出口民调已更名为CNN选民调查。以下是这一调整的含义
发布时间:美国东部时间2026年11月3日上午8:38 / CNN
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2026年10月31日,弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩,路易斯·R·琼斯贝斯赛德娱乐中心,一名选民在中期选举提前投票的最后一天填写选票。
埃里克·李/路透社/档案照片
CNN的选举夜报道几十年来一直包含名为出口民调的调查结果,这类调查旨在说明选民如何以及为何做出投票决定。今年,这些调查发生了变化,并有了一个新名称。
CNN选民调查结合了传统的面对面出口民调技术,以及在选举日前开展的大规模全国性 robust(稳健)调查。两个样本来源相结合,将深入了解全国选民,以及本次中期选举中举行联邦参议员或州长选举的45个州的选民情况。
选民调查的最早结果将在美国东部时间选举日下午5点后公布。可能影响选举结果的数据要等到投票站关闭后才会公布。与以往一样,随着采访的持续开展,以及之后对数据进行调整以反映选举结果,调查结果将在整个选举夜不断更新。
选民调查基于对约10万名选民的采访,由SSRS公司代表CNN及其他主要新闻机构开展,包括美国广播公司(ABC)、美联社、哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)、福克斯新闻、MS NOW和全国广播公司(NBC)。
就像CNN过去依赖的出口民调一样,选民调查帮助我们更好地了解哪些人出来投票了、不同群体的投票方式,以及他们对竞选期间一些重大问题的看法。
该调查采用了多种不同的调查方法,以覆盖所有投票方式和投票时间的选民。
近8万名选民参与了10月19日至11月3日期间开展的选举前调查,这些选民来自多个渠道。部分选民是从全国登记选民名单中随机挑选的,通过明信片、电话、短信或邮件被邀请参与调查;另有部分选民来自通过SSRS或Verasight注册参与调查的在线小组,且其信息被匹配到了同一选民档案中。
由于所有调查参与者的信息都被关联到选民档案,开展调查的研究人员掌握着所有参与者的基本信息,包括他们过去的投票记录,以及 demographic(人口统计)和政治特征。他们可以利用这些信息评估每位受访者实际投票的可能性,并通过名为“加权”的过程确保调查具有代表性。
那些参与了调查但未被核实在选举日前已投票的选民,会在选举日或选举日前被再次联系,以确认他们确实投了票,并核实其投票意向是否保持不变。
在15个竞争激烈的州,选举前的采访会与选举日的面对面出口民调相结合——具体做法是,向每个州投票点随机选出的选民发放纸质问卷。投票点本身也是通过随机抽样选出的,这意味着所收集的采访数据应能代表该州选举日的选民情况。预计将通过这种方式采访约2.2万名选民。
选举前调查和选举日调查的受访者都可以选择用英语或西班牙语完成调查。全国样本整体结果的误差幅度为正负0.6个百分点;若针对亚组或单个州,误差幅度会更大。有关选民调查方法的更多详情,可点击此处查看。
Exit polls have become the CNN Voter Poll. Here’s what that means
Published Nov 3, 2026, 8:38 AM ET / CNN
https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/2026-11-01t005505z-1473598264-rc2eeoa44a8p-rtrmadp-3-usa-election-virginia.jpg
A voter fills out a ballot during the last day of early voting for midterm elections in the state at the Louis R. Jones Bayside Recreation Center in Virginia Beach, Virginia, October 31, 2026.
Eric Lee/Reuters/File
CNN’s Election Night coverage has for decades featured the results of surveys, known as exit polls that aim to explain how and why voters made their decisions. This year, those surveys are changing and they have a new name.
The CNN Voter Poll incorporates traditional in-person exit polling techniques alongside a robust, large-sample nationwide survey fielded before Election Day. The two sample sources combined will yield an in-depth look at the electorate nationally as well as in the 45 states holding US Senate or governor elections this midterm.
The earliest results from the Voter Poll will be reported after 5 p.m. ET on Election Day. Data that could characterize the outcome of a race is not reported until after the polls have closed. And as in the past, the results of the survey will change throughout the night as additional interviews are conducted and, later on, as the data is adjusted to reflect the results of the election.
The Voter Poll is based on interviews with roughly 100,000 voters and is conducted by SSRS on behalf of CNN and other major news organizations, including ABC, the Associated Press, CBS, Fox News, MS NOW and NBC.
Like the exit polls that CNN has relied on in the past, the Voter Poll helps us better understand who came out to vote, how different groups of people voted and how they feel about some of the biggest issues of the campaign.
It incorporates several different survey techniques to represent voters regardless of how or when they choose to cast their ballots.
Nearly 80,000 voters participated in the pre-election survey, which was conducted between October 19 and November 3. These voters came from several sources. Some were chosen randomly from a list of registered voters across the country, and were contacted by postcard, telephone, text message or email and invited to take the survey. Others came from online panels of people who are signed up to take surveys through SSRS or Verasight, but were also matched back to the same voter file.
Since all survey participants were connected back to the voter file, researchers conducting the poll have the same basic information about whether they’ve voted in the past as well as demographic and political traits for all people who took the poll. They can use that information to assess how likely each respondent is to actually turn out to vote and to ensure the surveys are representative through a process called weighting.
Those voters who participated in the survey but were not verified as having cast a ballot before Election Day are then recontacted on Election Day or just before to confirm that they did indeed cast a ballot and to check whether their vote choice remains the same.
In 15 states with highly competitive races, those pre-election interviews are then combined with Election Day exit polls conducted in-person, by distributing paper questionnaires to a randomly selected set of voters chosen from voting locations around each state. The polling locations were themselves selected through random sampling, meaning the resulting interviews should be representative of Election Day voters across the state. Roughly 22,000 voters are expected to be interviewed this way.
Respondents to both pre-election and Election Day surveys were able to complete the poll in either English or Spanish. Results for the full national sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups and in individual states. More details on the methodology of the Voter Poll are available here.
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