2026-11-05T20:47:48.417Z
2026年中期选举对民主党而言显然整体表现极佳，但他们在众议院的多数席位正朝着创纪录的方向发展。
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）预测，民主党已赢得超过250个众议院席位，净增约40席，最终总席位甚至可能达到或超过260个。
这将使他们获得约85席的多数优势，成为自20世纪90年代初以来民主党在众议院最大的多数席位——那是民主党对众议院数十年统治的末期。
在周四下午翻转更多席位后，民主党已在259个选区获胜或处于领先地位。如果这些优势保持不变，共和党最终将获得174个席位（路易斯安那州的两场选举将进入决胜选举）。
有6个选区民主党仅以约1个百分点或更少的优势领先：南卡罗来纳州第1选区、科罗拉多州第4选区、佛罗里达州第9选区、明尼苏达州第1选区、北卡罗来纳州第5选区和田纳西州第4选区。
如果民主党获得260个席位，这将是他们自1991-1993年以来在众议院的最大多数席位，当时他们拥有267个席位。在接下来的国会中他们拥有258个席位，在前总统巴拉克·奥巴马2008年大胜、民主党掌权后，他们又拿下257个席位。
通过赢得超过250个席位，民主党在众议院的多数席位已经超过了大萧条以来的任何共和党多数席位（自那以后，共和党在2014年选举后获得的247个席位是其最高纪录）。如果他们赢得260个席位，将意味着民主党赢得了全部众议院席位的60%。
这与民主党在参议院获得54%至56%的席位（取决于阿拉斯加和密西西比州最后两场选举的结果）形成对比。
看起来在所有选举结果确定后，民主党将获得约50个席位。
如果他们赢得目前领先的259个席位，这将是净增44席。
这将是过去半个世纪以来第三大席位增幅，仅次于2010年（共和党净增63席）和1994年（共和党净增54席）。
这也将超过民主党近年来中期选举的最大增幅：2018年选举（净增41席）和2006年选举（净增31席）。
但深入分析细节，此次翻转的席位数量可能比上述所有情况都更为显著。
2010年共和党翻转了如此多的席位，很大程度上是因为民主党在2008年选举后拥有如此庞大的多数席位，这意味着共和党在保守派倾向的地区有许多容易拿下的席位。
1994年选举中，共和党也在逐步削弱民主党近260席的多数优势。
相比之下，2026年选举开始时众议院席位几乎平分秋色：共和党占220个选区，民主党占215个。民主党还面临一个问题：共和党重新划分了部分选区，为自己划出更多保守派倾向的地区（不过这一策略并未奏效）。
另一个重要指标是普选得票率。目前，民主党领先约12个百分点——随着更多选票的公布，特别是来自西部民主党倾向州的选票，这一差距未来几天可能还会扩大。
不过这一数据也存在一些需要注意的地方。加州的 Top-Two 初选制度导致一些选举是共和党与共和党、民主党与民主党之间的竞争，而非全部435个选区都有两大政党的候选人参选，这在一定程度上扭曲了数据。
但总的来说，这仍然是一个良好的衡量标准。
布鲁金斯学会的数据显示，这将是自1982年以来，一个政党第二次在众议院普选得票率上实现两位数领先，另一次是2008年奥巴马当选时（民主党领先11个百分点）。
而上一次任何一个政党在众议院普选得票率至少领先13个百分点，还是在水门事件后的1976年选举中。
Democrats’ House majority is trending toward historic
2026-11-05T20:47:48.417Z
The 2026 midterm elections have clearly been very good for Democrats across the board. But their House majority is trending toward historic numbers.
CNN is projecting that Democrats have won more than 250 House seats, with a net gain of around 40 seats. And they could hit or even exceed 260 total seats by the time all is said and done.
That would give them around an 85-seat majority and make it the biggest Democratic majority since the early 1990s — the tail end of decades of Democratic domination of the House.
After flipping more seats on Thursday afternoon, Democrats have won or hold leads in 259 districts. If those margins hold, Republicans would end up with 174 (two Louisiana races are headed to runoffs).
Democrats lead by around a point or less in six districts: South Carolina’s 1st, Colorado’s 4th, Florida’s 9th, Minnesota’s 1st, North Carolina’s 5th and Tennessee’s 4th.
If Democrats get to 260 seats, it would be their biggest House majority since 1991-93, when they had 267. They had 258 seats in the following Congress and 257 after former President Barack Obama’s big win in 2008 swept Democrats into power.
By winning more than 250 seats, Democrats’ House majority is already bigger than any Republican House majority since the Great Depression. (The GOP’s high watermark since then was 247 seats after the 2014 election). If they won 260, it would mean Democrats have won 60% of the available House seats.
That’s compared to winning between 54% and 56% of the Senate (depending upon how the last two races in Alaska and Mississippi shake out).
It looks as though Democrats will have gained somewhere around 50 seats by the time all races are settled.
If they win the 259 seats where they’re currently ahead, it would be a net gain of 44 seats.
That would be the third-largest gain in the past half-century, behind 2010 (Republicans gained 63 seats) and 1994 (Republicans gained 54).
It would also surpass Democrats’ biggest recent midterms: the 2018 election (41 seats) and the 2006 election (31 seats).
But drilling into the details, the number of seats flipped might be even more significant than all of those.
The GOP flipped so many seats in 2010 in large part because Democrats had such a big majority after the 2008 election. That meant Republicans had lots of low-hanging fruit in conservative-leaning territory to go after.
Republicans were also chipping away at a nearly 260-seat Democratic majority in the 1994 election.
By contrast, the 2026 election began with nearly an even split in the House: Republicans at 220 districts to Democrats’ 215. Democrats were also contending with the fact that Republicans redrew several of their maps to give themselves more conservative-leaning territory (it didn’t work).
The other big metric here is the popular vote. Currently, Democrats lead by about 12 percentage points — a margin which could grow in the coming days as more votes are reported, especially from western, Democratic-leaning states.
There are some caveats with that. It’s skewed somewhat by the fact that California’s top-two primary system means that a handful of races are Republicans-versus-Republican and Democrat-versus-Democrat — rather than having all 435 districts include votes for both major parties.
But it’s still overall a good measure.
This will mark only the second time since 1982 that a party won the House popular vote by double digits — with the other one being the Obama election of 2008 (an 11-point Democratic margin), according to data from the Brookings Institution.
And the last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 13 points was in the post-Watergate election of 1976.
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