共和党籍州长格雷格·阿博特多年来将得克萨斯州置于移民辩论的中心,发起了一系列以州为主导的强硬措施,遏制边境跨境行为,并通过将数千名移民巴士运送至全国的蓝领城市,与民主党人形成对立。
但民主党人格娜·希诺霍萨当选州长彻底扭转了这种局面,得克萨斯州作为唐纳德·特朗普政府移民机器忠实伙伴的时期很可能已经结束。据多位现任及前国土安全部官员、民主党议员和移民权益倡导者透露,未来的政策走向将是对民主党治理该州能力的考验——而得克萨斯州正是撰写共和党边境安全策略的样板州。
“这是一个根本性的转变,”在拜登政府时期担任美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)幕僚长的杰森·豪泽表示,“这将指导我们在全国范围内的边境安全工作。州长在此拥有全新的局面,可以真正引领方向。”
民主党人已掌控了得克萨斯州的多数核心权力机构——州长 mansion、总检察署以及州议会众议院,这引发了一个远超奥斯汀(得州首府)范围的问题:全国范围内覆盖最广泛的州联邦移民合作关系将留存多少?
希诺霍萨曾批评阿博特的“孤星行动”边境计划耗资巨大,但尚未明确将做出哪些改变,而她提名的候任总检察长表示,将严肃审查该州与ICE的各项协议。
不过,由共和党控制的州参议院以及要求治安官签署这些协议的法律,意味着政策转向可能面临挑战——尤其是特朗普及其新首席幕僚斯蒂芬·米勒(米勒是特朗普政府移民执法政策的设计师)极可能推动继续实施逮捕行动。
国土安全部官员在接受CNN采访时,被问及该州移民行动是否会发生变化时表示:“现在下结论为时尚早。”
但特朗普政府可能已看到了政策变动的预兆。上周五,休斯顿市长约翰·惠特迈尔签署了一项新指令,限制ICE与当地执法部门在交通拦截期间的合作;此前7月,一名ICE警员在该市 fatal shooting了墨西哥建筑工人洛伦佐·萨尔加多·阿劳霍,引发当地舆论哗然。
“我这么做是为了开启一个疗愈进程,减少社区中的恐惧与焦虑,”惠特迈尔在新闻发布会上说,“我多次强调:选举很重要。”
此次选举结果对特朗普政府是一个打击——特朗普政府曾寄希望于得克萨斯州为其移民执法方针提供指导,并设定州与地方协调的预期。特朗普曾拉拢阿博特的顾问进入政府任职,甚至采纳了州长的部分主张。
民主党及共和党策略师指出,得克萨斯州转向民主党,部分是对特朗普移民打压政策的否定。但不少支持希诺霍萨的选民有其他优先考量,例如她承诺缩减该州数据中心的建设;与此同时,CNN选民调查显示,将移民执法政策列为投票关键因素的选民中,支持阿博特的比例高出17个百分点。
希诺霍萨称阿博特的边境行动是“政治作秀”,并表示需要进行审查。即将接替共和党人肯·帕克斯顿成为州总检察长的内森·约翰逊在接受CNN采访时表示,他将严肃审查州机构通过287(g)计划与ICE建立的少数合作关系。该计划允许不同级别的合作,从行政事务到主动执法均包含在内。(得克萨斯州已有数百家地方机构单独签署了相关协议。)
“如果我继续保留这项协议,那一定是因为ICE向我开放了真正的合作关系,赋予我在本州范围内调查ICE执法行为的个人专属权限,”约翰逊表示。
民主党众议员维罗妮卡·埃斯科瓦尔预测,该州将采取她所谓的“符合常识”的边境安全策略。“存在一种在保障公共安全的同时,不会因治安官和 Counties 不配合特朗普政府的要求而惩罚他们的方法,”她告诉CNN,“我认为我们将采取更务实的做法。”
多位接受CNN采访的消息人士预计,得克萨斯州在移民问题上的姿态将发生改变,并缩减阿博特一些引发争议的措施,包括2021年推出的“孤星行动”——该行动是对前总统乔·拜登边境政策的挑战,当时边境跨境数量创下历史新高。
作为该行动的一部分,阿博特将移民通过巴士运送至民主党主导的城市、封锁部分边境区域阻止联邦特工进入、在里奥格兰德河设置浮标以阻止移民,并签署一项法案,赋予州执法部门拘留移民的权力等多项措施。
特朗普采纳了这些主张,最终提拔阿博特的一位高级顾问担任美国边境 Patrol 主管,并在此基础上扩展了该州的一些措施,例如在里奥格兰德河增设浮标,以及依赖该州执行移民拘留任务。
候任州长希诺霍萨批评这项耗资数十亿美元的边境安全计划是浪费资金,她在得州议会任职期间曾投票反对为该计划拨款。
这位在里奥格兰德河谷边境附近长大的候任州长,尚未明确表示该计划在她领导下未来会是什么样。
CNN已联系希诺霍萨的竞选团队寻求置评。
“孤星行动”可能的缩减引发了特朗普一些盟友的担忧。
“得州一直是在边境安全方面加大投入以及‘美国优先’大规模驱逐政策的独苗,现在得州在这些方面可能即将发生重大变化,”传统基金会边境安全高级研究员、特朗普政府前高级顾问托德·本斯曼表示。他特别担忧若再次发生边境危机,该州的支持力度可能会减弱。
“边境安全最有效的方式是多层次的,”他说。
这位国土安全部官员还指出,该部门过去在沿边境的民主党州长地区曾面临挑战,但最终在危机时刻解决了至少部分问题。加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州——均为边境州——目前也由民主党人担任州长。
当被问及周四关于希诺霍萨在得州-墨西哥边境政策可能发生的变化时,特朗普表示:“我确信新州长会希望得州边境保持安全。”
“如果他们不继续我的政策,我会继续,”他在椭圆形办公室对记者表示。
该州的移民权益倡导者预计会有变化,但不一定是激进的——至少不会立即发生。
“该州的局势有种新鲜感,因为权力平衡很久没有呈现出现在即将到来的这种状态了,”大型得州移民服务与倡导组织RAICES的律师兼发言人哈维尔·O·伊达尔戈表示。
“我认为你将看到州级层面出现一个 alignment 时期,同步调整工作流程以落实那些政策,”他说。
虽然民主党在得州彻底击败了共和党长期掌权的行政部门,并掌控了州众议院,但州参议院仍由共和党控制。
分裂的议会将使州法律的任何修改变得困难重重——包括将非法越境列为州犯罪以及要求大量地方司法机构配合联邦移民部门的法律。
民主党众议员华金·卡斯特罗告诉CNN,他预计希诺霍萨将“主导该州移民执法的走向”,即使她需要州议会的合作才能修改某些法律和政策。
“明确来说,移民执法和边境安全仍会存在。但希望这将是一个新纪元,你不会进行种族 profiling,不会动用公共安全部(DPS)或得州国民警卫队包围街道或拘留中心,因为你试图通过大规模驱逐作秀,”他表示。
倡导组织FWD.us的分析显示,得州的州级和地方执法部门与联邦政府的合作比其他任何州都更为紧密。
这些数据因阿博特去年签署的一项州法律而进一步增加:该法律要求全州254个县中经营监狱的治安官以某种形式配合联邦移民部门。
大多数治安官已这么做,但一些人担忧这些协议会影响社区信任。输掉参议院选举的帕克斯顿,对一些未立即配合的县展开调查并发出需求函。
该法律要求相关协议在明年前签署。但执行任务将主要落在明年上任的民主党人身上。
候任总检察长约翰逊表示,得州治安官与联邦政府一直保持着尊重的工作关系——尤其是在边境地区,他们经常合作——而将这种关系 formalize“毫无必要,且剥夺了地方治安官的裁量权”。
“与此同时,执行该法律的责任落在总检察长身上,”他说。
约翰逊现在将自行决定是否对不遵守协议的地区采取法律行动。“如果他们无故违反法律,那么我将确保他们遵守法律,即使我本身不认同这项法律,”他说。
他表示,对于认为该法律会“损害其保障公共安全能力”的执法人员,可给予例外。
活动人士警告称,如果得州民主党未能抓住政治风向的变化,该州的发展势头以及该党更广泛的未来目标可能会丧失。得州民权项目主席、2022年州总检察长民主党提名人罗谢尔·加扎表示,选民给了该党一个机会——也是一份 mandate。
“坦白说,”她说,“如果不抓住这个机会,可能就会永远失去。”
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott placed Texas at the center of the immigration debate for years, launching aggressive state-led efforts to clamp down on border crossings and antagonizing Democrats by busing thousands of migrants to blue cities across the country.
But Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s election as governor has flipped that dynamic on its head, and Texas’ run as a loyal partner in President Donald Trump’s immigration machine is likely over. What replaces it will be a test of how Democrats govern the state that wrote the Republican playbook on border security, according to current and former Homeland Security officials, Democratic lawmakers, and immigrant advocates.
“It’s a foundational shift,” said Jason Houser, who served as chief of staff at Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the Biden administration. “It’s going to guide what we do on border security nationally. The governor has a clean slate here to really lead.”
Democrats’ sweep into most of Texas’ top levers of power — the governor’s mansion, the attorney general’s office, and the state House — now raises a question that reaches well beyond Austin: How much of the nation’s most extensive state-federal immigration partnership survives?
Hinojosa has called Abbott’s “Operation Lone Star” border operation costly, though she has yet to say what she would change, and her incoming attorney general says he will look critically at the state’s agreements with ICE.
But a Republican-held state Senate and a law requiring sheriffs to sign on to those agreements mean the pivot could prove challenging — especially with Trump and Stephen Miller, the architect of the administration’s enforcement policy and his new chief of staff, likely to push for continuing arrests.
“It’s too soon to tell,” a Homeland Security official told CNN, when asked if immigration operations are expected to change in the state.
But the administration may be getting a preview. On Friday, Houston Mayor John Whitmire signed a new directive limiting cooperation between ICE and local law enforcement during traffic stops in the city where an ICE officer’s fatal shooting of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, a Mexican construction worker, in July sparked outrage.
“I do this to begin a healing process, reduce fear and anxiety across our community,” Whitmire said during a press conference. “I’ve said many times: elections matter.”
The election results were a blow to the Trump administration, which looked to Texas early on to, in part, guide its approach to immigration enforcement and set expectations for state and local coordination. Trump plucked Abbott advisors to serve in his administration and even adopted some of the governor’s ideas.
The swing toward Democrats in Texas were in part a repudiation of Trump’s immigration crackdown, according to Democratic and Republican strategists. But many of the voters who backed Hinojosa had other priorities in mind, such as her promise to curtail data center construction in the state. Meanwhile, people who said immigration enforcement policy was crucial to their vote were +17 for Abbott, CNN’s Voter Poll showed.
Hinojosa has called Abbott’s border operation “political theatre,” and said it needs to reviewed. Nathan Johnson, who will succeed Republican Ken Paxton as the state’s attorney general, told CNN in an interview that he will look critically at the handful of partnerships state agencies have entered with ICE through the 287(g) program. The program allows for different levels of cooperation, from administrative tasks to active enforcement. (Hundreds of local agencies in Texas have separately signed onto the agreements.)
“If I were to keep that agreement, it’s going to be because ICE opens itself up to a true partnership, which gives me private individual investigative authority over actions by ICE committed in my state,” Johnson said.
Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar forecasted what she described as a “common sense” approach to border security. “There’s a way to ensure public safety without punishing sheriffs and counties for not doing the bidding of the Trump administration,” she told CNN. “I think we’re going to have a much more practical approach.”
Multiple sources who spoke with CNN expect a change in how Texas asserts itself on immigration and a pullback on some of Abbott’s controversial efforts, including Operation Lone Star, which launched in 2021 as a challenge to former President Joe Biden’s border policies amid a record number of border crossings.
As part of that operation, Abbott transported migrants on buses to Democratic-led cities, blocked a portion of the border to federal agents, set up buoys in the Rio Grande to deter migrants, and signed a bill into law that would give state law enforcement the authority to detain migrants, among other measures.
Trump embraced those ideas, eventually tapping one of Abbott’s senior advisors to serve as US Border Patrol chief and building on some of the state’s measures, such as placing additional buoys in the Rio Grande, as well as leaning on the state for immigration detention.
Hinojosa, the incoming governor, has criticized the multibillion-dollar border-security initiative as a waste of money and had voted against appropriating funds toward it during her time in the Texas legislature.
The governor-elect, who grew up near the border in the Rio Grande Valley,has not indicated what the future of the initiative would look like under her leadership.
CNN reached out to the Hinojosa campaign for comment.
The potential pullback of Operation Lone Star has rattled some of Trump’s allies.
“Texas was always the lone standout of leaning into investment in border security – and MAGA mass deportation policies. It’s a big change coming probably coming for Texas on those scores,” said Todd Bensman, a senior research fellow on border security at the Heritage Foundation and former senior advisor in the Trump administration, who expressed concerns about state support diminishing particularly in the event of another border crisis.
“Border security is best when it’s multi-layered,” he said.
The Homeland Security official also noted that the department has faced challenges with Democratic governors along the border in the past but eventually resolved at least some of those issues in moments of crisis. California, Arizona, and New Mexico — all border states — also have Democratic governors.
Trump, when asked Thursday about expected changes at the Texas-Mexico border under Hinojosa, said, “I am sure that the new governor is going to want to have security at the Texas border.”
“If they don’t continue my policy, I will,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.
Immigrant advocates in the state expect changes. But not necessarily radical ones — at least not immediately.
“There’s a sense of newness for this dynamic in this state, because it’s been quite a while since the balance of power has been the way it’s going to look,” said Javier O. Hidalgo, an attorney and spokesperson for RAICES, a large Texas-based immigration services and advocacy group.
“I think you’re going to see a period at the state level where you’ll see some kind of alignment, syncing up to figure out the workflows to get those policies in place,” he said.
While Democrats achieved a devastating rout of the state’s ruby-red executive branch and flipped the Texas House, its state Senate remains in Republican control.
The split legislature would make any changes to state law — including laws that made it a state crime to illegally cross the border and compelled many local jurisdictions to cooperate with federal immigration authorities — an uphill slog.
Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro told CNN he expects Hinojosa will have a “big hand in what immigration enforcement looks like” in the state, even if she’ll need the cooperation of the state legislature to change certain law and policies.
“To be clear, you’re still going to have immigration enforcement and border security. But hopefully, it will be a new era where you don’t engage in racial profiling, and you don’t flood the streets with DPS or detention centers with the Texas National Guard because you’re trying to make a big show of mass deportation,” he said.
State and local law enforcement cooperate more closely and extensively with the federal government in Texas than any other state, according to an analysis from advocacy groupFWD.us.
Those numbers have been boosted by a state law signed last year by Abbott, compelling sheriffs who operate jails in any of the state’s 254 counties to cooperate with federal immigration authorities in some form.
Most have done so, but some held concerns about how the agreements would affect community trust. Paxton, who lost his US Senate election, launched investigations and sent demand letters to some counties that did not immediately comply.
That law requires the agreements to be signed by next month. But enforcement will largely fall to Democrats who take office in January.
Johnson,the incoming attorney general, said there had always been a respectful working relationship between Texas sheriffs and the federal government – especially in the border area where they work together frequently – and that formalizing that relationship was “unnecessary and took discretion away from local sheriffs.”
“At the same time, enforcing that law falls upon the attorney general,” he said.
Johnson will now have discretion over whether to pursue legal action against holdouts to the agreements. “And if they’re flouting the law for no good reason, then I’ll see to it that they follow the law, even if I don’t like the law,” he said.
Exceptions could be made, he said, for law enforcement officials who believe the law is going to “compromise their ability to provide public safety.”
Activists warn that if the changes in the political tides are not seized upon by Texas Democrats, momentum in the state, and the party’s larger, future ambitions, may be lost. Rochelle Garza, the president of the Texas Civil Rights Project and the Democratic Party’s 2022 nominee for state attorney general, said voters gave the party an opportunity – but also a mandate.
“And frankly,” she said, “if it’s not seized upon, it can be lost.”
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