2026-08-19T14:05:05.856Z / 路透社
作者：迈克尔·S·德比
2026年8月19日 下午2:05 UTC 更新于2小时前
2025年8月7日，美国纽约市，美国总统特朗普实施新关税期间，人们在第五大道行走。路透社/亚当·格雷 购买授权，打开新标签页
- 波士顿联储研究人员发现，生产率削弱了特朗普关税对通胀的影响
- 波士顿联储称，其他因素可能比关税对通胀更为关键
- 论文：生产率增长“有力抵消了关税引发的消费者价格上涨”
8月19日（路透社）——波士顿联邦储备银行的最新研究显示，美国强劲的生产率水平似乎削弱了唐纳德·特朗普总统大规模贸易关税的全部通胀影响。
“2025年关税推高成本的行业，同时也经历了更大幅度的劳动生产率增长，这帮助它们缓解了成本上涨的压力，”该银行研究人员在周三发布的一篇论文中写道。
开启您的晨间资讯：《每日案卷》新闻简报直接发送至您的收件箱。点击此处注册
广告 · 滚动继续阅读
这意味着，尽管企业可能因总统的关税上调面临更高的投入成本，但通过提高员工的产出效率，它们得以推迟将这些成本转嫁给消费者。反过来，这帮助通胀——已经连续五年高于美联储2%的目标——比没有这些关税时的水平更低。
研究作者发现，整体而言，关税从特朗普上台前的平均2.5%上调至10%，叠加健康的生产率增长，使核心个人消费支出价格指数上涨了0.5个百分点。
广告 · 滚动继续阅读
分析师们表示，面临关税相关成本大幅上涨的企业设法保持了产出稳定，同时削减了劳动力投入，“工时的减少推动了劳动生产率的更快增长”。
该论文指出，自2025年以来关税对价格压力的上行推动幅度意味着，高通胀的责任可能需要归咎于其他因素。
“因此，生产率增长有力抵消了关税引发的消费者价格上涨，”经济学家们写道，并指出“考虑到劳动生产率的增长，通胀本应更接近2%”，而非过去一年的实际水平。
“其他因素可能对通胀的影响比关税更持久，这些因素也可能是通胀的重要推手，”他们写道。
然而，美联储的其他研究则认为，关税已大幅转嫁给消费者，纽约联储近期的一项研究称，特朗普的贸易政策还将带来更多通胀压力。
blob:https://www.reuters.com/446e1e44-04df-40f5-8d4f-f38d48fcda34
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/boston-fed-paper-says-strong-productivity-blunted-tariff-inflation-impact-2026-08-19/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/boston-fed-paper-says-strong-productivity-blunted-tariff-inflation-impact-2026-08-19/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/boston-fed-paper-says-strong-productivity-blunted-tariff-inflation-impact-2026-08-19/
通胀驱动因素
在过去一年半左右的时间里，特朗普的关税一直是通胀辩论以及美联储应如何通过货币政策应对该问题的核心议题。
在新冠疫情相关 disruptions 和大规模政府救助政策推高价格压力后，随着特朗普2025年初重返白宫，通胀原本正朝着目标回落。但在许多美联储官员和私营部门经济学家看来，他的进口税上调成为了通胀卷土重来的关键因素之一。
近几个月来，尽管美联储官员预计关税影响将随与伊朗战争相关的高能源价格一同消退，但他们仍将通胀高于目标水平归咎于关税的持续影响。
同时推高通胀的还有美国科技基础设施建设热潮。许多人希望，推动科技支出的人工智能投资最终将在未来某个时点降低通胀压力。
广告 · 滚动继续阅读
该研究的作者表示，限制通胀的生产率环境可能源于长期趋势，或是依赖更昂贵外国投入品的企业被挤出市场。作者还表示，这也可能是因为企业为应对关税推动的投入成本上涨，加大了设备和生产投资以降低劳动力成本。
迈克尔·S·德比 报道；千住Nomiyama 编辑
我们的标准：汤姆森路透社信任原则，打开新标签页
Boston Fed paper says strong productivity blunted tariff inflation impact
2026-08-19T14:05:05.856Z / Reuters
By Michael S. Derby
August 19, 2026 2:05 PM UTC Updated 2 hours ago
People walk on Fifth Avenue as President Trump’s new tariffs are imposed, in New York City, U.S., August 7, 2025. REUTERS/Adam Gray Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Boston Fed researchers find productivity blunted Trump tariff inflation impact
- Boston Fed says factors other than tarifss may be more key to inflation
- Paper: Productivity gains “strongly offset the increase in consumer prices induced by tariffs”
Aug 19 (Reuters) – Robust U.S. productivity levels appear to have blunted the full inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s large-scale trade tariffs, new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said.
“Industries in which tariffs induced higher costs in 2025 also experienced greater labor productivity growth, which helped them mitigate those higher costs,” bank researchers wrote in a paper released on Wednesday.
Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. Sign up here.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
That means that while firms may have confronted higher input costs due to the president’s tax increases, by getting more output out of their workforces they were able to hold off on passing on those costs. That in turn helped inflation, which has been above the Fed’s 2% target for half a decade, come in lower than it otherwise would have due to the taxes.
Altogether, the tariffs, which rose from an average level of 2.5% before Trump’s return to 10%, joined with healthy productivity rates, added 0.5 percentage point to the core level of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the authors found.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
The analysts said firms facing strong tariff-related cost increases managed to keep output steady while cutting labor inputs, and “the reduction in hours contributed to greater labor productivity growth.”
The paper noted the amount of upward lift that the tariffs added to price pressures since 2025 means the blame for high inflation may need other culprits.
“Productivity gains thus strongly offset the increase in consumer prices induced by tariffs,” the economists wrote, noting “given labor productivity gains, inflation should have been closer to 2 percent” rather than the levels that prevailed over the last year.
“Other factors, whose effects on inflation may be less transient than those of tariffs, could have been significant contributors to inflation as well,” they wrote.
Other Fed research, however, has contended that tariffs have been passed on strongly to consumers, with recent work from the New York Fed saying more inflation is yet to come from Trump’s trade policy.
blob:https://www.reuters.com/446e1e44-04df-40f5-8d4f-f38d48fcda34
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/boston-fed-paper-says-strong-productivity-blunted-tariff-inflation-impact-2026-08-19/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/boston-fed-paper-says-strong-productivity-blunted-tariff-inflation-impact-2026-08-19/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/boston-fed-paper-says-strong-productivity-blunted-tariff-inflation-impact-2026-08-19/
INFLATION DRIVERS
Over the last year and a half or so, Trump’s tariffs have played a starring role in the debate over inflation and how the Fed should manage this situation via monetary policy.
After price pressures surged due to COVID-19-related disruptions and expansive government support policies, inflation had been moving back to target as Trump returned to the White House at the start of 2025. His import tax increases became one of the key factors that started a resurgence of inflation, in the view of many Fed officials and private sector economists.
Over recent months, central bank officials have tied above-target levels of inflation to the ongoing impact of the tariffs even as they have expected the impact of the levies to fade, along with higher energy prices tied to the Iran war.
Also buoying inflation has been the build out of the nation’s tech infrastructure boom. The investment in artificial intelligence that has been driving tech spending is hoped by many to be a force that ultimately lowers inflation pressure at some point in the future.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue
The study’s authors said the inflation limiting productivity landscape may result from longer-running trends, or from firms that relied on more expensive foreign inputs being forced out of the market. The authors said it could also come down to firms investing more in equipment and production to reduce labor costs in the face of tariff-driven input-cost increases.
Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
发表回复