2026-09-18T11:00:29.430Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
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美联储正通过加息对抗侵蚀美国人钱包的通胀，但在11月大选临近之际，这一举措可能会让选民在其他方面感受到压力。
美联储设定的基准利率与抵押贷款、汽车贷款利率之间或许没有直接关联，但美联储的加息决定显然不会降低住房、购车或偿还信用卡债务的成本。对于已经面临创纪录柴油价格和化肥成本飙升的美国农民而言，加息只会让他们更难承担增加的利息支出——美国农业部本周因此预测今年农场收入将出现下滑。
加息的目的本就是给经济降温，而如果这导致裁员，选民恐怕不会乐见其成。
尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统反对此次加息，但无论其对伊朗发动的打击行动和关税政策是否催生了引发加息的通胀，任何经济影响最终都将由他承担。
特朗普长期以来一直对利率和选举颇有怨言。
他在第一任任期内曾抱怨加息，在2024年总统大选前又抱怨过降息。在第二任任期早期，特朗普曾公开扬言要解雇时任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，但最终并未续聘，转而提名了凯文·沃什。特朗普今年1月曾评价沃什是“为该职位量身定做”的人选。
不过，联邦公开市场委员会周三全票通过加息决议，这不仅让特朗普与美联储政策再次产生分歧，也凸显出沃什身处的现实：通胀和高成本仍是整个经济面临的难题，而非特朗普口中“通胀根本不存在”的虚假场景。
市场预计沃什领导的美联储今年还将再次加息。下一次加息机会在10月下旬，恰好赶在大选日之前。
在周三的新闻发布会上，沃什承认了美国人每天都在经历的现实。
“今年夏季的通胀数据并未表明，通胀的整体趋势有了实质性改善，”他表示，并指出通胀已经困扰美国五年之久。
上周在达拉斯举行的共和党全国代表大会演讲中，特朗普称“几乎所有商品”都在降价。
在美联储周三宣布加息后，特朗普并未提及沃什，而是描绘了一套属于自己的现实图景。他在社交媒体上表示，美国经济“蓬勃发展”，利率本应大幅下调。他还似乎重申，如果不降息，他将试图切断美国与世界其他地区的大部分贸易往来。
就连副总统JD·万斯似乎也在周三的播客采访中承认，事态并未完全按计划发展。
“再给我们一次机会，”当被问及11月大选前要向选民传递什么信息时，万斯说道。
莱斯大学贝克研究所公共金融中心主任约翰·W·戴蒙德表示，降息或许是美联储对抗通胀的最佳，也几乎是唯一可用工具，但这是一种钝器。
“这意味着加息可能会进一步拖累经济中的弱势板块，比如房地产行业，却几乎不会影响最强劲的领域，也就是对人工智能的持续投资，”他在为《对话》杂志撰写的专栏中写道。
特朗普对人工智能开发和数据中心的辩护，是另一个让他与众多选民产生分歧的议题。
特朗普和共和党曾利用民众对通胀的愤怒和对经济的担忧，在2024年选举中将民主党赶下台。
如今，他们必须面对这样一个事实：共和党上台两年以来，至少在选民眼中，并未解决这一问题。
根据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院最近的一项民调，民主党有明显优势夺回众议院多数席位。
不出所料，经济和通胀是该民调中登记选民提及的首要议题。对特朗普而言，麻烦在于他在这些议题上已经失去了选民的支持。
四分之三的登记选民认为美国经济仅处于一般或糟糕状态；73%的人不认可他在生活成本问题上的表现，62%的人不认可他总体上的经济治理能力。
众议院少数党领袖、纽约州民主党议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯在最近的新闻发布会上的发言，几乎就是照搬了这份《纽约时报》民调结果。他抨击特朗普承诺打造“黄金时代”，却带来了“腐朽时代”。
“经济发展方向不对，正在让普通美国人失望。汽油价格上涨、食品杂货价格上涨、利率上涨、住房成本上涨、健康保险保费上涨，”杰弗里斯说道。
这些经济数据在很大程度上解释了为什么民主党在原本看似共和党稳操胜券的参议院席位选举中颇具竞争力，尤其是在堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州等心脏地带州。堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿牧师和艾奥瓦州的乔希·图雷克等民主党候选人都做出了民粹主义承诺，将重点关注住房和能源价格。在艾奥瓦州，共和党候选人、众议员阿什利·辛森在广告中谈到了跨党派合作，这与特朗普的主张相去甚远。
特朗普两年前曾承诺降低成本，但他担任总统期间推行的政策可能并未缓解通胀。
► 对抗人工智能监管为科技巨头留出了扩张空间。人工智能企业的大规模借贷和支出，推高了芯片、电力和建筑材料价格，加剧了通胀。
► 他承诺并捍卫的关税推高了商品价格。但特朗普非但没有撤销关税，反而对加拿大发动了贸易战。
► 他对伊朗的军事打击导致燃油价格再次上涨。也门受伊朗支持的胡塞武装袭击了沙特阿拉伯的石油基础设施。柴油价格创下新纪录，重创农民、卡车运输行业，并最终波及消费者。
► 高价格预计将持续存在。国会预算办公室在本周发布的一份报告中称，这场战争的成本已达380亿美元，且仍在增加。更重要的是，对美国消费者而言，国会预算办公室预计这场战争将在明年推高通胀，这意味着燃油价格短期内不会下跌，与特朗普的保证背道而驰。
► 特朗普还希望向每位美国人发放5000美元支票。他的政府正在寻找无需国会批准即可实施该方案的途径。民众当然会欢迎这笔支票，但这也会进一步推高物价。
这就是“美国优先”政策的矛盾之处：特朗普希望降低利率，但他的总统任期建立在一系列理论上会推高成本的政策之上。
特朗普最终与自己第一任期任命的美联储主席鲍威尔反目，后来他认为鲍威尔“愚蠢”，因为鲍威尔没有按照特朗普的时间表降息，也没有屈服于特朗普的持续施压。
没人知道特朗普是否会继续向沃什施压要求降息。在美联储宣布加息后的一条愤怒社交媒体帖文中，特朗普称利率应降至1%，而非美联储明确设定的3.75%至4%区间。
特朗普表示，他在美联储会议前曾与沃什交谈。
“我跟凯文说，‘你不如直接投赞成票，因为结果不会有任何不同。’”
作为美联储主席，沃什在利率决策委员会中仅有一票表决权。但沃什并未向特朗普透露任何内部商议信息。
“我不会透露与总统的谈话内容，”他对记者说道。
沃什或许仍能获得特朗普的信任，因为外界普遍认为他内心支持降息。只是就目前而言，经济现实是物价仍在上涨。
CNN记者戴维·戈德曼对本文亦有贡献。
Trump’s claim that ‘almost every item’ is getting cheaper comes up against a damning reality
2026-09-18T11:00:29.430Z / CNN
A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.
The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to fight inflation that hurts Americans’ pocketbooks, but the move may also make voters feel the pinch in other ways heading into the November election.
There may not be a direct tie between the interest rates set by the Fed and mortgage and auto lending rates. But the Fed’s decision certainly won’t bring down the cost of housing, buying a car or paying off credit card debt. It won’t make it easier for American farmers already contending with record diesel prices and a surge in fertilizer costs to afford increased interest payments, all of which led the USDA this week to forecast a reduction in farm income for the year.
It is also designed to slow down the economy, something voters might not enjoy experiencing if it leads to jobs cuts.
While President Donald Trump opposed the rate hike, he’ll have to answer for any economic impact, even if his war on Iran and tariff policy helped create the inflation that led to it.
Trump has long groused about interest rates and elections.
He complained when rates were raised during his first term. And he complained when they were lowered before the 2024 presidential election. Earlier in his second term Trump publicly fantasized about firing the previous Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, but ultimately let his term as chairman expire and nominated Kevin Warsh, who Trump in January described as coming from “central casting” for the job.
But while the unanimous decision by the Federal Open Markets Committee Wednesday to raise rates will keep Trump at odds with Fed policy, it also shows that Warsh lives in the reality where inflation and higher costs continue to be a problem for the economy as a whole, and not in Trump’s reality, where inflation does not exist.
And Warsh’s Fed is expected to raise interest rates again this year. The next opportunity is in late October, just before Election Day.
At a press conference Wednesday, Warsh acknowledged the reality that Americans feel every day.
“This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he said, arguing inflation has been hurting the country for five years.
During his convention speech to Republicans last week in Dallas, Trump said “almost every item” is getting cheaper.
After the Fed’s decision Wednesday to raise rates, Trump, without mentioning Warsh, painted a picture of his own reality. He said on social media that rates should be much lower because the US economy is “BOOMING.” And he seemed to reiterate that if rates don’t come down, he’ll try to cut off a large portion of US trade with the rest of the world.
Even Vice President JD Vance seemed to acknowledge in a podcast interview Wednesday that things aren’t exactly going to plan.
“Give us another chance,” Vance said, when asked for his message to voters before November.
The rate cut may be the Fed’s best, and really only, tool available to combat inflation, but it’s a blunt instrument, according to John W. Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute at Rice University.
“That means the rate increase may further slow the weaker parts of the economy, such as housing, while barely affecting the strongest, namely the relentless investment in artificial intelligence,” he wrote for The Conversation.
Trump’s defense of AI development and data centers is another issue that puts him at odds with many voters.
Trump and Republicans harnessed anger over inflation and worries about the economy to send Democrats packing in the 2024 elections.
Now, they have to answer for the fact that the GOP’s two years in power haven’t solved the problem, at least not in the eyes of voters.
Democrats have a clear advantage to retake the House of Representatives, according to a recent New York Times / Siena poll.
Not surprisingly, the economy and inflation were among the top issues cited by registered voters in that poll. The problem for Trump is that he has lost their support on those issues.
Three-quarters of registered voters say the economy is only in fair or poor condition; 73% disapprove of his handling of cost-of-living issues, and 62% disapprove of his handling of the economy in general.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York, might as well have been reading from that New York Times poll when he opened a recent news conference arguing that Trump promised a “golden age,” but delivered a “rotten age.”
“The economy is not going in the right direction, it is failing everyday Americans. Gas prices are up, grocery prices are up, interest rates are up, housing costs are up, and health insurance premiums are up,” Jeffries said.
Those economy numbers have a lot to do with why Democrats feel competitive in Senate races that once seemed safe for Republicans, particularly in heartland states like Kansas and Iowa. Democratic candidates like Rev. Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Josh Turek in Iowa are making populist pledges to focus on housing and energy prices. In Iowa, the Republican candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson is talking in ads about working across the aisle, not a very Trump message.
Trump made promises to bring down costs two years ago, but the policies he pursued as president probably aren’t helping inflation.
► Fighting AI regulation has given Big Tech room to spend.Enormous borrowing and spending by AI companies has fueled significant inflation in chip prices, electricity and building supplies.
► Tariffs he promised and defended have made things more expensive.But rather than pull back, Trump is launching a trade war with Canada.
And the actions he has taken to address inflation have often angered his supporters. The Republicans running for Senate in Iowa (Hinson) and Kansas (Sen. Roger Marshall) both channeled ranchers when they expressed frustration with Trump’s decision to import more beef as a way to bring down meat prices.
► His war on Iran has fuel costs rising again.Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have attacked oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. The price of diesel is at a new record, hurting farmers, the trucking industry and ultimately consumers.
► High prices are expected to continue.The Congressional Budget Office set the cost of the war at $38 billion and counting in a report released this week. Perhaps more importantly to American consumers is that CBO expects the war to drive up inflation next year, a bet that fuel prices aren’t coming down any time soon, counter to Trump’s assurances.
► Trump also wants to cut$5,000 checksto every American. His administration is looking for ways to do it without Congress. People would appreciate the check, surely, but it would also drive up prices.
This is the dichotomy of “America First.” Trump wants lower rates. But his presidency is built around a list of policies that, at least on paper, drive up costs.
Trump ultimately turned on his first-term pick for Fed Chair, who he later viewed as a “jerk” for not lowering rates on Trump’s timeline or bowing to Trump’s constant pressure.
Who knows if Trump continues to pressure Warsh to lower rates. In an angry social media post after the Fed’s announcement, Trump said rates should be at 1% rather than targeted between 3.75% and 4% as the Fed made clear.
Trump said he did talk to Warsh before the Fed’s meeting.
“I talked to Kevin and I said, ‘you might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter.’”
Warsh, as chairman, is but one vote on the Fed board that set rates. But Warsh kept any counsel from Trump private.
“I’ve got nothing for you on a discussion with the president,” he told reporters.
Warsh may yet hold Trump’s trust because at heart he is thought to support rate cuts. It’s just that the economic reality, at the moment, is that prices are rising.
CNN’s David Goldman contributed to this report.
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