2026-04-09T05:00:00-0400 更新时间：2026年4月9日 / 美国东部时间上午6:06 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：
抗击通胀的战役可能因伊朗局势遭遇重大挫折。
据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻汇总的六项独立预测平均值，本周公布的消费者价格指数预计将显示3月物价按年率增长3.3%。这将是自2024年5月以来的最高通胀率，较2月涨幅接近1个百分点。
消费者价格指数报告将于美国东部时间周五上午8:30发布。
牛津经济研究院在周三的报告中预测：“这场战争对能源价格的影响将推动3月整体CPI通胀率远超3%，4月将突破4%。”
据潘兴资本经济研究所数据，与伊朗局势相关的能源价格上涨推高了通胀压力，美国燃油成本出现至少自1957年以来最大单月涨幅。
这场冲突对各类商品和服务的影响可能持续数月，专家表示，美伊之间为期两周的停火不太可能立即缓解全球能源短缺问题。
由于运输和生产成本上升，燃油价格上涨可能推高包括食品在内的其他商品成本。经济学家将“供应中断时能源价格快速上涨、危机结束后价格缓慢回落”这一现象称为“火箭与羽毛”原则。
年初通胀趋缓
“今年大部分时间里我们都将为此付出代价，”穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，“我们会看到机票价格小幅上涨，食品杂货价格可能也会略高。显然，这涉及到将食品从港口或农场运到商店货架的成本。”
此前，2026年头两个月通胀率按年率放缓至2.4%——虽仍高于美联储2%的目标，但远低于2022年6月创下的9.1%的40年峰值。
甚至在伊朗局势推高油价之前，许多美国人仍在从疫情时期的通胀飙升中恢复，且仍将经济负担能力列为主要担忧。特朗普政府曾表示，“油价将回落至伊朗局势引发的短期中断前美国民众享受的多年低位水平”。
美国周二宣布与伊朗达成停火协议后，美国石油基准价格暴跌近15%，跌至每桶96.41美元。但这仍比战争爆发前高出43%，这意味着消费者可能在未来几周内看不到多少缓解。
据美国国会联合经济委员会少数党民主党议员估算，伊朗局势爆发后的一个月内，消费者已额外支付了84亿美元的燃油成本。包括航空费用和抵押贷款利率上升在内的其他商品和服务价格上涨，也可能给家庭财务带来压力。
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯汀·古尔斯比本月早些时候对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，如果美国人缩减可自由支配支出，物价上涨可能会挤压家庭预算并破坏消费者支出。由于消费支出占每1美元GDP的约70美分，家庭财务受到冲击可能会波及整个经济。
“影响会累积起来”
左翼智库“基础合作组织”政策与宣传主管伊丽莎白·潘科蒂表示，即便在伊朗局势升级之前，部分消费者已显现财务困境迹象。去年从401(k)养老金计划中困难提款的人数创下纪录，而2025年甚至高收入家庭的贷款违约率也有所上升。
“我们已经开始看到信贷违约率上升，储蓄率下降，工资增长确实陷入停滞，”潘科蒂对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻说道，“如果再叠加这场危机，我认为情况将从亮起预警灯升级为拉响重大警报。”
企业也正受到能源价格上涨以及通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的其他关键物资中断的影响。全球约20%的能源供应经这一关键水道运输，包括氦气、铝和化肥在内的其他大宗商品也需通过该海峡。
“牧场里进出的所有东西都靠货运，所以货运成本上涨时，运牛和运饲料的成本都会上升，”总部位于德克萨斯州沃斯堡、向牧场主销售水监测技术的Ranchbot公司首席执行官安德鲁·科平说道，“如今化肥供应短缺，成本也在上涨。”
科平指出，普通牧场主每周驾车约1000英里查看牛群情况。“这些成本会累积起来，而这正是他们本不需要额外负担的时候，”他补充道，并预计由于牧场主面临的成本上升，今年牛肉价格将会上涨。
利率走势如何？
消费者和企业可能短期内无法在借贷成本上获得喘息空间。美联储需要应对通胀上升，以及过去一年从月度失业转为就业增长的劳动力市场状况。
3月，美联储曾预计2026年将降息一次，但今年通胀上升的预期已促使许多经济学家取消了这一降息预测。
海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗在电子邮件中表示：“美联储将长期维持利率不变，直到战争阴云散去，他们能够评估对美国经济的全面影响。”
美联储3月17日至18日的会议纪要于周三公布，此次会议美联储维持借贷成本不变。纪要还显示，美联储19名利率制定委员会成员中的部分官员认为，未来可能有必要考虑加息。
如果说通胀方面有一个亮点，那就是特朗普政府关税的影响已经减弱，实际关税税率目前约为8%。耶鲁大学预算实验室数据显示，这较2025年4月总统首次宣布全面关税时的峰值21%有所下降。
牛津经济研究院美国首席经济学家伯纳德·亚罗斯对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，进口成本上升的影响正在减弱。“大部分关税传导效应已经显现。”
编辑：阿兰·谢特
Inflation was cooling. Now the Iran war could push it back to 2024 levels.
2026-04-09T05:00:00-0400 Updated on: April 9, 2026 / 6:06 AM EDT / CBS News
By
The war on inflation could be in for a major setback due to the Iran war.
The Consumer Price Index this week is expected to show March prices rose at a 3.3% annual pace, the average of six separate forecasts reviewed by CBS News. That would mark the highest inflation rate since May 2024 and an almost 1 percentage-point jump from February.
The CPI report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.
“The impact of the war on energy prices will push headline CPI inflation well above 3% in March and above 4% by April,” Oxford Economics forecast in a report on Wednesday.
Inflationary pressures are being driven by higher energy prices tied to the Iran war, with the U.S. experiencing the largest one-month jump in fuel costs since at least 1957, according to Pantheon Economics.
The conflict’s impact on a wide range of goods and services is likely to last for months, and experts said the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely to immediately ease global energy shortages.
Higher fuel prices could push up the cost of other goods, including food, because of increased transportation and production costs. Energy prices tend to rise quickly during disruptions to oil supplies but fall more slowly after a crisis ends — a phenomenon economists call the “rockets and feathers” principle.
Early-year cooldown
“We’re going to be paying the price for this through much of the year,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at financial research firm Moody’s Analytics, told CBS News. “We should see a bit of a bump in the cost of airline tickets. Grocery prices will probably be a bit higher. Obviously, that goes to transporting food from the port or the farm to the store shelf.”
The expected increase in the CPI comes after inflation cooled to a 2.4% annual rate in the first two months of 2026 — still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but far below the 40-year high of 9.1% recorded in June 2022.
Even before the Iran war sent gas prices soaring, many Americans were still recovering from the pandemic-era inflation spike and continued to citeaffordability as a major concern. The Trump administrationhas said that “gas prices will plummet back to the multi-year lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions” from the Iran war.
After the U.S. announced the truce with Iran on Tuesday, the U.S. oil benchmark tumbled almost 15%, falling to $96.41 a barrel. But that remains 43% higher than just before the war, signaling consumers may not see much relief in the next few weeks.
Consumers have already paid an additional $8.4 billion in fuel costs in the month after the Iran war started, according to an estimate from the Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic minority. Higher prices for other goods and services, from airline fees to higher mortgage rates, could also weigh on household finances.
Rising prices could pressure household budgets and derail consumer spending if Americans pull back on discretionary purchases, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbeetold CBS News earlier this month. Because consumer spending accounts for about 70 cents of every $1 of GDP, a hit to household finances could ripple through the economy.
“It adds up”
Even before the Iran war, some consumers were showing signs of financial distress, said Elizabeth Pancotti, managing director of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, a left-leaning think tank. Hardship withdrawals from 401(k)sreached a record last year, while loandelinquency rates even among higher-income households rose in 2025.
“We had started to see credit delinquencies increase. We had started to see savings rates go down. We have seen wage growth really stagnate,” Pancotti told CBS News. “If you pile on to that, I think you go from flashing warning signs to major flashing alarm bells.”
Businesses are also feeling the impact of higher energy prices, as well as disruptions to other key supplies shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. While about 20% of global energy supplies travel through the vital waterway, other commodities — including helium, aluminum and fertilizer — also pass through the strait.
“Every single thing going in and out of a ranch comes in on freight, and so when freight costs are up, shipping cattle goes up, shipping feed goes up,” said Andrew Coppin, CEO of Ranchbot, a Fort Worth, Texas-based company that sells water-monitoring technology to ranchers. “And now you’ve got a dearth of fertilizer availability, and the cost of fertilizer is going up.”
The average rancher drives about 1,000 miles a week to check on their cattle, Coppin noted. “It adds up, and at a time when they just didn’t need it,” he said, adding that he expects the price of beef to rise this year due to the higher costs facing ranchers.
What’s up with interest rates?
Consumers and businesses may not get a break on borrowing costs any time soon. The Federal Reserve will need to grapple with higher inflation, as well as a labor market that has swung frommonthly job losses to gains over the past year.
In March, the Fed had penciled in one interest rate cut for 2026, but the expectation of higher inflation this year has caused many economists to scrub that cut from their forecasts.
“The Federal Reserve is on a prolonged pause until the fog of war clears and they can assess the full impacts on the U.S. economy,” said Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email.
Minutes released Wednesday of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting, where it held borrowing costs steady, also suggest that some policymakers on the central bank’s 19-member interest-rate setting panel think it may become necessary to consider a future rate hike.
If there’s one bright spot on inflation, it’s that the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs has waned, with the effective tariff rate now at about 8%. That’s down from a peak of 21% in April 2025, when the president first announced his wide-ranging tariffs, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
The impact of higher import costs is now waning, Bernard Yaros. lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told CBS News. “Most of the tariff pass-through has occurred.”
Edited by Alain Sherter