从北卡罗来纳州到得克萨斯州，共和党主导重划的国会选区地图未能带来预期的席位增长，民主党保住了关键席位
作者：查尔斯·克里茨 福克斯新闻
发布时间：2026年11月9日 美国东部时间下午4点22分
重划后的国会选区将在即将到来的中期选举中接受关键考验，而众议院控制权的争夺也日趋激烈。比尔·亨默解读权力平衡，重点分析加利福尼亚州、佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州的重大变动。他还分析了2026年10月的民调数据，显示西班牙裔选民的支持率出现了12个百分点的变动。
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在白宫和保守派活动人士的巨大压力下，印第安纳州共和党人阻止了为利于共和党而重划国会选区地图的计划，以备战中期选举。如今，共和党因重大选举失利而焦头烂额，一位帮助阻止该计划的州议员认为，这场反对派抗争或许让印第安纳州的共和党国会代表团队免于政治溃败。
唐纳德·特朗普总统和JD·万斯副总统曾推动由共和党主导的各州在本十年中期重划国会选区地图，但该策略未能带来几波预期的席位斩获，民主党拿下了此前被认为安全的共和党席位。
印第安纳州参议院临时议长、来自马丁斯维尔的共和党人罗德·布雷，是领导反对拟议重划计划的核心人物，他告诉福克斯新闻数字版，该计划可能会重创该州的共和党国会代表团队。
“如果我们真的重划了选区，最终的结果很可能是民主党以8比1或7比2的优势占据多数——我深信这一点，”布雷说道。
共和党在众议院历史性失利之际重划选区行动宣告失败
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前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·惠特利（左）与来自北卡罗来纳州的众议员蒂姆·穆尔在北卡罗来纳州加斯托尼亚会面。（康奈尔·沃森/盖蒂图片社）
万斯曾亲自敦促印第安纳州共和党人重划国会选区，两次访问印第安纳波利斯，并与包括布雷在内的议员私下会面。特朗普也支持重划计划，还点名批评布雷，并警告共和党反对派，他们可能面临支持“美国优先”运动的初选挑战者。福克斯新闻数字版联系了白宫和副总统办公室寻求置评，但在发稿前未收到回应。
北卡罗来纳州是一个突出案例，显示共和党选区策划者面临的风险——民主党拿下了原本预计共和党能保住的席位。
前北卡罗来纳州众议院议长、来自金斯山的共和党人蒂姆·穆尔，曾帮助设计该州有利于共和党的重划选区策略，最终却在国会席位竞选中输给了民主党新人莱克莎·沃马克。穆尔未回应置评请求。
领导众议院共和党竞选团队的全国共和党国会委员会主席、来自北卡罗来纳州的理查德·哈德森，也在布拉格堡选区输给了前西弗吉尼亚州参议员理查德·奥杰达。与此同时，民主党众议员唐·戴维斯尽管选区纳入了翡翠岛和东海沿岸等倾向共和党的地区，仍成功连任。
西卡罗来纳大学政治学家克里斯·库珀在选举前警告称，北卡罗来纳州共和党人存在选民过度分散的风险。
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2025年8月20日，在奥斯汀国会大厦众议院会议厅讨论国会重划选区法案期间，一名代表查看国会重划选区地图。（杰·詹纳/《奥斯汀美国政治家报》 via 盖蒂图片社）
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“他们不能再过度分散选民，否则就会面临所谓的‘Dummynder’（恶意稀释选区）的风险，最终反而会自食其果，”库珀今年4月告诉axios新闻网。
在佛罗里达州，民主党众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨和洛伊丝·弗兰克尔的选区（包含特朗普的海湖庄园），尽管有旨在提升共和党胜算的重划选区行动，仍成功连任。民主党人皮娅·丹丹亚也拿下了奥基乔比湖附近一个被视为“特朗普支持率+10%”的重划选区。
在得克萨斯州，民主党众议员亨利·奎利亚尔和维森特·冈萨雷斯在美墨边境沿线的选区成功连任，而共和党曾试图让这些选区更有利于本党候选人。
这些结果表明，共和党重划选区计划未能斩获几波预期席位。不过，该策略是否导致共和党丢失席位，与更广泛的民主党浪潮是否淹没了在纸面倾向共和党的选区，仍是两个不同的问题。
“鉴于新提议的地图会在看似安全的共和党选区增加更多民主党选民，如果重划计划得以推进，很可能会适得其反，反而让民主党获得更多席位，”印第安纳大学政治学家劳拉·梅里菲尔德·威尔逊告诉福克斯新闻数字版。
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选民压倒性支持国会选区边界应由无党派委员会划定。（福克斯新闻）
威尔逊指出，民主党仅拿下了印第安纳州9个国会选区中的1个。
“事实上，他们确实拿下了第9选区（众议员维多利亚·斯帕茨的席位），从红色转为蓝色，而该选区在本选举周期之初被视为‘稳固共和党席位’，”威尔逊说道。
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“在那些共和党选区增加更多民主党选民，可能会改变天平倾向民主党候选人。”
布雷解释了为何他认为被否决的地图会让更多共和党席位面临风险。
“如果你把印第安纳州的民主党据点——马里恩县和印第安纳州西北部——分散到全州所有国会选区，必然会削弱其他国会选区的实力，”布雷说道。
他补充道，重划选区边界还会迫使共和党现任议员在陌生选区竞选，可能削弱他们现有的筹款和选民服务网络。
对抗白宫也给印第安纳州共和党人带来了政治后果。威尔逊指出，多数反对重划计划并随后面临初选挑战的共和党州参议员都落选了，特雷霍特的共和党人格雷格·古德和西拉斐特的共和党人斯宾塞·迪尔等是例外。
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“重划选区闹剧证明这是时间、精力和金钱的浪费，”她告诉福克斯新闻数字版。
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布雷表示，他认为抵制重划计划是值得的。
“双方在这件事上都投入了巨大的政治资本，”布雷说道。“至少在我看来，这个计划从一开始就是个坏主意。”
“印第安纳州并不需要它，”他补充道。“我认为如果我们真这么做了，结果会更糟。所以是值得的。没错。”
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这次选举让共和党人面临两种可能的解释：要么是激进的重划选区计划导致共和党选民过度分散，暴露了此前的安全席位；要么是民主党浪潮太过强大，即使是倾向共和党的地图也难以抵挡。对于抵制特朗普要求的印第安纳州共和党人来说，选举结果为他们提供了一定程度的证明，不过采用被否决的地图会带来怎样的后果仍不确定。
“如果想要玩花招，重划选区可以做得非常巧妙，有些人认为他们有能力或科学手段绘制出能保证结果的地图，”布雷说道。“事实并非如此。”
“我们举行选举自有其原因，因为有时结果并不完全符合预期。”
作者在宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦长大，2013年起在福克斯新闻纽约和华盛顿分部工作。
Trump’s redistricting gamble faces reckoning as GOP holdouts claim vindication
From North Carolina to Texas, GOP-redrawn congressional maps failed to deliver expected gains as Democrats held key seats
By Charles CreitzFox News
Published November 9, 2026 4:22pm EST
Redrawn congressional districts face a critical test in the upcoming midterm elections as the battle for control of the House heats up. Bill Hemmer breaks down the balance of power, focusing on critical changes in California, Florida and Texas. He analyzes October 2026 polling data showing a 12-point shift among Hispanic voters.
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Under intense pressure from the White House and conservative activists, Indiana Republicans resisted an effort to redraw the state’s congressional map to favor the GOP ahead of the midterms. Now, with Republicans reeling from major election losses, a state lawmaker who helped block the plan believes the opposition may have spared Indiana’s GOP delegation a political wipeout.
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance pushed Republican-led states to redraw congressional maps mid-decade, but the strategy failed to deliver several anticipated pickups as Democrats flipped seats previously considered safely Republican.
Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rod Bray, R-Martinsville, who helped lead opposition to the proposed redraw, told Fox News Digital that the plan could have devastated the state’s Republican congressional delegation.
“[H]ad we made a change to redistricting, we’d’ve ended up with something like 8-1 or 7-2 [favoring Democrats] — I really do believe that,” Bray said.
REDISTRICTING EFFORTS BLOW UP IN REPUBLICANS’ FACES AMID HISTORIC HOUSE LOSSES
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Former RNC chair Michael Whatley, left, meets with Rep. Tim Moore, R-N.C., in Gastonia, N.C.(Cornell Watson/Getty Images)
Vance personally pressed Indiana Republicans to redraw their congressional districts, visiting Indianapolis twice and meeting privately with lawmakers, including Bray. Trump also advocated for a redraw and singled out Bray while warning Republican holdouts that they could face MAGA-backed primary challengers. Fox News Digital contacted the White House and the vice president’s office for comment but did not receive a response before publication.
North Carolina offered a prominent example of the risks Republican mapmakers faced as Democrats won districts the GOP had expected to hold.
Former North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore, R-Kings Mountain, helped engineer the state’s Republican-friendly redistricting strategy, only to lose his own congressional seat to Democratic political newcomer LaKesha Womack. Moore did not respond to a request for comment.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson, R-N.C., who led House Republicans’ campaign arm, also lost his Fort Bragg-area seat to former West Virginia state Sen. Richard Ojeda. Democratic Rep. Don Davis, meanwhile, survived despite the addition of Republican-leaning areas such as Emerald Isle and Down East to his district.
Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper warned before the election that North Carolina Republicans risked spreading their voters too thin.
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A representative looks at a congressional redistricting map during debate of a congressional redistricting plan in the House Chamber at the Capitol in Austin on Aug. 20, 2025.(Jay Janner/The Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images)
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“They can’t spread too much thinner, or else they’ll be at risk of what folks call a dummymander, where you end up hurting yourself,” Cooper told Axios in April.
In Florida, Democratic Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Lois Frankel, whose district includes Mar-a-Lago, survived despite redistricting efforts intended to improve Republican prospects. Democrat Pia Dandiya also won a redrawn district near Lake Okeechobee considered a “Trump +10” seat.
In Texas, Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez also survived in districts along the U.S.-Mexico border that Republicans had sought to make more favorable to their candidates.
Those results suggest that Republican redistricting failed to produce several anticipated pickups. Whether the strategy actually cost the party seats, however, remains a separate question from whether a broader Democratic wave overwhelmed districts that had become more Republican on paper.
“Given how the newly proposed maps would have added even more Democratic voters in seemingly safe Republican districts, it is possible the redistricting, had it gone through, would backfire and actually would have given Democrats more seats,” University of Indianapolis political scientist Laura Merrifield Wilson told Fox News Digital.
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Voters overwhelmingly agreed that congressional district lines should be drawn by a nonpartisan commission(Fox News)
Wilson noted that Democrats flipped only one of Indiana’s nine congressional districts.
“As it was, they did flip (Rep. Victoria Spartz’) IN-5 from red to blue and that was a district that was considered ‘solid Republican’ at the beginning of this election cycle,” Wilson said.
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“Adding more Democratic voters to those Republican districts could have actually tipped the scales in favor of the Democratic candidates.”
Bray explained why he believed the rejected map would have put more Republican seats at risk.
“If you take the Democrat strongholds in the state of Indiana that are Marion County and obviously Northwest Indiana, and then you spread those out amongst all the congressional districts among the state, by definition you’re going to weaken these other congressional districts,” Bray said.
He added that redrawing district boundaries would also force Republican incumbents to campaign in unfamiliar territory, potentially weakening their existing fundraising and constituent networks.
Resisting the White House came with political consequences for Indiana Republicans. Wilson noted that most Republican state senators who opposed the redraw and subsequently faced primary challenges lost their races, with Sens. Greg Goode, R-Terre Haute, and Spencer Deery, R-West Lafayette, among the exceptions.
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“The redistricting debacle proved to be a waste of time, energy, and money,” she told Fox News Digital.
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Bray said he believed resisting the redraw was worthwhile.
“There was an immense amount of political capital spent on both sides of this darn thing,” Bray said. “It was not a good idea to start, at least from my perspective.”
“Indiana didn’t want it,” he added. “I think the results would have been far worse had we done it. So it was worthwhile. Yes.”
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The election leaves Republicans confronting two possible explanations: Their aggressive redistricting may have spread GOP voters too thin, exposing previously safe seats, or the Democratic wave may simply have been too powerful for even Republican-friendly maps to withstand. For Indiana Republicans who resisted Trump’s demands, the results offer a measure of vindication, though the consequences of adopting the rejected map remain uncertain.
“You can get far too cute with redistricting if you want to, and some folks think that they have the means or the science to just draw maps and come up with a result that they can guarantee,” Bray said. “That is not the case.”
“We continue to hold elections for a reason. Because sometimes the results are not exactly what we expect.”
Born and raised in Allentown, Pennsylvania, worked in both the New York and Washington bureaus for Fox News since 2013.
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