2026年11月4日 美国东部时间晚7:47 / CBS新闻
民主党将在2026年中期选举后掌控参议院和众议院。本次选举共设有35个参议院席位，截至目前已有33个席位的选举结果被预测，其中20个席位由民主党拿下。这些席位中有8个来自2024年投票支持特朗普总统的州。另有7个州将此前由共和党掌控的参议院席位转交给民主党。
阿拉斯加州和密西西比州的参议院选举仍被视为胜负难分的竞争。
但即使在共和党参议员获胜的州，得票优势也低于预期。例如，在西弗吉尼亚州，特朗普在2024年以42个百分点的优势获胜。而在今年的中期选举中，共和党现任参议员谢利·穆尔·卡皮托仅以约20个百分点的优势获胜——胜选优势缩减了一半。
在2024年特朗普以超过30个百分点优势获胜的阿拉巴马州，巴里·摩尔在参议院选举中以约9个百分点的优势胜出。在2024年特朗普以13个百分点优势获胜的佛罗里达州，共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪仅以3个百分点的优势赢得连任。（2026年选举数据截至11月4日，已有99%的选票完成统计。）
但民主党候选人的情况恰恰相反。卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年以约14个百分点的优势赢得罗德岛州，而参议员杰克·里德在2026年中期选举中以37个百分点的优势成功连任。
事实上，在2026年中期选举中民主党获胜参议院席位的各州，平均得票优势是哈里斯在2024年总统选举中得票优势的两倍。
共和党平均得票优势仅为特朗普2024年胜选优势的一半。在2024年总统选举至2026年参议院选举期间出现选民阵营转变的各州，选民全部转而支持民主党，民主党获得了约20个百分点的优势。
请查看下方表格，对比2026年每一场参议院选举与2024年总统选举的得票优势。
约翰·凯利对本文亦有贡献。
The 2026 blue wave, in charts: Data shows Senate Democrats won by bigger margins while Republicans lost ground
November 4, 2026 / 7:47 PM EST / CBS News
Democrats will now control the Senate and the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, 33 have been projected so far and 20 of those went blue. Eight of them were in states that voted for President Trump in 2024. Voters in seven states flipped a previously Republican-held Senate seat to a Democrat.
Senate elections in Alaska and Mississippi are still considered toss-ups.
But even in states where Republican senators won, the margins were lower than might have been expected. For example, in West Virginia, Mr. Trump won in 2024 by 42 percentage points. In this year’s midterms, Republican incumbent Sen. Shelly Moore Capito won by about 20 points — the winning margin was cut in half.
Alabama’s Barry Moore won his Senate race by about 9 points in a state Mr. Trump won in 2024 by more than 30 points. In Florida, where Mr. Trump won by 13 points in 2024, GOP Sen. Ashley Moody won reelection by just 3 points. (The 2026 figures are as of Nov. 4, with 99% of votes in.)
But the opposite was true for Democratic candidates. Kamala Harris won Rhode Island in 2024 by about 14 points, but Sen. Jack Reed won reelection in the 2026 midterms by 37 points.
In fact, in states where Democrats won Senate races in the 2026 midterms, average margins were twice as large as Harris’ winning margins in the 2024 presidential election.
Republicans’ average margins were half as large as Mr. Trump’s winning margins in 2024. In states where voters changed sides between the 2024 presidential election to the 2026 Senate elections, all went to Democrats, who gained roughly 20 points.
Use the table below to look through every 2026 Senate race compared to the 2024 presidential race margins.
John Kelly contributed to this report.
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