2026年9月8日 / 美国东部时间上午10:54 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
高盛警告称，波斯湾和红海地区袭击事件升级可能推高全球油价至每桶120美元以上，这将加剧美国人在伊朗战争期间已经面临的燃油成本飙升压力。
这家投资银行的预测意味着作为国际基准的布伦特原油价格将上涨约20%，目前该原油价格已接近每桶100美元。近几周来，随着中东冲突持续发酵，油价大幅攀升：美国军方于周六袭击了三艘伊朗油轮，胡塞武装也袭击了沙特阿拉伯的石油设施。
周二，布伦特原油价格短暂攀升至每桶99.46美元，随后回落至97.85美元。过去两个月里，布伦特原油价格已从每桶约72美元上涨，原因是中东地区战事升级，令恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航的协议希望落空。这条战略水道通常承担着全球五分之一的石油运输量。
1000亿美元成本冲击
根据布朗大学的一项追踪数据，自2月28日伊朗战争爆发至9月8日期间，美国消费者在燃油上的额外支出已达1000亿美元。其中汽油价格上涨贡献了约550亿美元，剩余450亿美元来自柴油价格上涨。
柴油广泛应用于货运、建筑、农业和铁路行业，美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，其在劳动节当天曾达到每加仑5.90美元的历史峰值。
油价上涨不仅直接通过加油站挤压家庭预算，还通过推高食品和其他零售商品的运输成本间接增加民众负担。目前通胀水平仍居高不下，经济学家预测将于周五发布的下一份消费者物价指数报告将显示，8月通胀率同比上涨3.3%——远高于美联储设定的2%年度通胀目标。
“每年这个时候，随着需求下降，加上我们很快将改用冬季汽油配方，大多数美国人应该会看到汽油价格下跌，但近期我们却看到油价更多出现上涨——尤其是柴油这种支撑美国经济的燃料，这种情况可能还会持续下去，”GasBuddy石油分析师帕特里克·德哈恩在9月7日的社交媒体帖子中说道。
美国政府将于周四发布8月份的批发通胀报告——生产者物价指数，经济学家预计该指数将从7月的4.7%加速至5.4%。
高盛的基本情景预测
高盛的预测基于中东地区敌对行动升级的假设。该投行的基本情景预测认为，到今年年底布伦特原油价格将回落至每桶85美元，美国基准原油西德克萨斯中质油的结算价将约为每桶80美元。这些预测较该投资公司此前的预期上调了每桶5美元。
高盛分析师在9月7日的研究报告中写道：“尽管假设航运中断将持续，但此次价格上调幅度并不大，原因有二：一是发达国家的商业燃料库存几乎没有下降，二是中东地区的石油运输应该会缓慢恢复。”
特朗普政府预计，冲突结束后油价将回落至战前水平。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，能源供应冲击“即将结束”。
“另一方面，我们实际上可能看到油价跌至每桶40或50美元，因为届时将有大量新增石油供应进入市场，”贝森特说道。
高盛表示，其最佳情景预测认为，到2027年布伦特原油价格将处于每桶60美元左右的区间，但前提是波斯湾地区的石油产量较战前水平每日增加100万桶。分析师补充称，他们认为油价上涨的可能性大于下跌，并补充道：“总体而言，我们的价格预测风险仍明显偏向上行，尤其是在短期内。”
高盛称，市场正越来越多地为长期冲突做准备。他们补充道，目前期权市场预计到2027年3月布伦特原油价格仍将维持在每桶100美元以上的概率为25%，而一个月前这一概率仅为6%。
编辑：阿兰·谢特
美联社为本报道提供了支持
Oil prices could hit $120, analysis finds, as Americans absorb $100 billion fuel hit
September 8, 2026 / 10:54 AM EDT / CBS News
Goldman Sachs is warning that heightened attacks in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea could push global oil prices above $120 a barrel, which would add to the surging fuel costs Americans have faced during the Iran war.
The investment bank’s forecast implies a roughly 20% increase in the cost of Brent crude, the international benchmark, which is trading at nearly $100 a barrel. Oil prices have spiked in recent weeks as the Middle East conflict drags on, with U.S. military forces striking three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday and the Houthi rebels attacking Saudi oil facilities.
On Tuesday, the price of Brent briefly climbed to $99.46 a barrel before dipping to $97.85. Over the past two months, Brent has climbed from roughly $72 a barrel as increased fighting in the Middle East erodes hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil flows.
$100 billion hit
American consumers spent an additional $100 billion on fuel between the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28 and Sept. 8, according to a tracker from Brown University. Higher gasoline prices accounted for about $55 billion of that amount, while diesel accounted for the remaining $45 billion.
Diesel, which is widely used in the trucking, construction, agriculture and rail sectors, reached a record $5.90 a gallon on Labor Day, AAA data shows.
The increase is squeezing household budgets directly at the pump and indirectly by raising transportation costs for groceries and other retail goods. Inflation remains elevated, with economists forecasting that the next Consumer Price Index report, set to be released on Friday, will show inflation in August rose by 3.3% on an annual basis — well above the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target.
“This is the time of year that most Americans see gas prices going down as demand falls and we soon change to winter gasoline, but as of late, we’ve been seeing a lot more ups — especially for diesel — the fuel that drives the U.S. economy, and that may continue,” GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan said in a Sept. 7 social media post.
On Thursday, the U.S. government will also release its August report for wholesale inflation, the Producer Price Index, which economists expect will show an acceleration to 5.4% from 4.7% in July.
Goldman’s base case
Goldman’s forecast is based on an increase in hostilities in the Middle East. The bank’s base case calls for Brent to drop to $85 a barrel by year’s end, with West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, settling at about $80 a barrel. Those estimates represent an increase of $5 per barrel from the investment firm’s previous forecast.
“The price upgrade is modest despite the assumption that shipping disruptions continue for two reasons,” which are that commercial fuel inventories in developed countries have barely declined, and that oil shipments from the Middle East should slowly recover, Goldman analysts wrote in the Sept. 7 research report.
The Trump administration expects oil prices to drop below their pre-war levels when the conflict ends. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Sunday that the energy supply shock “is going to end.”
“On the other side of this, we actually could see oil prices at $40 or $50 a barrel because there’s so much supply coming on,” Bessent said.
Goldman said that its best-case scenario places Brent in the $60-per-barrel range in 2027, but only if oil production in the Persian Gulf increases by 1 million barrels a day above its pre-war levels. The analysts added that they see a higher likelihood that oil prices will rise rather than fall, adding, “Risks to our price forecast remain significantly tilted to the upside on net, especially near-term.”
Markets are increasingly bracing for a prolonged conflict, Goldman said. Options now imply a 25% probability that Brent will remain above $100 in March 2027, up from a 6% probability a month ago, they added.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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