNN’s finding.
If anything, congressional Republicans might be doing a little better than one might expect, given how bad Trump’s numbers are. Some on the left are a little concerned that their party hasn’t opened up a wider lead on the “generic ballot,”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stXOo9RmOVI in which pollsters ask people whether they would vote for a generic Democrat or a generic Republican.
And even on Monday, a day after Trump’s Fox interview aired, there was yet more data showing how Trump has depressed his base.
The percentage of Trump voters who said they were “very confident” about their 2024 vote dropped all the way to 58%— from 74% when the University of Massachusetts Amherst asked the question in April 2025.
Midterms are almost always a referendum on the president. That referendum doesn’t appear to be going well for Trump, so he’s trying to shift the narrative. But the data doesn’t back him up.
