2026年9月11日 / 美国东部时间下午1:40 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
一份高于预期的通胀报告大幅提升了美联储将于9月加息的可能性，这将是美联储自2023年以来首次加息。
美国劳工部数据显示，8月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.4%，与7月涨幅持平，但高于经济学家此前预测的3.3%。月度涨幅中有三分之一源于汽油价格，汽油价格同比已上涨27.4%。
对美联储来说更令人担忧的是，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，高于市场预期，且涨幅较上月的0.2%有所扩大。剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别后的核心通胀数据表明，随着燃油价格在经济中传导，通胀压力正从能源领域向更广范围扩散。
据CME美联储观察工具显示，CPI报告发布后，美联储在9月16日会议上加息的概率从周四的70%跃升至近90%。经济学家周五表示，此次通胀数据提升了美联储进一步上调借贷成本的可能性，以推动通胀回落至2%的目标水平。
安永经济咨询（EY-Parthenon）目前预测，美联储将在下周的会议上加息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至3.75%至4%。
“我们将此前的美联储政策预期从‘维持利率不变’调整为‘在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上加息25个基点’，”安永经济咨询首席经济学家格雷格·达科在周五的一份报告中写道。部分美联储官员可能会“以‘通胀放缓的速度未达预期’为由，支持加息”。
美联储将于美国东部时间9月16日周三下午2点公布利率决议。
后续还会有更多加息吗？
美联储上一次加息是在2023年7月，当时新冠疫情推动通胀升至数十年来最高水平，美联储通过加息试图抑制物价上涨。
9月加息可能并非终点，资本经济公司预测，美联储将在12月再次加息25个基点，并于2027年3月再度加息。
加息将提高消费者的借贷成本，使抵押贷款、信用卡和汽车贷款变得更加昂贵。但另一方面，储户将能通过存单和高收益储蓄账户获得更高的利息回报。
本周原油价格突破每桶100美元，柴油价格涨至每加仑6美元以上，而8月的通胀数据并未计入此次燃油价格的近期上涨。
“原油、汽油和柴油价格的新一轮上涨加剧了人们的担忧，即更高的能源价格可能会蔓延至其他商品和服务领域，并推高通胀预期，”全国经纪公司首席经济学家凯西·博斯特扬西克在周五的一封邮件中表示，“因此，我们现在预计美联储将在下周的政策会议上加息25个基点。”
存在分歧的美联储
负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会共有12名成员，其中少数成员已明确表示，如果物价压力没有显现出改善迹象，他们愿意支持加息。
在7月的上次会议上，美联储维持利率不变，但有三名委员投了反对票，支持加息。包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在内的部分美联储官员也已表明，如果通胀未能朝着2%的目标取得实质性进展，他们将支持9月加息。
美联储做出此次决议之际，正值伊朗局势引发的持续物价压力，该局势导致全球石油供应紧张，能源价格飙升。
目前通胀率较2月底中东冲突爆发前高出整整一个百分点。
国际原油基准布伦特原油周五的交易价格约为每桶105美元，而广泛应用于运输、建筑和农业行业的美国全国柴油平均价格本周已突破每加仑6美元。
俄乌冲突也对油价造成了拖累。乌克兰对俄罗斯能源基础设施发动的一系列无人机袭击损害了俄罗斯的炼油能力，引发了燃油短缺。
Fed rate hike in September is all but guaranteed after CPI report, economists say
September 11, 2026 / 1:40 PM EDT / CBS News
A hotter-than-expected inflation report has sharply raised the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September, which would mark its first rate hike since 2023.
The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, in line with July’s reading but higher than the 3.3% economists were forecasting. One-third of the monthly increase was due to gasoline prices, which have jumped 27.4% from a year ago, according to the Labor Department.
More concerning for the Fed, core prices rose 0.3% from July, higher than expected and an acceleration from the previous month’s 0.2% increase. The reading, which excludes the volatile gas and food categories, suggests inflationary pressures are broadening beyond energy as higher fuel prices ripple through the economy.
After the CPI report was released, the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed’s Sept. 16 meeting jumped to nearly 90%, up from 70% on Thursday, according to CME FedWatch. The inflation reading makes it more likely the Fed will raise borrowing costs as it works to bring inflation back toward its 2% target, economists said Friday.
EY-Parthenon now projects the central bank will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points at next week’s meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.
“We are changing our Fed call from a hold to a 25bps hike at the FOMC meeting next week,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Greg Daco wrote in a Friday note. Some Fed officials are likely to “argue in favor of a rate hike on the basis that the ‘speed’ of the disinflationary process is not satisfactory.”
The Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 16.
More rate hikes in store?
The last time the Fed hiked rates was in July 2023 in an effort to quell prices after the pandemic pushed inflation to its highest level in decades.
A September hike may not be the last, with Capital Economics projecting a second 0.25 percentage point increase in December followed by another in March 2027.
An interest rate hike would raise borrowing costs for consumers, making mortgages, credit cards and auto loans more expensive. On the flip side, it would provide a boost to savers through higher returns on their CDs and high-yield savings accounts.
The August inflation data was captured before the recent run-up in fuel prices, with oil surpassing $100 a barrel and diesel pushing above $6 a gallon this week.
“The renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices adds to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic said in an email Friday. “As such, we are now looking for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at next week’s policy meeting.”
A divided Fed
A handful of members of the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee, which sets rates, have already signaled they are willing to hike if price pressures don’t show signs of improvement.
At its last meeting in July, the Fed held rates steady, although three members dissented and voted to raise rates. Some Fed officials, including Fed governor Christopher Waller, have also indicated that they would support a rate hike in September if inflation does not make meaningful progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.
The Fed’s decision comes as it navigates ongoing price pressures from the Iran war, which has led to a global oil shortage and caused a spike in energy costs.
Inflation is now a full percentage point higher than it was before the conflict in the Middle East started at the end of February.
Brent crude, the international standard, was trading at around $105 a barrel on Friday, while the national average for diesel, widely used across the transportation, construction and agriculture industries, broke above $6 a gallon this week.
The Russia-Ukraine war is also weighing on oil prices. A barrage of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure has hampered Russia’s refining capabilities, sparking a fuel shortfall.
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