2026年9月4日 / 美国东部时间下午4:35 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：玛丽·坎宁安
今年以来，抵押贷款利率持续走高，让购房者倍感困惑。经济学家表示，这一趋势可能还会持续，部分专家预测利率将回升至7%以上。
“我们实际上已经接近该水平了，”穆迪 Analytics 首席经济学家马克·赞迪在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示，“而且利率很容易就会突破这一关口。”
根据房地美（Freddie Mac）的数据，本周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率升至6.71%，为13个月来的最高水平，较2月底的不足6%有所上涨。上次抵押贷款利率达到7%还是在2025年1月。
抵押贷款利率为何上涨？
专家表示，抵押贷款利率上涨的主要原因在于债券市场动荡。能源价格上涨以及美国政府债务规模膨胀引发了市场对通胀的担忧，进而引发了全球债券抛售潮，推高了抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡的借贷成本。
抵押贷款利率与10年期美国国债收益率密切相关，过去六个月内，该收益率已从4.08%跃升至4.77%。这是因为投资者要求获得更高的回报，以补偿他们认为长期债券存在的更高风险。这些更高的债券收益率给抵押贷款利率带来了上行压力。
追踪美联储利率变动概率的CME美联储观察工具显示，由于通胀仍远高于美联储2%的年度目标，交易员们目前认为，美联储很可能在本月晚些时候上调基准利率，这将是2023年7月以来的首次加息。
下周将公布关键经济数据，美国劳工部将发布8月份消费者价格指数（CPI）。
“当前债券市场形势非常脆弱——不仅美国如此，全球皆是如此，”赞迪说道，他补充道，由于债券投资者情绪紧张，利率可能会“进一步上涨，推动抵押贷款利率突破7%”。
他还补充道，房地产市场“将一直处于低迷状态，直到利率回落，而这可能还需要一段时间”。
个人理财网站NerdWallet的贷款专家凯特·伍德表示，一些借款人可能已经面临7%的抵押贷款利率。她在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示，她看到的 lender 报价中，约有一半已经超过了这一阈值。
利率会维持高位更久吗？
“就目前借款人的情况而言，如果他们一直在向贷款机构索要报价，他们可能已经有一段时间看到7%左右的利率了，”伍德说道。
房产网站Realtor.com的高级经济学家杰克·克里梅尔认为，抵押贷款成本可能会在一段时间内维持高位。
“我不知道我们是否会达到7%，但我们预计，利率上涨的速度会快于下跌的速度，”他说道。
尽管更高的抵押贷款利率会大幅增加购房成本，但伍德表示，这也可能带来机遇。
“从利息支出的角度来看，这对你不利，但从房价的角度来看，这实际上可能对你有利，因为市场竞争会大幅减少，”她说道，并指出低利率会吸引潜在买家重返市场。
阿兰·谢特编辑
Are mortgage rates heading back above 7%? Here’s what experts think.
September 4, 2026 / 4:35 PM EDT / CBS News
By Mary Cunningham
Mortgage rates have confounded house hunters this year by steadily ticking higher. That trend is likely to continue, according to economists, with some predicting rates will climb back above 7%.
“We’re effectively there,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CBS News. “And rates could easily go over.”
The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose this week to 6.71%, according to Freddie Mac, the highest in 13 months and up from below 6% in late February. Rates last reached the 7% mark in January 2025.
Why are mortgage rates rising?
Experts say the main reason mortgage rates are rising is because of turmoil in the bond market. Heightened inflation concerns due to rising energy prices and swelling U.S. government debt have sparked a global bond sell-off, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.
Mortgage rates closely track the 10-year Treasury yield, which has jumped from 4.08% to 4.77% over the last six months. That’s because investors are demanding higher returns to compensate for what they see as elevated risk associated with long-duration bonds. Those higher bond yields are putting upward pressure on mortgage rates.
With inflation still stuck well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target, traders now think the central bank is likely to hike its benchmark rate later this month for the first time since July 2023, according to CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of rate moves.
A key piece of data will come next week, when the Labor Department releases its Consumer Price Index data for August.
“It’s a very fragile time in the bond market — not just in the U.S. but globally,” Zandi said, adding that with bond investors on edge, rates could easily “rise further and push mortgage rates above 7%.”
The housing market is “going to remain under a glacier until rates come back in, which could be a while,” he added.
Some borrowers may already be facing 7% mortgage rates, said Kate Wood, a lending expert at NerdWallet. Roughly half of the sample quotes from lenders she’s seen are already north of that threshold, she told CBS News.
Higher for longer?
“In terms of what borrowers are seeing right now, if they’re out there getting quotes from lenders, [they’ve] probably been seeing sevens for a little while now,” she said.
Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, thinks mortgage costs are likely to remain elevated for a while.
“I don’t know if we’ll get to 7%, but we bet that things are going to go up sooner than they’re going to go down,” he said.
Although higher mortgage rates can greatly increase the cost of buying a home, Wood said it could also present an opportunity.
“It’s not helping you money-wise with the interest rate, but it might actually be helping you money-wise on the home price because there is going to be substantially less competition,” she said, noting that lower rates would invite buyers to come off the sidelines.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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