发布时间：2026-11-01T11:00:15.479Z
信息源URL：https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/01/politics/election-night-midterm-races
中期选举几乎总是对总统所在政党不利，有时甚至会严重不利，偶尔还会出现历史级的惨败。
周二的选举似乎已注定会出现第一种结果，共和党人愈发担心第二种情况发生，而越来越多的民主党人则敢于憧憬第三种情况的出现。
最新民调主要为民主党提供了乐观依据：对总统的态度已成为影响中期选举结果的最重要因素，目前唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率远低于2018年（当年共和党丢掉了超过40个众议院席位），也远低于巴拉克·奥巴马、乔治·W·布什和比尔·克林顿在其所在政党遭遇中期选举重大失利前的支持率水平。竞选最后几日的民调显示，民主党在长期由共和党主导的州，包括得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州，乃至堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州，都展现出了优势。
但正因选举战场高度集中在共和党倾向的选区，多数民主党人仍对结果感到紧张，尤其是参议院席位的争夺。在两党全力竞争的大多数州和众议院选区中，共和党选民数量仍多于民主党；如果特朗普的竞选造势加上共和党巨额竞选开支的优势，能动员出超过民调机构预期的选民，就会抵消民主党在红州的微弱优势。
资深民主党民调分析师保罗·马斯林表示：“对我们一方来说，最好的消息是，鉴于共和党坐拥的竞选资金，外界原本预期的共和党在选战后期掀起的声势浩大的‘涨潮’并未出现。在这些支持度领先两位数的红州，问题的关键在于：（我们的领先优势）是否稳固到足以让我们撑到最后？”
以下是一份按难度等级划分的选举之夜指南：从东到西，笔者试图甄别众议院、参议院和州长选举的结果，以判断民主党是正朝着“良好之夜”推进、“出色之夜”推进，还是取得堪比1994年和2010年共和党大胜、2006年民主党“压倒性胜利”的历史性突破。
相反，如果民主党在周二的“良好”类选举中输掉的席位不止少数几个，那么结果很可能会令他们失望，甚至更糟。
当晚选情走向的首批关键信号将主要来自东部各州的选举，因为该地区的投票站最早关闭。
弗吉尼亚州的投票站晚7点关闭（所有关闭时间均为东部时间），若民主党在弗吉尼亚州第二国会选区（VA-2）的选举中获胜，将表明该党有望取得稳定的表现。此次选举中，前民主党众议员伊莱恩·卢里亚正与2022年击败她的共和党人珍·基根斯展开重赛，该选区在2024年的总统选举中，特朗普仅以不到1个百分点的优势胜出。若未能拿下该选区，将是民主党表现不及预期的早期信号。
如果民主党还能赢得弗吉尼亚州第一国会选区（VA-1）的席位，这将预示着规模更大的“蓝色浪潮”即将到来。该选区中，共和党人罗布·威特曼正竭力抵御民主党人香农·泰勒的冲击，而特朗普曾以5个百分点的优势赢得该选区。弗吉尼亚大学政治中心旗下《萨巴托水晶球》通讯的主编凯尔·孔迪克预测，如果前民主党众议员汤姆·佩里洛成功击败共和党众议员约翰·麦圭尔，弗吉尼亚州第五国会选区（VA-5）——特朗普曾以12个百分点的优势胜出的席位——将表明民主党有望赢得比2018年的235个席位更多的席位。
宾夕法尼亚州的投票站晚8点关闭，该州呈现出类似的选情进展。如果民主党能在宾夕法尼亚州第七国会选区（PA-7）击败共和党现任议员瑞安·麦肯齐、在宾夕法尼亚州第十国会选区（PA-10）击败斯科特·佩里，将表明该党有望取得稳定表现。这两个选区均以蓝领工人为主，特朗普仅以5个百分点或更少的优势胜出。若民主党人佩奇·科涅蒂在以蓝领工人为主的宾夕法尼亚州东北部宾夕法尼亚州第八国会选区（PA-8）击败共和党现任众议员罗布·布雷斯诺汉，共和党将更加紧张，因为该选区特朗普曾以超过8个百分点的优势胜出。
从理论上讲，宾夕法尼亚州第一国会选区（PA-1）应为民主党提供该州翻转向众议院席位的最佳机会。该选区聚集了大量在特朗普时代疏远共和党的高学历、中上阶层选民。但自2016年首次当选以来，共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克多年来一直巧妙地游走于与特朗普保持距离又不完全决裂的边缘。如果民主党人鲍勃·哈维能击败菲茨帕特里克，将是“蓝色浪潮”历史性爆发的又一信号——表明对特朗普感到不满的白领选民正在要求更无条件地反对他的议程。
政治网站Decision Desk HQ的首席选举分析师杰弗里·斯凯莱表示：“这就是‘浪潮式选举’会出现的那种情况。现任议员原本实力强劲，且能与本党保持足够距离以超越（选区的党派倾向）；但如果选情环境恶化到一定程度……他就很难再与本党划清界限了。”
缅因州的投票站同样晚8点关闭，如果民主党人汉娜·平格里在缅因州州长选举中轻松获胜，将表明该党有望实现稳定的选情目标。如果进步派民主党人马修·邓拉普能击败前共和党州长保罗·勒佩奇，拿下以蓝领工人和农村人口为主的缅因州第二国会选区（ME-2），将预示民主党之夜将更加出色。
缅因州参议院选举的对决在共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯和民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊之间展开，这将是该州乃至整个东北部最受关注的选举。柯林斯是特朗普在三次总统选举中全部输掉的19个州中仅剩的共和党参议员，也是特朗普第一任期内，唯一在出口民调显示更多选民不认可其工作表现而非认可的州中获胜的参议院现任或挑战者。
自民主党人提名他作为替补候选人（原初选胜者格雷厄姆·普拉特纳因丑闻退选）以来，杰克逊一直是一位表现稳定但起伏不定的竞选者。如果杰克逊获胜，将是民主党超出预期的又一信号——表明“特朗普退潮”（上周CNN在缅因州的最新民调显示，特朗普的不支持率达到67%）正在席卷摇摆州或倾向民主党的地区中，即便是最有技巧、根基最深的共和党人。
在该地区其他地方，如果民主党人丽贝卡·贝内特能在新泽西州第七国会选区（NJ-7）击败共和党众议员汤姆·基恩（该选区为高学历选区，特朗普仅以微弱优势胜出），将表明该党有望迎来良好之夜。如果民主党人凯特·康利能在纽约州第十七国会选区（NY-17）击败更强的对手共和党众议员迈克·劳勒，将预示“蓝色浪潮”更为强劲，因为该选区同样是白领选区，特朗普仅以微弱优势胜出。如果民主党人布莱克·甘德本能在纽约州第二十一国会选区（NY-21）实现翻转，将标志着浪潮达到历史性高度，该选区是纽约州北部以白人为主的工人阶级选区，众议员爱丽丝·斯蒂芬尼克即将卸任。
南部各州的首批选情线索将来自佐治亚州，该地区的投票站晚7点关闭。民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫在今年秋季的佐治亚州参议院选举中一直领先共和党人迈克·柯林斯，若他成功连任，将表明民主党达到预期目标。尽管共和党人里克·杰克逊投入了巨额资金竞选，但如果基莎·兰斯·博顿斯能在佐治亚州州长选举中实现翻盘，将显示该党表现超出预期。
北卡罗来纳州的投票站晚7点30分关闭，也将提供早期选情信号。卡托巴学院政治学与历史学教授、卡罗莱纳政治博客的主要作者迈克尔·比策表示，前民主党州长罗伊·库珀在北卡罗来纳州参议院选举中处于明显领先地位，但如果他的胜选幅度至少达到6个百分点，将表明该党正朝着良好之夜推进。
如果民主党众议员唐纳德·戴维斯能守住北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区（NC-1），将是民主党表现良好的又一信号。该选区是共和党通过重新划分选区划定的，特朗普曾以超过11个百分点的优势赢得该选区；如果温和派民主党人杰米·阿格能翻转北卡罗来纳州第十一国会选区（NC-11），将同样令人印象深刻，该选区因丑闻缠身的共和党众议员查克·爱德华兹卸任而空出，特朗普曾以约10个百分点的优势赢得该选区。如果民主党能拿下其他任何由共和党控制的席位，包括北卡罗来纳州第三国会选区（NC-3）（众议员格雷戈里·墨菲的选区，特朗普曾以22个百分点的优势胜出），或全国共和党国会委员会主席理查德·哈德森任职的北卡罗来纳州第九国会选区（NC-9），都将标志着该党历史性突破。
佛罗里达州的投票站最晚在晚8点关闭，民主党的基础测试是能否守住两个被共和党重新划分为更倾向红党的席位。如果民主党众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨能在佛罗里达州第二十五国会选区（FL-25）获胜，将表明民主党趋势向好；民主党众议员凯西·卡斯托在佛罗里达州第十四国会选区（FL-14）的连任将衡量出更强劲的势头，民主党众议员达伦·索托在佛罗里达州第九国会选区（FL-9）的获胜亦是如此，这两个选区都是共和党重新划分的右翼倾向选区。若民主党能在共和党现议员安娜·保利娜·卢娜任职的佛罗里达州第十三国会选区（FL-13）或共和党空出的佛罗里达州第七国会选区（FL-7）获胜，也将标志着佛罗里达民主党之夜非常出色；若前共和党人、民主党提名人戴维·乔利能在佛罗里达州州长选举中击败拜伦·唐纳德，同样会产生这一结果。
如果民主党能将资深共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉查从以拉丁裔为主的佛罗里达州第二十七国会选区（FL-27）赶下台，浪潮将达到历史性规模，特朗普曾以15个百分点的优势赢得该选区，而她在移民执法问题上比其他任何国会共和党人都更公开地与特朗普划清界限；如果进步派民主党人安吉·尼克松能在佛罗里达州参议院选举中击败共和党人阿什利·穆迪，浪潮将达到5级飓风强度。
同样，如果民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯能在南卡罗来纳州参议院选举中实现翻盘，将标志着民主党的历史性之夜。该州投票站晚7点关闭，现任参议员是由已故兄弟林赛·格雷厄姆去世后任命的共和党人达琳·格雷厄姆。民主党上一次在该州赢得参议院席位还是1998年的弗里茨·霍林斯。如果民主党人斯科特·科洛姆能在密西西比州参议院选举中击败共和党人辛迪·海德-史密斯，将更为了不起，民主党上一次在该州赢得参议院席位是1982年。
得克萨斯州的投票站最晚在晚9点关闭，民主党自1988年以来就没有选出过联邦参议员。尽管有埃隆·马斯克等人资助的共和党超级政治行动委员会投入巨额资金，若民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉西科能在得克萨斯州参议院选举中击败丑闻缠身的共和党提名人肯·帕克斯顿，将表明民主党在该州乃至全国正朝着出色之夜推进。如果民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨能在得克萨斯州州长选举中击败共和党人格雷格·阿博特，尽管后者拥有巨额竞选开支优势，这将代表民主党实现更具历史性的突破。多位竞选两党候选人的资深说客比尔·米勒表示，两位候选人的胜利，尤其是伊诺霍萨的胜利，将构成得克萨斯州民主党的“一代性胜利”。
米勒表示：“这里的关键是，选情环境对民主党有利，而资金对共和党有利，两者的平衡将取决于：谁能动员更多选民投票？共和党人比民主党人更多，如果共和党人做得更好，他们将赢得一场势均力敌的选举；如果做得不好，就会输掉这场选举。”
得克萨斯州众议院选举也将提供有价值的参考指标，尤其是用于衡量特朗普在2024年对拉丁裔选民的支持浪潮，自那以来他已失去了多少支持。民主党人亨利·库利亚尔在得克萨斯州第二十八国会选区（TX-28）、文森特·冈萨雷斯在得克萨斯州第三十四国会选区（TX-34）的连任（这两个南得克萨斯选区是共和党为削弱现任议员而重新划定的）将表明民主党达到预期；如果特哈诺歌手鲍比·普利多能在得克萨斯州第十五国会选区（TX-15）击败共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉·克鲁兹（该选区特朗普曾以18个百分点的优势胜出），以及/或者治安官副手约翰尼·加西亚能守住空出的得克萨斯州第三十五国会选区（TX-35）（特朗普曾以近11个百分点的优势赢得该选区），将表明民主党在拉丁裔选民中的表现超出预期。如果民主党人凯蒂·帕迪利亚·斯托特能在空出的得克萨斯州第二十三国会选区（TX-23）击败立场激进的共和党人布兰登·埃雷拉，将标志着民主党浪潮达到海啸级别。
在过去十年里，美国中部地区在大幅转向特朗普和共和党后，如今再次成为美国政治的核心。
天然气和柴油价格高企、特朗普关税对农业经济的破坏性影响，以及总统对遍布这些州的白人工人阶级选民的控制力减弱，均让民主党人看到了在多年下滑的地区实现复苏的希望。正如斯凯莱指出的，所有这些因素都让民主党有理由保持乐观，认为中西部可能比其他地区更倾向于支持他们。
该地区的早期民意调查将来自两个所有投票站都在晚7点关闭的州。如果民主党人扎克·登博能拿下共和党空出的肯塔基州第六国会选区（KY-6）（特朗普曾以15个百分点的优势赢得该选区），或者J·D·福特能击败共和党众议员维多利亚·斯帕茨在印第安纳州第五国会选区（IN-5）的竞选（特朗普曾以近17个百分点的优势赢得该选区），将使该党朝着出色之夜推进。
该地区的首个全面信号将来自俄亥俄州，其投票站晚7点30分关闭。在共和党重新划分该州国会选区后，民主党现任议员格雷格·兰斯曼在俄亥俄州第一国会选区（OH-1）、尤其是玛西·卡普图尔在俄亥俄州第九国会选区（OH-9）的连任将表明该党处于稳定轨道；如果民主党钢铁工人布赖恩·波因德克斯特能在俄亥俄州第七国会选区（OH-7）击败陷入困境的共和党众议员马克斯·米勒（该选区特朗普曾以11个百分点的优势胜出），也会有同样的效果。
民主党在关键全州选举中的胜利将标志着更大的突破。如果前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗能在俄亥俄州参议院选举中击败共和党现任议员乔恩·赫斯特德，将表明民主党正在从特朗普时代蓝领白人选民手中失去的部分地盘上重新夺回。尽管民主党自2006年以来就没有赢得过俄亥俄州州长选举，但艾米·阿克顿已成为自掏腰包的共和党人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米的明显领跑者，尤其是在拉马斯瓦米近期发布包含其疏远母亲的广告后，该广告引发了两党的强烈反对。驻俄亥俄州的民主党顾问杰夫·鲁斯纳克预测：“只要民主党选民投票率不崩溃，布朗和阿克顿就会处于有利位置。”
如果民主党能在俄亥俄州第十国会选区（OH-10）或俄亥俄州第十五国会选区（OH-15）实现出人意料的翻盘，将更令人惊讶。这两个选区现任议员分别是共和党众议员迈克·特纳和迈克·凯里，特朗普曾分别以8个百分点和10个百分点的优势赢得这两个选区。鲁斯纳克表示：“特纳和凯里若落败，将是一场‘大海啸’。”
中西部的下一个重要信号将来自所有投票站都晚9点关闭的州。在艾奥瓦州，如果民主党人能在艾奥瓦州第一国会选区（IA-1）击败共和党人马里安内特·米勒-米克斯、在艾奥瓦州第三国会选区（IA-3）击败扎克·纳恩，而特朗普曾分别以8个百分点和4个百分点的优势赢得这两个选区，将表明该党达到预期目标。如果民主党人罗布·桑能在艾奥瓦州州长选举中获胜，将符合预期，尽管民主党自2006年以来就没有在该州赢得过州长席位，且桑全年在民调中一直领先。
如果民主党能在艾奥瓦州第二国会选区（IA-2）实现出人意料的翻盘，将标志着更大的浪潮。该选区一向倾向共和党，现由该党参议院候选人阿什利·欣森空出；如果民主党人乔希·图雷克能在竞争激烈的艾奥瓦州参议院选举中击败欣森，将达到同样效果。与俄亥俄州的布朗类似，图雷克若获胜，只能在民主党至少恢复部分蓝领白人支持（包括受特朗普关税和柴油价格上涨重创的农村地区）的情况下才有可能实现。
威斯康星州呈现类似态势：如果民主党人丽贝卡·库克能在威斯康星州第三国会选区（WI-3）击败共和党人德里克·范·奥尔登，将标志着该党之夜顺利；如果民主党人米切尔·伯曼能在威斯康星州第一国会选区（WI-1）击败共和党人布莱恩·斯蒂尔，且民主党人大卫·克劳利能在空出的威斯康星州州长选举中获胜，将表明情况更加乐观。
在密歇根州，民主党人乔斯林·本森在密歇根州州长选举中的轻松获胜是民主党之夜顺利的基线；翻转共和党控制的密歇根州第四国会选区（MI-4）和密歇根州第七国会选区（MI-7）也将表明民主党仍在朝着良好之夜推进。艾米·沃尔特联合创办的库克政治报告的高级选举分析师大卫·瓦瑟曼指出：第七选区对民主党更为有利，但其提名人进步派人士威廉·劳伦斯的实力不如州参议员肖恩·麦坎恩在第四选区的实力。
无论这些选举结果如何，对民主党表现的评判将取决于激烈的密歇根州参议院选举。民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯（他在2024年的参议院选举中以微弱劣势落败）陷入胶着，最近这场竞争因特朗普和其他共和党人发表的针对埃尔-赛义德的反伊斯兰言论而主导，他们称这位穆斯林人士为“圣战分子”。
在这场舆论攻击前，埃尔-赛义德若能保留这个空出的民主党席位，可能仅代表该党守住了阵地。但如果埃尔-赛义德能在风暴中幸存，即便一些犹太民主党人明显倒戈，也将是另一个信号——“特朗普退潮”（新的CNN密歇根州民调显示，特朗普的不支持率飙升至66%）过于强大，即便其他因素对共和党有利，也无法克服。
如果民主党人亚当·马歇尔能在堪萨斯州参议院选举中击败共和党人罗杰·汉密尔顿，将进一步强化这一信息（该州自1932年以来就没有选出过民主党参议员）；如果独立候选人丹·奥斯本能推翻共和党人格特·里基茨在内布拉斯加州参议院选举中的席位；或者独立候选人布赖恩·本格斯能在南达科他州参议院选举中意外击败共和党参议员迈克·朗兹，民主党在任何一场这些选举中的胜利，都将使当晚的浪潮达到海啸级别。
科罗拉多州和亚利桑那州的投票站均晚9点（东部时间）关闭，为民主党提供了清晰的机会进展。
在科罗拉多州第八国会选区（CO-8），共和党人格比·埃文斯正竭力抵御前州议员曼尼·鲁蒂内尔的挑战，该选区位于丹佛北部，特朗普曾以不到2个百分点的优势胜出，若民主党获胜将表明该党表现良好；如果民主党陆军退役军人杰西卡·基伦能在科罗拉多州第五国会选区（CO-5）击败共和党人杰夫·克兰克，该选区特朗普曾以9个百分点的优势胜出，将标志着民主党之夜非常出色；如果民主党能将共和党众议员杰夫·赫urd从科罗拉多州第三国会选区（CO-3）、尤其是劳伦·博伯特从科罗拉多州第四国会选区（CO-4）赶下台，浪潮将达到山高级别的规模，特朗普曾以超过18个百分点的优势赢得该选区。
在已成为常年摇摆州的亚利桑那州，民主党人凯蒂·霍布斯在亚利桑那州州长选举中轻松击败强硬派共和党人安迪·比格斯，似乎是民主党之夜顺利的最低标准；翻转共和党众议员戴维·施韦克特空出的亚利桑那州第一国会选区（AZ-1）同样重要，该选区位于凤凰城东北郊区，选民教育水平和财富程度高。特朗普特别关注支持共和党提名人杰伊·费利，这位前NFL踢球手、总统的长期高尔夫好友，但他目前在民主党提名人阿米什·沙阿面前处于劣势；如果民主党海军陆战队退役军人乔安娜·门多萨能在以图森郊区为中心、特朗普曾以不到1个百分点的优势胜出的亚利桑那州第六国会选区（AZ-6）击败试图将自己定位为温和派的共和党众议员胡安·西斯卡莫尼，将更令人印象深刻。
阿拉斯加州的投票站最晚在凌晨1点关闭，民主党前州众议员乔纳森·克雷斯-汤普金斯在阿拉斯加州州长选举中已确立了自己的强劲领跑者地位（甚至上周得到了共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基的支持），若他获胜，将表明民主党在该州处于稳定轨道。
若前联邦众议员、民主党人玛丽·佩托拉能在阿拉斯加州参议院选举中击败共和党参议员丹·S·沙利文，将更为重要，沙利文强调自己在开放该州油气开发方面的作用，大多数阿拉斯加人认为这是繁荣的引擎。阿拉斯加自1959年加入联邦以来仅选出过4名民主党参议员，自1980年以来仅1名。但佩托拉将成为首位当选联邦参议员的阿拉斯加原住民，她已扎根于该州（她独特的竞选口号是“鱼、家庭、自由”），并得益于对飙升的天然气和柴油成本的普遍不满。
特朗普政府已提前提起诉讼，试图在佩托拉获胜时宣布结果无效，因为一位名叫丹·J·沙利文的候选人进入了该州排序复选投票系统的最终四名单。大多数法律观察人士认为，该诉讼成功的机会渺茫。但《纽约时报》上周晚些时候披露的惊人报道显示，与佩托拉竞选团队结盟的民主党人曾努力招募另一位丹·沙利文参选，这促使阿拉斯加州共和党州长和司法部展开调查。即便许多选举法专家认为该争议也不太可能为推翻结果提供任何法律依据，这一争议仍可能对她的选举产生不利影响。
在美国西部其他地区，如果进步派人士兰迪·比利亚加斯最终能将长期在加利福尼亚州第二十二国会选区（CA-22）站稳脚跟的共和党人大卫·瓦拉多赶下台，将对民主党有利；该选区是加州中央谷地的摇摆选区，以拉丁裔为主。中右翼民主党众议员玛丽·格卢森坎普·佩雷斯在华盛顿州第三国会选区（WA-3）的连任代表了类似的难度，特朗普曾以3个百分点的优势赢得该选区，位于华盛顿州西南部。这两个州的投票站均晚11点关闭。
如果民主党州长蒂娜·科特克能在俄勒冈州州长选举中抵御共和党人克里斯汀·德拉赞的挑战（该州的投票站同样晚11点关闭），即便她的支持率下滑、民众对经济和波特兰持续的无家可归问题不满，也将发出更强烈的信号，表明对特朗普的反对在蓝州共和党人中是难以逾越的障碍；如果民主党总检察长亚伦·福特能在内华达州州长选举中意外击败共和党人乔·隆巴多（该州的投票站晚10点关闭），将同样标志着民主党的势头更强劲。若民主党森林消防员萨姆·福斯塔格能在蒙大拿州第一国会选区（MT-1）获胜，将达到类似效果，该选区特朗普曾以近12个百分点的优势胜出。
民主党在另外两个众议院选区的胜利将标志着历史性浪潮。一个是亚利桑那州第二国会选区（AZ-2），特朗普曾以15个百分点的优势赢得该选区，共和党众议员伊莱·克兰正面临前纳瓦霍族总统乔纳森·内兹的挑战。另一个是内华达州北部的空出的内华达州第二国会选区（NV-2），两年前特朗普曾以14个百分点的优势赢得该选区。
此前民调机构曾错过特朗普核心支持者的投票率激增，这仍可能削弱民主党的进展。但本周共和党在选举中取得的任何成果，只要未达到历史级惨败，都将是不错的结果。
If a blue wave is coming, here are the races where it will start
Published Time: 2026-11-01T11:00:15.479Z
URL Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/01/politics/election-night-midterm-races
Midterm elections are almost always bad for the president’s party. Sometimes they are very bad for the president’s party. And every so often they are historically bad.
The first outcome seems guaranteed on Tuesday. Republicans are increasingly wary of the second. And more Democrats are daring to dream of the third.
Late polling mostly provides Democrats reason for optimism. Attitudes toward the president have become the most important factor shaping midterm outcomes, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating today is much lower than in 2018 when Republicans lost over 40 House seats; it’s well below the levels of Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton before their parties suffered major midterm losses. Surveys in the campaign’s final days have found Democrats showing strength in states that Republicans have long dominated, including Texas, Ohio, and even Kansas and South Carolina.
But precisely because the electoral battlefield is concentrated so heavily in Republican-leaning terrain, most Democrats remain nervous about the outcome, especially in the Senate. In most of the states and House districts that both parties are fully contesting, Republican voters still outnumber Democrats; if the combination of Trump’s campaign blitz and the heavy GOP spending advantage can mobilize more of them than pollsters now expect, that would erase some of the narrow Democratic advantages in red places.
“The best news for our side is that the vaunted Republican surge at the end that many would have expected given all their money just hasn’t happened,” says Paul Maslin, a longtime Democratic pollster. “In these double-digit red states, it’s simply a case of are (our leads) baked in enough for us to pull through?”
What follows is an election night guide organized, in effect, by degree of difficulty. Moving from East to West, it’s my attempt to identify House, Senate and governor races that indicate whether Democrats are on track for a good night, a very good night, or a historic breakthrough comparable to the Republican landslides in 1994 and 2010, and the Democratic “thumpin’” in 2006.
Conversely, if Democrats on Tuesday lose more than a handful of the races in the “good” category, it will indicate the results could leave them disappointed, or worse.
The first big indications of the night’s direction will come primarily from races in the East, because polls close earliest in the region.
In Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. (all closing times are Eastern), a Democratic win in the VA-2 House race will be a sign the party is on track for a solid performance. In that race, former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is pursuing a rematch against Republican Jen Kiggans, who beat her in 2022 in a district Trump carried by less than a point in 2024. Not winning this race would be an early sign that Democrats are underperforming.
If Democrats also win the VA-1 congressional seat, that will augur a larger wave. In that seat, Republican Rob Wittman is straining to hold off Democrat Shannon Taylor in a seat Trump carried by five points. If former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello ousts Republican Rep. John McGuire, who is finishing his first term in VA-5 — a seat Trump carried by 12 points — it will signal the party is on track to win even more than the 235 seats they captured in 2018, predicts Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Pennsylvania, where polls close at 8 p.m., offers a similar progression. Democrats will be on track for a solid performance if they beat Republican incumbents in Ryan Mackenzie in PA-7 and Scott Perry in PA-10, two heavily blue-collar districts that Trump won by five points or less. Republicans will grow even more nervous if Democrat Paige Cognetti ousts first-term GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan in PA-8, another heavily blue-collar district in Northeast Pennsylvania that Trump won by over eight points.
On paper, PA-1 should offer Democrats their best chance of flipping a House seat in the commonwealth. It’s crowded with the well-educated, upper middle-class voters who have recoiled from the GOP in the Trump era. But GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who was first elected in 2016, has for years effectively walked the tightrope of distancing from Trump without fully breaking from him. If Democrat Bob Harvie beats Fitzpatrick, that will be another sign of a historic wave — and an indication that white-collar voters disenchanted with Trump are demanding more unconditional opposition to his agenda.
“This is the kind of stuff that happens in a wave,” says Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ, a political website. “An incumbent has been strong; he’s been able to distinguish himself from his party enough to outperform (the district’s partisan lean). And then the environment gets bad enough and … suddenly it’s a lot harder to keep yourself separate from the party.”
In Maine, where polls also close at 8 p.m., a comfortable victory for Democrat Hannah Pingree in the Maine governor race will be a sign that the party is meeting its marks for a solid night. If progressive Democrat Matthew Dunlap beats former GOP Gov. Paul LePage to hold the heavily blue-collar and rural ME-2 Congressional District, that will signal an even better night for Democrats.
The Maine Senate contest between Republican incumbdent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson will be the most closely watched race in the state — and indeed the entire Northeast. Collins is the last Republican senator left in the 19 states that have voted against Trump in all three of his presidential races. And she was the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger during Trump’s first term who won in a state where the exit polls showed more voters disapproved than approved of his job performance.
Jackson has been a solid, though uneven, campaigner since Democrats tapped him as a replacement candidate when their primary winner Graham Platner was capsized by scandal. If Jackson wins, it will be another sign that Democrats are exceeding expectations — and that the Trump undertow (his disapproval hit 67% in the latest CNN Maine poll last week) is submerging even the most skillful and entrenched Republicans in swing or blue-tilting areas.
Elsewhere in the region, a win for Democrat Rebecca Bennett over Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in the NJ-7 House race, another well-educated district Trump won narrowly, would show the party on track for a good night. If Democrat Cait Conley beats GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, a more formidable opponent, in NY-17, yet another white-collar seat Trump narrowly carried, it would signal a stronger wave. And if Democrat Blake Gendebien flips NY-21, the preponderantly working-class White upstate New York seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik, the wave will be reaching historic heights.
The first clues from the South will come from Georgia, where polls close at 7 p.m. A solid reelection victory for Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has led Republican Mike Collins in polls for the Georgia Senate race all fall, would show the Democrats meeting expectations. An upset win for Keisha Lance Bottoms over Republican Rick Jackson in the Georgia governor race, despite the massive sums he has poured into his own campaign, would show the party exceeding them.
North Carolina, where polls close at 7:30 p.m., will also offer early markers. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is strongly favored to flip the North Carolina Senateseat, but if he wins by at least 6 points, it will be a sign that the party is headed for a good night, says Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history at Catawba College, and principal author of a blog on Carolina politics.
Other signs of a good Democratic performance will come if Rep. Donald Davis survives in the NC-1 seat, which state Republicans redistricted to produce one that Trump carried by over 11 points. As impressive will be if moderate Democrat Jamie Ager flips NC-11, a district vacated by scandal-tarred Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards that Trump carried by about 10 points. If Democrats capture any other GOP-held seats — including Rep. Gregory Murphy in NC-3, a district Trump won by 22 points, or the NC-9 seat now held by Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee — that would signal historic breakthroughs for the party.
In Florida, where the last polls close at 8 p.m., the baseline tests for Democrats are whether they can hold two seats that Republicans redistricted to tilt more red. A win for Rep. Jared Moskowitz in FL-25 would show a positive trend for Democrats; reelection for Rep. Kathy Castor in FL-14 would measure an even stronger current, as would a win for Rep. Darren Soto in FL-9, another seat the GOP redrew to tilt right. Victories for Democrats in either FL-13, now held by Republican Anna Paulina Luna, or FL-7, a Republican open seat, would also mark a very good night for Florida Democrats. So would a victory by Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican, over Byron Donalds in the Florida governor race.
The storm will reach historic proportions if Democrats oust veteran GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar in heavily Hispanic FL-27, a seat Trump carried by 15 points; she has broken with Trump more openly over immigration enforcement than any other Congressional Republican. And the gale will reach Category 5 levels if progressive Democrat Angie Nixon beats Republican Ashley Moody in the Florida Senate race.
Likewise, an upset for Democrat Annie Andrews over Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, in the South Carolina Senate race (where polls close at 7 p.m.), would mark a historic night for Democrats; the party hasn’t elected a senator there since Fritz Hollings in 1998. A victory for Democrat Scott Colom over Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race would be even more remarkable: No Democrat has won a Senate seat there since 1982.
In Texas, where the last polls close at 9 p.m., Democrats haven’t elected a US senator since 1988. A win for James Talarico over Ken Paxton, the scandal-tarred Republican nominee, in the Texas Senate contest despite massive Republican super PAC spending funded by Elon Musk and others, would show Democrats progressing toward a very good night, both in the state and nationally. If Democrat Gina Hinojosa beats Republican Greg Abbott in the Texas governor race, despite his massive spending advantage, that would represent an even more historic breakthrough for Democrats. Victories for either candidate, but especially Hinojosa, would constitute “a generational win” for Texas Democrats, says Bill Miller, a leading lobbyist who has run campaigns for candidates in both parties.
“The key down here is that environment is good for Democrats and the money is good for Republicans, and how that washes out will be: Who gets their vote out?” says Miller. “There are more Republicans than Democrats, and if Republicans do a better job, they will win a close election. If they don’t, they will lose a close election.”
Texas House races will also offer a revealing gauge, especially for measuring how much of Trump’s Latino breakthrough in 2024 he has squandered since. Reelection wins for Democrats Henry Cuellar in TX-28 and Vicente Gonzalez in TX-34 in South Texas seats Republicans redistricted to undercut the incumbents would show the party meeting expectations; if Tejano singing star Bobby Pulido beats Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in TX-15 (a seat Trump won by 18 points) and/or sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia holds TX-35 (an open seat Trump carried by almost 11 points), it would show Democrats overperforming among Hispanics. An upset win for Democrat Katy Padilla Stout over bomb-throwing Republican Brandon Herrera in the open TX-23 seat would capture a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels.
After moving sharply toward Trump and the GOP over the past decade, the middle of the country is once again back in the center of American politics.
High prices for gas and diesel; the disruptive impact of Trump’s tariffs on the farm economy; and the president’s loosening grip on the White working-class voters plentiful across these states have all allowed Democrats to dream of recovery in places where they have declined for years. As Skelley notes, all these factors give Democrats reason for optimism that the Midwest may swing toward them even more than other regions.
The region’s initial soundings will come in two states where all polls close at 7 p.m. If Democrat Zach Dembo captures a Republican open seat in KY-6, a seat Trump carried by 15 points, or J.D. Ford defeats Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in IN-5, where Trump won by nearly 17 points, either would put the party on track for a very good night.
The first comprehensive signal from the region will come in Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 p.m. After Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map, reelection victories for Democratic incumbents Greg Landsman in OH-1 and especially Marcy Kaptur in OH-9 would show the party on a solid path. So would a win for Democratic ironworker Brian Poindexter against embattled Republican Rep. Max Miller in OH-7, a seat Trump carried by 11 points.
Wins for Democrats in the key statewide races would mark bigger breakthroughs. A victory for Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown over GOP incumbent Jon Husted in the Ohio Senaterace would show Democrats recapturing at least some of the ground they have surrendered with blue-collar White voters in the Trump years. Although Democrats haven’t won an Ohio governor race since 2006, Amy Acton has emerged as a clear favorite over self-funding Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, especially after the searing bipartisan backlash over his recent ad featuring her estranged mother. “As long as turnout (for Democrats) doesn’t collapse, Brown’s on track, and she’s on track,” predicts Ohio-based Democratic consultant Jeff Rusnak.
More surprising would be Democratic upsets in either the OH-10 or OH-15 districts now held by GOP Reps. Mike Turner and Mike Carey, respectively. Trump won the former by eight points and the latter by 10. “The big tidal wave would be Turner and Carey,” says Rusnak.
The next big Midwestern signals will come from states where all polls close at 9 p.m. In Iowa, Democratic victories over Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks in IA-1 and Zach Nunn in IA-3, seats Trump won by eight and four points respectively, would show the party meeting expectations. So would a win in the Iowa governor race for Democrat Rob Sand, who has led in polls all year even though Democrats have not elected a governor there since 2006.
An upset win for Democrats in IA-2, the more reliably Republican seat being vacated by Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, would mark a bigger wave. So would a win for Democrat Josh Turek over Hinson in the heated Iowa Senate race; like Brown in Ohio, a Turek win would only be possible if Democrats recover at least some support among working-class Whites, including in rural areas hit hard by Trump’s tariffs and rising diesel costs.
Wisconsin presents a similar profile: A win for Democrat Rebecca Cooke over Republican Derrick Van Orden in the WI-3 House race would mark a good night for the party; a victory for Democrat Mitchell Berman over Republican Bryan Steil in WI-1, and for Democrat David Crowley in the open seat Wisconsin governor race, would signal something more.
In Michigan, a comfortable win for Democrat Jocelyn Benson in the Michigan governor race is the baseline for a good Democratic night. Flipping Republican-held House seats in MI-4 and MI-7 would also show Democrats staying on track for a good night; the 7th is a more favorable district for Democrats, but their nominee, progressive William Lawrence, is a weaker candidate than state Sen. Sean McCann in the 4th, notes David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
However these contests turn out, the verdict on Democrats’ performance will pivot on the bitter Michigan Senate race. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate bid in 2024, are locked in a close contest that recently has been dominated by Islamophobic remarks from Trump and other Republicans portraying El-Sayed, who is Muslim, as a “jihadist.”
Before this onslaught, an El-Sayed win that preserved this open Democratic seat might have only represented holding serve for his party. But if El-Sayed survives this firestorm, even amid conspicuous defections by some Jewish Democrats, it will be another indication the Trump undertow (his disapproval soared to 66% in the new CNN Michigan poll) is too strong for Republicans to overcome, even when other factors favor them.
That message would be reinforced even more powerfully if Democrat Adam Marshall beats Republican Roger Hamilton in the Kansas Senate race (the state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932); if independent Dan Osborn topples Republican Pete Ricketts in the Nebraska Senate race; or if independent Brian Bengs upsets GOP Sen. Mike Rounds in the South Dakota Senatecontest. Democratic wins in any of those races would propel the night squarely into tsunami territory.
Both Colorado and Arizona, where polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, present a clear progression of opportunity for Democrats.
A win in the CO-8 House race, where Republican Gabe Evans is trying to hold off former state Rep. Manny Rutinel, in a district north of Denver that Trump carried by less than two points, would track with a good Democratic performance. A win by Democratic Army veteran Jessica Killen over Republican Jeff Crank in CO-5, a district Trump won by nine points, would mark a very good night for the party. And if Democrats oust either Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd in CO-3 or, especially, Lauren Boebert in CO-4, a seat Trump won by more than 18 points, the flood will be mountain-high.
In Arizona, which has become a perennial swing state, a comfortable reelection for Democrat Katie Hobbs over hard-line Republican Andy Biggs, now seems the minimum for a good Democratic night. So does success in flipping AZ-1, the very well-educated and affluent seat in the northeast Phoenix suburbs, being vacated by Republican Rep. David Schweikert; Trump has taken a special interest in promoting the GOP nominee, Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker and longtime golfing buddy of the president, but he’s now the underdog against Democrat Amish Shah. More impressive will be if Democratic Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza defeats Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a Republican who has tried to position himself as a moderate, in AZ-6, a seat centered on the Tucson suburbs that Trump carried by less than a point.
In Alaska, where the last polls close at 1 a.m., Democratic former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, has established himself as such a strong favorite (even drawing an endorsement last week from Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski) in the Alaska governorrace, that a win would show Democrats on a solid path in the state.
More significant would be a victory in the Alaska Senate race for Democrat Mary Peltola, a former US representative, over Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, who has stressed his role in opening the state to greater oil and gas development, which most Alaskans view positively as an engine of prosperity. Alaska has elected only four Democratic senators since it entered the union in 1959 and just one since 1980. But Peltola, who would be the first Alaska Native elected to the Senate, has grounded herself in the state (her unique campaign slogan is “Fish, Family, and Freedom”) and has been boosted by pervasive discontent over soaring gas and diesel costs.
The Trump administration has preemptively sued to invalidate the results if Peltola wins because a candidate named Dan J. Sullivan made the final-four ballot in the state’s ranked choice voting system. Most legal observers give that litigation little chance of success. But the stunning New York Times reporting late last week showing that Democrats aligned with Peltola’s campaign worked to recruit the other Dan Sullivan into the race has prompted investigations from both Alaska’s Republican governor and the Justice Department. The controversy could hurt her electorally — even if many election law experts believe it is also unlikely to provide any legal basis for rejecting the outcome.
Elsewhere across the West, it will be a good result for Democrats if progressive Randy Villegas finally ousts Republican David Valadao, who has long survived in CA-22, a swing and heavily Hispanic district in California’s Central Valley. A reelection for center-right Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in WA-3, a Southwest Washington seat that Trump carried by three points, represents a similar level of difficulty for the party. Polls close at 11 p.m. in both states.
If Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek holds off Republican Christine Drazan in the Oregon governor race (where polls also close at 11 p.m.) despite drooping approval ratings and discontent over the economy and persistent homelessness in Portland, it will send a stronger signal that the backlash against Trump is virtually insurmountable for blue state Republicans. An upset for Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford over Republican Joe Lombardo in the Nevada governor race (where polls close at 10 p.m.) would likewise mark a stronger Democratic current. As would a win for Democratic smoke jumper Sam Forstag in MT-1, a seat Trump carried by nearly 12 points.
Democratic wins in two other House districts would mark an historic tide. One is AZ-2, a seat Trump won by 15 points, where Republican Rep. Eli Crane is facing former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. The other is NV-2, an open seat in northern Nevada that gave Trump a 14-point margin two years ago.
A turnout surge from die-hard Trump supporters, which pollsters have missed before, could still blunt the Democratic gains. But a good night for Republicans this week might be anything that stops short of historically bad.
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