福克斯新闻实力排名显示，中期选举前夕民主党在48个参议院席位中领先，共和党掌控47个席位
作者：雷米·努马 福克斯新闻
发布时间：北美东部时区2026年10月27日 上午9:00
特朗普、万斯为中期选举做最后冲刺，福克斯新闻实力排名随之调整
福克斯新闻主持人比尔· Hemmer解读最新一期实力排名，当时距离中期选举还有一周，唐纳德·特朗普总统和JD·万斯副总统正重点州开展竞选活动，其中5个参议院选区处于摇摆选区。
【全新内容】您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章了！
本届中期选举似乎存在两类选民。
第一类选民对唐纳德·特朗普总统感到不满，准备拒绝共和党。这一群体包括越来越多的独立选民、农村选民和西班牙裔选民，他们表示将投票给民主党。
这一趋势体现在最新一轮众议院民调中，包括上周民主党在通用选票中领先11个百分点的调查，以及福克斯最新的全国民调。
舍恩、库珀曼：民主党或借中期选举浪潮崛起，这些数字令共和党不寒而栗
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福克斯新闻实力排名众议院预测图（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
第二类选民对共和党持观望态度，但未必会把参议院拱手让给民主党。这些选民主要分布在中西部及其他少数地区。他们表示，本州的民主党或共和党候选人仅以1至2个百分点的优势领先。
这是从多数关键参议院选区的民调中得出的合理结论。
这两种情况为何能同时存在？换句话说，如果民主党在众议院的领先优势如此明显，参议院的局面难道不会也倾向于民主党吗？
两种情况确实同时成立，而众议院的大幅领先未必能转化为参议院的优势。这些选民属于同一选民群体，但看似彼此割裂，只因今年众议院和参议院的选区划分差异巨大。
民主党认为蓝色浪潮正在汇聚，以下3种力量可能会阻碍它
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福克斯新闻实力排名参议院预测图（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
特朗普总统支持率下滑，民主党在议题上的优势很可能帮助他们赢得众议院席位，且席位数量可能不少。
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这些优势也让民主党得以在多个共和党曾认为无法企及的参议院选区展开竞争，但仅停留在将这些选区变为摇摆选区的程度。
通往参议院多数席位的道路需要经过特朗普以11个百分点或更多优势获胜的几个州。民主党可以赢得这些竞选中的任何一个。如果共和党选民投票热情高涨且忠于本党，民主党要拿下多数席位的难度将极大。
正因如此，参议院竞选才是一场势均力敌的较量。选民可能会让民主党获得多数席位，且可能多出几个席位；也可能让共和党继续掌控参议院。
7天后我们就会知道结果。
民主党在多数关键议题上占据明显优势
在特朗普总统11年的政治生涯中，他几乎击退了所有对其权力的威胁。唯一的例外是新冠疫情，这是2020年选举中选民关注的首要议题，最终促成拜登就任总统。
这也是特朗普面临的为数不多的来自海外的威胁之一。
这一次，特朗普和共和党面临一个新的海外对手：伊朗。美国政府在二月份决定对伊朗发动美联合军事打击，这一决定给共和党蒙上了一层阴影。
选民准备权衡特朗普的经济政策，成本持续攀升
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福克斯新闻关于唐纳德·特朗普总统支持率的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
首先，这一决定影响了特朗普的支持率，而支持率将决定众多国会共和党人的命运，且自战争开始以来，特朗普的支持率已有所下滑。战前最后一次民调显示其支持率为44%，目前已降至36%。
即使油价高企或伊朗战争也无法阻止特朗普的支持者投票支持“让美国再次伟大”
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福克斯新闻关于投票首要议题的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这场战争也让民主党在首要议题上占据优势。在福克斯10月的民调中，伊朗问题影响了选民关注的四项议题，超过三分之二的选民表示关注：通胀（85%）、油价（83%）、政府领导力（79%）以及伊朗战争本身（75%）。
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福克斯新闻关于投票首要议题的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
多数选民表示更倾向于由民主党处理这些议题：在通胀问题上领先16个百分点，油价问题上领先12个百分点，领导力问题上领先11个百分点，外交政策问题上领先9个百分点。
共和党在“本土战场”颇具竞争力
尽管如此，选民并不认为参议院应该易主。
这与地理位置息息相关。2024年，特朗普在10个关键摇摆州中赢得了7个，其中6个州的胜幅达到两位数。这些州包括阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦、堪萨斯、俄亥俄、南卡罗来纳和得克萨斯。
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福克斯新闻关于摇摆州的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
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民主党无需赢得所有这些州就能掌控参议院，但如果不拿下其中至少两个州，就很难达到51个席位的目标。
前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗在俄亥俄州领先，而其他州的竞争十分激烈。投票率、任何一方的民调误差或两者兼而有之，都可能决定选举结果。
还有大量未决定的选民。在阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦和堪萨斯这三个近期开展高质量民调的州，平均有10%的选民表示尚未决定支持或反对主要候选人。
福克斯新闻关于红州的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
任何关于这些选民将如何投票的猜测都只是猜测。从以往结果中我们只能知道，整体选民倾向于保守，因此民主党要争取这些选民支持（或让他们留在家里）的难度更大。
得克萨斯州的未决定选民少得多，上周福克斯新闻民调显示该州的竞选结果为49%对49%，打成平手。
如果民主党只赢得两个特朗普获胜的摇摆州，他们还需要拿下另外三个选区，而在2024年，前副总统哈里斯在这些选区仅以个位数优势胜出：缅因州、明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州。
民主党在后两个州领先，缅因州的胜负难料。虽然民主党在总统选举中赢得该州，但如果苏珊·柯林斯参选，缅因州也可能被视为共和党州。
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福克斯新闻2026年最终实力排名显示，参议院有3个选区发生变动，众议院有19个选区发生变动。州长竞选也处于变动之中。
参议院：俄亥俄州转为倾向民主党，民主党在48个席位中占据优势
福克斯新闻关于参议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
根据此次预测，两党距多数席位均有3个席位的差距。民主党在48个席位中占据优势，共和党在47个席位中领先（由于副总统可打破平局，共和党将以50个席位掌控参议院）。
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福克斯新闻关于参议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
若民主党表现出色，该党将赢得大部分或全部摇摆选区，多数席位将增至53个。在这种情况下，其他竞争激烈的州也将成为焦点，包括两个被评为倾向共和党和两个极可能支持共和党的州（若民主党表现极佳）。
若共和党表现出色，该党将保住大部分已掌控的席位，最高可达52个席位。共和党也有机会拿下几个州，包括明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州。
本次预测中有三个州发生变动。
俄亥俄州
今年，布朗在福克斯新闻今年的三次民调中都占据领先，其中上周的民调显示他以52%对47%领先共和党现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特德5个百分点。
福克斯新闻关于参议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
俄亥俄州选民对布朗非常熟悉，曾三次选举他进入参议院。这使得赫斯特德很难通过“社会主义”和“觉醒政治”等话题开展竞选，而这些话题是共和党在其他地区视为最强的竞选武器。
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俄亥俄州从摇摆选区转为倾向民主党。
（“倾向民主党”意味着民主党候选人占据优势，但这场竞争依然十分激烈。我们在福克斯新闻官网定义了所有排名及其设定流程。）
南卡罗来纳州
今年南卡罗来纳州的参议院选举实际上是开放选区。参议员达琳·格雷厄姆在初选中获胜，但胜势微弱：52%对48%，且是在特朗普为她站台后才获胜的。
福克斯新闻关于参议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
格雷厄姆此前从未参加过大选，且她和共和党都面临着不利的议题环境。
共和党认为这场竞选竞争异常激烈。
南卡罗来纳州从极可能支持共和党转为倾向共和党。
密西西比州
密西西比州是共和党铁票仓，但特朗普选择在那里（而非其他保守州）为候选人站台，表明共和党认为这场竞选竞争激烈。
共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯面临民主党地区检察官斯科特·科洛姆的挑战，这场竞选中，蛋白质选择成为了关键议题。
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福克斯新闻关于参议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
密西西比州从铁票支持共和党转为极可能支持共和党。
众议院：民主党席位下限增加4个，至223个
民主党仍有望在今年11月夺回众议院席位，根据此次预测，他们预计将拿下至少223个席位。
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福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
若民主党表现出色，他们将拿下大部分摇摆选区，最终可能获得多达240个席位。
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福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
（若民主党表现极佳，该党还将拿下大部分倾向共和党的选区，席位最高可达252个。）
共和党占据195个席位。若共和党表现出色，这一总数将增至约212个。距多数席位还差6个席位，但足以给下一位民主党众议院议长带来难题，她需要平衡党内温和派和极左翼的诉求。
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福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
本周有19个选区转向民主党，均与上次众议院更新中概述的相同主题相关：全国和选区民调、顶端候选人的实力以及农村选民流失。
选举夜最早公布结果的选区将为众议院未来走向提供一些线索。请留意肯塔基州第6选区，该选区涵盖列克星敦和该州大片中部地区。上届总统选举中，特朗普以15个百分点的优势在此获胜。由于支持左翼的大学生选民和面临成本上升的农民的共同影响，今年这场竞争看起来十分激烈。该选区从倾向共和党转为摇摆选区。
福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
州长竞选：无论广告与否，俄亥俄州州长竞选转为倾向民主党
最后，俄亥俄州州长竞选也处于变动之中。上周，这场民主党候选人艾米·阿克顿与共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米之间的竞选成为政治领域的头条新闻，此前拉马斯瓦米发布了一则广告，其中阿克顿的母亲称女儿是骗子。
福克斯新闻关于州长竞选预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
阿克顿自12岁起就与母亲疏远，她说当时自己和哥哥离开了家庭，因为母亲的丈夫对她进行了性侵。阿克顿的哥哥随后在一则回应广告中讲述了他们的家族历史。
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福克斯新闻关于州长竞选预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
此次评级调整的主要原因并非对广告的回应（拉马斯瓦米和特朗普总统支持这则广告，而包括赫斯特德和州长迈克·德瓦ine在内的大多数人反对），而是因为拉马斯瓦米的竞选团队认为有必要发布这则广告。
虽然上周福克斯民调显示拉马斯瓦米仅以2个百分点落后于阿克顿，但自9月以来，其他高质量民调显示他平均落后7个百分点。
福克斯新闻关于州长竞选预测的实力排名（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这位商人、前总统候选人在其政治生涯中一直深陷支持率问题。这则广告不太可能帮助他改善形象。
俄亥俄州州长竞选从摇摆选区转为倾向民主党。
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点击此处下载福克斯新闻APP
福克斯新闻对2026年中期选举的特别报道将于下周二（11月3日）美国东部时间晚上6点开始，由布雷特·拜尔和玛莎·麦卡勒姆主持。届时将播出最新的选区判断和福克斯新闻决策中心对参众两院控制权的预测。
雷米·努马是政治顾问，也是福克斯新闻的撰稿人。您可以在X平台关注他：@remynuma。
Fox News Power Rankings: As Iran looms large, can the GOP keep the faithful?
Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats ahead in 48 Senate seats while Republicans hold 47 heading into midterms
By Rémy NumaFox News
Published October 27, 2026 9:00am EDT
Fox News Power Rankings shift as Trump, Vance make final midterm push
Fox News’ Bill Hemmer examines the latest Power Rankings with five Senate races in toss-up territory, as President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance campaign in key states one week before the midterm elections.
NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!
It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.
The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.
That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll.
SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: DEMOCRATS COULD BE RIDING A MIDTERM WAVE. THESE NUMBERS SHOULD TERRIFY THE GOP
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Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.
That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.
How could both things be true? In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, won’t the Senate fall too?
Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesn’t necessarily translate to the Senate. These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.
DEMOCRATS THINK A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING. HERE ARE 3 FORCES THAT COULD STOP IT
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Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The president’s declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House and possibly by many seats.
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Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.
The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races. If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.
That’s why the Senate is a toss-up. Voters could give Democrats a majority and maybe with several seats to spare. They could also let the Republicans keep control.
We’ll find out in seven days.
Democrats have strong advantages on most key issues
In his 11-year political career, President Trump has triumphed over almost all the threats to his power. The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the top issue for voters in the 2020 election and ushered in the Biden presidency.
It was also one of the few threats that Trump has faced from abroad.
This time, Trump and the Republicans face a new foreign opponent: Iran. The administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.
VOTERS PREPARE TO WEIGH-IN ON TRUMP’S ECONOMY AS COSTS CONTINUE TO SURGE
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Fox News Power Rankings on approval of President Donald Trump.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
First, it has impacted Trump’s approval rating, which will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans and has fallen since the war began. It was 44% in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36% now.
NOT EVEN SKY HIGH GAS PRICES OR THE IRAN WAR WILL STOP TRUMP SUPPORTERS VOTING MAGA
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Fox News Power Rankings on the top issues on the ballot.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The war has also given Democrats advantages on the top issues. In Fox’s October survey, Iran played a role in four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said they were concerned about: inflation (85%), gas prices (83%), government leadership (79%) and the war in Iran itself (75%).
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Fox News Power Rankings on top issues on the ballot.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Most voters said they preferred the Democrats to handle those issues: 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership and 9 points on foreign policy.
Republicans are competitive on home turf
Still, voters are not convinced that the Senate should change hands.
That comes down to the territory. Trump won seven of these 10 battleground states in 2024 and six of them by double digits. That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
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Fox News Power Rankings on battleground states.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
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Democrats don’t need to win all of those states to take the Senate, but it’s hard to see how they get to 51 seats without at least two of them.
While former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio, the other states are close. Turnout, a polling error in either direction or both could decide them.
There are also a lot of undecided votes. In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates.
Fox News Power Rankings on red states.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Any guess on how those voters will break at the ballot box is only a guess. All we know from prior results is that the overall electorate leans conservative, so the Democrats have the tougher assignment to bring them over to their side (or keep them at home).
There are far fewer undecided voters in Texas, where last week’s Fox News Poll showed a tied race at 49%-49%.
If Democrats only win two Trump-won battlegrounds, they’ll need to win three other races where former Vice President Harris delivered single-digit victories in 2024: Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Democrats are ahead in the latter two. Maine could go either way. While Democrats win its presidential races, it could just as easily be considered a Republican state when Susan Collins is on the ballot.
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The final Fox News Power Rankings for 2026 feature three shifts in the Senate and 19 in the House. A tight gubernatorial race is also on the move.
Senate: Democrats are favored in 48 seats as Ohio moves to Lean D
Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Both parties are three seats short of a majority in this forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 47 (they would control the Senate with 50 seats because the vice president breaks ties).
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
On a good night for Democrats, the party would win most or all the toss-ups, taking their majority up to 53 seats. In that scenario, other competitive states would also come into focus, including two rated Lean R, and on a great Democratic night, two more rated Likely R.
A good night for the Republicans would see them simply hold on to most of the states they already have, up to a ceiling of 52 seats. The party also has opportunities to flip a couple of states, including Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Three states are moving in this forecast.
Ohio
In Ohio, Brown has enjoyed a lead in three Fox News polls this year, including last week’s survey, which had him five points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted at 52%-47%.
Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Ohio voters are very familiar with Brown, having sent him to the Senate three times. That has made it hard for Husted to campaign on socialism and woke politics, themes that Republicans elsewhere see as their strongest cards to play.
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Ohio moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
(“Lean D” means the Democrat has an edge but it’s still a highly competitive race. We define every ranking and the process for setting them onFoxNews.com.)
South Carolina
South Carolina’s Senate race is effectively open this year. Senator Darline Graham won her primary, but it was close: 52%-48%, and only after Trump rallied with her.
Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Graham has never faced a general electorate before, and she is about to do that in a poor issues environment both for her and the GOP.
Republicans view this as an uncomfortably close race.
South Carolina moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Mississippi
Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but Trump’s decision to rally there over other deep red states is a sign that the party thinks it’s competitive.
GOP Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom in a race where protein choice has become a breakout issue.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Mississippi moves from Solid R to Likely R.
House: The floor for Democrats ticks up four seats to 223
Democrats are still likely to flip the House this November, and in this forecast, they’re predicted to take at least 223 seats.
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Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Since a good night for the Democrats would see them take most of the toss-up races, they could end up with as many as 240 seats.
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Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
(On a great Democratic night, the party would pick up most of the Lean R districts as well, taking them as high as 252 seats.)
Republicans have 195 seats in their columns. A good night for them would take that total up to around 212. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House Speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.
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Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Nineteen more races have shifted in the Democrats’ direction this week, all on the same themes outlined in the last House update: national and district polling, top-of-the-ticket strength and rural voter erosion.
The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House’s future. Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th district, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle. The district moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Governor: Ad or no ad, the Ohio governor’s race moves to Lean D
Finally, Ohio’s gubernatorial race is also on the move. The campaign between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy was the top story in politics last week after Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring Acton’s mother, who called her daughter a liar.
Fox News Power Rankings on the gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Acton has been estranged from her mother since age 12, when she says she and her brother left her family home because her mother’s husband was sexually abusing her. Acton’s brother now appears in a response ad discussing their family history.
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Fox News Power Rankings on the gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
This ratings change is less about the response to the ad (Ramaswamy and President Trump are supportive of the commercial; most others including Husted and Governor Mike DeWine are against it) than it is about the fact that the Ramaswamy campaign felt the need to run it.
While Ramaswamy sat only two points behind Acton in last week’s Fox poll, he’s an average of seven points behind in other high-quality polls since September.
Fox News Power Rankings on the gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The businessman and onetime presidential hopeful has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career. This ad is unlikely to help.
The Ohio governor’s race moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
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Fox News’ special coverage of the 2026 midterm elections begins at 6pm ET next Tuesday, Nov. 3, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Tune in for the latest race calls and projections for control of the House and Senate from the Fox News Decision Desk.
Rémy Numa is a political consultant and Fox News contributor. You can follow him on X: @remynuma.
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