2026-08-27T16:45:13.955Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/27/politics/trump-midterm-loss-republicans
唐纳德·特朗普总统向来无法坦然接受选举失败。他常常搬出所谓大规模选民欺诈的虚假说辞为失败开脱。
但在2026年中期选举来临之际，他似乎已经准备好另一个怪罪对象和替罪羊：他的共和党同僚。
近几周来，特朗普多次暗示，如果国会共和党人在11月的选举中遭遇惨败，责任完全在他们自己身上——绝对不会是他。
当然，这一说法荒谬至极。特朗普的支持率在历史上就处于低位，即便在其所在政党内部也疏远了不少选民，这显然损害了共和党在中期选举中的胜算。国会共和党人本可以更好地与特朗普的争议性言论划清界限，更坚定地反对他的出格行为，但毋庸置疑，特朗普理应承担最多的责任。
尽管如此，倘若共和党真的失去参众两院任一院的控制权，特朗普将责任归咎于共和党自身，这将在一个格外敏感的时刻引发极为棘手的党内冲突。届时，共和党刚在选举中遭受重创，或许正考虑摆脱特朗普时代，探索新的发展道路。
周三，特朗普转发了一条来自其忠实支持者的旧帖，该帖警告共和党正“梦游般走向一场毫无防备的中期选举危机”，这番举动引发了舆论关注。
该帖子将责任完全归咎于共和党，称其未能通过立法支持特朗普的执政议程。
“国会共和党人如果不能拿出切实成果，终将发现不满情绪会带来恶果，”这位名为马特·范斯沃尔的支持者在特朗普转发的原帖中写道。
随后，特朗普又发布了另一条帖子，长篇大论地罗列了自己所谓的政绩。之后他还发布了一张宣称伊朗战争“任务已完成”的图片。
不难理解特朗普的言下之意：我已经做成了所有这些事，而我的政党却没有给予足够的协助。
周四，当被问及特朗普是否在撇清与国会共和党人的关系时，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特回应道：“总统全心全意致力于帮助全美共和党人保住多数席位。”
但本月早些时候，特朗普曾以更直白的方式表达了这一观点。
在接受《Punchbowl News》采访时，他甚至（虚假地）声称民众只会对其他共和党人感到愤怒。
“问题是，民众会去投票吗？说实话，很多人都对共和党非常愤怒，”特朗普说道。他补充道：“他们愤怒的对象是共和党，而非我。”
（事实上，在CNN的综合民调中，63%的美国人不认可特朗普的表现。在大多数权威民调中，仅有不到五分之一的美国人“非常”认可他。）
今年夏天早些时候，特朗普就似乎为这番说辞埋下了伏笔。当时他敦促参议院共和党人废除阻挠议事规则，并通过他的“拯救美国法案”选举改革法案。
他反复声称，通过该法案意味着民主党将无法再赢得选举，而未能通过则会让共和党付出惨重代价。
“我们之所以会输掉中期选举，只会是因为我们自己允许失败——如果我们表现得愚蠢、无知且不明智的话，”他7月3日在拉什莫尔山说道。
当月晚些时候，他又表示：“如果他们不尽快落实，对共和党来说将是一场灾难。”
7月29日，在谈到中期选举时他补充道：“如果我们得不到共和党全体议员的支持，民众应该审视一下那些共和党人。”
今年7月，特朗普还多次将矛头指向参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩，暗示他可能会将废除阻挠议事规则失败的责任推给图恩作为替罪羊。
“记住，愚蠢终将招致失败与毁灭！”他在一条社交媒体发文中如此写道。
近日，特朗普还告诉选民“假设”今年秋季他本人也在参选名单上，并据此投票。他还试图将中期选举塑造成一场围绕他本人的对决，包括将于下月举办的以特朗普为核心的中期选举大会——此举令共和党人忧心忡忡。据《大西洋月刊》报道，其超级政治行动委员会的广告中也大量使用了他本人的形象。
这暴露了共和党面临的一个切实问题：当特朗普本人不参选时，其支持者的投票率往往会大幅下降。加之总统的支持率低迷，共和党人承认几乎无法争取到摇摆选民。消息人士告诉CNN，共和党人的最佳策略是动员“让美国再次伟大”阵营的忠实选民投票。
但特朗普也将这场选举塑造为民众喜爱他本人、却厌恶其他共和党人的局面。
如果11月的选举结果对共和党不利，不难想象他会搬出这套说辞。
届时，舆论很快就会转而讨论特朗普作为总统的跛脚鸭状态还将持续两年——尤其是如果共和党同时失去参众两院控制权的话。到那时，他需要为自己并未遭受不可挽回的政治重创、此次选举并非对其总统任期的大规模不信任投票进行辩解。
但如果他真的将责任归咎于自己的政党，可能会在不合时宜的时刻重创共和党。试想一下，共和党刚在选举中伤痕累累，特朗普却将所有责任都推到共和党身上，雪上加霜。
或许共和党人会选择隐忍——就像他们对特朗普此前诸多挑衅行为置之不理一样。但在特朗普给他们带来如此多麻烦之后，部分人可能难以接受这一点。有些人甚至可能会认为，这正是摆脱这位任期受限的总统的契机。
真到了那个地步，共和党人或许更希望特朗普继续谎称存在选民欺诈。
Trump has already found someone to blame if Republicans lose the midterms
2026-08-27T16:45:13.955Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/27/politics/trump-midterm-loss-republicans
President Donald Trump has never taken kindly to losing elections. He’s often tried to explain it away by citing bogus claims of mass voter fraud.
But ahead of the 2026 midterm election, he appears to be lining up another culprit and scapegoat: his fellow Republicans.
Repeatedly in recent weeks, Trump has suggested that if congressional Republicans lose big in November, they will have themselves to blame — and certainly not him.
This is ridiculous, of course. Trump is historically unpopular and appears to have alienated many voters even in his own party in ways that clearly harm the GOP’s midterm hopes. Congressional Republicans could certainly have insulated themselves better from Trump’s problems and stood up more to his excesses, but he would clearly shoulder the lion’s share of the blame.
Regardless, though, Trump blaming the GOP for its own losses — if they do indeed lose control of either chamber — would set up a very interesting intraparty clash at a particularly sensitive time. It would come as it’s licking its wounds from a bad election and perhaps considering a new path forward from the Trump era.
The president turned heads Wednesday by re-sharing a month-old post from a loyal supporter who warned that Republicans were “sleepwalking toward a midterm reckoning they don’t see coming.”
The post laid the blame squarely at Republicans’ feet for failing to deliver legislation to support Trump’s agenda.
“If Republicans in Congress don’t start producing tangible results, they’re going to discover that frustration has consequences,” the supporter, Matt Van Swol, wrote in the original post that Trump re-shared.
Trump followed that up with another post laying out a lengthy list of his own supposed accomplishments. He later posted an image declaring “mission accomplished” in the Iran war.
It wasn’t difficult to get Trump’s implication: I did all of this, and my party hasn’t done enough to help me.
When asked Thursday whether Trump was washing his hands of congressional Republicans, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded: “The president is wholeheartedly committed to helping Republicans across the board retain the majority.”
But Trump said those Republicans would be to blame much more explicitly — and in his own words — earlier this month.
In an interview with Punchbowl News, he went so far as to claim (falsely) that people were only angry at other Republicans.
“The question is, will (people) vote? Because a lot of them are very angry at Republicans, to be honest with you,” Trump said. He added: “They’re angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me.”
(In fact, 63% of Americans disapprove of Trump in the CNN Poll of Polls. And fewer than 1 in 5 Americans “strongly” approve of him in most quality polls.)
Trump also seemed to set the table for this argument earlier in the summer, when he implored Senate Republicans to nix the filibuster and pass his elections bill, the “Save America Act.”
He repeatedly claimed that passing the legislation would mean Democrats couldn’t win elections anymore, and that failing to do so could cost the GOP dearly.
“We can only lose the midterms if we allow ourselves to lose the midterms – if we are foolish, stupid, and unwise,” he said at Mount Rushmore on July 3.
Later that month, he said, “If they don’t get it done, it’s going to be a very bad thing for the party.”
And he added on July 29 while talking about the midterms, “If we don’t (have unanimous GOP support), people should look at those Republicans.”
Trump also repeatedly in July targeted Senate Majority Leader John Thune in ways that suggested he could be lining him up as a scapegoat for failing to nix the filibuster.
“Remember, stupidity always brings LOSING & DEATH!” he said in one missive on social media.
Trump has also taken in recent days to telling voters to“pretend” he’s on the ballot this fall and to vote accordingly. He’s also aimed to make the midterms about him, including via his Trump-focused midterm convention next month that has Republicans fretting and, according to the Atlantic, heavily featuring himself in ads from his super PAC.
That points to a very real problem for the GOP, which is that the Trump coalition doesn’t show up as much when he isn’t personally on the ballot. And with the president’s approval ratings so low, Republicans acknowledge there’s little room to win over swing voters — their best bet, sources have told CNN, is to turn out the MAGA faithful.
But the president has also set this up as being about how voters love him but not other Republicans.
And it’s not difficult to see him reaching for that message if the November election turns out poorly for the GOP.
If that happens, the narrative will quickly turn to how much of a lame-duck president Trump is with two years left — especially if Republicans manage to lose both chambers of Congress. At that point, he’ll need a retort for why he’s not irreparably politically wounded and why this wasn’t a huge vote of no confidence in his presidency.
But if he does blame his party, it could rock the GOP at an inopportune time. Imagine Republicans licking their wounds from a bad election and having Trump piling on top of that by pushing 100% of the blame on the party’s shoulders.
Perhaps Republicans would just take it — like they shrug off so many of Trump’s other provocations. But it might be difficult for some of them to swallow after Trump caused them so many problems. And some might even reason this is a chance to turn the page on a term-limited president.
If it comes to that, Republicans might prefer that Trump keep lying about voter fraud instead.
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