2026年7月26日 / 美国东部时间上午9:01 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
詹妮弗·德·平托、弗雷德·巴克斯 报道
在长达数月的伊朗冲突期间，民众持续表达了三大核心观点：
- 对霍尔木兹海峡每日局势的发展缺乏清晰认知。
- 既然美国已卷入冲突，美方本可以追求诸多重要目标。
- 局势进展并不顺利。
因此在当下战事再次升级之际，多数美国人将“不安”与“沮丧”列为形容自身对冲突感受的首选词汇。
无论如何，如今大多数人预计这场冲突还将持续数月甚至数年，绝大多数受访者表示，局势的棘手程度远超特朗普政府的预期。
民众明确表达的目标始终如一。
对多数美国人而言，确保霍尔木兹海峡通航（尤其是在国内汽油价格回升的背景下）、阻止伊朗核计划以及制止伊朗威胁地区安全，仍是重要诉求。
但这并不意味着民众认为这场冲突会轻易结束，多数人猜测冲突还将延续数月甚至数年。
鉴于此，多数人倾向于结束战争，而非坚持要求伊朗做出更多让步。
不过在结束战争的协议落空后，如今希望美国立即结束战事的人数相对减少，这一情绪主要由共和党人推动。上月特朗普宣布6月已达成停火谅解备忘录时，共和党人大多支持总统结束战事的决定，但如今在该协议破裂后，他们表示战争应继续进行。
在那三分之一希望美国继续向伊朗施压以获取更多让步的人群中，上述列出的目标尤为重要。
这一倾向还与年龄相关：与65岁以上的美国老年人相比，年轻人更倾向于认为战争应该结束。
不安情绪与局势评估
造成这种不安情绪的部分原因在于：
民众仍感觉无法清晰了解霍尔木兹海峡的每日局势，这种感受在数月乃至数周以来都没有缓解。
对多数人而言，特朗普总统并未帮助民众厘清局势，大多数受访者认为特朗普将局势描述得比实际情况更好。
总体而言，民众对战争进展的评价在冲突期间持续走低。
对于当前哪一方占据优势，民众的看法仍基本呈两极分化，多数人表示双方都不占优，认为美国如今占据优势的人数较5月略有增加。
在这样的背景下，民众对军事行动的整体支持率保持稳定，且仍处于净负面状态。
国内局势
美国国内的情况与近期大体一致——没有太多改善，也没有太多恶化。
（受访者表示，总体而言，世界杯曾在一段时间内让部分人对国家的观感有所好转。）
绝大多数民众表示，收入仍跟不上通胀增速，多数人认为总统并未足够重视降低物价，同时又过于关注仍不受欢迎的关税政策，还过于关注修改华盛顿特区的建筑相关政策。
半数美国人认为汽油价格带来了困难或经济负担，不过这一数字较此前的峰值有所下降。但汽油价格与冲突的关联依然存在，受负面影响更严重的人群尤其不认可此次军事行动。
同样，民众对经济的看法仍以负面为主，这一情况已持续多年，但在最近几周内保持相对稳定，且较近期的低点有所回升。
展望未来，那些认为收入跟不上通胀的人群绝大多数反对新增关税。
特朗普总统在伊朗问题上的支持率与此前基本持平，且仍低于他的整体支持率。整体支持率也维持在数月以来的水平，自6月以来上升了1个百分点。
自始至终，民众也并未看到两党在伊朗问题上达成共识的可能。与特朗普和共和党相比，民主党在伊朗政策上并未展现出明显优势。
而那些认为双方都不占优或不确定的民众，对冲突的不安情绪比整体公众更为强烈。
此次哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/舆观民调于2026年7月22日至24日进行，受访样本为具有全国代表性的2193名美国成年人。样本根据性别、年龄、种族、教育背景进行加权，以匹配全国成年人口分布，权重依据美国人口普查局美国社区调查和当前人口调查以及2024年总统选举投票结果确定。误差幅度为±2.7个百分点。
民调明细
CBS News poll finds Iran conflict marked by feelings of uncertainty; most say it’s more difficult than Trump had expected
July 26, 2026 / 9:01 AM EDT / CBS News
By Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus
Across months of the Iran conflict, the public continues to express three main ideas:
- A perceived lack of clarity about what’s happening day to day in the Strait of Hormuz.
- There are plenty of important goals the U.S. could seek, now that we’re in the conflict.
- The conflict is not going well.
So today, as fighting escalates again, most Americans pick “uncertain” and “frustrated” as the top ways to describe their personal feelings about it.
Either way, now most are expecting the conflict to take months or even years longer, with a big majority saying it’s been harder than the Trump administration anticipated.
The public’s expressed goals have been consistent.
It remains important to most Americans to open the Strait of Hormuz (especially as gas prices rise back home), to stop Iran’s nuclear program and to stop Iran from threatening the region.
But that doesn’t mean people think it’ll be easy, and most suspect the conflict will last months or even years longer.
Given that, a preference for ending the war — as opposed to pressing for more concessions from Iran — remains the majority view.
But after the deal to end the war fell through, comparably fewer today want the U.S. to end it right now, a sentiment driven largely by Republicans. They largely said they backed the president on ending it last month when he announced a memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire had been reached in June, but today, they say the war should continue after that deal fell apart.
For the one-third who do want the U.S. to press on for more concessions from Iran, the goals listed above are especially important.
It’s also related to age: Younger people are far more apt to say the war should end than older Americans over 65.
Uncertainty and assessments
Here’s part of what drives that uncertainty:
People still don’t feel they’re getting an understanding of what’s happening day to day in the Strait of Hormuz, a feeling that has not abated over months and weeks.
And to most, President Trump isn’t helping on that search for clarity in the public, as most feel Mr. Trump makes things sound better than they are.
On balance, perceptions of how the war is going have ticked down through the course of it.
Perceptions of who has the advantage at the moment remain mixed, at best, with many still saying neither side, and a few more saying the U.S. has the advantage now than in May.
Against that backdrop, approval of the action overall remains stable, and net negative.
The situation at home
Things in the U.S. look much the same as they have lately — not a lot better and not a lot worse.
(The World Cup did, on balance, make some people feel better about the country for a while, they said.)
For a large majority, incomes still aren’t keeping up with inflation — and most say the president’s focus is not enough on lowering prices, and also too much on still-unpopular tariffs (and too much on making changes to buildings in D.C., too.)
Half the country says gas prices are difficult or a hardship, though that number is a bit off its highs now. But the connection to the conflict remains, as those who are more negatively impacted especially disapprove of the military action.
Similarly, views on the economy continue to be majority bad, as they have been for many years, but they remain fairly stable over recent weeks and are off their most recent lows.
Looking ahead, those who say their income is not keeping up with inflation are overwhelmingly opposed to new tariffs.
The president’s approval rating on Iran remains about where it’s been, and is still lower than his approval rating overall. That overall approval is also in the range of where it’s been for months and has ticked up a point since June.
Through it all, the public doesn’t necessarily see answers on Iran across the political aisle, either. Democrats don’t have a perceived edge on an approach to Iran in comparison with Trump and the Republicans.
And the people who think neither side does or aren’t sure are feeling even more uncertain about the conflict than the public overall.
*
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,193 U.S. adults interviewed between July 22-24, 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.7 points.
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