2026-10-26T21:16:17.366Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
唐纳德·特朗普总统在上个月的共和党中期大会上启动大选造势时，向选民提出了一项引发巨大争议的提议：若能让共和党保住多数席位，每位美国成年人都将获得5000美元。
时隔一个半月，他的交易式条件不仅范围大幅扩大，还更具本地化针对性。
事实上，特朗普现已向举行关键参议院选举的约半数州的选民开出了非常具体的条件——只要他们投票支持共和党，就能获得这些好处。
这些条件有时会伪装成明显的玩笑，但越来越多时候并非如此。而且即便看似玩笑，考虑到特朗普的过往行事记录，这些条件也绝非空穴来风。
政治家向选民承诺获胜后将推进哪些议程本是常态，其中许多事项特朗普若有意为之，如今就能兑现。但他却以一种极具交易色彩的方式，将这些承诺作为拿捏选民的筹码。
以下是交易式承诺的演变过程：
9月16日：特朗普在北卡罗来纳州加斯托尼亚发表讲话时称，他将把该州的飓风灾害救济款与选民是否投票给共和党候选人迈克尔·惠特利竞选参议员挂钩。“听着，如果迈克尔输了，我就不会拨款，知道吗？”特朗普说，随后又声称自己“只是在开玩笑”。
即便他是在开玩笑，特朗普政府在红州的灾害救济援助显然一直更为大方，拨付速度也更快，而且该政府最近在法庭上承认，其拨款决定“纯粹基于受援助州的政治属性”。
10月3日：特朗普在俄亥俄州范达尔利亚发表讲话时表示，“作为总统，你对各州拥有很大的权力”。他称俄亥俄州的共和党参议员可以利用与特朗普的关系为该州争取资金，但同时又谈及民主党州长候选人艾米·阿克顿时称，“我大概不会帮她，她好像很恨我”。
10月17日：特朗普在肯塔基州高地高地发表讲话时称，“如果共和党胜出，国防部将投入1亿美元……用于振兴肯塔基州温彻斯特的一个大型制药厂”。他随后补充道，“但如果民主党当选，这笔钱就不会到位，因为他们无法做到这一点”。
10月19日和22日：特朗普在堪萨斯州帕克城和爱荷华州苏城的竞选集会上均表示，若共和党获胜，他将让E15燃料——即混合了最高15%乙醇的汽油——全年永久供应。“有（堪萨斯州共和党参议员）罗杰·马歇尔在参议院，我们将让E15燃料全年永久供应，”特朗普在帕克城的集会上这样说道，随后又夸张地补充道，“但如果（民主党人）亚当·汉密尔顿当选，我就不会这么做。就这样，我只为马歇尔这么做”。
10月20日：特朗普在北卡罗来纳州格林斯博罗发表讲话时称，“如果我们赢回众议院和参议院，我将指示司法部尽快解决”与勒热纳海军基地水污染相关的所有剩余合法诉求。他补充道：“所以，如果我们没赢，就没有这笔钱。如果我们赢了，你就能拿到这笔钱。”
10月24日：特朗普在佐治亚州佩里发表讲话时称，他不会接听民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫寻求为农民提供帮助及其他恩惠的电话。特朗普设想了一段对话：“告诉他我不接。我不接。”对话中另一方回应道：“但他需要为佐治亚州筹钱。”特朗普说：“我才不在乎他想要什么。我不接。”
10月24日：特朗普在社交媒体发帖中暗示，如果前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉当选，他将停止为阿拉斯加州提供数十亿美元资金。“我已为阿拉斯加州创下历史性的援助水平，”特朗普说道，随后又补充道，“民主党正试图窃取这个重要的共和党席位，如果得逞，我们为阿拉斯加州所做的一切都会戛然而止[原文如此]”。
无论这些言论是作为玩笑提出，还是可能被解读为针对立法行动——比如永久推行全年E15燃料——所有这些言论的核心意图都再明确不过。特朗普希望让美国民众将投票给共和党与他为他们提供所需福利关联起来。
不过，即便共和党在2026年大选后获胜，特朗普如今实现这些事项的权力，应该与大选后并无二致。（毕竟，共和党目前已经控制了众议院和参议院。）
而且，即便涉及飓风救济、勒热纳海军基地受害者多年来的赔偿问题等极其严肃的事项，特朗普也愿意提出这类交易式条件。
特朗普现在还向美国民众开出了更大金额的悬赏——最高达100万美元——只要他们举报欺诈并因此获得定罪。
但这种策略是否有助于赢得选民支持，目前尚不清楚。比如，民调显示特朗普的5000美元提案反响不佳。
上月路透社/益普索的一项民调显示，登记选民以66%对18%的比例认为特朗普的这项提议不妥。更近一期全国广播公司新闻的民调显示，不到六分之一的登记选民认为共和党胜出后他们真的能拿到这笔钱。还有46%的受访者表示，支持特朗普这一想法的候选人会让他们更不愿意投票给这个人，而非更愿意投票。
但这些民调并没有阻止特朗普提出更多交易式承诺。情况恰恰相反，在2026年大选的最后冲刺阶段，他的这种做法反而在加速。
Trump has made transactional promises in roughly half of states holding key Senate contests
2026-10-26T21:16:17.366Z / CNN
President Donald Trump kicked off his general election push at last month’s Republican midterm convention by making voters a highly controversial offer: Keep Republicans in the majority, and every US adult will get $5,000.
Fast forward a month and a half, and he’s gone quite a bit further — and more localized — with his quid pro quos.
In fact, Trump has now offered voters in about half of states holding key Senate contests very specific things if they vote for Republicans.
Sometimes they’re couched as apparent jokes. But increasingly, they’re not. And even the supposed jokes are difficult to dismiss given Trump’s track record.
While it’s normal for politicians to tell voters what agenda items they’ll pursue if they win and gain power in Congress, many of these are promises Trump could deliver now if he wanted to. But he’s instead holding them over voters’ heads in a strikingly transactional way.
Here’s the progression of quid pro quos.
September 16: Trump says in Gastonia, North Carolina, that he’ll tie the state’s hurricane disaster relief to voters electing Republican Michael Whatley to the Senate. “Now, if Michael loses, I’m not sending it. Okay?” Trump says, before claiming he’s “only kidding.”
Even if he was joking, the Trump administration has clearly been more generous and quicker with disaster aid in red states, and it recently admitted in court that it made grant decisions “based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state.”
October 3: Trump says in Vandalia, Ohio, that, “when you are president, you have a lot of power over states.” He says that Ohio’s GOP senators can their access to Trump to get money for their state, but adds of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton: “I’m not gonna help her, probably. She hates me, I guess.”
October 17: Trump says in Highland Heights, Kentucky, “If the Republicans win, the Department of War will be investing $100 million … to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky.” He then adds, “But if the Democrats win, it doesn’t, because they wouldn’t be able to do it.”
October 19 and 22: Trump tells rallies in both Park City, Kansas, and Sioux City, Iowa, that he’ll make E15 fuel — gasoline blended with up to 15% ethanol — available on a year-round basis permanently if Republicans win. “With (Kansas GOP Sen.) Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent,” Trump says in the former appearance, before saying exaggeratedly: “But if (Democrat) Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it. That’s it. I’m only doing it for” Marshall.
October 20: Trump says in Greenville, North Carolina, that “if we win the House and the Senate, I will be directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims” related to water contamination at Camp Lejeune “as soon as possible.” He adds: “So, if we don’t win, there’s no money. If we do win, you’re getting it.”
October 24: Trump says in Perry, Georgia, that he wouldn’t accept calls from Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff looking for help for farmers and other favors. Trump imagines a conversation in which he says, “Tell him I’m not in. I’m not in.” The imaginary other person responds, “But he needs money for Georgia.” Trump says, “I don’t give a damn what he wants. I’m not in.”
October 24: Trump in a social media post signals he will stop delivering billions of dollars for Alaska if Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola wins. “I have delivered for Alaska at Historic Levels,” Trump says, before adding: “The Democrats are trying to steal this important Republican Seat and, if that happens, everything we’ve done for Alaska will come to an immediate hault” [sic].
Whether any of these comments is couched as a joke or might be read to refer to legislative action — like permanent year-round E15 — the thrust of all of them is unmistakable. Trump wants Americans to associate voting Republican with him giving them things they want.
But he would seem to have just as much power to accomplish those things today as he would after the 2026 election, even if Republicans win. (The GOP, after all, already controls the House and Senate.)
And Trump has been willing to float these quid pro quos even when they involve deadly serious subjects like hurricane relief and compensation for victims who have suffered for years from Camp Lejeune.
Trump is also now offering Americans even larger sums of money — up to $1 million — if they report fraud that results in a conviction.
It’s also not even clear that this strategy is good politics. Polls suggest Trump’s $5,000 offer, for instance, has gone over poorly.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed registered voters said 66%-18% that Trump’s promise was inappropriate. A more recent NBC News poll showed fewer than 1 in 6 registered voters thought it was likely they would actually get the money if Republicans won. And they said 46%-21% that a candidate supporting Trump’s idea would make them less likely to vote for that person rather than more likely.
But those polls haven’t dissuaded Trump from offering more quid pro quos. If anything, it’s accelerating in the final stretch of the 2026 campaign.
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