2026-09-17T10:03:09.683Z / reuters.com
内容摘要
- 民调显示：美国人指责华盛顿应为贸易争端负责的概率是指责渥太华的四倍
- 缅因州和密歇根州的共和党候选人采取了截然不同的竞选策略
- 分析人士称，关税可能加剧公众对经济的不满情绪
纽约9月17日路透电 —— 高油价和生活成本上涨早已让民生 affordability 成为今年中期选举的核心议题。随后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普升级了与加拿大的贸易战。
如今，受关税影响最严重的北部边境州的共和党候选人，正试图在讨好特朗普的忠实支持者与争取独立选民之间找到平衡。民调显示，独立选民已对特朗普处理经济问题及其与加拿大的争端感到不满。
密歇根州和缅因州的经济长期以来与加拿大紧密绑定，贸易往来覆盖汽车零部件、木材、水果采摘设备等诸多领域。如果共和党想要保住美国参议院席位，这两个州将是他们在11月3日选举中必须拿下的关键战场。而两州的共和党候选人采取了截然不同的选民沟通策略，各自都面临着不同的政治风险。
库克政治报告将密歇根州和缅因州的参议院席位竞选均列为势均力敌的“摇摆选区”。
缅因州联邦参议员苏珊·柯琳丝与特朗普立场决裂，批评双方针锋相对的关税互征，并为受影响行业争取豁免。相比之下，密歇根州参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯则批评加拿大，并宣称他与总统的密切关系将有助于缓解贸易战的影响。
波士顿学院政治学家大卫·霍普金斯表示，由于加拿大关税出台时间过晚，候选人大多只能在竞选过程中自行制定应对方案。
他还表示，两位候选人都“需要跳出共和党基本盘的局限”才能赢得选举。“当一项不受欢迎的政策是由本党领导人推动时，候选人会陷入非常尴尬的境地。”
支持参议院共和党候选人的全国共和党参议员委员会未就加拿大关税问题公开表态，也未回应路透社的置评请求。
“政治施压”
美国上月对价值约200亿美元的加拿大商品加征50%关税，指责其北部邻国存在不公平贸易行为。加拿大的报复性关税——对价值200亿美元的美国商品征收15%至50%的关税——已于9月8日生效。
加拿大官员毫不掩饰其征收关税的政治考量。
“我们的做法明智且具有策略性，旨在施加政治压力，”加拿大工业部长梅兰妮·若利8月时表示。
路透社/益普索上月末开展的一项民调显示，美国人指责当前贸易争端应由华盛顿负责的概率约为指责渥太华的四倍。仅有20%的受访者支持对加拿大商品加征关税。
这样的民调结果为柯琳丝宣称特朗普与加拿大的贸易战是“错误”提供了空间。作为一名以政治独立著称的温和派共和党人，柯琳丝此前曾在医疗、堕胎和枪支管控等议题上挑战党内正统立场。
如今她正与民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊展开激烈角逐，试图再次与支持率跌至历史低点的特朗普保持距离。
根据美国人口普查局数据，加拿大是缅因州最大的贸易伙伴，2025年该州69%的进口商品和41%的出口商品都与加拿大有关。缅因州80%以上的取暖油和汽油都从加拿大进口，而该州三大标志性产品——野生蓝莓、龙虾和木材——都高度依赖跨境贸易。
柯琳丝已四次投票反对特朗普的关税政策，并于8月28日致函美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔，阐述关税对该州造成的经济影响。
她在信中重点提及了道路用盐和水泥——随后美国政府已将这两类商品从关税豁免名单中移除。
杰克逊对此予以嘲讽。“我是说，是啊，谢谢你为道路用盐发声，”他在最近的一场竞选活动中对记者表示，“但她究竟做了什么，能让特朗普取消对加拿大进口零部件和农民所需加拿大化肥的关税？”
关税造成的损害
密歇根州对加拿大的出口额几乎位居全美各州之首。分析人士称，关税对当地 struggling 木材产品行业的打击可能尤为严重，尤其是厨房橱柜制造商。
共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯表示，特朗普“坚持美国优先的立场是正确的——关税有必要，但绝非一刀切的解决方案”。
他还将自己与总统的密切关系作为竞选优势而非劣势。
“你可以选择送一个每天都想着如何攻击总统的人回华盛顿，也可以选一个能走进白宫说‘嘿，我们能不能在贸易协议的这部分好好谈谈’的人，”他说道。
罗杰斯的民主党对手阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德则试图调侃他的政治困境。
“他心里清楚这些关税对密歇根州民众不利，但每次开口都不得不讨好特朗普老爹，”埃尔赛义德告诉美国有线电视新闻网。
柯琳丝和罗杰斯的发言人拒绝就此次报道置评。
白宫发言人库什·德赛在一份声明中表示：“特朗普总统永远不会动摇将美国和美国人放在首位的立场，无论是在贸易谈判中，还是通过减税和放松管制的经济议程。”
尽管总统对经济增长的管控权有限，霍普金斯表示，关税会让那些对自身财务状况不满的民众有更多理由指责特朗普及其所在的共和党。
“人们很容易将生活成本上升归咎于特朗普的所作所为，”他说。
海伦·科斯特在纽约报道。安迪·沙利文在华盛顿补充报道；杰西·梅斯纳-哈奇与迪帕·巴宾顿编辑
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW267014092026RP1/
As Canadian tariffs bite, Republicans search for a winning message
2026-09-17T10:03:09.683Z / reuters.com
Summary
- Americans are four times likelier to blame Washington than Ottawa for trade dispute, poll shows
- Republican candidates in Maine and Michigan have taken different tactical approaches
- Analysts say tariffs are likely to deepen public frustrations over the economy
NEW YORK, Sept 17 (Reuters) – High gas prices and the rising cost of living had already made affordability a defining issue in this year’s midterm elections. Then President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with Canada.
Now, Republican candidates in northern border states most affected by the tariffs are trying to strike a balance between appealing to Trump’s loyal base and reaching independent voters that polls show have soured on his handling of the economy and his fight with Canada.
The economies of Michigan and Maine have long been intertwined with Canada’s, covering everything from auto parts to lumber to fruit-picking equipment. That has raised the stakes in two states that Republicans will likely need to win in the November 3 elections if they are to hold the US Senate – and their respective candidates have taken notably different approaches with voters, each with its own political risks.
The Senate races in both Michigan and Maine are considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.
U.S. Senator Susan Collins of Maine is breaking with Trump, criticizing the tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs and seeking carveouts for affected industries. Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers, by contrast, has criticized Canada and made the case that his close relationship with the president will help blunt the impact of the trade war.
Because the Canadian tariffs emerged so recently, candidates have largely been left to devise their own responses mid-campaign, said David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College.
And both will “need to move beyond the Republican coalition” to win their races, he said. “When something unpopular happens at the behest of your own party leader, it puts you in that very awkward place.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Senate candidates, has not taken a public stance on the Canadian tariffs and did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
‘POLITICAL PRESSURE’
The United States imposed 50% tariffs on some $20 billion of Canadian goods last month, accusing its northern neighbor of unfair trade practices. Canada’s own retaliatory tariffs – ranging from 15% to 50% on $20 billion of U.S. goods – took effect on September 8.
Canadian officials have made no secret of the fact that their levies were designed with politics in mind.
“We’re being wise and strategic to put political pressure,” Canada’s Minister of Industry Melanie Joly said in August.
Americans are about four times as likely to blame the current trade dispute on Washington rather than Ottawa, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll conducted late last month. Only 20% of respondents supported higher tariffs on Canadian goods.
Such figures have cleared the way for Collins to declare Trump’s trade war with Canada a “mistake.” A moderate Republican representing a state that prides itself on political independence, Collins has a history of challenging party orthodoxy on issues including healthcare, abortion and gun control.
Now locked in a close race against Democrat Troy Jackson, she is again trying to distance herself from a president whose popularity has sunk to record lows.
Canada is Maine’s biggest trading partner, accounting for 69% of imports and 41% of exports in 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More than 80% of the state’s heating oil and gasoline is imported from Canada, and its three most iconic products – wild blueberries, lobsters and lumber – all depend heavily on cross-border trade.
Collins has voted four times to oppose Trump’s tariffs, and on August 28 wrote to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer outlining the economic impact on her state.
In her letter, she focused on road salt and cement – products that the administration subsequently exempted from the tariffs.
Jackson responded with sarcasm. “I mean, yeah, thank you for the road salt,” he told reporters at a recent campaign event. “What has she done to stand up, to get Trump to back off of parts coming in from Canada, fertilizer coming in from Canada for farmers?”
TARIFF DAMAGE
In Michigan, which exports more than almost any other state to Canada, analysts say the tariffs could be especially damaging to the struggling wood products sector, particularly kitchen cabinet makers.
Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has said Trump “is right to put America First – and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution.”
He has also presented his closeness with the president as a strength rather than a liability.
“You can send somebody back [to Washington] who gets up every day and tries to gouge the president’s eyes out or you can send somebody back who’s going to walk in and say, ‘Hey, can we work on this part of the trade deal,’” he said.
Rogers’ Democratic rival, Abdul El-Sayed, has tried to make light of his political predicament.
“He’s caught between knowing full well that these tariffs are bad for Michiganders and having to appeal to Daddy Trump every single time he opens his mouth,” El-Sayed told CNN.
Spokespeople for Collins and Rogers declined to comment for this story.
In a statement, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said “President Trump will never waver from putting Americans and America First, whether in trade negotiations or through an economic agenda of tax cuts and deregulation.”
Even though presidents have limited control over economic growth, Hopkins said, tariffs give people who are dissatisfied with their financial situation another reason to blame Trump and his fellow Republicans.
“It’s sort of easy to tell a story of what it is that Trump has done to make things less affordable,” he said.
Reporting by Helen Coster in New York. additional reporting by Andy Sullivan in Washington; Editing by Jesse Mesner-Hage and Deepa Babington
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW267014092026RP1/