2026-09-13T18:00:29.070Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/voter-fraud-polling-trump
唐纳德·特朗普总统试图通过大幅限制邮寄选票提前干预2026年中期选举，这只是他对美国选举构成的潜在威胁的一部分。
另一部分则是他已被证实的事后宣称选举被窃取的倾向，这一行为直接引发了200年来针对美国国会大厦最严重的袭击事件。
最新民调显示，特朗普让美国很大一部分民众接受了这种说法。事实上，特朗普周五在社交媒体上发布了一段5年前的视频，视频中他告诉2021年1月6日的骚乱者回家，并再次重复他2020年大选获胜的虚假言论。
在他反复宣称存在大规模选民欺诈的背景下，民调显示这种舆论土壤可能比近年来更加肥沃，这一前景令人担忧。
昆尼皮亚克大学的民调显示，多数登记选民（51%）至少“有些担心”即将到来的选举会出现大规模选民欺诈。
这一比例比2022年中期选举前开展的同问题民调高出10个百分点。
如今表示“非常担心”的受访者比例（29%）也比四年前（18%）高出两位数。
而这一上升趋势毫无疑问主要来自共和党阵营。至少“有些担心”的受访者比例从59%升至74%，“非常担心”的比例则从24%升至40%。
因此，尽管2022年距离2020年大选后的混乱局面并不遥远——当时特朗普的大量基本盘支持者接受了他关于选举被窃取的毫无根据的说法，其中一些人还袭击了国会大厦，但如今右翼对选民欺诈的担忧程度比当时更高。
（民主党人中的担忧情绪也有小幅上升，但三分之二的民主党人表示并不太担心。）
这并非唯一表明大量选民已经准备好相信2026年选举可能存在重大选民欺诈问题的证据。
上周公布的美联社-NORC民调显示，认为自己“相当信任”政府对选举结果认证的美国人比例从2024年的40%降至如今的34%。
马里斯特学院3月为美国国家公共广播电台（NPR）和公共电视网（PBS）开展的民调发现，50%的美国人认为2026年选举中很可能存在选民欺诈。这一比例与2020年1月的52%相近，也就是国会山袭击事件发生的前一年。（不过认为“极有可能”的人数略有下降。）
共和党人中将选民欺诈列为美国选举面临的最大威胁的比例（57%）也高于六年前的47%。
路透社-益普索4月的民调则显示，相当多民众相信特朗普如今最热衷的一项选民欺诈论调：即无合法身份的移民在美国选举中大量投票的毫无根据说法。
民调显示，46%的美国人，包括82%的共和党人，认同美国选举中存在“大量”非公民非法投票的情况。
53%的多数受访者，包括83%的共和党人，至少“有些担心”邮寄选票或缺席选票存在欺诈行为。
在这两个问题上，仅有21%至26%的美国人坚定支持上述立场，但另有四分之一的民众至少倾向于认同这些说法。
这正是当前的危险所在：一小撮狂热分子真正信奉这一主张，就像2020年大选后的情况一样，而其他态度没那么强烈的人也会随波逐流。
如果说美国民主有什么好消息的话，那就是大量美国人似乎至少对特朗普的具体说法抱有一定程度的怀疑。
在特朗普7月发表的充满未经证实的外国选举干预和所谓掩盖真相言论的黄金时段演讲后，昆尼皮亚克的民调显示，登记选民以66%比24%的比例认为他没有提供足够证据证明其说法。
同样，本周的美联社民调显示，60%的美国人对特朗普提供2026年选举结果准确信息的信任度仅为“一点点”（16%）或“完全不信任”（44%）。仅有17%的人“相当信任”他的说法。
事实上，距离2020年大选越远，就连特朗普的选举否认派支持者也越来越多地承认，实际上并没有确凿证据证明选举被窃取。
如果特朗普如今的支持率仍然比2020年大选失利时更低——正如当前情况一样，或许会有更少的人愿意真正接受他关于又一场选举被窃取的说法。
但尽管特朗普在这方面屡战屡败，三项最新民调仍显示，半数或更多美国人至少在一定程度上认同2026年选举存在重大选民欺诈的说法。
在今年洛杉矶市长初选结果不符合他们的预期后，共和党整体也迅速接受了毫无根据的欺诈指控。
考虑到近期选举结果不符合特朗普预期的历史，这一切都相当不祥，值得我们密切关注。
Americans’ increased belief in voter fraud is a scary prospect in 2026
2026-09-13T18:00:29.070Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/voter-fraud-polling-trump
President Donald Trump messing with the 2026 midterms beforehand — as he’s trying to do by sharply restricting mail ballots — is only part of the potential threat he’s posing to US elections.
The other is his demonstrated tendency for claiming elections have been stolen after the fact, which resulted in the largest attack on the US Capitol in 200 years.
New polling suggests Trump has kept that soil fertilized with a large portion of the country. Indeed, the president on Friday posted on social media the 5-year-old video of him telling January 6, 2021, rioters to go home and repeating his false claim that he won in 2020.
And amid his repeated claims of widespread voter fraud, the polling suggests that soil might be even more fertile than its been in recent years, which is a scary prospect.
A Quinnipiac University poll shows a majority of registered voters (51%) are at least “somewhat concerned” that there will be widespread voter fraud in the upcoming election.
That’s actually 10 points higher than the same question in a poll conducted just before the 2022 midterm election.
The percentage today who say they are “very concerned” (29%) is also double-digits higher than it was four years ago (18%).
And the rise is overwhelmingly due to — no surprise — Republicans. The percentage who are at least “somewhat concerned” has risen from 59% to 74%, and the percentage who are “very concerned” has gone from 24% to 40%.
So even though 2022 was only a little removed from the fiasco after the 2020 election — in which large swaths of Trump’s base embraced his baseless claims of a stolen election, and some of them attacked the Capitol — concern about voter fraud is actually higher on the right today than it was back then.
(There has also been a small rise in concern among Democrats, but two-thirds of them say they are not that concerned.)
And this is not the only evidence that a large percentage of the electorate is primed to believe voter fraud could be a significant problem in 2026.
An AP-NORC poll released last week showed the percentage of Americans who trusted government certifications of election results at least “quite a bit” dropping from 40% in 2024 to 34% today.
A March poll conducted for NPR and PBS by Marist College found that 50% of Americans said voter fraud was likely in the 2026 elections. That’s similar to the 52% who said so in January 2020, a year before the Capitol attack. (There was a slight drop in those who called it “very likely,” though.)
Republicans were also more likely to rank voter fraud as the biggest threat to American elections (57%) than they were six years ago (47%).
And a Reuters-Ipsos poll in April showed a pretty substantial belief in what is arguably Trump’s biggest voter fraud hobbyhorse these days: the baseless claim that many undocumented immigrants are voting in US elections.
The poll showed 46% of Americans, including 82% of Republicans, agreed that US elections include a “large number” of illegal votes by noncitizens.
And a 53% majority, including 83% of Republicans, were at least “somewhat concerned” about fraudulent mail-in or absentee ballots.
On both questions, only between 21% and 26% of Americans strongly embraced those positions. But there was another quarter of the population that was at least inclined toward them.
And that’s the danger here: a small but passionate group of people truly embraces the cause, just like they did after the 2020 election, while others who might not feel as strongly go along for the ride.
If there’s good news for our democracy, it’s that large numbers of Americans appear to be approaching Trump’s specific claims with at least a modicum of skepticism.
After his July primetime address full of unproven claims about foreign election interference and a supposed coverup, Quinnipiac found that registered voters said 66%-24% that he had not provided sufficient evidence to prove his claims.
Similarly, the AP poll this week showed 60% of Americans trust Trump to provide accurate information about the outcome of the 2026 election “only a little” (16%) or “not at all” (44%). Just 17% trust him at least “quite a bit.”
Indeed, the further away we got from the 2020 election, the more that even Trump’s election-denying supporters acknowledged there wasn’t actually solid evidence that the election was stolen.
And if Trump remains even more unpopular than he was when he lost the 2020 campaign — as he is now — perhaps fewer people will be inclined to truly embrace his claims of another stolen election.
But despite Trump’s tortured history of barking up this tree, three new polls show half of Americans or more are at least a little on board with the concept of significant voter fraud in the 2026 election.
And the GOP writ large also quickly embraced baseless suggestions of fraud after this year’s Los Angeles mayoral primary didn’t go their way.
It’s all rather inauspicious, given the recent history of elections that don’t go Trump’s way. And it’s worth paying attention to.
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