2026年11月6日 美国东部时间上午5:00 / KFF健康新闻
密歇根州兰辛市——拥有15年急诊护士从业经验的金·博根坚信,要修复美国医疗体系,唯一的办法就是将其彻底推倒重来。
她负责分诊的患者病情比以往任何时候都更严重。许多患者无力支付在急诊室开具的处方药费用。有时看着患者离世,她会暗自思忖:要是当时没有同时照顾五六个其他患者,自己能不能救回他们。
正因如此,过去一年里,她一方面在该市斯派罗医院连上12小时的班,另一方面为阿卜杜勒·赛义德竞选奔走。这位民主党人将“全民医保”作为国会竞选的核心议题,如今已当选参议员。
但她也意识到,即便像得克萨斯州、艾奥瓦州、缅因州和密歇根州这样的州,进步派候选人以某种形式的全民医保政策为纲领成功竞选,也不意味着全民医保就能轻易推行。“没人想到会是这样,”博根说。
全民医保通常指一项政府主导的医保项目,通过取代大部分或全部私人保险,为美国公民提供医保保障。批评者已指出,即便在2026年中期选举这样规模庞大的“蓝色浪潮”中,最热心的全民医保支持者通常也比温和派民主党人赢得的优势更小。
“无论选民在这次中期选举中还因什么投票——对通胀的愤怒、对腐败的愤怒、对伊朗战争的愤怒——总体而言,他们投票反对的是政府接管医保,”北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校的教授、医疗改革专家乔纳森·奥伯兰德表示。
不过,全民医保的支持者将当下视为千载难逢的机遇,因为美国民众正被医疗费用压得不堪重负,渴望变革。包括俄勒冈州在内的几个州,已经在探索建立单一 payer(单一支付者)体系需要满足哪些条件。
奥伯兰德说,可负担性危机“主导了本次选举,而全民医保正是针对这一问题提出的解决方案”。他还表示,全民医保支持者预计,这一政策议程将在2028年民主党总统初选期间获得重大推进。
但更为温和的民主党人可能将这一理念日益高涨的呼声视为威胁——他们已在艾奥瓦州、堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等州获得了一些席位。“如果民主党想保住这些来之不易的席位,他们很可能无意推进全民医保,”奥伯兰德说,“在倾向共和党的州,这是巨大的政治风险。因此,即便民主党占了多数,也不意味着多数人支持全民医保。”
libertarian(自由意志主义者)所属的卡托研究所医疗经济学家、全民医保反对者迈克尔·坎农表示,此前的全民医保提案需要让数百万民众主动放弃现有医保,这遭到了医疗行业前所未有的反对。
“如果全民医保的价格水平真的达到伯尼·桑德斯和阿卜杜勒·赛义德设想的那样,医疗行业会把它撕得粉碎,”他说。
https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/gettyimages-1255511322.jpg
2023年5月17日,参议员伯尼·桑德斯(佛蒙特州独立议员)与众议员普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔(华盛顿州民主党议员)宣布重新提交《全民医保法案》。德鲁·安杰勒 / 盖蒂图片社
最新的KFF民调显示,尽管支持全民医保的选民数量已升至近十年来的新高,但当听到常见的反对观点——比如可能导致增税或治疗延迟——时,支持率就会回落。
杰米·巴登哈根说,想到要从政府那里获得医保,她就会有些愧疚。巴登哈根曾是密歇根州北部利勒诺县的一名护士,患有帕金森病和唾液酸苷酶缺乏症——一种可能引发癫痫的罕见遗传病。
然而,对于明年有资格申领残疾福利,她“心里不好受”。她说,在农场长大时,她就“不相信”这类项目。你应该靠自己的劳动获得所需,而不是依靠政府补助。“而且我已经拼尽全力工作,工作了尽可能久的时间。”
但和数百万美国民众一样,巴登哈根和丈夫在今年看到医保费用暴涨,原因是《平价医疗法案》的补充补贴到期了。
他们的月保费从700美元涨到了1300美元,免赔额达7500美元。她说,他们开始推迟医生要求做的医学检查。“我们负担不起,”她说。
她的丈夫在2016年投了唐纳德·特朗普的票,巴登哈根说。这次选举他没有去投票。身为民主党人的巴登哈根也曾考虑放弃中期选举投票。“我不再信任任何一方了,”她说。
尽管心存疑虑,她还是表示支持全民医保。她说,多年的护士经历让她对现行医疗体系感到失望。
她觉得,是保险公司而不是医生在主导决策,决定着患者能获得哪些处方药和治疗项目。她想,要是“善良的人”在政府里做这些决定,会不会更公平?“所以,政府绝对应该接管医疗体系。”
这种接管是坎农最不愿看到的局面。这位自由意志主义经济学家表示,让联邦政府加强对医疗体系的控制只会适得其反。患者将陷入“更脆弱的境地,因为他们获取医疗服务要依赖根本无法持续的政府支出”。
他说,全民医保支持者的想法很天真,以为用公共医保取代私人计划,就能让政府压低药品和医疗价格。“大家都知道,最后还是行业说了算,而且自从通过《 Medicare(联邦医疗保险)》以来一直都是如此,”坎农说。
对于密歇根州北部的前护士巴登哈根而言,她希望民主党从本次中期选举中得到的信息很简单:“做点实事,”她说。
“从选举结果来看,两党都将面临压力,需要拿出解决方案,解决当前的医疗可负担性危机,”公私合营的医疗研究基金会“英联邦基金”的高级学者萨拉·柯林斯说。
这可能意味着达成一些在中期选举前看起来难以实现、规模较小但仍有重要意义的跨党派协议:比如恢复去年年底到期的《平价医疗法案》补充补贴,或是其他获得广泛支持的措施,比如限制保险公司使用“事前授权”——要求患者在接受承保治疗前获得保险公司批准。
“我觉得这可能是他们最容易达成的目标,”南卡罗来纳州沙利文岛的政治战略家帕特里夏·沃托瓦说。
随着明年《平价医疗法案》保费再次上涨两位数、雇主将日益增加的保费成本更多转嫁给员工,以及 Medicaid(医疗补助)面临大规模削减——预计到2034年将新增750万人无医保,医疗改革的压力还可能进一步增大。
整体而言,中期选举结果可能会推动民主党的医疗议程进一步向左转,奥伯兰德说。一些民主党人可能会支持“公共选项”——一种人们可以自愿加入的政府医保计划。党内另一些人可能会围绕某种版本的全民医保结成同盟,这种全民医保不会完全取代私人保险,而是作为“有保障的基本政府医保”,正如赛义德在竞选中描述他当前的计划那样。
“如果你喜欢你的雇主或工会提供的保险,它仍然可以为你保留,”他说。
奥伯兰德说,无论他们选择哪种方案,民主党人都不应指望选民愿意耐心等待多年的渐进式变革。“机会窗口一旦打开,你就得立刻行动。”
南卡罗来纳州记者劳伦·索瑟为本报道提供了协助。
KFF健康新闻是一个独立的医疗政策研究、民调和新闻机构,是KFF的核心运营项目之一,KFF是专注于医疗问题的深度报道机构。
November 6, 2026 / 5:00 AM EST / KFF Health News
LANSING, Mich. — Fifteen years working as an emergency room nurse has convinced Kim Bogan that the only way to fix the American healthcare system is to tear it down and start over.
Her patients arriving for triage are sicker than ever. They can’t afford many of the prescriptions they get in the ER. And sometimes when patients die, she wonders if she could have saved them had she not been caring for five or six other people at once.
That’s why she spent the past year shuttling between 12-hour shifts at this city’s Sparrow Hospital and campaigning for Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat who made “Medicare for All” a signature issue in his congressional campaign and is now a senator-elect.
But she realizes that just because progressive candidates successfully campaigned on some form of the policy in states such as Texas, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, it doesn’t mean Medicare for All will be an easy sell. “Nobody expected that,” Bogan said.
Medicare for All typically refers to a government health program that would guarantee Americans coverage by replacing most or all private insurance. Critics are already pointing out that, even in a blue wave as massive as the 2026 midterms, the most vocal Medicare for All champions generally won by smaller margins than more moderate Democrats.
“Whatever else people voted for in this midterm election — anger about inflation, anger about corruption, anger about the Iran war — they by and large didn’t vote to have the government take over health insurance,” said Jonathan Oberlander, a professor and healthcare reform expert at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
Still, supporters of universal healthcare see this moment as a once-in-a-generation opportunity because Americans are buckling under the weight of healthcare costs and are hungry for change. Several states, including Oregon, are already exploring what it would take to set up single-payer systems.
The affordability crisis “dominated this election, and Medicare for All speaks to that,” Oberlander said. Medicare for All supporters expect the policy agenda will gain major momentum heading into the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries, he said.
But more moderate Democrats may see the idea’s growing popularity as a threat to gains they made in states such as Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina. “If Democrats want to hold those seats, which were very difficult to win, they’re probably not interested in passing Medicare for All,” Oberlander said. “That’s a huge political risk in red-leaning states. So just because Democrats have a majority doesn’t mean it’s a majority for Medicare for All.”
Previous Medicare for All proposals would have required getting millions of people to willingly give up their existing coverage, fueling unprecedented opposition from the healthcare industry, said Michael Cannon, a healthcare economist at the libertarian Cato Institute and a Medicare for All opponent.
“If Medicare for All actually had the price levels that Bernie Sanders and Abdul El-Sayed envision, the industry would tear it to shreds,” he said.
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Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) announce the reintroduction of the Medicare For All Act on May 17, 2023. Drew Angerer / Getty Images
And even as voters say they support Medicare for All in greater numbers than in nearly a decade, support falters when they’re presented with common arguments against it — like it could lead to higher taxes or delays in treatment — according to a recent KFF poll.
Jaime Bardenhagen said she feels a little guilty about the idea of getting her healthcare coverage from the government. A former nurse in rural Leelanau County in northern Michigan, Bardenhagen has Parkinson’s and sialidosis, a rare genetic disease that can cause seizures.
Yet she “feels bad” about qualifying for disability benefits next year. Such programs were something she “didn’t believe in” while growing up on a farm, she said. You were supposed to work for what you needed, she said, not rely on government support. “And I did work as hard as I could, for as long as I could.”
But like millions of Americans, Bardenhagen and her husband saw their health insurance costs skyrocket this year, after the Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies expired.
Their monthly premiums went from $700 to $1,300, with a deductible of $7,500. They started putting off medical tests her doctor wanted, she said. “We couldn’t afford that,” she said.
Her husband voted for Donald Trump in 2016, Bardenhagen said. This time, he stayed home. Bardenhagen, a Democrat, also considered sitting out the midterms. “I just don’t trust either party anymore,” she said.
Despite those misgivings, she says she supports Medicare for All. Her years as a nurse left her disillusioned with the current healthcare system, she said.
She felt the insurance companies, not doctors, were calling the shots, determining which prescriptions and procedures patients could receive. Wouldn’t it be fairer, she figured, if “good people” in government were making those calls? “So, absolutely, the government should take it over.”
That takeover is Cannon’s worst-case scenario. The libertarian economist said giving the federal government greater control over the healthcare system would only backfire. Patients would be left “in even more vulnerable positions, because they would be relying for their access to healthcare on government spending that is just not sustainable.”
Medicare for All supporters are naive to think the government could negotiate lower drug and healthcare prices by replacing private plans with a public one, he said. “Everyone knows that the industry is going to end up running the show, and that has been the case since they passed Medicare,” Cannon said.
For Bardenhagen, the former nurse in northern Michigan, the message she wants Democrats to take from the midterms is simple: “Do something,” she said.
“With the election results, both parties are going to be under pressure to come up with solutions to address the current affordability crisis in healthcare,” said Sara Collins, a senior scholar at the Commonwealth Fund, a private foundation that supports healthcare research.
That could mean smaller, but still significant, bipartisan deals that might have seemed unthinkable before the midterms: things such as reinstating the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that expired at the end of last year, or other measures with broad support, such as curbing insurance companies’ use of prior authorizations, which requires patients to get insurers’ approval before proceeding with a covered treatment.
“That’s probably the lowest-hanging fruit for them, I’d think,” said Patricia Votava, a political strategist based in Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina.
The pressure for healthcare reform is likely to grow, too, with Affordable Care Act premiums set to rise by double digits again next year; employers passing on more of their growing insurance premium costs to workers; and massive cuts to Medicaid looming, which are projected to leave 7.5 million more people uninsured by 2034.
On the whole, the midterm results could push Democrats’ healthcare agenda further left, Oberlander said. Some Democrats could support a public option, a government-backed health plan people could opt into. Others in the party could coalesce around a version of Medicare for All that doesn’t fully replace private insurance but serves as “guaranteed baseline government health insurance,” as El-Sayed described his current plan in the campaign.
“If you like your insurance from your employer or from your union, that can still be there for you,” he said.
Whatever they opt for, Democrats shouldn’t expect voters to be willing to wait patiently for years of gradual change, Oberlander said. “If the window opens, you better jump right through.”
South Carolina correspondent Lauren Sausser contributed to this report.
KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.
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