2026年11月1日17:00:15.084Z / CNN
弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩——
一场持续十年的生存危机，无论进展是否顺利，都没有哪一步是容易的——尤其是民主党人屡次燃起的希望都被浇灭的情况下。
“这有点似曾相识，”艾琳·卢里亚（Elaine Luria）说道。2018年，她在唐纳德·特朗普首个任期内的民主党中期选举浪潮中，拿下了弗吉尼亚州第二国会选区的席位；2020年，她以微弱优势保住席位，助力民主党拿下勉强多数；2022年，随着共和党夺回微弱多数席位，她失去了席位，如今她正竞选要赢回这个席位。
“看看如今民众的感受，基层的热情——经历特朗普政府那地狱般时期的第二次……民众想要变革，”卢里亚说，“他们再也熬不住了。”
卢里亚在巴顿大学小礼堂的舞台上表示，民主党要拿到多数席位，必须拿下这个选区。提前投票数据显示，民主党表现优于共和党，党内热情也在高涨。
CNN了解到的党内内部民调显示，民主党领袖已经对中期选举的结果感到乐观，尽管他们会在周二计票过程中全力争取每一票。根据CNN的“民调中的民调”，民主党在通用国会选票中以9个百分点的优势领先共和党。
“共和党现在满脑子都是宴会厅和身材的话题。这就是他们的混乱状态，”纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）说，他是民主党领袖，周六与卢里亚一同出席活动，同时抨击了特朗普对白宫的改造以及他对共和党人体型的评价。
杰弗里斯发言结束后，人群拿着标语和其他竞选材料离开会场，前往更多选区敲门拉票。杰弗里斯则要搭乘飞机前往拯救众议员肖马里·菲格斯（Shomari Figures）的席位——菲格斯所在的阿拉巴马州选区，因今年春季最高法院削弱《投票权法案》的裁决，成为共和党瞄准的目标。
“会有太多竞争激烈的选区难以预测——我猜至少有20个，落败者得票率会在49%左右，所以要预测结果很难，”弗吉尼亚州众议员鲍比·斯科特（Bobby Scott）在卢里亚的集会结束后表示，他称自己虽乐观但也不确定结果。
2018年，克里斯·范霍伦（Chris Van Hollen）参议员担任民主党参议院竞选委员会主席，当时民主党成功守住了几个原本预计会失去的参议院席位，但未能拿到多数。这位马里兰州参议员表示，当年的选举被情绪崩溃的民主党人主导，他们都在谈论“反抗”。
范霍伦称，今年他从新墨西哥州到佐治亚州再到新罕布什尔州四处拉票，发现那些曾投票给特朗普谋求第二任期的人，已转向了更广泛的群体——因为他们想要特朗普承诺的更低物价和结束对外战争。
“这次的不同在于，特朗普候选人曾为赢取联盟选票许下的那些承诺，他现在彻底反悔了，”范霍伦告诉CNN。
芝加哥前市长、众议员拉姆·伊曼纽尔（Rahm Emanuel）曾协助监督乔治·W·布什第二任期内中期选举的竞选活动，他表示现在选民的感受与2006年不同。他认为，美国人对腐败的愤怒引发了反弹，尤其是黑人和拉丁裔选民。
2006年，“当时的情绪是失望、疲惫，”伊曼纽尔说，“现在是愤怒和怨恨。这能说明一些动机。”
但这并不意味着伊曼纽尔在周二就完全确信民调没有夸大特朗普和共和党的支持率，也不确定选区计票结果会带来怎样的意外。
“我不断提醒自己别和同圈人交流。所以我四处寻找任何负面信号，‘请给我找点不好的消息’，”伊曼纽尔说。对于那些担心又要失望的民主党同僚，他补充道：“你们可能是对的，但或许该把这份精力用在有意义的事上，而不是坐着干等。发消息、写邮件、打电话，哪怕站在高速公路中间都行，我不在乎你们做什么，只要用对精力。坐着紧张什么用都没有。”
两党的竞选团队都对焦点小组中流露的玩世不恭感到震惊，这种情绪遍布所有地域、人口统计、年龄和政治派别。对许多人而言，政治像是圈内人的游戏，而世界越来越像权贵阶层的游乐场，其他人则被抛在身后，物价上涨、生活变差。
候选人在竞选途中、超市通道，或是自己提前投票时，都能听到这些声音。愤怒、失望、被抛弃——这就是美国选民前往投票站时的心情。
众议院民主党竞选委员会主席、华盛顿州众议员苏珊·德尔本（Suzan DelBene）用“既自信又疑神疑鬼”来形容她备战周二的心态。
德尔本认为，拿下能让民主党成为多数党的三个席位是板上钉钉的——但两年前选举最后几天，她也曾觉得多数席位在握，结果并非如此。她表示，疑神疑鬼的原因是，能看到特朗普试图干扰选举结果的种种举动。
德尔本细数了竞选途中的对话：从民主党认为可以保住的俄亥俄州选区的提前投票中心，到他们希望翻转的亚利桑那州选区的“送餐上门”项目。她表示，每到一处，经济困境都显而易见；每到一处，她都试图让选民相信，民主党准备好提出真正的解决方案。
克利夫兰市长贾斯汀·比布（Justin Bibb）上周提前投票时说，他和一位女性聊过，对方哀叹杂货和处方药价格上涨。她带着全家人一起到投票站，对她来说这像是唯一该做的事。但比布表示，他担心那些欢庆大胜的民主党人会误解她和其他人愿意再给投票一次机会的原因。
比布称他理解全国上下的玩世不恭，希望其他民主党人也能理解，他已经开始和其他市长合作，计划若选举结果如他所愿，就向华盛顿施压要求回应。
“我们不能只靠听证会和弹劾来错失这个时机，”比布说，“民众需要看到自己的钱包鼓起来。”
范霍伦表示，在任何人开始计算委员会主席席位之前，首先要拿下选举。他在全国拉票时，最后常会讲2017年弗吉尼亚州众议院选举的故事：最终控制权由一个席位决定，该席位的选举打成平局，根据州法律，结果要靠抽签决定——最终共和党获胜。
“我不会依赖这些民调，”范霍伦说，“我恳求大家：别以为一切在握，别让控制权落到某一个选区的竞选上。”
这对选民、候选人和领袖来说都很难。德尔本表示，她在竞选最后阶段做了很多鼓劲讲话。
“这段时间压力很大。大家都累了，一直以来工作都特别辛苦，”德尔本说，“我和很多人交谈，只是说‘坚持下去’。选举这件事，终究会有结束的一天。”
Democratic leaders enter the midterms ‘confident and paranoid’
2026-11-01T17:00:15.084Z / CNN
Virginia Beach, Virginia—
No part of a rolling, decadelong existential crisis is ever easy, even when things seem on the cusp of going well — and especially when Democrats have had their hopes raised and dashed so many times.
“It’s a little bit of deja vu,” said Elaine Luria, who in 2018 flipped Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in the Democratic midterm wave during Donald Trump’s first term, held onto it in a squeaker in 2020 to help make up a slim majority, lost it in 2022 as part of Republicans winning their own small majority, and is now running to get it back.
“If you see how people are feeling today, the energy on the ground — the second time around living through this hell of the Trump administration … people want change,” Luria said. “They can’t take it anymore.”
The path to a Democratic majority runs through this district, Luria said onstage in the small theater of Batten University. Early voting data suggests Democrats are outperforming Republicans. The energy within the party is bubbling.
Internal polls described to CNN have Democratic leaders already smiling about how the midterms seem to be ending, even as they will bare-knuckle through the results as they come in Tuesday. They will enter the midterms with a 9-point advantage over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls.
“Republicans are closing talking about ballrooms and backsides. That’s the disarray the Republicans are in,” said New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader who joined Luria on Saturday, taking a swipe at Trump’s remake of the White House and his reviews of Republican physiques.
After Jeffries spoke, the crowd filed out grabbing signs and other campaign material, heading out to knock a few more doors. Jeffries was heading to a plane to try to save the seat of Rep. Shomari Figures, whose Alabama district Republicans targeted after the Supreme Court’s decision hollowing out the Voting Rights Act this spring.
“There are going to be so many close races that you can’t predict — my guess is at least 20, the loser will get 49% — so it’s just going to be difficult to predict,” said Rep. Bobby Scott of Virginia as he left the Luria rally, describing himself as upbeat but unsure.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen chaired the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm in 2018, when the party successfully defended several Senate seats it had been projected to lose while falling short of a majority. The Maryland senator said those elections were dominated by distraught Democrats talking about “the resistance.”
This year, as he’s been out campaigning from New Mexico to Georgia to New Hampshire, Van Hollen said, he’s been seeing a broader turn from those who backed Trump for a second term because they wanted the lower prices and end to foreign wars he promised.
“This time what’s different is on these promises that candidate Trump made that helped him win votes among his coalition, he’s done a 180,” Van Hollen told CNN.
Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor and congressman who helped oversee the campaigns that led to the midterms romp during George W. Bush’s second term, said the sense he’s getting from voters is different from 2006. He believes there is a backlash from Americans enraged by corruption, particularly among Black and Latino voters.
In 2006, “the emotion was disappointed, tired,” Emanuel said. “Here, it’s anger and bitterness. And that tells you something about the motivation.”
That doesn’t mean Emanuel is going into Tuesday fully confident that the polls aren’t missing the level of support for Trump and Republicans and that turnout won’t bring surprises as the precinct breakdowns come in.
“I keep checking to make sure we’re not all talking to each other. So I’m walking around looking for anything, ‘Please give me a negative,’” Emanuel said. To his fellow Democrats anxious that they’re about to be disappointed again, Emanuel added, “You might be right, but you may want to use that energy in a productive way rather than sitting around. Text, email, phone call, stand in the middle of the highway. I don’t care what you do, but just use it. There’s nothing productive getting done by being sitting there and being nervous.”
Operatives in both parties have been stunned at the cynicism coming across in focus groups, spanning every geographic, demographic, age and political category. Politics is, to many, seen as a game for the insiders in a world that looks more and more like a playground for the rich and powerful, with everyone else left behind while their costs go up and their lives get worse.
The candidates are hearing it all on the trail, in supermarket aisles, or when showing up to vote early themselves. Anger, disappointment, abandonment — that’s what’s coursing through American voters as they head to the polls.
“Confident and paranoid” is how Washington state Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, described her mindset going into Tuesday.
Netting the three seats that would put her party in the majority seems a given to DelBene — but then again, she went through the final days of the election two years ago, when the majority also felt in reach. The paranoia, she says, comes from the ways she can see Trump trying to interfere with the election results.
DelBene ticked through conversations she’s been having on the trail, from an early voting center in an Ohio district that Democrats believe they can hold to a Meals on Wheels location in an Arizona district they are hoping to flip. At every stop, she says, the economic pain is palpable. At every stop, she tries to get voters to believe that Democrats are ready to come in with some real solutions.
Voting early last week, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said he talked to a woman who was lamenting how the price of her groceries and prescriptions have gone up. She brought her whole family with her to the polling place. To her, that seemed like the only thing to do. But Bibb said he’s worried Democrats gleeful about big wins are going to misunderstand why she and others bothered to give voting one more chance.
He understands the cynicism out in the country, Bibb said. He hopes other Democrats do too, and he’s already starting to organize with fellow mayors on how to press Washington, DC, to respond if and when the results come in as he’s hoping.
“We can’t miss this moment with just hearings and impeachment proceedings,” Bibb said. “People need to see their pocketbooks improve.”
Before anyone starts counting committee chairmanships, Van Hollen said, first they need to actually win. As he stumps around the country, the senator often ends by telling the story of the 2017 races for the Virginia House of Delegates. At the end, control was decided by one seat, and the election of that seat was a tie, leaving it decided under state law by a game of chance —in the case, drawing slips of paper out of a bowl. Republicans won.
“I would not rely on these polls,” Van Hollen said. “My plea is: Don’t take anything for granted, don’t let control come down to one campaign.”
That can be hard for the voters and candidates and leaders alike. DelBene says she’s been spending the final stretch of the campaign doing a lot of pep talks.
“It’s a very stressful time. Folks are tired. They’ve been working incredibly hard,” DelBene said. “I have a lot of conversations with folks just to say, ‘Keep going.’ The one thing about an election is: There is an end date.”
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