2026-09-02 / 路透社
9月2日(路透社)——人们对美国财政前景的担忧日益加剧。长期国债收益率升至2007年以来的最高水平,而美国国债规模已突破40万亿美元。
这并非华盛顿首次面临严峻的融资挑战。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示,美国可以通过经济增长摆脱债务困境。但历史经验表明,当财政部无法依赖常规的投资者结构、融资工具和市场环境时,美国政府就会创造出新的筹资方式。
以下是华盛顿曾应对过的六大融资挑战及其解决之道。
创造新的投资者群体
美国内战迫使华盛顿以前所未有的规模举债。联邦债务从1860年的约6500万美元升至1865年的约27亿美元,在此期间年均增幅近乎翻倍。相比之下,摩根士丹利数据显示,自1946年以来,美国公共债务的年均复合增长率为6.6%。
为消化新增国债发行,华盛顿通过立法创建了全新的投资者类别。《国家银行法》要求联邦特许银行以美国国债作为其货币发行的担保品。
金融家杰·库克也拓展了融资渠道,他通过银行、次级代理商、广告宣传和爱国号召在全国范围内销售国债。库克发行的6%“五年可赎回、二十年到期”债券,五年后可赎回,20年到期,利息以黄金支付;他推出的三年期“7-30”票据利率为7.30%,每投资50美元每年可获3.65美元收益,宣传时称“每天只需一分钱”。这些宣传活动成功将联邦债务打造成了大众零售投资产品。
求助华尔街
到1895年2月,经济衰退、黄金外流以及对美国转向银本位的担忧,已将财政部的黄金储备压低至4130万美元,远低于其政治层面至关重要的1亿美元基准线。公开债券销售仅带来了短暂的缓解。
由于当时没有中央银行,总统格罗弗·克利夫兰邀请了两位私人金融家J.P.摩根和奥古斯特·贝蒙特二世牵头组建银团,该银团同意提供超过6500万美元的黄金,其中大部分来自欧洲,并协助阻止进一步的黄金外流。作为回报,银团获得了约6200万美元的30年期、4%收益率的美国国债。
这笔交易稳定了黄金储备,但也让摩根和贝蒙特成为华尔街左右公共政策的象征,加剧了当时已经愈演愈烈的民粹主义反抗情绪。
动员储户,锁定收益率
为第二次世界大战融资需要同时实现低成本举债和抑制民用开支以遏制通货膨胀。因此华盛顿推出了战争公债。到1943年6月,通过自愿薪资扣除计划,约2700万美国人定期购买战争公债。到二战结束时,战争公债为约一半的战时债务提供了融资。
美联储通过将货币政策从属于财政部融资需求来强化这一体系。从1942年4月开始,美联储将国库券利率固定在0.375%,并通过公开市场操作 effectively capped long-term Treasury yields at 2.5%,将长期国债收益率有效控制在2.5%以下。这压低了政府借贷成本,但也加剧了通胀压力。
战时管控措施解除后,此前被压制的价格压力爆发,引发了战后严重的通货膨胀,使得利率挂钩机制难以为继。这一机制最终在1951年3月的《财政部-美联储协议》中被废除。
第二次世界大战
实施“扭转操作”
到20世纪60年代初,外国持有的美元债权增速超过了美国的黄金储备,威胁到了美元与黄金兑换的可信度。华盛顿希望在不阻碍国内经济增长的前提下遏制资本外流。
“扭转操作”旨在同时实现两大目标:美联储出售短期国库券并买入长期国债,通过提高短期利率来支撑美元汇率,同时压低长期利率以促进国内投资。财政部还通过向外国央行发售以外国货币计价的“鲁萨债券”来强化这一策略,这类债券不受美元贬值影响。
“扭转操作”在2011年至2012年期间被重启,以助力2007年至2009年金融危机后的经济复苏。
让市场决定价格
直到20世纪70年代初,财政部仍按照预先设定的期限发行票据和债券。但20世纪60年代末不断攀升的通胀和利率波动,使得这种固定价格体系风险大增,财政部也容易出现向投资者支付过高成本或无法匹配市场需求的问题。
为让市场决定价格,财政部于1970年开始拍卖附息债券,最初先确定票面利率,由投资者竞价购买债券价格。到1973年年中,拍卖机制已取代了原有的固定价格方法,用于票据和债券的发行。1974年,财政部针对部分附息证券推出了收益率招标机制,让拍卖结果同时决定债券价格和票面利率。
这一改革将价格发现功能交给了投资者,为如今的美国国债市场奠定了基础。
捍卫美元
1978年,美元再次面临贬值压力,促使卡特政府发起了前所未有的强力保卫行动,其中包括发售以外国货币计价的美国政府债务。
1978年11月1日,卡特与西德、日本和瑞士公布了一项协调一致的支持计划,集结了相当于高达300亿美元的外汇资源用于市场干预。
该方案包括扩大互换额度、美国在国际货币基金组织的储备头寸提款、出售特别提款权以及举借外债。此次行动的核心是“卡特债券”,以德国马克和瑞士法郎计价,在德国和瑞士市场发售,所筹得的外汇可用于买入美元以支撑美国货币汇率。
1977-1978年
凯伦·布雷特尔报道,科林·巴尔和尼克·齐明斯基编辑
The history of financing America, in six crisis episodes
2026-09-02 / Reuters
Sept 2 (Reuters) – Concerns over America’s fiscal outlook are mounting. Long-dated Treasury yields are at their highest levels since 2007, while the national debt has surpassed $40 trillion.
It is not the first time Washington has faced an imposing financing challenge. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. can grow out of the debt. But history suggests that when the Treasury cannot rely on the usual mix of investors, instruments and market conditions, it has also created new methods to raise funds.
Here are six financing challenges Washington tackled and how it overcame them.
CREATE NEW BUYERS
The Civil War forced Washington to borrow at an unprecedented scale. Federal debt rose from about $65 million in 1860 to roughly $2.7 billion in 1865, approximately doubling annually over that span. By comparison, U.S. public debt has compounded at a 6.6% annual rate since 1946, according to Morgan Stanley.
To absorb the new issuance, Washington wrote rules creating a new class of buyers. The National Banking Acts required federally chartered banks to back their currency with U.S. bonds.
Financier Jay Cooke found buyers too, selling debt nationwide through banks, sub-agents, advertising and patriotic appeals. Cooke’s 6% “five-twenties” were callable after five years and due in 20, with interest paid in gold; his three-year “7-30” notes paid 7.30%, yielding $3.65 a year and marketed as a penny a day for a $50 investment. The campaigns helped turn federal debt into a mass retail product.
CALL IN WALL STREET
By February 1895, recession, gold exports and fears of a shift to silver had driven the Treasury’s gold reserve down to $41.3 million, far below its politically vital $100 million benchmark. Public bond sales had bought only temporary relief.
With no central bank, President Grover Cleveland enlisted two private financiers, J.P. Morgan and August Belmont Jr., to lead a syndicate that agreed to supply more than $65 million in gold, much of it from Europe, and help stop further withdrawals. In return, the syndicate received about $62 million in 30-year, 4% Treasury bonds.
The deal stabilized the reserve but made Morgan and Belmont symbols of Wall Street’s sway over public policy, energizing an already growing populist revolt.
ENLIST SAVERS, PEG YIELDS
Financing World War II required both cheap borrowing and the restraint of civilian spending to stem inflation. So Washington turned to war bonds. Through voluntary payroll plans, about 27 million Americans were regularly buying them by June 1943. By the war’s end, war bonds had financed roughly half of the wartime debt.
The Fed reinforced this system by subordinating monetary policy to Treasury financing. Beginning in April 1942, it pegged Treasury-bill rates at 0.375% and effectively capped long-term Treasury yields at 2.5% through open-market purchases. This kept government borrowing costs low but added to inflationary pressure.
Once wartime controls were lifted, the price pressures they had been suppressing broke loose, fueling a sharp postwar inflation that made the peg impossible to sustain. It finally gave way with the Treasury–Fed Accord of March 1951.
World War II
DO THE TWIST
By the early 1960s, foreign dollar claims were outpacing U.S. gold reserves, threatening confidence in the dollar’s convertibility into gold. Washington wanted to stem capital outflows without choking domestic growth.
Operation Twist aimed for both: the Fed sold short-term bills and bought long-term Treasuries, raising short rates to support the dollar while holding down long rates for investment. Treasury reinforced the strategy with foreign-currency “Roosa bonds,” sold to foreign central banks and insulated from dollar devaluation.
Operation Twist was revived in 2011 to 2012 to help boost the economic recovery after the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis.
LET THE MARKET SET THE PRICE
Until the early 1970s, Treasury sold notes and bonds at terms it set in advance. But rising inflation and interest-rate volatility in the late 1960s made this fixed-price system risky, and left the Treasury vulnerable to overpaying investors or missing market demand.
To let the market set the price, Treasury began auctioning coupon-bearing debt in 1970, initially setting the coupon while investors bid on price. By mid-1973, auctions had replaced the older fixed-price methods for notes and bonds. In 1974, Treasury introduced yield-based auctions for some coupon securities, allowing auction results to determine both the price and coupon rate.
This reform shifted price discovery to investors, laying the foundation for today’s Treasury market.
DEFENDING THE DOLLAR
The dollar came under renewed pressure in 1978, prompting the Carter administration to mount an unusually forceful defense, including the sale of U.S. government debt denominated in foreign currencies.
On November 1, 1978, Carter unveiled a coordinated support program with West Germany, Japan and Switzerland, assembling the equivalent of up to $30 billion in foreign-currency resources for intervention.
The package included expanded swap lines, a U.S. reserve-tranche drawing at the IMF, sales of Special Drawing Rights and foreign-currency borrowing. Central to the effort were “Carter bonds,” denominated in Deutsche marks and Swiss francs and sold in German and Swiss markets, which raised foreign cash that could be used to buy dollars to help support the U.S. currency.
1977-78
Reporting by Karen Brettell, editing by Colin Barr and Nick Zieminski
发表回复