2026-10-08T18:40:19.013Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/democrats-senate-majority-iowa
民主党拿下参议院多数席位的路径正在改善。事实上，近期民调显示，民主党在2024年唐纳德·特朗普总统以两位数优势拿下的三个州民调中领先：阿拉斯加、俄亥俄和得克萨斯。民主党至少需要拿下其中两州才能赢得多数席位。
但即便看起来他们有可能突破这一艰巨门槛，其他州的形势却愈发棘手。
艾奥瓦州——特朗普同样以两位数优势拿下该州——的民调结果比阿拉斯加、俄亥俄和得克萨斯的部分民调更为胶着，包括周四发布的最新CNN民调。
即便民主党看起来有望拿下不少深红州，他们仍难以巩固缅因州、密歇根州甚至可以算上新罕布什尔州的摇摆乃至蓝领地盘。（明尼苏达州也存在一些疑问，但当地数据有限。）
就在一年前，若有人说中期选举前一个月，民主党在俄亥俄和得克萨斯的民调表现优于缅因和密歇根，一定会被视为疯言疯语。但如今局势已然如此。
那么民调能告诉我们其中缘由吗？让我们深入探究一番。
问题的关键不在于民主党表现糟糕；而是尽管特朗普2024年在所有这些州都以相近优势获胜，但他们在阿拉斯加、俄亥俄和得克萨斯的民调支持率不如预期。
近期优质民调显示，民主党在阿拉斯加领先7个百分点，在部分民调中在得克萨斯领先6个百分点，在俄亥俄最多领先6至8个百分点。
但即便最新CNN民调显示民主党在俄亥俄领先6个百分点，CNN的艾奥瓦民调却呈现胶着状态：共和党籍联邦众议员阿什利·辛森支持率为45%，民主党籍州参议员乔希·图雷克为43%。其他民调同样显示这是一场势均力敌的较量。
那么差距为何如此之大？
艾奥瓦和俄亥俄的整体环境差异不大。两项CNN民调均显示，约四分之三的可能选民认为特朗普的政策抬高了生活成本，约七成选民认为汽油价格至少带来了一定程度的生活负担，55%至58%的选民认为关税对本州不利。
但艾奥瓦州选民似乎不太愿意抛弃特朗普和共和党。总统在该州的支持率（CNN和《纽约时报》-锡耶纳学院民调显示为41%-42%）并未像俄亥俄州那样低（36%-38%）。CNN民调还显示，艾奥瓦州53%的可能选民希望共和党掌控国会，而俄亥俄州52%的选民更倾向于民主党掌控国会。
图雷克的个人形象评分也略有下滑。福克斯新闻民调显示，这位艾奥瓦州民主党人的净形象评分从6月的+18（51%正面评价，33%负面评价）降至9月底的+8（48%-40%）。
此外，辛森似乎成功动员了她的选民基础。CNN民调中，66%支持她的选民表示，投票主要是为了支持辛森本人，而非反对对手；而在俄亥俄州共和党联邦参议员乔恩·赫斯特德的支持者中，仅有44%的人持同样看法。
缅因州
这个蓝领州或许是民主党眼下最头疼的问题。
近期《纽约时报》民调显示，特朗普的支持率水下超过30个百分点，但几乎所有优质参议院民调结果都处于误差范围内。
当该时报民调显示共和党联邦参议员苏珊·柯林斯支持率为49%，民主党前州参议院主席特洛伊·杰克逊为46%时，部分民主党人陷入恐慌。
他们面临的最大问题是选民并不看好杰克逊。《纽约时报》和马利斯特学院的民调均显示，他的形象评分处于水下状态（《纽约时报》民调中可能选民的正面评价为41%，负面评价为49%；马利斯特学院民调中登记选民为43%-47%）。
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻-舆观民调显示，仅有47%的民主党人和独立选民对杰克逊成为民主党提名候选人感到满意，相比之下有53%的人更希望是其他人参选。
《纽约时报》民调还显示，51%至35%的可能选民认为该州正朝着错误的方向发展，这一比例在该时报开展参议院选举民调的所有州中是最高的。
（这也能解释为何柯林斯在周二的辩论中花费大量时间攻击缅因州民主党领导人。）
民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德在《纽约时报》民调中以5个百分点领先可能选民，在马利斯特学院民调中以7个百分点领先登记选民。但包括福克斯新闻民调在内的其他民调则显示，这场比赛处于误差范围内，胜负难料。
显而易见，这场竞选的胶着状态至少反映出部分选民对埃尔赛义德存在疑虑——这位左翼候选人从一开始就令许多民主党人担心其提名资格。
埃尔赛义德在民调中的支持率 consistently 落后于民主党州长候选人、州务卿乔斯林·本森，且他的个人形象评分通常仅处于持平状态。
《纽约时报》民调显示，50%的可能选民认为埃尔赛义德是这场竞选中更为极端的候选人，而仅有36%的人认为共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯同样极端。福克斯民调显示，52%的选民担忧埃尔赛义德过于自由化——这一比例与54%担忧罗杰斯过于亲近特朗普的选民比例不相上下。
根据CNN近期的一项审查，所有主要参议院选举的民主党候选人中，埃尔赛义德获得的共和党跨党派支持率最低，仅为个位数百分点，而其他民主党候选人最多能获得两位数的共和党选民支持。
民主党联邦众议员克里斯·帕帕斯在近期多数优质民调中领先前共和党联邦参议员约翰·E·苏努努。他在《纽约时报》民调中领先5个百分点，在新罕布什尔大学民调中领先8个百分点。
但鉴于该州是卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年拿下的州，民主党人仍会希望双方差距没有这么小。
这场竞选相对胶着的部分原因在于，帕帕斯的个人形象仅算合格（《纽约时报》民调中43%正面评价，44%负面评价）。
另一个原因是共和党州长凯利·阿约特人气颇高，且已准备好在本次选举中寻求连任。她在《纽约时报》民调中领先11个百分点。
此外，苏努努的知名度也带来了优势。这不仅因为他出身新罕布什尔州著名的政治家族，他的兄弟克里斯·苏努努直到去年还是该州颇受欢迎的共和党州长。
甚至有猜测称，部分选民误以为约翰·E·苏努努就是前州长克里斯·苏努努，而这一认知误差对他有利。《库克政治报告》近期将此列为帮助约翰·E·苏努努的因素之一——他的竞选标语甚至没有加上自己的名字。《华盛顿邮报》近期也发现，一些新罕布什尔州居民误以为克里斯·苏努努才是参选参议院的候选人。
不过，如果认知误差确实是影响因素之一，那么随着选民被大量竞选广告淹没，开始更多关注实际参选名单，这一问题或可得到缓解。
The states that aren’t cooperating with Democrats’ Senate majority hopes
2026-10-08T18:40:19.013Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/democrats-senate-majority-iowa
Democrats’ path to the Senate majority is improving. In fact, recent polls have shown the party leading in three states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Ohio and Texas. Democrats need at least two of those to win the majority.
But even as it looks like they might clear that daunting threshold, other states are proving more difficult.
The polls in Iowa — which Trump also carried by double digits — have been closer than some surveys in Alaska, Ohio and Texas — including in new CNN polling released Thursday.
And even as Democrats look like they could win some pretty red states, they’re still struggling to lock down swing and even blue-leaning territory in Maine, Michigan and arguably New Hampshire. (There is also some question about Minnesota, but the data there is limited.)
The idea that, a month before the midterm election, Democrats would poll better in Ohio and Texas than in Maine and Michigan would’ve been called crazy a year ago. But that’s where we’re at.
So what do polls tell us about why that is? Let’s dig in.
The story here isn’t that Democrats are doing badly; it’s just that they’re not polling as well as they have in Alaska, Ohio and Texas — despite Trump having carried all of those states by similar margins in 2024.
Recent quality polls have Democrats winning Alaska by 7, Texas by 6 in a few polls, and Ohio by as much as 6 and 8 points.
But even as the new CNN polling showed a 6-point Democratic edge in Ohio, the CNN Iowa poll was neck-and-neck, with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45% and Democratic state Sen. Josh Turek at 43%. Other polls similarly show a pretty pure toss-up.
So why the difference?
The atmospherics don’t differ too much between Iowa and Ohio. In both states, the CNN polls show about three-quarters of likely voters said Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living, about 7 in 10 said gas prices have been at least a moderate hardship, and 55%-58% said tariffs have been bad for their states.
But Iowa appears somewhat less inclined to ditch Trump and the GOP. The president’s approval rating there (41%-42% in CNN and New York Times-Siena College polling) isn’t quite as low as in Ohio (36%-38%). And the CNN poll shows that 53% of likely voters in Iowa prefer GOP control of Congress, while 52% in Ohio prefer Democratic control.
Turek’s image numbers have also declined a bit. Fox News polling has shown the Iowa Democrat’s net image rating going from +18 in June (51% favorable to 33% unfavorable) to +8 in late September (48%-40%).
Also, Hinson appears to have done a good job rallying her base. While 66% of her voters in the CNN poll say their vote is mostly about voting for her rather than against her opponent, just 44% say the same of Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted.
Maine
This blue state might be Democrats’ biggest headache right now.
A recent New York Times poll showed Trump’s approval rating is more than 30 points underwater, but virtually every quality Senate poll is within the margin of error.
Some Democrats panicked when that Times poll showed GOP Sen. Susan Collins at 49% to Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson’s 46%.
The big problem for them is that voters just aren’t enamored of Jackson. His image was underwater in both Times (41% favorable to 49% unfavorable among likely voters) and Marist College (43%-47% among registered voters) polling.
And a CBS News-YouGov poll showed just 47% of Democrats and independents said they were glad he was the Democratic nominee, compared to 53% who preferred someone else.
The Times poll also showed likely voters said 51%-35% that the state was headed in the wrong direction. That was the worst of all the states where the Times has polled Senate races.
(And it would explain why Collins spent much of Tuesday’s debate attacking Maine’s Democratic leaders.)
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led by 5 points among likely voters in the Times poll and 7 points among registered voters in a Marist poll. But other polls like a Fox News survey show a margin-of-error race.
It’s pretty clear the closeness of the race reflects at least some voter uncertainty about El-Sayed, a left-wing candidate whom many Democrats worried about nominating in the first place.
El-Sayed lags the Democratic nominee for governor, Secretary of State Joceyln Benson, consistently in polling. And his image ratings are usually only about even.
The Times poll showed 50% of likely voters said El-Sayed was the more extreme candidate in the race, compared to 36% who said the same of Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. The Fox poll showed 52% of voters were concerned about El-Sayed being too liberal — about as many as the 54% who worried about Rogers being too close to Trump.
All of which helps explain why El-Sayed is getting the least crossover voters from Republicans of any Democratic nominee in a major Senate race, according to a recent CNN review. While other Democrats are getting as much as double-digit support from GOP voters, he’s in the low single digits, according to polling.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has a lead over former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu in most recent quality polling. He led by 5 points in a Times poll and 8 points in a University of New Hampshire poll.
But Democrats will wish it weren’t even that close, given this is a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
Part of the reason it’s somewhat close is that Pappas’ image is only OK (43% favorable to 44% unfavorable in the Times poll).
Another is that GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte is popular and primed for reelection at the top of the ticket. She led by 11 points in the Times poll.
And then there’s the name ID that comes with Sununu. It’s not just that he comes from a famous political family in New Hampshire; his brother Chris Sununu was a popular GOP governor until just last year.
There is even speculation that some people think John E. Sununu is the former governor, and that that’s helping him. The Cook Political Report recently cited that as a factor helping John E. Sununu, whose campaign signs don’t include his first name. And the Washington Post recently found that some New Hampshire residents thought Chris Sununu was the one running for Senate.
However, to the extent that confusion is a factor, it could be mitigated as voters are bombarded with more ads and start to pay more attention to who is actually on the ballot.
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