2026-08-09T04:00:29.696Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
亚伦·布莱克 分析报道
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发布于 2026年8月9日 美国东部时间凌晨00:00
唐纳德·特朗普 国家安全
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8月7日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在新泽西州纽瓦克的纽瓦克自由国际机场走下空军一号。
埃里克·李/盖蒂图片社
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普目前的政治声望极差，以至于他浪费了共和党在两大几乎总是对共和党有利的关键议题上的传统优势：经济与国家安全。
本周路透社-益普索的一项民调显示，两党在“战争、外国冲突与恐怖主义”议题上几乎势均力敌。2024年大选后，共和党在该议题上曾领先11个百分点。如今，37%的美国成年人认为民主党有更好的应对方案，而持该观点的共和党人占比为36%。
几周前的福克斯新闻民调结果也极为相似：在国家安全议题上，50%的登记选民更支持共和党，48%的选民更支持民主党。而今年1月伊朗冲突爆发前，共和党在该议题上的领先优势为12个百分点。
这两项近期民调结果都处于误差范围内，但双方支持率如此接近几乎是闻所未闻的。
福克斯新闻的民调经常会调查登记选民对两党在恐怖主义和国家安全议题上的表现对比。在伊朗冲突爆发前，民主党在这两个议题上从未拉近过与共和党个位数的差距。
盖洛普民调中，共和党也始终在国家安全议题上占据领先地位。民主党在21世纪仅在2007年一度领先过一次。
盖洛普关于“哪个政党更擅长应对国际恐怖主义和军事威胁”的民调数据，对共和党而言更是一边倒。
在911事件一年后开展的22项相关民调中，民主党仅在2007年领先过一次，而共和党在大多数时候都保持着两位数的领先优势。
再说说经济议题。
最新的福克斯民调显示，民主党在经济议题上以9个百分点的优势领先共和党，支持率分别为54%和45%。这是民主党自2006年以来的最大领先优势，当时民主党以20个百分点的优势领先。
今年4月民主党首次在经济议题上实现领先，这也是2010年以来的首次——2010年距乔治·W·布什政府时期爆发的2008年金融危机仅过去不久。
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）5月份的民调显示两党在经济议题上差距更小，35%的成年人更支持民主党，33%的成年人更支持共和党。
该民调此前曾要求受访者在国会共和党人和国会民主党人之间做出选择。共和党上一次在该问题上未能领先还要追溯到2009年。
这两方面的民调数据似乎都表明，特朗普严重误判了发动伊朗冲突以及全球关税等其他争议性政策带来的后果。
通过征收关税，他实际上将经济表现的责任完全揽到了自己身上。随后，他对美国人担忧的通胀问题基本置之不理，进一步加剧了公众的负面情绪。如今，他还要应对依旧低迷的经济形势——7月份美国国内就业岗位减少了2.3万个。
1月9日，在华盛顿特区白宫东厅与美国石油公司高管会晤前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普透过窗户观看新宴会厅的施工情况。
索尔·洛/法新社/盖蒂图片社
美国民众并不青睐民主党；事实上，民主党在民调中的支持率一直偏低。因此，民主党能够在经济议题上实现领先这一事实本身就极具说明意义。
而国家安全议题的民调数据可能更令人震惊——因为民主党几乎从未在该议题上与共和党形成过竞争。
正如教育和医疗议题几乎总是对民主党有利一样，国家安全和保卫国土几乎一直是共和党的标志性优势议题，且优势悬殊。
即便乔治·W·布什发动的中东战争逐渐变得不受欢迎，这一局面也未曾改变。
但特朗普似乎在伊朗冲突问题上处理得极为糟糕，以至于美国人突然认为民主党在这个原本属于共和党主场的议题上与共和党不相上下。
唐纳德·特朗普 国家安全
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Trump has squandered Republicans’ typical advantages in 2 key areas
2026-08-09T04:00:29.696Z / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Aug 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Donald Trump National security
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US President Donald Trump walks off of Air Force One at Newark Liberty International Airport on August 7 in Newark, New Jersey.
Eric Lee/Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s political stature is so poor right now that he has squandered the Republican Party’s advantage on two major issues that almost always favor the GOP: the economy and national security.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll this week showed Democrats and Republicans virtually tied on “war, foreign conflicts and terrorism.” The GOP led on that issue by 11 points after the 2024 election. Today, 37% of US adults say Democrats have a better approach, compared to 36% who say the GOP does.
Fox News polling a couple weeks back showed something very similar: On national security, 50% of registered voters preferred the GOP, to 48% who preferred the Democratic Party. That’s compared to a 12-point edge for Republicans in January, before the Iran war.
Both recent findings are within the margin of error. But the numbers even being that close is basically unheard of.
Fox polling has regularly tested how registered voters compare the two parties on terrorism and national security. Until the Iran war, Democrats had never even been within double-digits of the Republican Party on either issue.
Republicans have also led consistently on national security in Gallup polling. Democrats only nosed ahead on that issue once in the 21st century: in 2007.
Gallup’s data on which party is better on “international terrorism and military threats” has been even more lopsided in the GOP’s favor.
Across 22 polls conducted since a year after 9/11, Democrats have led on that issue only once — again, in 2007 — and most of the time Republicans led by double-digits.
And then there’s the economy.
The most recent Fox survey showed Democrats leading on that issue by nine points, 54%-45%. That was the biggest Democratic advantage since 2006, when they led by 20 points.
Democratic Party supporters cheer during the Michigan Democratic Party General Election Kickoff Rally at Renaissance High School in Detroit, Michigan, on August 7.
Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images
And when they took a lead on the economy back in April, it marked the first time they were ahead since 2010, shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that began during the George W. Bush administration.
CNN polling back in May showed a closer split between the two parties on the economy, with 35% of adults preferring Democrats, compared to 33% who preferred the GOP.
The poll previously asked people to choose between congressional Republicans and congressional Democrats. The last time Republicans didn’t lead on that question was 2009.
The numbers on both fronts seem to illustrate that Trump greatly miscalculated the fallout from launching the Iran war — as well as other controversial policies like his global tariffs.
By launching the tariffs, he effectively took ownership of whatever became of the economic picture. Then he compounded negative public sentiment by basically shrugging off any responsibility to address Americans’ inflation concerns. Now he’s contending with a still-stagnant economic picture, with the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in July.
US President Donald Trump looks through a window to observe construction work on his new ballroom prior to a meeting with US oil company executives in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on January 9.
Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
Americans don’t love Democrats; in fact, the blue side remains pretty unpopular in polls. So the fact that they’ve apparently taken a lead on the economy really says something.
And the national security numbers might be even more striking — because Democrats hardly ever even compete with Republicans on the topic.
Just as education and health care almost always favor Democrats, national security and defending the homeland are almost always signature GOP issues, and lopsidedly so.
That remained true even when Bush launched wars in the Middle East that gradually became pretty unpopular.
Trump, though, seems to have botched the Iran war so badly that Americans suddenly see Democrats on equal footing with the GOP — in terms of issues on the GOP’s own turf.
Donald Trump National security
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