共和党在移民事务上的领先优势几乎荡然无存
2026年9月17日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：维多利亚·巴拉拉 福克斯新闻
汤姆·霍曼详解聚焦庇护城市的移民战略
边境事务专员汤姆·霍曼就一名萨尔瓦多移民被控在纽约市船只相撞事故中杀害两人一事发表回应，并讨论了本届政府的边境执法战略。
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一项最新福克斯新闻民调显示，53%的登记选民认为特朗普政府的移民执法力度过大，这一观点自2025年6月以来一直保持稳定。
其余选民则在“执法力度不足”和“执法力度恰到好处”之间平分（各占23%）。
民调结果存在明显党派分歧：87%的民主党人和60%的独立选民认为执法力度过大，而大多数共和党人则在“力度不足”（40%）和“力度恰到好处”（43%）之间存在分歧。
在认为执法力度过大的选民中，对于原因存在分歧：45%的人认为政府使用了过多武力，另有49%的人认为执法对象有误。
福克斯新闻民调：受生活成本挤压、心怀不满的选民转向民主党
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民主党选民认为执法对象有误（差距7个百分点），而独立选民则认为是因为使用了过多武力（差距2个百分点）。共和党人中认为执法力度过大的比例不足，无法得出有意义的结论。
因此，特朗普总统在移民事务上的支持率为43%，较去年夏天的峰值48%有所下降。
在今年夏天之前的四年里，选民一直认为共和党在移民事务上比民主党做得更好。这一优势几乎消失殆尽，如今两党在该问题上支持率不相上下（民主党48% vs 共和党49%）。民主党在移民问题上具备竞争力，原因在于独立选民以6个百分点的优势支持民主党，另有15%的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人更倾向于民主党。
福克斯新闻民调：够了！选民拒绝数据中心
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“自拜登政府时期以来，移民问题一直被等同于边境安全，”协助开展本次民调的共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，“但如今选民将移民政策与移民海关执法局的镇压行动挂钩，许多人认为这些行动过于激进。”
尽管仅有不到十分之一（8%）的选民将移民列为优先议题，但它仍是美国面临的最重要议题之一，仅次于生活成本（34%）和整体经济形势（14%）。
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还有一件事……
近三分之二的选民（63%）同意“在美国出生的非法移民子女应自动获得公民身份”。尽管整体支持率较此前67%至69%的峰值有所回落，但仍远高于2006年45%的低点。
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同样，该结果也存在党派分歧：约九成民主党人和六成独立选民支持出生权公民身份，而六成共和党人对此表示反对。
在西班牙裔选民中，三分之二的人不认可特朗普的整体执政表现以及他在移民事务上的处理方式。他们在移民问题上对民主党的信任度比共和党高出19个百分点，而60%的人认为移民执法力度过大。
四分之三的西班牙裔选民认为，非法移民父母在美国境内生下的孩子应自动获得公民身份。
本次民调于2026年9月11日至14日进行，由灯塔研究公司（民主党）和肖&公司研究公司（共和党）主导，共采访了1211名从全国选民档案中随机抽取的登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（96人）、手机（821人）完成采访，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（294人）。
完整样本的抽样误差幅度为±3个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也可能影响调查结果。通常会针对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保人口统计数据符合登记选民群体的代表性。加权目标的制定参考了最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。
Fox News Poll: Majority says immigration enforcement has crossed the line
The Republicans’ lead on handling immigration nearly evaporates
September 17, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
By Victoria Balara, Fox News
Tom Homan explains immigration strategy focusing on sanctuary cities
Border czar Tom Homan reacts to the arrest of a Salvadoran migrant accused of killing two people in an NYC boat crash and discusses the administration’s border enforcement strategy.
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A 53% majority of registered voters say the Trump administration’s enforcement of immigration laws has gone too far, according to new Fox News polling, a view that has stayed consistent since June 2025.
The remaining voters are split between enforcement not going far enough and enforcement that’s just about right (23% each).
The results skew along party lines: 87% of Democrats and 60% of independents say enforcement has gone too far, while most Republicans split between not far enough (40%) and about right (43%).
Among those saying enforcement has gone too far, voters are divided on the reason: 45% point to the government using too much force, while 49% say the wrong people are being targeted.
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS
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Democrats say the government is targeting the wrong people (by 7 points) while independents say it’s because of using too much force (by 2 points). There are not enough Republicans saying the enforcement has gone too far to draw meaningful conclusions.
Consequently, President Trump’s approval rating on immigration sits at 43%, down from a high of 48% last summer.
For the past four years, until this summer, voters consistently said the Republicans would do a better job handling immigration than the Democrats. That advantage has all but disappeared, as voters are split between the parties (48% D vs. 49% R). The Democrats are competitive on immigration due to independents backing them over the GOP by 6 points and 15% of non-MAGA Republicans preferring the Democrats.
FOX NEWS POLL: COOL YOUR SERVERS! VOTERS REJECT DATA CENTERS
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“The immigration issue has been defined in terms of border security since the Biden years,” says Daron Shaw, the GOP pollster who helps conduct the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But voters now think of immigration policy as ICE crackdowns, and many say these have been too aggressive.”
Despite fewer than 1 in 10 (8%) voters identifying immigration as their priority, it only trails the cost of living (34%) and the broader economy (14%) as the most important issue facing the country.
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One more thing…
Nearly two-thirds of voters (63%) agree that a child born to an illegal immigrant in the United States should automatically become a citizen. While overall support has softened from previous highs around 67-69%, it’s still far above its low of 45% in 2006.
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Again, results are defined by partisanship: roughly 9 in 10 Democrats and 6 in 10 independents support birthright citizenship, while 6 in 10 Republicans oppose it.
Among Hispanic voters, two-thirds disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance and his handling of immigration. They trust the Democrats over the Republicans on the issue by 19 points, while 60% say immigration enforcement has gone too far.
Three-quarters of Hispanic voters think citizenship should be guaranteed for those born in the U.S. to illegal immigrant parents.
Conducted September 11-14, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,211 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (96) and cellphones (821) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (294).
Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.