2026年11月2日 09:00:15.272Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
选举前夕，民主党看起来有较大机会赢得参议院多数席位，但许多处于竞争的席位都来自保守派占绝对优势的州，胜负仍可能向任何一方倾斜。
民主党拓展了今年年初几乎无人预料到的竞选版图，而且数月来全国环境似乎对该党有利。根据CNN的“民意汇总”平均数据，唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率为34%，选民对经济、伊朗战争和腐败的不满，似乎正推动全美范围内的民主党支持者积极参与选举。
因此，CNN今年第二次扩大了这份席位名单以反映这一情况。
这份名单已扩展至11个席位，新增的是南卡罗来纳州——这个保守州在近期民调中竞争力有所提升。另外两个席位是德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州，今年1月几乎没人料到这两个州会成为战场，如今它们的排名也有所上升。
民主党需要拿下4个共和党席位，同时保住所有已有的席位，才能在今年赢得参议院多数席位。
而共和党在特朗普的政治网络以及科技巨头埃隆·马斯克的支持下，正投入大量资金捍卫参议院多数席位。根据AdImpact的数据，在中期选举的最后一个月，共和党在这份名单上的11场竞选广告支出为5.6亿美元，超过民主党的5.21亿美元。若排除共和党几乎已放弃的佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州，两者的支出差距会明显更大，约为5.5亿美元对4.69亿美元。
我们对11月最可能易主席位的排名，基于CNN的相关报道，包括对参与参议院竞选的策略师的采访，以及我们对候选人筹款情况、民调和各州党派环境的分析。最终的排名并非预测哪方会赢得个别竞选，或哪个政党将掌控美国参议院，而是中期选举竞选季结束时，各场竞争所处态势的快照。
北卡罗来纳州是周二最可能易主的参议院席位，民主党看起来有望拿下该州自2008年以来的首个参议院席位。在高点大学/YouGov的最终民调中，前州长、民主党人罗伊·库珀在可能选民中领先共和党参议院提名者迈克尔·惠特利14个百分点。
没人会指望在这位特朗普曾三次获胜的州，民主党能取得这么大的胜利。但意识到这里的问题后，共和党在最后阶段撤回了部分支出。民主党在过去两周花费了1040万美元，而共和党仅花费了250万美元。
CNN的“民意汇总”平均数据显示，前参议员谢罗德·布朗以50%对45%的差距领先共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德，优势为5个百分点。
布朗在2024年寻求第四个参议院任期时失利，他早早采取行动攻击赫斯特德——后者是因副总统JD·万斯离职而获任命的。民主党在数据中心、爱泼斯坦档案和腐败问题上对赫斯特德发起猛烈抨击。他们在最后两周播放最多的广告，提醒选民赫斯特德与该州一起能源丑闻存在关联。
同一时期，共和党播放的主要广告聚焦于布朗在税收和移民问题上的立场。俄亥俄州的这场参议院竞选是本周期广告支出第二高的，根据AdImpact的数据，10月共和党在该州的广告支出约为1.41亿美元，超过民主党的1.02亿美元。
俄亥俄州在特朗普时代已右转，总统在最后一个月三次前往该州，帮助赫斯特德顺利当选。但他在竞选集会上流传最广的言论，更多的是称赞赫斯特德的身材，而非关乎选民的问题。
在最后阶段，俄亥俄州州长竞选引发了更多关注，共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米发布了一则引发争议的广告，其中出现了民主党对手艾米·阿克顿的疏远母亲。近期民调显示，阿克顿领先拉马斯瓦米，这进一步表明周二可能是民主党获胜的有利时机。
德克萨斯州已有32年未选举民主党人士担任全州职务，CNN的“民意汇总”显示，詹姆斯·塔拉西科与共和党人肯·帕克斯之间的竞争没有明确领先者。
但各种条件可能汇集在一起，使民主党将德克萨斯州变为蓝州的梦想成为现实，尽管该州的保守派地位以及共和党大规模的广告支出，可能会再次让民主党感到心碎。
CNN的“民意汇总”显示，这场竞争没有明确领先者，但过去几天发布的一对民调——包括《纽约时报》/Siena民调和另一项CNN民调——显示塔拉西科领先帕克斯，且优势超出误差范围。
SSRS上个月开展的CNN民调发现，这位民主党人受益于选民对帕克斯的极度负面印象，以及他对2024年转向特朗普的该州黑人、拉丁裔和亚裔选民的大力支持。
帕克斯在共和党参议员约翰·科恩击败后，筹款强劲，在夏季占据了德克萨斯州的广告主导地位。科恩曾警告，如果这位深陷困境的总检察长成为提名者，共和党候选人在德克萨斯州将遭遇“大屠杀”。
最终，共和党为帕克斯提供了支持，据AdImpact数据，自初选以来，共和党已投入超过2.78亿美元用于广告。马斯克——美国政治中最大的公开捐款人——单独为这场竞选提供了1.68亿美元的共和党资金，超过了其他任何竞选的捐款金额。
共和党对塔拉西科的大部分攻击都集中在文化问题上，包括批评他过去在性别和宗教问题上的言论。
根据德克萨斯州国务卿的数据，德克萨斯州的提前投票数量居所有州之首，已有770万张选票投出。提前投票数据显示，民主党占多数的县投票率很高。拉丁裔选民——今年显示出脱离特朗普倾向的一个选民群体——在提前投票中的占比高于上一次选举。
德克萨斯州共和党参议员泰德·克鲁兹对提前投票激增发出警告，他周五在播客中表示：“我们可能会输掉所有全州竞选。”
但德克萨斯州仍是美国保守主义的堡垒。2024年特朗普以两位数优势赢得该州，共和党依赖其基本盘在选举日大量投票，尽管部分人对帕克斯的候选人身份感到不安。共和党也在关注自由意志党候选人的选择可能如何影响选举日的选民决定。
4. 缅因州
在本周期开始时，缅因州被视为民主党最可能获得的席位之一。这场参议院竞选是本周期最不稳定的竞选之一，原因是格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的性骚扰指控以及他最终退出竞选。
选举前一天，CNN的“民意汇总”显示，民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊以50%对46%的差距领先共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯，优势为4个百分点。
柯林斯是唯一在2024年卡玛拉·哈里斯获胜的州参选的共和党现任议员。民调也显示，这场竞选是柯林斯的公投，她正在寻求第六个任期。SSRS开展的CNN民调发现，缅因州可能选民中约四分之三的人表示，他们的选择更多是受柯林斯而非杰克逊的驱动。
核心问题在于柯林斯能否摆脱其州内对共和党和特朗普的负面看法。这位参议员继续强调自己的独立立场，不过民主党认为她大多数时候与特朗普立场一致，包括在最后两周的主要广告中。
共和党团体在该州投放大量广告，提醒选民柯林斯为该州取得的成就。共和党在最后几周投放的主要广告对杰克逊发起政治和个人攻击，称他“是个骗子和变态”。
阿拉斯加州的排名下降两位，原因是有关两位丹·沙利文的最新发展可能成为一个变数。
长期以来，共和党一直担心11月排名选择投票中出现第二位丹·沙利文（前学校教师），但《纽约时报》的一篇报道称，民主党招募了与现任参议员丹·沙利文同名的参议院候选人，给这场竞选注入了新的不确定性。
周日发布的《纽约时报》/Siena民调显示，民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉与参议员沙利文之间没有明确领先者，差距为48%对46%，表明这场竞争可能已变得更加胶着。8月，佩尔托拉在全州初选中比现任议员沙利文领先8个百分点。
众所周知，阿拉斯加州的民调难度较大。10月前两周，佩尔托拉的筹款超过了沙利文，且在最后阶段现金储备更多。但过去两周，共和党在该州的广告支出略超过民主党。
佩尔托拉否认参与任何被指控的投票堆叠行为，尽管特朗普建议她退出竞选，且州和联邦的刑事调查正在进行中。法律专家普遍怀疑，所谓的投票堆叠行为是否构成犯罪。
由于采用排名选择投票，阿拉斯加州的计票时间可能比其他州更长，该州允许在选举日当天或之前邮戳的选票在10至15天内寄回选举办公室。在竞争激烈的情况下，阿拉斯加州的结果可能需要数周时间才能公布。
堪萨斯州的排名上升两位，因为共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔的处境不稳定，对手是民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿，汉密尔顿希望成为1994年以来首位当选美国参议院议员的堪萨斯州民主党人。
周日发布的《纽约时报》/Siena民调显示，汉密尔顿以49%对44%的优势领先马歇尔，而SSRS近期开展的CNN民调显示，这场竞争没有明确领先者。CNN的民调发现，大部分可能选民表示，他们更希望共和党控制参议院，但53%的人对马歇尔持负面看法。
包括许多农民和牧场主在内的中西部选民，正受到柴油价格高和特朗普关税政策的挤压。《纽约时报》报道称，马歇尔的数百名前患者因未支付账单被起诉，部分人甚至遭到逮捕，这已成为这场竞选的导火索。
身为卫理公会大型教堂牧师的汉密尔顿，在特朗普以16个百分点获胜的州努力组建广泛联盟。总统周日前往该州为其基本盘选民造势，共和党希望这个倾向保守的州最终会是民主党无法逾越的障碍。
但民主党在最后阶段大力推动该州进入竞争。10月，民主党团体的广告支出约为4570万美元，超过共和党的3150万美元，在进入最后几周时，汉密尔顿的现金储备为290万美元，而马歇尔仅为81万美元。
爱荷华州在共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特的席位竞争中保持排名。
CNN的“民意汇总”显示，民主党人乔希·图雷克和共和党众议员阿什利·欣森之间没有明确领先者，两人的支持率分别为46%和45%。
2024年特朗普在爱荷华州以13个百分点获胜，该州自2008年以来未选举过民主党参议员。欣森也是本周期政治能力最强的共和党人之一，尽管她与总统一同竞选，但她在伊朗战争、关税和牛肉进口问题上与总统保持距离。
但这位共和党众议员仍面临选民对柴油、化肥和这个农业依赖州其他商品价格上涨的不满。与堪萨斯州类似，民主党在10月的广告支出超过了共和党，近2000万美元。民主党在该时期的一则主要广告，将这位共和党众议员与高油价、关税和伊朗战争联系起来，而共和党则发布广告批评图雷克的移民问题。
民主党州长候选人罗布·桑德有望表现出色，最终也可能让图雷克受益。
密歇根州的排名下降两位，因为新迹象显示，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德可能比共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯更有优势——即使在最后几天，一个惊人的跨党派背书也进入了竞选。
民主党众议员海莉·史蒂文斯周日决定放弃埃尔-赛义德，转而支持罗杰斯，这对她所在的政党来说是不同寻常的举动。埃尔-赛义和史蒂文斯之间的紧张关系在激烈的初选中以及关于美国对以色列援助的分歧出现后，在竞选最后阶段公开爆发。
史蒂文斯的背书是在选举日不到48小时前作出的，凸显了埃尔-赛义德在争取初选中支持史蒂文斯的民主党联盟部分群体（尤其是黑人和犹太选民）时面临的挑战。
但这也导致州和全国的民主党人——其中一些人并不喜欢埃尔-赛义德——周日发布了支持他的强烈声明。据CNN报道，参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默非正式地在初选中支持史蒂文斯，他指责史蒂文斯“可耻的背叛”。
CNN的“民意汇总”显示，埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州以50%对45%的差距领先罗杰斯，这包括《纽约时报》/Siena民调，该民调显示埃尔-赛义德优势为11个百分点。SSRS上月开展的CNN民调显示，这位进步人士正在巩固民主党内部的支持，包括赢得95%的可能民主党选民的支持。
截至周日，这场竞选已有约150万张提前投票，接近2022年中期选举期间密歇根州总投票数的一半。
最终，这场竞选可能取决于密歇根人对高油价和特朗普与加拿大贸易战下的经济的感受。最后两周，民主党一则主要广告聚焦于医疗保健，试图将罗杰斯与制药公司推高的成本联系起来。
总统为支持罗杰斯的基本盘选民动员付出了巨大努力，罗杰斯在2024年的参议院竞选失利，尽管特朗普当时位居竞选榜首。但罗杰斯也在应对特朗普第二任期的不受欢迎。据CNN最新民调，可能选民对总统的支持率为33%。
民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯似乎比夏季时更稳固地领先于共和党前参议员约翰·苏努努。
新罕布什尔大学调查中心的民调显示，该州可能选民中，帕帕斯领先苏努努12个百分点。民调还显示，共和党州长凯利·阿约特与民主党对手辛德·沃明顿的支持率持平。
部分共和党人仍抱有希望，认为阿约特的强劲表现可能会帮助苏努努。但即使苏努努试图与总统保持距离，对特朗普的负面看法可能仍会损害他的选情。
南卡罗来纳州首次入选这份名单。
上周发布的《纽约时报》/Siena民调显示，被任命的共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆与民主党医生安妮·安德鲁斯之间的竞争势均力敌。
格雷厄姆在哥哥林赛7月意外去世后，寻求完整任期。她在竞选过程中出现了一些不稳定的时刻，特别是在辩论中被问及台湾问题时，她表示“国家安全不是我擅长的领域”。
她未能争取到共和党基本盘的关键部分。在辩论失误发生时站在台上的共和党众议员拉尔夫·诺曼，在首轮决选中以微弱差距输给格雷厄姆，他向CNN透露，他的全家都没有投票支持这位前对手，并称她不是真正的保守派。特朗普在过去一个月两次访问该州，试图动员共和党选民投票。
安德鲁斯在筹款方面大幅超过格雷厄姆。外部资金也涌入该州，双方计划在最后两周花费约1700万美元，疯狂争取选民。
该州的基本盘仍有利于格雷厄姆。2024年特朗普以18个百分点优势赢得该州。但这场竞争的胶着态势让部分共和党人在选举夜感到焦虑。
共和党在本周期开始时将佐治亚州视为主要的攻击机会，但在选举前一天，共和党赢得参议院竞选的可能性可能已不存在。
参议员乔恩·奥索夫竞选势头强劲，在整个竞选过程中都领先共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯——后者得到了特朗普在共和党初选中的背书。奥索夫的筹款和广告支出也大幅超过柯林斯。
关于奥索夫的讨论，更多不是围绕他是否会连任，而是他是否会在2028年寻求更高职位。他多次排除竞选总统的可能。
尽管预计他会在周二获胜，奥索夫的政治影响力仍将经受考验。这位佐治亚州民主党人在帮助州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博茨对抗共和党提名者里克·杰克逊的竞选中付出了巨大努力，因此我们将关注奥索夫能否在这场竞争中帮助她获胜。（博茨若当选，将有机会填补参议院空缺，这对希望奥索夫竞选总统的民主党人来说至关重要。）
在整个竞选过程中，我们关注了许多州，但它们从未真正成为战场的棋子，包括两个涉及共和党现任议员的州——内布拉斯加州和密西西比州，以及另一个涉及民主党退休议员席位的明尼苏达州。
也许有更多资金和时间的话，这些州可能会在竞争中展现出更重要的作用，但目前来看，这三个州在周二易主的可能性很低。
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/28/politics/video/georgia-senate-governor-jon-ossoff-keisha-lance-bottoms-rick-jackson-midterm-cmm-vrtc
The top 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, the day before the midterms
2026-11-02T09:00:15.272Z / CNN
On the eve of the election, Democrats appear within striking distance of winning the Senate majority, but many seats in play are in toss-up territory in deep-red states that could still break in either party’s direction.
Democrats have expanded the map in ways few predicted at the start of the year, and the national environment has seemed to favor the party for many months. President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 34%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls average, and voter frustration on the economy, the Iran war and corruption appears to be driving Democratic energy across the country.
And for the second time this year, CNN is expanding its list to reflect that.
This list has expanded to 11 seats to add South Carolina, a red state that has grown competitive in late polling. Texas and Kansas – two other seats few envisioned being on the battleground map in January – have moved up in their positions.
Democrats will need to flip four Republican-held seats while holding onto all their own to win the Senate majority this year.
And Republicans are spending heavily to defend their Senate majority, fueled by President Donald Trump’s political network as well as tech titan Elon Musk. Over the final month of the midterms, Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising in the 11 races on this list: $560 million to $521 million, according to AdImpact data. Excluding Georgia and North Carolina – where Republicans have all but waved the white flag – the gap is significantly larger, about $550 million to $469 million.
Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The final ranking is not a prediction of who will win individual races or which party will secure control of the US Senate, but they offer a snapshot of where the contests stand as the midterm campaign season ends.
North Carolina is the Senate seat most likely to flip on Tuesday, with Democrats appearing on track to win their first Senate race in the state since 2008. Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, was leading GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley by 14 points among likely voters in a final poll from High Point University/YouGov.
No one is expecting a Democratic margin of victory to be that large in a state Trump won three times. But aware of the issues here, Republicans have pulled back on spending in the final stretch. Democrats spent $10.4 million over the last two weeks compared to $2.5 million from the GOP.
The CNN Poll of Polls average shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading GOP Sen. Jon Husted by 5 points, 50% to 45%.
Brown, who lost his bid for a fourth Senate term in 2024, moved early to define Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Democrats have hit Husted hard on data centers, the Epstein files, and corruption. Their most-run ad in the final two weeks reminded voters of Husted’s connection to an energy scandal in the state.
The top Republican ad during that same period focused on Brown’s stances on taxes and immigration. Ohio’s Senate race has seen the second most spending this cycle, and Republicans outspent Democrats by about $141 million to $102 million in October, according to AdImpact data.
Ohio has trended rightward in the Trump era, and the president traveled to the state three times in the final month to help get Husted across the finish line. But his most widely circulated comments from these rallies focused more on complimenting Husted’s body than issues impacting voters.
Ohio’s race for governor attracted heightened attention in the closing stretch as GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy ran a controversial ad featuring the estranged mother of Amy Acton, his Democratic opponent. Acton has led Ramaswamy in recent polls, further suggesting the landscape might be ripe for Democratic wins on Tuesday.
Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in 32 years and a CNN Poll of Polls shows no clear leader in the race between James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
But a perfect storm of conditions may converge to make the Democratic dream of turning Texas blue a reality, even as the red nature of the state and the onslaught of GOP spending could lead to Democratic heartbreak once again.
A CNN Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader in the contest, but a pair of polls released in the last few days – including one from theNew York Times/Siena and another from CNN – show Talarico performing ahead of Paxton, outside the margin of error.
The CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month found the Democrat was benefiting from deeply negative impressions of Paxton and significant support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters in the state who turned toward Trump in 2024.
Fueled by strong fundraising, Talarico dominated the airwaves for the summer months after Paxton’s defeat of GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who warned of a “massacre” for Republican candidates in Texas if the state’s embattled attorney general was the nominee.
The GOP cavalry eventually came in for Paxton with more than $278 million in ad spending since the primary, according to AdImpact data. Musk – the largest disclosed donor in US politics – singlehandedly accounted for $168 million of the GOP spending on the race, which received more of his funds than any other contest.
Much of the GOP attacks on Talarico have hinged on cultural issues, including criticizing his past statements on gender and religion.
Texas leads all states in early voting with 7.7 million ballots cast, according to data from the Texas secretary of state. Early voting data has shown high turnout in Democratic counties. Latino voters, a voting bloc showing signs this year of shifting away from Trump, have made up a higher share of the early vote than the last election.
Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz has sounded the alarm about the early voting surge, saying Friday on his podcast, “We could lose every single statewide race.”
This is still Texas, a bastion of American conservatism. Trump won the state by double digits in 2024, and Republicans are depending on their base turning out in droves on Election Day despite some uneasiness around Paxton’s candidacy. Republicans are also watching how the option of a libertarian candidate might factor into voter decisions on Election Day.
4. Maine
At the start of the cycle, Maine was viewed as one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities. This Senate race was among the most volatile contests this cycle due to the sexual misconduct allegations around Graham Platner and his eventual exit from the race.
One day out, a CNN Poll of Polls average shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading GOP Sen. Susan Collins by 4 points – 50% to 46%.
Collins is the only GOP incumbent running in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. And polling also has shown the race is a referendum on Collins, who is running for a sixth term. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS found about three-quarters of likely voters behind each candidate in Maine said their choice is motivated by Collins more than Jackson.
The outstanding question is whether Collins can outrun her state’s negative views of the GOP and Trump. The senator continues to stress her independent approach, though Democrats argue she sides with Trump most of the time, including in their top ad in the final two weeks.
GOP groups have flooded the state with ads reminding voters what Collins has achieved for the state. The top Republican ad in the closing weeks leveled political and personal attacks against Jackson, calling him “a crook and a creep.”
Alaska moves down two spots as a late-breaking development regarding the two Dan Sullivans could be a wild card.
Republicans have long worried about the inclusion of a second Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher, on the four-way ranked-choice ballot in November, but The New York Times reporting alleging Democrats recruited a Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan injected new uncertainty in the race.
A NYT/Siena pollreleased Sunday showed no clear leader in the contest between Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola and Sen. Sullivan – 48% to 46% – suggesting a tightening in the race may have occurred. In August, Peltola came in 8 points ahead of the incumbent Sullivan in the state’s all-party primary in August.
Alaska is notoriously difficult to poll. Peltola out-raised Sullivan in the first two weeks of October and had more cash on hand entering the final stretch. But the GOP slightly outpaced Democrats in ad buys in the state for the last two weeks.
Peltola has denied any involvement in the alleged efforts to stack the ballot, even as Trump has suggested she drop out of the race and state and federal criminal investigations are underway. Legal experts are broadly skeptical that the alleged ballot-stacking rises to the level of a crime.
Alaska’s vote count could take longer than other states due to ranked choice voting and the state allows for mailed ballots postmarked before or on Election Day to be returned to the elections office within 10-15 days. In a close election, there could be a scenario where the Alaska results won’t be known for weeks.
Kansas moves up two spots as GOP Sen. Roger Marshall appears on shaky ground against Democrat Adam Hamilton, who is hoping to be the first Kansas Democrat elected to the US Senate since 1994.
A NYT/Siena poll released Sunday showed Hamilton leading Rogers 49% to 44%, while a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS found no clear leader in the contest. The CNN survey found a majority of likely voters said they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate but 53% view Marshall unfavorably.
Voters across the Midwest, including many farmers and ranchers, are feeling the squeeze of high diesel prices and Trump’s tariffs. A New York Times report about hundreds of former Marshall patients being sued for unpaid bills, with some even being arrested, has emerged as a flashpoint in the race.
Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, has tried to stitch together a broad coalition in a state Trump won by 16 points. The president traveled to the state on Sunday to rally his base voters, and Republicans are hoping the red-leaning landscape could ultimately prove insurmountable for Democrats.
But Democrats have made big moves to put the state in play in the final stretch. Democratic groups outspent Republicans by about $45.7 million to $31.5 million in October, and entering the final weeks, Hamilton had $2.9 million in the bank compared to Marshall’s $810,000.
Iowa keeps its spot in the race to replace GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.
CNN’s Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader in the contest between Democrat Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson who sit at 46% and 45%, respectively.
Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Hinson also has proven to be one of the most politically adept Republicans running this cycle. Though she has campaigned alongside the president, Hinson has worked to distance herself from the president on the Iran war, tariffs, and beef imports.
But the GOP congresswoman still faces voter angst over the rising cost of diesel, fertilizer and other goods utilized in the agriculturally reliant state. And like Kansas, Democrats outspent Republicans in October, here by nearly $20 million. A top Democratic ad during that period ties the GOP congresswoman to high gas prices, tariffs and the war with Iran while Republicans have run with an ad dinging Turek on immigration.
An expected strong performance by Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for governor, could also benefit Turek in the end.
Michigan shifts down two spots, as new signs suggest Democrat Abdul El-Sayed may have an upper hand over GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers – even as a stunning cross-party endorsement came into play in the closing days.
Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens on Sunday decided to abandon El-Sayed and back Rogers, a remarkable break from her party. The simmering tension between El-Sayed and Stevens exploded into public view in the final days of the campaign after a bruising primary – and a recent new argument – that hinged largely on differing views on US aid to Israel.
The Stevens endorsement, coming less than 48 hours before Election Day, highlights El-Sayed’s challenge in winning over parts of the Democratic coalition that favored Stevens in the primary, notably Black and Jewish voters.
But it also resulted in state and national Democrats – some of them no fans of El-Sayed – issuing strong statements Sunday in his favor. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whom CNN has reported unofficially backed Stevens in the primary, accused her of a “despicable betrayal.”
CNN’s Poll of Polls average shows El-Sayed leading Rogers in Michigan – 50 to 45%. That includes aNYT/Siena poll, which found El-Sayed with an 11-point advantage. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month revealed signs the progressive was consolidating support among Democrats, including earning the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters.
Some 1.5 million early votes had already been cast in the race as of Sunday, approaching half the number that were cast in Michigan during the entirety of the 2022 midterms.
Ultimately, this race could boil down to how Michiganders feel about the economy amid high gas prices and Trump’s trade war with Canada. One of the top Democratic ads for the final two weeks focused on healthcare as they attempted to link Rogers to high costs fueled by pharmaceutical companies.
The president has worked hard to turn out base voters in support of Rogers, who lost a Senate race in 2024 despite Trump appearing at the top of the ticket. But Rogers is also grappling with the unpopularity of Trump’s second term. The president’s approval rating with likely voters sits at 33%, according to CNN’s new poll.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas seems to be on more solid footing over GOP former Sen. John Sununu than during the summer months.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Centerpoll found Pappas up 12 points over Sununu among likely voters in the state. The survey also found Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte statistically tied with her Democratic opponent Cinde Warmington.
Some Republicans are still holding out hope that a strong showing by Ayotte could benefit Sununu. But negative views of Trump may dent Sununu despite his attempts to distance himself from the president.
South Carolina is moving onto this list for the first time.
A New York Times/Siena poll released last week showed a tied race between appointed GOP Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews, a physician.
Graham is running for a full term after her brother, Lindsey, unexpectedly died in July. She had shaky moments in her campaign, notably saying “national security is not my thing” when asked about Taiwan in a debate.
She has not won over key parts of the Republican base. GOP Rep. Ralph Norman, who was on stage during Graham’s debate flub and lost to her in a close primary runoff, revealed to CNN his entire family was not voting for his former opponent and argued she’s not a true conservative. Trump has visited the state twice in the last month as he looked to rally GOP voters to turn out.
Andrews has significantly out-raised Graham in the campaign. And outside spending has poured into the state, each side set to spend about $17 million over the final two weeks in a frantic scramble to reach voters.
The fundamentals of the state are still in Graham’s favor. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024. But the close nature of the race is giving some Republicans anxiety heading into election night.
Republicans started the cycle with Georgia as a top offensive opportunity, but one day before the election, a GOP win in the Senate race may be off the table.
Sen. Jon Ossoff has run a strong campaign and outpolled GOP Rep. Mike Collins, whom Trump endorsed in the GOP runoff, throughout the contest. Ossoff has also dramatically out-raised and outspent Collins.
The conversation around Ossoff has centered less around if he will be reelected than on whether he’ll decide to pursue higher office in 2028. He has repeatedly rejected talk of a White House run.
Though he’s expected to win on Tuesday, Ossoff’s political clout will still be tested. The Georgia Democrat has worked hard to lift gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in her race against GOP nominee Rick Jackson, so we’ll be watching to see whether Ossoff’s can help carry her in this competitive contest. (A Bottoms win would put her in a position to fill a Senate vacancy, which matters greatly to Democrats who want Ossoff to run for president.)
There are a number of states we were watching throughout this contest that never fully materialized as actual chess pieces on the battleground board. That includes two races featuring GOP incumbents – Nebraska and Mississippi – and another for a seat held by a retiring Democratic senator in Minnesota.
Maybe they would’ve come online in a more serious way with more money and time, but at this point, flips in these three states would be a big surprise on Tuesday.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/28/politics/video/georgia-senate-governor-jon-ossoff-keisha-lance-bottoms-rick-jackson-midterm-cmm-vrtc
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