2026-09-02 12:00 AM ET / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
亚伦·布莱克 分析
8月27日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫椭圆形办公室签署行政令，将安大略湖更名为“美国湖”。
埃文·武奇/路透社
在2026年中期选举临近之际，唐纳德·特朗普总统又给共和党同僚们添了一桩麻烦事。
他对加拿大发动的新一轮贸易战，以及随之而来的将安大略湖更名为“美国湖”的举措，是其一系列不受欢迎行动中的最新案例。
事实上，最新民调显示，这两项举措比特朗普此前的关税政策和更名行动更不得人心。
近日开展的路透社-益普索民调是首个针对特朗普与加拿大新一轮冲突的权威调查。
调查显示，63%的美国人反对总统将安大略湖更名为“美国湖”的行政令，仅有14%的人支持，其余受访者尚未表态。
这一超过4:1的悬殊反对比例，比特朗普去年将墨西哥湾更名为“美国湾”时的情况更甚。当时民调显示超七成美国人反对该举措，但支持率平均是此次的两倍左右。
相关报道 8月27日，加拿大国旗飘扬在加拿大安大略省多伦多市安大略湖沿岸。科尔·伯斯顿/法新社/盖蒂图片社 美国对华贸易战策略意在“调戏”加拿大 阅读时长：5分钟
这项新调查还显示，强烈反对者（52%）与强烈支持者（7%）的比例约为7:1。
就连特朗普所在的共和党人也反对更名，反对比例为43%，支持比例为33%。
特朗普更名安大略湖的举动，源于他与加拿大之间日益紧张的贸易争端（尽管安大略湖的命名早于加拿大这个省份）。
而这场贸易争端在公众舆论中同样不受待见。
新民调显示，近3:1的美国人反对特朗普对加拿大加征新关税，支持比例仅为20%，反对比例为57%。
长期以来，特朗普的关税政策民调表现就不佳，尤其是在过去18个月通胀高企、就业市场停滞的背景下。但此次民调结果是迄今为止最差的一次。
去年12月的路透社民调显示，美国人总体反对特朗普的关税政策，反对比例为53%，支持比例为23%。而特朗普2025年初首次宣布对加拿大商品加征关税时，美国人反对比例为59%，支持比例为36%。
仅有9%的人强烈支持新关税政策，43%的人强烈反对。共和党人也只是勉强支持，支持比例为44%，反对比例为33%。
不止于此：
- 尽管特朗普将争端升级归咎于加拿大，但认为美国应为这场争端承担更多责任的美国人（46%）是认为加拿大应负责的人数的近4倍（12%）。
- 认为关税将主要损害个人财务状况的受访者（40%）是认为关税将有助于个人财务状况的受访者（4%）的10倍。
- 68%的美国人表示，他们更希望美国在谈判中采取强硬态度之外的路线，“即便这意味着美国无法获得大部分想要的成果”。
换句话说，美国人几乎没有与加拿大发生冲突的意愿。近半数共和党人都支持这种温和、妥协的谈判方式。
这也是所有调查结果背后的共同主线。几乎没人认同特朗普所推行的政策，强力支持率往往仅为个位数，即便在其党内支持也不温不火。但他仍决定推进这些举措。
2026年中期选举之路现已开启
- 每周，亚伦·布莱克都会深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选举、候选人和趋势，拨开政治杂音。订阅《20/26愿景》周刊，聚焦今年的中期选举。
这两项举措是否会在即将到来的选举中产生影响，以及影响程度如何，尚待观察。
一些共和党人担忧，对加拿大加征关税可能会严重影响他们保住参议院席位的努力，因为许多竞争最激烈的参议院席位恰好位于与加拿大接壤的州：阿拉斯加、缅因州、密歇根州和俄亥俄州。
但这场与加拿大的冲突可能会更广泛地损害特朗普的支持率——这会进一步凸显他并未将精力放在降低物价上，反而可能继续推高物价（比如对伊朗动武）。
这或许就是为什么此次关税政策和更名行动比此前类似举措更不得人心的原因。
试想一下，2025年之前，一位总统会在白宫为一项仅获得14%美国人支持的举措举办活动——而特朗普就为“美国湖”更名一事这么做了。这几乎是不可想象的。
但在特朗普的第二任期内，这不过是常规操作而已。
Americans hate both ‘Lake America’ and Trump’s trade war with Canada
2026-09-02 12:00 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
President Donald Trump signs an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” in the Oval Office of the White House on August 27.
Evan Vucci/Reuters
President Donald Trump has dropped another clunker in the laps of his fellow Republicans in the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections.
His new trade war with Canada and his related move to change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America” are the latest in a series of unpopular actions.
In fact, new polling suggests they’re even more unpopular than Trump’s previous tariffs and efforts to rename things.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted in recent days is the first quality survey to test Trump’s renewed clash with Canada.
It shows Americans oppose the president’s executive order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” 63% to 14%, with the rest undecided.
That more than 4-to-1 margin is more lopsided than when Trump moved to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” last year. Back then, polls showed more than 7 in 10 Americans opposed it. But support was about twice as high, on average.
Related article A Canadian flag flies along the waterfront of Lake Ontario, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, on August 27. Cole Burston/AFP/Getty Images The US trade war strategy is to troll Canada 5 min read
The new survey also shows strong opponents (52%) outnumber strong supporters (7%) about 7-to-1.
And even Trump’s fellow Republicans oppose renaming Lake Ontario, 43%-33%.
Trump’s move to rename the lake stems from growing tensions over his trade dispute with Canada (even though Lake Ontario was named long before the Canadian province).
And that trade dispute fares little better in public opinion.
The new poll shows Americans oppose Trump’s new tariffs on Canada nearly 3-to-1, 57%-20%.
Trump’s tariffs have long polled poorly, especially as inflation and the jobs market have proved stagnant over the past 18 months. But this is among the worst findings to date.
Reuters polling in December showed Americans opposed Trump’s tariffs overall, 53%-23%. And when Trump initially announced tariffs on Canadian goods in early 2025, Americans opposed them 59%-36%.
Just 9% strongly support the new tariffs, while 43% strongly oppose them. And Republicans lean only modestly in favor of them, 44%-33%.
And that’s not all:
- Despite Trump blaming Canada for the escalation, significantly more Americans say the United States is more responsible for the dispute (46%) than say Canada is (12%).
- Ten times as many people expect the tariffs to mostly hurt their personal financial situation (40%) rather than help it (4%).
- Americans say 68%-25% that they prefer the US not to take a hard line in negotiations, “even if it means it doesn’t get most of what it wants.”
In other words, there’s very little appetite for a clash with Canada. Even nearly half of Republicans support the softer, accommodating approach.
And that’s the common thread running through just about all of these findings. Almost nobody is asking for what Trump is selling, with strong support often in the single digits and lukewarm even in his own party. But he’s decided to press forward.
The road to the 2026 midterms starts now
- Each week, Aaron Blake cuts through the political noise with sharp analysis of the races, candidates and trends that could decide control of Congress. Sign up for 20/26 Vision, a weekly newsletter focusing on this year’s midterms.
Whether and how much it will matter in the upcoming election is to be determined.
Some Republicans have fretted that the Canada tariffs could disproportionately hurt their efforts to hold the Senate, given many of the most competitive races happen to be in states that border Canada: Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio.
But the Canada clash could also hurt Trump more broadly — by reinforcing how he’s focused on things besides lowering prices, and might continue doing things that raise them (like the Iran war).
Which might be why these tariffs and his renaming effort appear even more unpopular than previous similar efforts.
Just imagine before 2025 a president holding an event at the White House — which Trump did for “Lake America” — for a move that 14% of Americans support. It’s virtually unthinkable.
But in Trump’s second term, it’s par for the course.
发表回复