2026-09-30T16:25:35.544Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/30/politics/adam-kinzinger-pardon-kalshi-bet
两名知情人士告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN），联邦监管机构正在调查前众议员亚当·金辛格，因其在预测平台Kalshi上就自己获得前总统乔·拜登赦免一事进行交易。
拜登在其总统任期的最后几个小时内，于去年赦免了金辛格以及其他参与调查唐纳德·特朗普试图推翻2020年大选结果的众议院委员会成员。拜登辩称，这些预防性赦免是必要的，以保护这些议员免受即将上任的特朗普政府可能的报复。
像Kalshi和Polymarket这样的预测平台允许用户对几乎所有事物下注——包括体育、娱乐、选举和其他政治新闻。
消息人士称，作为共和党人及知名特朗普批评者的金辛格，在2024年末和2025年初在Kalshi的两个与赦免相关的市场进行了交易额不足1000美元的交易，赌自己会获得拜登的赦免。
他在接受CNN采访时承认进行了这些交易，但表示自己从未拥有任何有关赦免的内幕消息。进行交易时他已是平民，已离开国会且未竞选公职。金辛格目前是CNN的特约撰稿人。
一名知情人士透露，负责监管预测市场的联邦监管机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC），正在调查金辛格的交易。该消息人士称，职业执法官员在看到有关潜在内幕交易的媒体报道后，开始仔细审查Kalshi和Polymarket上的拜登赦免相关市场。
Politico此前曾报道过CFTC对金辛格的调查，这是已知的首起针对预测网站赦免市场的联邦公开调查。
CNN自去年12月起与Kalshi建立合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件，但CNN的编辑人员不允许使用预测市场。
CFTC和Kalshi均拒绝置评。
在接受CNN采访时，金辛格承认进行了这些交易，称这只是他就政治话题下注的“几十次”交易中的两次。他表示自己此前已查阅过Kalshi的规则，并认为自己的行为没有违反规则。他向CNN提供了截图，显示他总共下注669美元，最终获利823美元。
“赌自己是个愚蠢的下注行为，”金辛格说，“回头看，我在想，是啊，真希望当时没这么做。但当时我看到的所有情况都是，你有权对这件事下注。”
他还否认自己进行了内幕交易，主要理由是他称自己没有任何关于赦免的预先信息，也没有与拜登白宫讨论过潜在的赦免事宜。他表示自己尚未接到任何政府调查人员的联系。
“我从未，从来没有，和任何知晓内情的人谈论过赦免（或）我是否会被赦免，”金辛格说，“当然，白宫里没人或者任何知道内情的人都没有。”
另一名知情人士称，Kalshi在对“可疑”交易进行全面排查时也发现了金辛格的交易，并将其上报给了CFTC。
该消息人士表示，Kalshi曾试图联系金辛格，但他并未回复。对于小额交易且交易者愿意配合的情况，Kalshi通常会尝试在内部解决调查。金辛格告诉CNN，他从未收到过Kalshi的联系。
预测平台今年人气暴涨，目前每周的交易额已达数十亿美元。但随着它们的发展，要求加强监管的呼声也越来越高。
上个月，Kalshi因多名政治候选人违反公司内幕交易规则，下注自己的竞选活动而对其处以罚款。
CFTC最近还与前特朗普白宫提词器操作员达成和解，该操作员因在Kalshi上下注特朗普在演讲中会说什么而被指控“非法”交易。他们还与前众议员乔治·桑托斯就其关于是否会出席国情咨文的不当交易达成和解。
由两党组成的44个州的联盟已敦促CFTC监管预测平台。国会山的数十名议员也持相同态度，他们支持一项旨在加重内幕交易处罚的立法。
支持加强监管的人士中就包括金辛格本人。他在2025年11月的Substack帖子中写道，Kalshi和其他预测网站是一颗“腐败定时炸弹”，也是“对民主的威胁”，因为政客可以利用内幕知识牟利。
Federal regulator probing Trump critic Adam Kinzinger for betting on his own pardon
2026-09-30T16:25:35.544Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/30/politics/adam-kinzinger-pardon-kalshi-bet
Federal regulators are investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger for trading on the prediction platform Kalshi about a pardon he received from former President Joe Biden, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
Biden pardoned Kinzinger last year during the final hours of his presidency, along with other members of the House committee that investigated Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. The preemptive pardons were needed, Biden argued, to protect the lawmakers from possible retaliation by the incoming Trump administration.
Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let users wager on nearly everything – including sports, entertainment, elections and other political news.
Kinzinger, a Republican and prominent Trump critic, traded less than $1,000 on two pardon-related Kalshi markets in late 2024 and early 2025, sources said, and betted that he would get a pardon from Biden.
He acknowledged making the trades in an interview with CNN but said he never had any insider information about the pardons. He was a private citizen at the time of the trades – out of Congress and not running for office. Kinzinger is a CNN contributor.
A person familiar with the matter said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator that polices prediction markets, is looking into Kinzinger’s trades. Career enforcement officials started scrutinizing the Biden pardon markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket after seeing press reports about potential insider activity, the source said.
Politico previously reported the CFTC inquiry into Kinzinger, which is the first publicly known federal probe into pardon markets on prediction sites.
CNN has maintained a partnership with Kalshi since December and uses its data to cover major events, but CNN editorial employees aren’t permitted to use prediction markets.
The CFTC and Kalshi declined to comment.
In an interview with CNN, Kinzinger admitted to making the trades, saying they were two of a “few dozen” bets he placed about political topics. He said he had reviewed Kalshi’s rules beforehand and that he believed his actions did not violate the rules. He shared screenshots with CNN showing that he wagered a total of $669 and netted $823.
“It was a dumb bet, to bet on myself,” Kinzinger said. “Looking back, I’m like, yeah, I wish I’d have skipped it. But everything I saw at the time was like, you’re within your right to bet on this.”
He also denied that he engaged in insider trading, primarily because he says he did not have any advance knowledge of the pardons and did not discuss potential pardons with the Biden White House. He said he hasn’t heard from any government investigators.
“At no point, ever, had I had a conversation with anybody in the know about pardons (or) whether I’d get pardoned,” Kinzinger said. “Certainly, nobody in the White House or anybody that would know anything.”
Kalshi also uncovered Kinzinger’s trades during a broader look into “suspicious” activity and flagged them to the CFTC, another person familiar with the matter said.
The source said Kalshi tried to get in touch with Kinzinger, but he did not respond. It’s common for Kalshi to try to internally settle its probes when small amounts of money are involved and when the trader cooperates. Kinzinger told CNN he never heard from Kalshi.
Prediction platforms have exploded in popularity this year and now see billions of dollars in weekly trading volume. But as they’ve grown, so have calls for more regulation.
Last month, Kalshi fined several political candidates for betting on their own campaigns, violating the company’s insider-trading rules.
The CFTC also recently settled a case with the former Trump White House teleprompter operator for “unlawful” bets on Kalshi about what Trump would say in his speeches. And they settled with former Rep. George Santos for improper trades about whether he would attend the State of the Union.
A bipartisan coalition of 44 states have urged the CFTC to rein in prediction platforms. So have dozens of lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who are backing legislation that would stiffen penalties against insider trading.
Among those who want more regulation is Kinzinger himself. He wrote in a November 2025 Substack post that Kalshi and other prediction sites are a “corruption time bomb” and a “threat to democracy” because politicians can profit from insider knowledge.
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