Patients scramble to find estrogen patches as shortage worsens after US FDA champions use

2026-04-09 10:02:48 UTC / Reuters

By Mrinalika Roy and Sriparna Roy

April 9, 2026 10:02 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago

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Item 1 of 3 Amy Satterlund, who is on hormone replacement therapy (HRT), poses for a portrait, in Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S., March 29, 2026. REUTERS/Cheney Orr

[1/3]Amy Satterlund, who is on hormone replacement therapy (HRT), poses for a portrait, in Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S., March 29, 2026. REUTERS/Cheney Orr Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

• Summary
• Companies

• Easing safety warnings, shift in sentiment toward HRT trigger sharp increases in use
• Patients report pharmacy-hopping and dose changes
• Manufacturers say complex production limit rapid scale-up

April 9 (Reuters) – A surge in demand since last year for estrogen patches to ease menopause symptoms has strained supplies and led to shortages, sparking a scramble for medicines that industry sources say could last up to three years.

More than 1 million U.S. women ​begin menopause each year. Over the past two years they have increasingly sought out estrogen patches to treat mood swings, hot flashes and sleep disturbances. Social media in particular has ‌been a forum for changing views on the medicines’ safety and benefits.

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The U.S. FDA began publicly extolling hormone replacement therapy as “lifesaving” last July, and in November it removed a longstanding safety warning from the therapies. The change in the Food and Drug Administration’s stance was followed by a 26% jump in patch use through February, according to data from health data and analytics company Truveta, opens new tab.

“When the FDA removed the safety warning in November, it created unprecedented demand that cannot fully be met at present,” said a spokesperson for ​Swiss generics manufacturer Sandoz SDZ.S, which has shipped additional supplies to the U.S. to help ease shortages.

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The patches are a type of hormone replacement therapy that delivers estrogen directly through the skin into the ​bloodstream.

“For 20 years, less than 5% of women took hormone therapy. Now those numbers are growing… and scaling up production of medications is not as easy as ⁠it might seem,” said Dr. Gillian Goddard, adjunct assistant professor at the NYU Grossman School of Medicine.

While the FDA has not designated the patches as being in shortage, women are pharmacy-hopping in search of them, reducing or ​switching dosages and changing brands or types of therapy, according to interviews with six patients, three telehealth companies, and six industry experts.

Abruptly stopping use can restart symptoms, while switching brands may bring new side effects, doctors said.

Hormone Replacement Therapy Dispenses per 1000 Women By Type

SEARCHING FOR ​SUPPLY

Amy Satterlund, 50, a product manager from Fort Pierce, Colorado, has been using the estrogen patch for about 18 months, but has recently struggled to find it.

She said she has had to plan for shortages at CVS pharmacies and long waits at online pharmacy Cost Plus Drugs.

“I do get nervous if I were unable to get my prescription refilled, that side effects or that the symptoms of perimenopause would come back,” Satterlund said.

A CVS Health CVS.N spokesperson said manufacturers have been unable to deliver sufficient quantities ​in recent weeks.

A Cost Plus spokesperson said it has added supply to keep up with exploding demand, but hasn’t heard from its suppliers on shortages lasting for an extended period of time.

Andrew Nixon, a spokesman for ​the U.S. Health and Human Services Department, which oversees the FDA, said the agency is coordinating with companies to support efforts to boost the supply of patches.

CHANGING GUIDANCE, RISING DEMAND

FDA Commissioner Marty Makary last July turned the tables on previous ‌cautions against HRT ⁠use. In interviews and postings, he said women had been advised against the treatments due to cancer risks, but that the scientific evidence has changed.

The 2002 Women’s Health Initiative study had linked hormone therapy to increased risks for some cancers, dementia, heart attacks and stroke. Now, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists on its website notes risks and benefits to the various types of HRT and advises patients who use them to talk with their doctor every year about whether to continue.

Hormone Replacement Therapy Prescriptions Per 1000 Women

Using its electronic health record database covering more than 130 million patients in all 50 states, Truveta found use of most forms of HRT has climbed in recent years, with the sharpest ​increase a 184% jump in estrogen patches since 2023. ​Vaginal cream HRT use rose 122% over the ⁠same period.

By February 2026, about 5 out of 100 women aged 45-54 had been prescribed estrogen-based HRT, roughly doubling since 2023, based on an analysis of women who had received any medical prescription during that period.

Telehealth platform HRT Club, which helps patients access hormone therapies and physicians, said patch sales had risen 150% since the ​FDA’s November actions.

U.S. Estrogen Patch Sales Have Surged In Recent Years

MANUFACTURING BARRIERS

Estrogen patches are generic medicines with low profit margins, providing manufacturers few incentives to invest quickly in new production lines or facilities that ​can take years to build.

Long-term contracts ⁠for supplies can also hinder manufacturers from quickly adjusting to demand changes, industry sources and doctors said.

Major makers of the patches, including Amneal AMRX.O, Zydus ZYDU.NS, Sandoz, Noven, and Viatris VTRS.O, all have some doses in shortage, according to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists.

Amneal and Viatris said they were trying to boost patch supply to meet demand. Zydus and Noven did not respond to a request for comment.

Dr. Mary Rosser, an Ob-Gyn and director of Integrated Women’s Health at Columbia University, ⁠said the FDA ​does have ways to mitigate shortages. These could include requiring manufacturers to have more diverse and back-up supply chains, and mandating ​minimum inventories and proactive inventory monitoring systems, she said.

The FDA declined to comment on such options.

“People have waited a long time to make a decision… about whether they want to use hormones,” Rosser said. “Then they make the decision and then they can’t get them.”

Reporting by Mrinalika Roy, Mariam Sunny, and Sriparna Roy in Bengaluru; Editing by Caroline Humer and Bill Berkrot

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西班牙外交部长阿尔瓦雷斯谴责以色列星期三对黎巴嫩发动的袭击。 （法新社）

西班牙外交部长阿尔瓦雷斯指责以色列星期三（4月8日）对黎巴嫩发动的空袭，违反了国际法以及刚达成、为期两周的中东停火协议。

路透社报道，阿尔瓦雷斯星期四（9日）在议会下议院对议员们说：“昨天我们看到，以色列无视停火协议，违反国际法，向黎巴嫩投掷了数百枚炸弹。”

西班牙已成为对美国和以色列在伊朗和黎巴嫩的行动批评最为激烈的西方国家之一。马德里方面称这些行动鲁莽且非法，并已禁止任何卷入冲突的飞机进入领空。

阿尔瓦雷斯此前宣布西班牙将重开驻德黑兰大使馆，以期实现中东地区的和平。 他告诉记者：“我已经指示我方驻德黑兰大使返回，重新就任，并重新开放我方大使馆。”

他说，他已指示西班牙驻伊朗大使桑切斯-贝内迪托返回伊朗首都德黑兰，重新开放于3月7日起因美国和以色列空袭而暂时关闭的西班牙驻伊朗大使馆。

新华社引述阿尔瓦雷斯说，这一决定是基于美国和伊朗达成为期两周的停火协议而作出的。西班牙希望借此鼓励各方致力于谈判，推动地区和平稳定。

阿尔瓦雷斯同时谴责以色列星期三对黎巴嫩发动的袭击。他强调，地区局势原本出现“一线希望”，以色列对黎巴嫩的袭击是“对全人类良知的真正羞辱”。

岌巴和丹戎巴葛码头现址将填海造地 为南部濒水区发展铺路

2026年4月9日 19:43 / 联合早报

岌巴和丹戎巴葛码头现址将填海造地 为南部濒水区发展铺路

岌巴码头、丹戎巴葛码头和布拉尼岛码头的业务，预计将在2027年底前，逐步迁至大士港口，让填海工程得以开展。 （叶振忠摄）

我国南部市区码头预计明年底迁至大士港口后，建屋发展局计划在岌巴码头和丹戎巴葛码头现址展开填海工程，以造地衔接至滨海湾，为这个地段日后的重新发展及增建海岸防护设施铺路。

这是南部濒水区发展的一部分，从巴西班让延伸至滨海东，拟议填海造出约213公顷土地，面积相当于300多个足球场，为我国提供额外的永久土地供日后发展用途。

建屋局在官网发布这项填海工程的环境影响评估报告显示，填海工程将分两个阶段展开，第一阶段预计耗时三年，填充滨海湾游轮中心西南方向的一小块海域，形成一处尖型的突出陆地；第二阶段则将耗时超过10年，完成从丹戎巴葛码头至岌巴码头的主要填海工程。

这包括拆除现有海堤和码头设施、兴建地基和沙堤，以及填土。

报告没有透露填海工程何时动工，但岌巴码头、丹戎巴葛码头和布拉尼岛码头（Brani Terminal）的业务，料将在2027年底前，逐步迁至大士港口，让填海工程得以开展。

为应对海平面上升带来的威胁，公用事业局早前完成对市区—东海岸海岸线研究后宣布，计划于2030年代，在樟宜和港湾一带的南部濒水区建设海岸防护设施，包括在新加坡本岛、布拉尼岛和圣淘沙之间建造海岸防护墙（coastal barrier）。

东海岸公园外的海域日后也将填海建造人工岛“长岛”（Long Island）。早前公布的初步计划显示，长岛将由三块高于现有土地的填海土地组成，从滨海堤坝延伸至丹那美拉渡轮码头，与东海岸公园平行，总长约18公里，面积约800公顷，相当于两个滨海湾。

根据2025年发展总蓝图草案，南部濒水区（Greater Southern Waterfront）位于吉宝俱乐部前址的地段将率先发展，预计建造9000个新住宅单位，其中包括6000个组屋单位。市区港口活动迁至大士后，岌巴码头和分销园（Distripark）将发展住宅区，也会分阶段铺设滨水步道，连接西海岸公园与滨海湾一带。

环评报告：填海工程料不会对环境带来明显负面影响

建屋局环评报告指出，最终的施工活动还没有敲定，但研究基于最坏情况进行评估后认为，在根据报告建议制定环境监测与管理计划， 并实施恰当的缓解和管理措施的前提下，填海工程料不会对环境带来明显负面或不可接受的影响。

报告建议，环境监测与管理计划应包含对水流、悬浮泥沙、水质、噪音、空气污染、视觉冲击等的监测与控制，对栖息地监测，以及对沉积物溢流的监测。

针对工程对海洋生态和物种多样性的影响，报告指出，由于施工期间沉积情况和悬浮固体浓度（Suspended sediment concentration）将增加，预计会对附近的圣淘沙海岸线和滨海南海岸线的珊瑚和水草，带来最高为轻微负面（minor negative）的影响，对其他区域则没有影响或仅有略微负面（slight negative）影响。

就栖息地丧失而言，总体评估工程将对珊瑚造成中等负面（moderate negative）影响，对滤食性生物和软质海床栖息地造成略微负面影响。但同时，填海后能够形成的新栖息地，则可能带来轻微正面影响。报告也认为，这些局部影响可能是暂时现象，将在达到新平衡状态后随时间推移逐渐减弱。

由于工程需要清除附近陆地的植被，加上噪音污染和粉尘造成的空气污染，预计会对陆地生态和生物多样性产生略微负面影响。

当局邀请公众在5月5日之前，通过线上表格，为环评报告提出反馈。

美联储星期三（4月8日）公布的3月17日至18日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，更多美联储官员对通胀感到担忧。 （路透社）

（华盛顿综合电）美国联邦储备局越来越多官员认为，可能需要调高利率以抑制高油价所造成的通货膨胀压力。

美联储星期三（4月8日）公布的3月17日至18日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，更多美联储官员对通胀感到担忧，敦促同事们考虑在会后声明中提及，若出现特定情况，可能调高利率。

会议纪要写道：“一些与会者认为，有充分理由在会后声明中对委员会未来利率决策采用双向表述，以表明如果通胀维持在目标水平之上，上调联邦基金利率目标区间可能是适当的。”

相比之下，在1月会议纪要中，认为可能须要加息的官员仅有“几位”。在美联储的用语中，“一些”（some）所指的人数多于“几位”（several）。

在3月会议上，美联储连续第二次将利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间不变，但警告中东战争为经济前景带来新的不确定性。美国和以色列2月28日对伊朗开战，伊朗随即封锁石油运输咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡，导致油价飙涨。

延伸阅读

鲍威尔：美联储暂不因伊朗战争加息
油价上涨如何让美联储决策更棘手？

美联储肩负着双重使命，既要将通胀率降至2%的目标，也要最大程度促进就业。加息虽有助于抑制通胀，但会加剧经济下行压力，推高失业率；降息可刺激经济活动和就业，但会推高物价。

根据会议纪要，美联储多名官员指出，在油价持续上涨的情况下，通胀高企的风险可能会持续比预期更长的时间。

他们担忧中东冲突引发的高油价效应可能外溢到不包括食物和能源价格的核心通胀，也担忧通胀连续几年高于目标水平后，民众的长期通胀预期可能对能源价格的上涨更为敏感。

他们指出，若战争旷日持久，通胀向2%目标回落的速度可能比此前预期更慢，并认为通胀持续高于2%的风险已有所上升。

桑坦德集团首席美国经济师斯坦利说，会议纪要显示，美联储认为通胀和就业方面的风险都在上升，同时也担心战争若拖得更久，风险将进一步加剧。

在3月会议上，大多数美联储官员预期失业率会保持平稳，但认为就业市场的风险偏向下行。

在会议过后发布的预测中，美联储官员暗示今年可能会有一次降息，这与去年12月的预测相同。不过根据联邦基金期货市场的反应，投资者不认为美联储会在今年内降息。

Pentagon’s ouster of Anthropic opens doors for small AI rivals

2026-04-09 10:03:34 UTC / Reuters

By Mike Stone

April 9, 2026 10:03 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago

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U.S. Department of War and Anthropic logos are seen in this illustration created on March 1, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) – Small defense industry artificial intelligence startups are suddenly fielding calls from generals, combatant commanders and deep-pocketed investors, after the souring relationship between the Pentagon and its ​once-favored AI vendor, Anthropic, reinforced the need to diversify and increase the number of AI providers for the military.

In the weeks since the Department of Defense’s troubled ‌relationship with Anthropic burst into public view and led to the company being kicked out of the U.S. military, new defense-focused AI companies like Smack Technologies and EdgeRunner AI say they have experienced a shift in interest that would have been unimaginable just months ago. They have received a surge of overtures about possible contracts and meeting requests and been approached by investors who previously showed no interest.

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The Pentagon’s growing animosity toward its top AI provider, Anthropic, has opened ​up opportunities for smaller rivals, who have long sought a foot in the door to the most lucrative government contractor in the world. A defense contract can lead to more ​business with other branches of the U.S. government, and is a useful signal of trust and safety for potential commercial clients.

“We’ve seen a massive ⁠increase in demand from customers and the government to get AI solutions fielded since Anthropic was declared a supply-chain risk,” said Tyler Sweatt, CEO of Second Front, a company that helps technology firms ​meet the requirements needed to operate on secure Pentagon networks. “Our customers are turning to us as the Pentagon turns to them to deploy quickly in the wake of the Anthropic blowup.”

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Since the Pentagon deemed ​Anthropic’s products a “supply-chain risk” in March and the two sides became embroiled in a lawsuit, the military has expressed increasing interest in AI startups like Smack Technologies, saying, “We want more, we want demos, let’s talk about how we can move faster,” said Andrew Markoff, co-founder and chief executive of the 19-person startup based in El Segundo, California. In late March, a judge temporarily blocked the Pentagon’s blacklisting of Anthropic.

Tyler Saltsman, co-founder and chief executive of EdgeRunner AI, described ​a similar experience. His company had been waiting more than a year for a Space Force contract to clear the Pentagon’s procurement machinery. It was signed within weeks of the Anthropic situation breaking ​into the open. “I can’t prove that the Anthropic drama sped this up,” Saltsman said, “but I have a sneaky suspicion it did.”

“The Pentagon will continue to rapidly deploy frontier AI capabilities to the warfighter through strong industry partnerships ‌across all ⁠classification levels,” a Pentagon official said.

One Pentagon technologist has previously told Reuters that the falling-out with Anthropic, and the realization that the Defense Department was heavily dependent on one AI provider, forced the department to diversify AI providers.

SMACK’S MARINE CORPS CONTRACT SPEEDS UP

For Smack, the clearest example of the post-Anthropic acceleration involves the Marine Corps. The company won a contract with the Marine Corps in March 2025 and delivered a successful prototype by October — software that compresses what is normally a months-long operational planning process into roughly 15 minutes.

Despite the successful prototype, momentum stalled. Full production had been budgeted for fiscal year ​2027 — meaning October 2027 at the earliest. Through ​the 2025 holiday period and into early 2026, ⁠there was no clear direction.

Then the Anthropic uproar occurred. Within weeks, Smack was invited to multiple meetings with the Marine Corps focused on a single question: how fast can this move into production this year? Markoff said there was “very specific guidance and movement and energy” toward getting the prototype ready ​for combat operations in 2026 — an acceleration of more than a year.

The shift extended beyond the Marines. Smack holds contracts with the Navy and ​Air Force, and Markoff ⁠said interest came in nearly immediately from U.S. Special Operations Command, and others.

EdgeRunner, which is deploying with the Army Special Forces groups and has received a contract with the Space Force, said the Navy has also dramatically sped up engagement. Meetings that had been biweekly or monthly are now happening multiple times a week.

Both EdgeRunner and Smack are now racing to get their systems operating at higher security classification levels — the ⁠gateway to the ​most operationally significant use cases and the largest military contracts.

EdgeRunner said the military has told the company it can get ​to IL-6, a security designation enabling access to secret and top-secret data, within three months — a timeline Saltsman described as remarkable, given that the process normally takes 18 months or longer. The acceleration, he said, is being driven partly by pressure ​from Pentagon leadership to cut through procurement bureaucracy, and partly by the urgency the Anthropic situation has injected into the department’s AI strategy.

Reporting by Mike Stone in Washington Editing by Chris Sanders and Matthew Lewis

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印度地方选举开跑 执政党面临燃料短缺等民生挑战

2026年4月9日 19:40 / 联合早报

印度星期四（4月9日）开启为期近一个月的地方选举，阿萨姆邦达朗县的选民当天乘船渡过布拉马普特拉河，去投票站投票。

四个邦和一个联邦直辖区的数百万选民将陆续参与投票，所有地区投票结果预计于5月4日公布。

总理莫迪领导的印度人民党试图在各邦扩大影响力。当前中东局势严峻，印度经济增长前景也不明朗，当局如何应对中东危机引发的液化石油气短缺和工业生产中断等问题，已成为核心课题。（法新社）

菲律宾南中国海新指挥中心启用

2026年4月9日 19:54 / 联合早报

菲律宾海岸警卫队在有争议的南沙群岛最重要的战略前哨派格阿萨岛设立的新指挥中心，星期四（4月9日）正式启用。 （法新社）

菲律宾海岸警卫队在有争议的南沙群岛最重要的战略前哨派格阿萨岛设立的新指挥中心，星期四（4月9日）正式启用。 （法新社）

（派格阿萨岛综合电）菲律宾海岸警卫队在南中国海有主权争议的派格阿萨岛新设立的指挥中心正式启用，此举预计会加剧中菲两国在南中国海的紧张局势。

新的指挥中心辖区面积约6万8000平方公里，此前由邻近的巴拉望岛管辖。

菲海岸警卫队司令加万星期四（4月9日）在启用仪式后说，派格阿萨岛（Pagasa Island，中国称中业岛）指挥中心将有一名准将级指挥官坐镇，配备一艘常驻舰艇、多艘应急船及多名专家。当局还会在此疏浚更深的港口，以便让大型菲海警船停靠。

派格阿萨岛所在的南沙群岛是南中国海主权争议区的热点，中菲船只多次在此发生冲突。

法新社记者受邀参观新指挥中心时，看到几艘中国海警船在附近海域巡逻，并向记者乘坐的飞机发出无线电警告。

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菲律宾重新命名南中国海逾百座岛屿 中菲紧张局势料加剧
菲官员访中业岛宣誓主权 手机接“欢迎来到中国”漫游短信

另据路透社报道，菲海岸警卫队星期四发声明指责北京在菲海警巡逻期间，向菲方飞机发射照明弹，违反了国际航空安全准则，且直接危及机上人员安全。

报道没有指明此事是否与菲方指挥中心启用有关。

中国国防部新闻发言人张晓刚当天在例行记者会上，针对菲方称中国近期在南中国海对菲舰船和人员“危险操作”时强调，中方维护自身领土主权和海洋权益的决心坚定不移，坚决回击任何侵权挑衅行径。

他说，近来菲方侵闯中国黄岩岛、南沙岛礁海空域，蓄意冲闯中方演训区，甚至危险接近中方舰艇，一再对中方侵权滋扰，在亚太地区制造不安全、不稳定风险。“我们敦促菲方停止倚外闹海、制造事端，否则只会自食苦果。”

Emperor penguins listed as endangered species by worldwide tracking organization

Updated on: April 9, 2026 / 6:09 AM EDT / AFP

The emperor penguin has been declared an endangered species as climate change pushes the icon of Antarctica a step closer to extinction, the global authority on threatened wildlife announced Thursday.

Its change of status from “near threatened” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) underscores the existential threat to ice-dependent species as global warming profoundly reshapes the frozen continent.

Emperor penguins rely on sea ice to live, hunt and breed. The early break-up and loss of these platforms of frozen ocean water has caused their numbers to plummet.

The IUCN — a global network of scientists, governments and conservation groups — said changes in sea ice caused by climate change were expected to halve the emperor penguin population by the 2080s.

They “concluded that human-induced climate change poses the most significant threat to emperor penguins,” Philip Trathan, part of the IUCN expert group who worked on the Red List assessment, said in a statement.

The Red List of Threatened Species is maintained by the IUCN and is the world’s most comprehensive information source on the extinction status of plants, animals and fungi.

There are six classifications, from “least concern” to “extinct.” Those ranked as “endangered” are two steps below “extinction in the wild,” which denotes a species surviving only in captivity and not in nature.

The Antarctic fur seal — once hunted to near extinction by humans seeking their pelts — was also moved to the endangered category, their numbers having plunged more than 50% since 1999.

How climate change is endangering emperor penguins

“The ongoing decline is due to climate change, as rising ocean temperatures and shrinking sea ice are pushing krill to greater ocean depths in search of colder water, reducing the availability of food for seals,” the IUCN said.

The largest and heaviest of their species, boasting a brilliant golden-orange streak on the neck and chest, emperor penguins have become symbolic of the quest to thrive and survive in Antarctica’s harsh climes.

Emperor penguin with chicks, Aptenodytes forsteri, Snow Hill Island, Antartic Peninsula, Antarctica. Getty Images

They breed on the sea ice in the dead of winter, the males relying on the flat surface to keep their eggs warm beneath their feet. The sea ice also provides a habitat for chicks and during the moulting season before they are waterproof.

But climate change is making sea ice less stable, causing its retreat or early-break up in spring.

Sea ice has been at record low levels since 2016 and the impact on emperor penguins has been well documented. Satellite imagery indicates around 20,000 adults — some 10% of the population — disappeared between 2009 and 2018 alone.

“This species is closely associated with sea ice and ice packs,” Christophe Barbraud, a scientist at French research institute CNRS, told AFP.

“However, since 2016-2017, there has been a significant decrease in the extent of sea ice around Antarctica, and therefore without sea ice, it will have great difficulty surviving.”

Trathan said emperor penguins were “a sentinel species that tell us about our changing world and how well we are controlling greenhouse gas emissions that lead to climate change.”

The IUCN also moved the southern elephant seal from “least concern” to “vulnerable” following population declines caused by a deadly contagious pathogen.

霍尔木兹危机：能源武器化与美中博弈 | 世界大解说

2026年4月9日 17:00 / 联合早报 李佳佳

过去一个多月，位于中东波斯湾的霍尔木兹海峡局势持续紧张。2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动“史诗狂怒”军事打击之后，伊朗史无前例地封锁了这条“世界油阀”。

随着冲突升级，过往船只通行受阻，全球能源运输一度面临中断风险。油轮滞留观望，部分被迫绕行，保险成本快速上升，市场对供应安全的担忧持续发酵。

就在局势最为紧绷之际，转折出现。在巴基斯坦斡旋下，美国总统特朗普同意在4月7日最后期限前暂停对伊朗的军事行动两周。伊朗随后有条件接受停火安排并同意开放霍尔木兹海峡两周，各方计划于4月10日在伊斯兰堡展开谈判。

本期《世界大解说》，带你看懂霍尔木兹海峡危机如何牵动全球，以及这场风暴背后，更深层的战略较量与未来走向。

• 00:00 霍尔木兹危机：能源武器化与美中博弈

• 01:16 世界油阀：被掐住的全球能源命脉

• 05:30 美国困局：从速战速决到进退两难

• 09:53 中国抉择：能源安全与战略克制之间

• 12:44 秩序重塑：能源武器化与大国新博弈

• 15:26 短暂停火：风暴暂停，还是更大变局的开始？

作为全球最重要的能源通道之一，霍尔木兹海峡连接波斯湾与外海，承担着全球近四分之一的原油运输。一旦受阻，影响将迅速传导至能源价格与全球供应链。冲突期间，市场情绪紧绷，油价剧烈波动，通胀压力随之外溢至全球多个经济体。

https://fastly-signed-ap-southeast-1-prod.brightcovecdn.com/image/v1/static/4802324430001/b444de38-57a4-494d-9673-9c506d807da2/b787275c-bb19-4ded-b24d-73e185af6a11/1280×720/match/image.jpg?fastly_token=NjlmZjFjZDZfMTJiZjdjOTA4YzNiMjQ2YTdiMmM5NWI4NWU3ODJhZWM0OGMyMDg0NGYyNWU0ZGIzNzc3OGRhZjA4NjQ2NTQ1ZV9odHRwczovL2Zhc3RseS1zaWduZWQtYXAtc291dGhlYXN0LTEtcHJvZC5icmlnaHRjb3ZlY2RuLmNvbS9pbWFnZS92MS9zdGF0aWMvNDgwMjMyNDQzMDAwMS9iNDQ0ZGUzOC01N2E0LTQ5NGQtOTY3My05YzUwNmQ4MDdkYTIvYjc4NzI3NWMtYmIxOS00ZGVkLWIyNGQtNzNlMTg1YWY2YTExLzEyODB4NzIwL21hdGNoL2ltYWdlLmpwZw%3D%3D

特朗普为什么宣布停火？

其他替代绕行管道的运力都无法企及霍尔木兹海峡，且依然危险重重。（制图／何健伟）

首当其冲的是高度依赖进口能源的亚洲。日本、韩国与印度等国一度面临能源供应不确定性，企业生产与用电安排受到冲击。

新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院副教授顾清扬接受《世界大解说》采访时表示，全球制造业与工业化高度依赖能源。当前局势会成为世界经济的一道分水岭，“过去，经济运行主要是依靠供给跟需求这样的市场的力量；未来，国际地缘政治可能会成为主导世界产业链 、供应链、安全性的至关重要的因素”。

霍尔木兹海峡能源运输量的八成前往亚洲。（制图／何健伟）

与此同时，这场危机也凸显出全球经济的高度相互依存。美国东西方研究中心资深研究员查尔斯·莫里森博士（Charles E. Morrison）对《世界大解说》指出，在冲突初期一周内，几乎所有国家都迅速受到影响。而一旦冲突延宕，对全球经济的冲击将从能源扩散至需要石油的化肥，随之引发粮食危机，形成更广泛的连锁反应。

在大国博弈层面，美国在军事介入与国内政治之间权衡成本，而中国则更强调能源通道安全与通航稳定。美国“德国马歇尔基金会”亚洲项目执行主任葛来仪（Bonnie Glaser）分析说，北京最关心的是避免能源供应中断以及不被卷入直接军事冲突。因此尽管不直接谴责伊朗，却明确表示希望维持航道的正常运行秩序。“北京不希望看到这种收费制度实施，这会为伊朗带来大量收入，而包括中国在内的所有使用海峡的国家承担代价。”

随着停火与谈判机制启动，短期风险有所缓解，市场情绪逐步回稳。但围绕通行规则、区域安全以及长期机制的分歧仍然存在。霍尔木兹海峡的未来，仍将在多方博弈中继续演变。

在地缘政治与全球经济深度交织的时代，这条狭窄水道不仅是能源运输的命脉，也成为观察国际秩序变化的重要窗口。危机虽暂时降温，但更深层的结构性角力，或许才刚刚开始。

霍尔木兹危机：能源武器化与美中博弈 | 世界大解说

2026年4月9日 17:00 / 联合早报 李佳佳

过去一个多月，位于中东波斯湾的霍尔木兹海峡局势持续紧张。2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动“史诗狂怒”军事打击之后，伊朗史无前例地封锁了这条“世界油阀”。

随着冲突升级，过往船只通行受阻，全球能源运输一度面临中断风险。油轮滞留观望，部分被迫绕行，保险成本快速上升，市场对供应安全的担忧持续发酵。

就在局势最为紧绷之际，转折出现。在巴基斯坦斡旋下，美国总统特朗普同意在4月7日最后期限前暂停对伊朗的军事行动两周。伊朗随后有条件接受停火安排并同意开放霍尔木兹海峡两周，各方计划于4月10日在伊斯兰堡展开谈判。

本期《世界大解说》，带你看懂霍尔木兹海峡危机如何牵动全球，以及这场风暴背后，更深层的战略较量与未来走向。

• 00:00 霍尔木兹危机：能源武器化与美中博弈

• 01:16 世界油阀：被掐住的全球能源命脉

• 05:30 美国困局：从速战速决到进退两难

• 09:53 中国抉择：能源安全与战略克制之间

• 12:44 秩序重塑：能源武器化与大国新博弈

• 15:26 短暂停火：风暴暂停，还是更大变局的开始？

https://fastly-signed-ap-southeast-1-prod.brightcovecdn.com/image/v1/static/4802324430001/b444de38-57a4-494d-9673-9c506d807da2/b787275c-bb19-4ded-b24d-73e185af6a11/1280×720/match/image.jpg?fastly_token=NjlmZjFjZDZfMTJiZjdjOTA4YzNiMjQ2YTdiMmM5NWI4NWU3ODJhZWM0OGMyMDg0NGYyNWU0ZGIzNzc3OGRhZjA4NjQ2NTQ1ZV9odHRwczovL2Zhc3RseS1zaWduZWQtYXAtc291dGhlYXN0LTEtcHJvZC5icmlnaHRjb3ZlY2RuLmNvbS9pbWFnZS92MS9zdGF0aWMvNDgwMjMyNDQzMDAwMS9iNDQ0ZGUzOC01N2E0LTQ5NGQtOTY3My05YzUwNmQ4MDdkYTIvYjc4NzI3NWMtYmIxOS00ZGVkLWIyNGQtNzNlMTg1YWY2YTExLzEyODB4NzIwL21hdGNoL2ltYWdlLmpwZw%3D%3D

作为全球最重要的能源通道之一，霍尔木兹海峡连接波斯湾与外海，承担着全球近四分之一的原油运输。一旦受阻，影响将迅速传导至能源价格与全球供应链。冲突期间，市场情绪紧绷，油价剧烈波动，通胀压力随之外溢至全球多个经济体。

其他替代绕行管道的运力都无法企及霍尔木兹海峡，且依然危险重重。（制图／何健伟）

首当其冲的是高度依赖进口能源的亚洲。日本、韩国与印度等国一度面临能源供应不确定性，企业生产与用电安排受到冲击。

新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院副教授顾清扬接受《世界大解说》采访时表示，全球制造业与工业化高度依赖能源。当前局势会成为世界经济的一道分水岭，“过去，经济运行主要是依靠供给跟需求这样的市场的力量；未来，国际地缘政治可能会成为主导世界产业链 、供应链、安全性的至关重要的因素”。

霍尔木兹海峡能源运输量的八成前往亚洲。（制图／何健伟）

与此同时，这场危机也凸显出全球经济的高度相互依存。美国东西方研究中心资深研究员查尔斯·莫里森博士（Charles E. Morrison）对《世界大解说》指出，在冲突初期一周内，几乎所有国家都迅速受到影响。而一旦冲突延宕，对全球经济的冲击将从能源扩散至需要石油的化肥，随之引发粮食危机，形成更广泛的连锁反应。

在大国博弈层面，美国在军事介入与国内政治之间权衡成本，而中国则更强调能源通道安全与通航稳定。美国“德国马歇尔基金会”亚洲项目执行主任葛来仪（Bonnie Glaser）分析说，北京最关心的是避免能源供应中断以及不被卷入直接军事冲突。因此尽管不直接谴责伊朗，却明确表示希望维持航道的正常运行秩序。“北京不希望看到这种收费制度实施，这会为伊朗带来大量收入，而包括中国在内的所有使用海峡的国家承担代价。”

随着停火与谈判机制启动，短期风险有所缓解，市场情绪逐步回稳。但围绕通行规则、区域安全以及长期机制的分歧仍然存在。霍尔木兹海峡的未来，仍将在多方博弈中继续演变。

在地缘政治与全球经济深度交织的时代，这条狭窄水道不仅是能源运输的命脉，也成为观察国际秩序变化的重要窗口。危机虽暂时降温，但更深层的结构性角力，或许才刚刚开始。