2026-09-30T12:49:16.042Z / 路透社
- 摘要
- 个人消费支出物价指数8月上涨0.3%；同比上涨3.4%
- 核心个人消费支出通胀上涨0.2%；同比上涨3.0%
- 政府调整了部分分项数据的计算方法
- 消费者支出激增0.9%；储蓄率上调
- 第二季度国内生产总值增长率向上修正至2.2%
华盛顿，9月30日（路透社）——美国8月通胀涨幅低于预期，且此前一个月的物价压力较此前报告更为温和，这可能降低美联储在10月再次加息的紧迫性。
不过，周三美国商务部发布的报告显示上月消费者支出激增，因此今年再次加息仍在考虑范围内。尽管美以与伊朗的冲突推高了能源价格，柴油价格已创下历史新高，但经济迄今似乎仍保持韧性。金融市场下调了下月加息的预期押注。
通过《早盘竞价美国市场》新闻简报，了解美国及全球市场当日前瞻。点击此处订阅。
“8月未及市场恐慌程度的通胀数据或许为美联储争取了时间，使其可以等待更多数据后再行动，可能跳过10月28日的会议，但通胀仍处于高位，消费者和经济表现强劲，这意味着年底前仍有可能再次加息，”蒙特利尔银行资本市场高级经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂耶里说道。
美国商务部经济分析局表示，个人消费支出物价指数上月上涨0.3%，此前7月的数据向上修正后仅上涨0.1%。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前曾预测，在7月涨幅经初报0.2%后，8月该指数将上涨0.4%。
截至8月的12个月里，个人消费支出通胀率上涨3.4%，7月的数据经向下修正后涨幅同样为3.4%。此前官方曾公布7月同比通胀率为3.7%。经济分析局调整了个人消费支出物价指数中软件及配件、投资组合管理费和法律服务的价格计算方法。
该局还对2021年以来的通胀数据进行了修正。
剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，个人消费支出物价指数上月上涨0.2%，此前7月的涨幅经向下修正后为0.1%。此前初步预估7月核心个人消费支出通胀涨幅为0.2%。
10月加息概率降低
8月核心个人消费支出通胀同比上涨3.0%，7月的数据经向下修正后涨幅同样为3.0%。此前初步预估截至7月的12个月里，核心通胀率为3.3%。美国央行以2%的通胀目标为基准，追踪个人消费支出物价指标。
美联储本月将基准隔夜利率上调至3.75%-4.00%区间，这是三年来首次加息，并暗示未来几个月将进一步提高借贷成本。纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯周二表示，他认为“没有必要”进一步加息，这降低了10月加息的可能性。
芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察工具显示，金融市场预计10月27日至28日的会议上加息概率约为34.9%，低于通胀数据发布前的51.5%以及周一的70%。美国股市上涨，美元兑一篮子货币走低，美国国债收益率下跌。
高通胀和高借贷成本可能会抑制消费者支出。会议委员会周二发布的一项调查显示，9月消费者信心暴跌至近12.5年以来的低点。不过，目前尚无迹象表明消费者会大幅缩减开支。
占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出上月激增0.9%，此前7月的数据经向下修正后仅上涨0.1%。此前官方曾预估7月支出涨幅为0.2%。经通胀调整后，消费者支出上涨0.6%。
第二季度消费者支出以年化3.8%的速度增长，推动经济增速达到2.2%。此前支出增速有望在本季度再次实现强劲增长。国内生产总值还得到了与人工智能基础设施建设相关的商业投资的支撑，商业设备支出连续第二个季度实现两位数增长。
人工智能推动的股市上涨以及家庭动用储蓄、减少应急储蓄也支撑了消费者支出。个人收入上月上涨0.2%。扣除税收后，家庭可支配收入上涨0.3%。但经通胀调整后，可支配收入持平。
储蓄率从7月的4.6%降至上月的4.1%。不过年度修正数据显示，家庭储蓄规模较此前预估更高。
“中低收入家庭的金融资产匮乏，收入对其购买力至关重要，他们面临的财务压力比此前担忧的要小，”荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利说道。
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US inflation rises below expectations in August; consumer spending robust
2026-09-30T12:49:16.042Z / Reuters
- Summary
- PCE Price Index increases 0.3% in August; up 3.4% year-on-year
- Core PCE inflation gains 0.2%; advances 3.0% year-on-year
- Government changed methodology for some components
- Consumer spending surges 0.9%; saving rate revised higher
- Gross domestic product increases at upwardly revised 2.2% rate in second quarter
WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) – US inflation increased less than expected in August and price pressures were more moderate in the prior month than previously reported, likely reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in October.
Another rate hike this year, however, remains on the table as the report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed consumer spending surging last month. The economy so far appears to be holding up despite headwinds from the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has raised energy prices, with diesel prices at record highs. Financial markets knocked down bets for a rate increase next month.
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“The less-than-feared price data for August may buy the Fed time to await more data and pass on October 28, but still-elevated inflation and a resilient consumer and economy point to another rate hike by year-end,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4% after a previously reported 0.2% gain in July.
In the 12 months through August, PCE inflation advanced 3.4% after increasing by a downwardly revised 3.4% in July. PCE inflation was previously reported to have increased 3.7% in July on a year-on-year basis. The BEA changed its methodology for calculating prices for software and accessories, portfolio management fees and legal services in the PCE price index.
It also revised the inflation data going back to 2021.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index climbed 0.2% over the month after a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in July. The so-called core PCE inflation was previously estimated to have gained 0.2% in July.
OCTOBER RATE HIKE ODDS DIMINISH
Core PCE inflation increased 3.0% year-on-year in August after a downwardly revised 3.0% advance in July. Underlying inflation was initially estimated to have risen 3.3% in the 12 months through July. The US central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target.
The Fed this month raised its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range, the first rate hike in three years, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead. The odds of an October rate hike were diminished by New York Fed President John Williams’ comments on Tuesday that he saw “no urgency” for further action.
Financial markets priced in a roughly 34.9% chance of an increase in borrowing costs at the October 27-28 meeting, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed. That was down from 51.5% before the inflation data and 70% on Monday. US stocks rose. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. US Treasury yields fell.
Higher inflation and borrowing costs could crimp consumer spending. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumer confidence plummeting to a near 12-1/2-year low in September. There are, however, no signs yet of consumers significantly dialing back.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, surged 0.9% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July, the BEA said. Spending was previously estimated to have gained 0.2% in July. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.6%.
Spending is on track to post another robust quarter of growth after rising at a 3.8% annualized rate in the April-June quarter, and helping to drive the economy to a 2.2% growth pace during that period. Gross domestic product was also supported by business investment related to the buildout of AI infrastructure, with business spending on equipment posting another quarter of double-digit growth.
Consumer spending is also being underpinned by AI-driven stock market gains as well as households tapping into their savings and setting aside less money for a rainy day. Personal income rose 0.2% in August. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for taxes increased 0.3%. Disposable income was, however, flat after adjusting for inflation.
The saving rate dropped to 4.1% last month from 4.6% in July. Annual revisions, however, showed households had more savings than previously estimated.
“The middle- and lower-income households, for whom income is so critical to spending power given the lack of financial assets, have been under less financial pressure than feared,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
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