2026年9月24日 / 美国东部时间下午3:45 / 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻
随着本周抵押贷款利率突破7%，达到近两年来的最高水平，购房者再次面临购买力紧缩难题。未来几周情况不太可能出现缓解，多位专家对CBS新闻表示，借贷成本可能还会继续走高。
Realtor.com高级经济学家杰克·克里梅尔对CBS新闻表示：“到今年年底或未来一两个月，利率上涨的可能性远大于下跌。”
房地美（Freddie Mac）周四发布的数据显示，30年期常规抵押贷款平均利率已升至7.03%，为2025年1月以来的最高水平。自2月底利率短暂跌破6%以来，抵押贷款利率已累计上涨超过1个百分点。
按当前平均利率计算，40万美元住房贷款的借款人每月需多支付276美元利息，这正是该利率自2月底以来上涨约1个百分点带来的额外成本。
美国抵押贷款银行协会（MBA）本周发布的另一组数据显示，30年期住房贷款利率更高，达到7.12%。
美国抵押贷款银行协会副总裁兼首席副经济学家乔尔·坎在邮件中表示：“高通胀、货币政策收紧的前景、可能更强劲的经济增长以及不断膨胀的联邦债务，共同推高了抵押贷款利率。”
抵押贷款利率通常跟随10年期美国国债收益率变动。近几个月来，由于伊朗战争推高能源成本并加剧通胀，10年期美债收益率大幅飙升。债券投资者为对冲风险要求更高收益率，同时还要应对冲突以及美国政府债务攀升带来的长期影响。
房地产数据平台Zillow的抵押贷款部门高级经济学家卡拉·吴指出，近期债券市场动荡加剧，10年期美债收益率周四达到5.1%，为近20年来的最高水平。
她在邮件中称：“这种债券市场波动会给抵押贷款利率带来实实在在的上行风险。”
利率还会上涨多少？
专家们对住房贷款利率走势看法不一，部分人预测未来几个月利率还会走高。不过Zillow预测，到今年年底抵押贷款利率可能降至6.7%，到2027年底降至6.3%，为购房者带来小幅缓解。
卡拉·吴表示：“债券市场的波动提醒我们，利率下行之路未必平坦。”
美国全国地产经纪商协会（NAR）首席经济学家劳伦斯·尹在邮件中对CBS新闻表示，抵押贷款利率的走向将取决于伊朗战争对通胀的影响。他说，如果达成协议结束战争，油价和抵押贷款利率可能会大幅下跌。
但他补充道，如果战争持续扰乱石油供应，可能会对利率产生更大影响。
8月通胀率按年率计算为3.4%，较战争爆发前上涨了1个百分点。居高不下的通胀促使美联储在本月初的会议上上调了基准利率。
据芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）数据，利率交易员认为美联储在10月下次会议上加息的概率为66%，今年年底前可能还会有一次加息。
克里梅尔表示，对额外加息的预期可能会给本已高企的住房市场带来更大压力。投资者通常会提前预判利率政策动向，而他们的预期会推高影响抵押贷款利率的债券收益率。
诚然，即使战争带来的通胀压力消退，其他因素仍可能让抵押贷款利率维持高位。
劳伦斯·尹称：“从长期来看，预算赤字压力以及人工智能和数据中心投资带动的经济增长，将阻止抵押贷款利率大幅回落。”
购房者可以省钱的渠道
专家指出，尽管当前借贷成本上升，购房者仍有一些有利因素可以利用。
夏季购房旺季过后，购房活动通常会放缓，这让购房者有更多房源可选，也有机会争取到更低的购房价格。
卡拉·吴说：“竞争减少意味着购房者拥有更多议价权，可以更有选择性地、更审慎地挑选合适的房源。”
房价已经显现出疲软迹象。例如，克里梅尔称，8月份市场上五分之一以上的房屋都出现了降价。
他说：“房价降价和每月预算结余的好处，可能比利率降低0.1到0.12个百分点带来的收益更大。”
艾米·皮奇编辑
美联社对本文亦有贡献。
Mortgage rates are back above 7%. How much higher could they climb?
September 24, 2026 / 3:45 PM EDT / CBS News
House hunters are facing a fresh affordability crunch as mortgage rates hit 7% this week, marking their highest level in almost two years. The coming weeks aren’t likely to offer any relief, with some experts telling CBS News that borrowing costs could continue to rise.
Rates are “far more likely to go up than down by the end of the year or in the next month or two,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, told CBS News.
Data from Freddie Mac released on Thursday shows that the average rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage has risen to 7.03%, the highest since January 2025. Mortgage rates have increased by more than a full percentage point since the end of February, when they briefly dipped below 6%.
The roughly 1 percentage-point increase in the rate since then translates into an additional $276 per month in cost for a borrower financing a $400,000 home loan at the current average rate.
Separate data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) this week puts the rate on a 30-year home loan even higher, at 7.12%
“Higher inflation, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, potentially stronger economic growth and ballooning federal debt have pushed up mortgage rates,” Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist for the MBA, said in an email.
Mortgage rates tend to track yields on the 10-year Treasury note, which have spiked in recent months as the war in Iran drives up energy costs and fuels inflation. Bond buyers are seeking higher yields to compensate for what they view as riskier investments as they grapple with the longer-term impact of the conflict and of rising U.S. government debt.
Bond market turbulence has increased in recent days, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.1% on Thursday, the highest level in roughly two decades, Zillow Home Loans senior economist Kara Ng noted.
“That kind of bond market move introduces real upside risk to mortgage rates,” she said in an email.
How much higher could rates go?
Experts are mixed on where home loans are headed, with some forecasting higher rates over the next few months. Yet Zillow predicts mortgage rates could dip to 6.7% by year’s end and 6.3% by the end of 2027, offering modest relief to buyers.
Volatility in the bond market is “a reminder that the path down is not guaranteed to be smooth,” Ng said.
The direction of mortgage rates will depend on the inflationary impact of the Iran war, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told CBS News in an email. If a deal is reached to end the war, oil prices and mortgage rates could tumble, he said.
But if the war continues to disrupt oil flows, it could have a greater impact on rates, he added.
Inflation in August rose at an annual rate of 3.4%, up one percentage point since the war started. Stubborn inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting earlier this month.
Another rate increase could be in store before the end of the year, with interest rate traders pricing in a 66% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in October, according to CME Group.
Expectations of additional rate hikes could add more pressure to an already expensive housing market. Investors often anticipate rate decisions, and their expectations can drive up the bond yields that influence mortgage rates, Krimmel said.
To be sure, even if inflationary pressures from the war subside, other factors could still keep mortgage rates elevated.
“Over the longer term, budget deficit pressures and economic growth driven by AI and data center investment will prevent mortgage rates from falling meaningfully,” Yun said.
Where buyers can save
Home buyers may still have some forces working in their favor, despite the current rise in borrowing costs, experts note.
Home-buying activity tends to slow after the peak summer season, giving house hunters access to more inventory and a chance to secure a lower price.
“Less competition means more negotiating power, and the ability to be more selective and deliberate about the right home,” Ng said.
Home prices are already showing signs of softening. In August, for example, more than one in five homes in the market saw their price cut, according to Krimmel.
“Price cuts and the gains on your monthly budget can be greater than the gains from what you might get on saving 10 or 12 points on your interest rate,” he said.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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