丹·图伦坦表示，得克萨斯州、密西西比州、堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州的竞选因共和党提名人表现薄弱而存在变数
罗伯特·麦格里维 报道 | 福克斯新闻
2026年10月31日 美国东部时间下午4:01发布
丹·图伦坦曾担任科罗拉多州民主党州长贾里德·波利斯的国会山幕僚长，他将梳理决定周二中期选举后国会控制权归属的关键参议院竞选的利害关系与态势。
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一位资深民主党策略师在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时警告称，共和党糟糕的竞选策略和候选人选择，正为民主党掌控参议院打开大门。
图伦坦在现任科罗拉多州州长贾里德·波利斯担任国会议员期间曾任其幕僚长，他表示，在周二选举前夕，多场势均力敌的参议院竞选似乎正朝着有利于民主党的方向发展。
“距离选举还有五天，民主党极有机会重新掌控参议院，”图伦坦说。
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他援引了多场竞选，包括北卡罗来纳州的角逐——现任共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯将退休。这个长期以来属于共和党铁票仓的席位，似乎即将易主，民调显示前州长罗伊·库珀大幅领先前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·惠特利。
参议院控制权胜负难料——民主党路径要经过“特朗普票仓”
外界普遍预测共和党将失去其微弱的众议院多数席位，目前参议院以53比47由共和党掌控。除北卡罗来纳州外，俄亥俄州、密歇根州等摇摆州，以及得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、密苏里州等传统共和党铁票仓中，多场竞争激烈的参议院竞选让图伦坦等民主党人希望他们能在周二赢得国会全面控制权。
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民主党联邦参议员候选人罗伊·库珀与共和党联邦参议员候选人迈克尔·惠特利是北卡罗来纳州参议院竞选的主要候选人。（阿尔·德拉戈/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社；亚历克斯·王/盖蒂图片社）
在肯定民主党竞选策略的同时，图伦坦还将共和党失利归咎于他所谓的“糟糕的候选人质量”。他列举了得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿、密西西比州的辛迪·海德-史密斯、堪萨斯州的罗杰·马绍尔，以及为已故兄弟、前参议员林赛·格雷厄姆补缺而参选的达琳·格雷厄姆·诺登。
中期选举前关键两州竞选胶着，共和党参议院多数席位面临新不确定性
“如果共和党失去参议院，很可能是上述四个州中的一个失守，”图伦坦说，他与前白宫新闻秘书肖恩·斯派塞共同主持播客《内部简报》。“虽然总统的支持率是问题的一部分，但最后关头的胜负取决于候选人素质是否薄弱。”
福克斯新闻实力排名：南卡罗来纳州变为胶着状态
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不过尽管民主党在民调中表现不俗，图伦坦也承认此前的民调高估了对其政党的支持度。
“竞选团队对民调感到恐慌，”他说，同时补充道，“触达选民比以往任何时候都更困难；人们没有固定电话，还经常无视陌生号码。”
“沉默的多数”问题：竞选民调员为何持续“重蹈覆辙”
“我们已经经历了连续三次‘变革选举’——2016年、2022年、2024年——民调都难以捕捉选举最后阶段的动态。愤怒的特朗普选民会待在家里吗？还是得克萨斯州民主党近期的势头，只是反映高倾向选民提前投票，而非扩大选民基础？没人知道，周二的选举让大家心里都没底，”他说。
本周《纽约时报》爆出重磅消息，指控阿拉斯加州民主党联邦参议员候选人玛丽·佩托拉协助招募了一位名叫丹尼尔·J·沙利文的人，让他与现任共和党参议员丹尼尔·S·沙利文竞选，目的是误导选民，让他们误将丹尼尔·J·沙利文投给现任参议员。在此之前，图伦坦对民主党掌控参议院更有信心。
报道：玛丽·佩托拉的竞选团队及民主党支持在阿拉斯加参议院竞选中秘密策划“搅局候选人”
佩托拉否认参与了前沙利文的竞选活动。
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阿拉斯加州民主党前众议员、联邦参议员候选人玛丽·佩托拉，错过了周日的竞选巡回活动，并将在周一休息，周二再回归竞选最后一周的行程——这是中期选举地图上最具影响力的参议院竞选之一。（纳撒尼尔·怀尔德/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社）
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“直到昨天，佩托拉几乎在所有民调中都领先。和众多州一样，民主党靠的是不满共和党的选民。这些选民只要稍微动摇，就可能说‘实在无法接受民主党’，”图伦坦说，并补充称，这个“边疆州”现在可能变成胶着状态。
图伦坦表示，如果阿拉斯加州的参议院席位从民主党手中失守，参议院多数席位的归属可能取决于民主党能否赢得俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州，以及密歇根州、缅因州、堪萨斯州或密西西比州中的一个。
“在缅因州，我们整个职业生涯都在想着要击败[共和党现任议员]苏珊·柯林斯。这次感觉有点不一样，但其实也没差；她的支持率仅差一两个百分点。没有民主党人希望参议院多数席位的归属取决于缅因州或阿拉斯加州，”他补充道。
根据近期美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的民调，柯林斯与顶替格雷厄姆·普莱特纳参选的特洛伊·杰克逊的支持率为49比45。
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焦点图片（档案照）：缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯指责特朗普政府破坏国会的宪法拨款权。（CJ·冈瑟/盖蒂图片社）
如果民主党确实掌控了参议院，图伦坦认为他们将不得不应对党内日益高涨的社会主义思潮和日益受欢迎的极左翼势力。
“在我所说的‘多数派核心’与‘认为……双方都需要我’的选民基础之间，存在着这种矛盾，对吧？如果选民基础不出来投票，温和派就赢不了，”图伦坦补充道。
他转述了党内对众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯的批评，如果民主党从共和党手中夺回众议院控制权，杰弗里斯将有望成为议长。
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民主党领袖、纽约州民主党众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯与加利福尼亚州民主党众议员南希·佩洛西在共和党领袖、加利福尼亚州共和党众议员凯文·麦卡锡周五（2023年1月6日）未能获得足够选票当选众议院议长后，在议席上交谈。（汤姆·威廉姆斯/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via 盖蒂图片社）
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“没人知道哈基姆·杰弗里斯的立场如何。也没人真正了解哈基姆·杰弗里斯是谁，”图伦坦说。
“佩洛西赢得了党内两大阵营的信任；而哈基姆·杰弗里斯仍面临双方对其立场的质疑，与此同时[参议院少数党领袖]查克·舒默还要提防来自左翼的初选挑战，”他补充道。
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Veteran Dem operative says subpar GOP candidates poised to hand over Senate majority
Dan Turrentine says races in Texas, Mississippi, Kansas and South Carolina are vulnerable due to weak GOP nominees
By Robert McGreevyFox News
Published October 31, 2026 4:01pm EDT
Dan Turrentine, former Capitol Hill chief of staff to Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, lays out the stakes and standings for the key Senate races that could determine who controls Congress after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
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A top Democratic operative warned that poor campaigns and candidate choice from Republicans are opening the door for Democrats to seize control of the Senate during an interview with Fox News Digital.
Dan Turrentine, who served as chief of staff to current Colorado Gov. Jared Polis when he was a member of Congress, said several close Senate races seem to be trending Democrat in the leadup to Tuesday’s election.
“Five days out, Democrats have a pretty good chance to retake the Senate,” Turrentine said.
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He cited several races, including North Carolina, where incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. That seat, which has long been red, seems poised to flip as polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a commanding lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.
SENATE CONTROL IS A COIN FLIP — AND DEMOCRATS’ PATH RUNS THROUGH TRUMP COUNTRY
Republicans, who are widely projected to lose their slim House majority, currently hold a 53-47 lead in the Senate. In addition to North Carolina, a number of surprisingly close Senate races in both swing states like Ohio and Michigan, and in typically deep red states such as Texas, Kansas and Missouri, have Democrats like Turrentine hopeful they can gain full control of Congress on Tuesday.
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Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley are the top candidates in North Carolina’s Senate race.(Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)
While crediting smart campaigning from Democrats, Turrentine also pinned Republican shortcomings on what he called poor candidate quality. He cited Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running to take the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.
GOP SENATE MAJORITY FACES FRESH UNCERTAINTY AS 2 KEY RACES TIGHTEN DAYS BEFORE MIDTERMS
“If Republicans lose the Senate, it’s likely one of those four loses,” said Turrentine, who hosts “The Huddle” podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer. “While the president’s standing is part of the problem, that last mile comes down to weak candidate quality.”
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: SOUTH CAROLINA MOVES TO TOSS-UP
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But while Democrats are performing well in polls, Turrentine acknowledged that previous surveys have overstated support for his party.
“Campaigns are terrified about polling,” he said, adding that “reaching voters is harder than ever; people don’t have landlines and routinely ignore unknown numbers.”
THE SILENT MAJORITY PROBLEM AND WHY CAMPAIGN POLLSTERS KEEP ‘FIGHTING THE LAST WAR’ ON ELECTIONS
“We’ve had consecutive change elections — 2016, 2022, 2024 — where polling struggled to capture late-breaking dynamics. Will frustrated Trump voters stay home, or will early Democratic surges in Texas just reflect high-propensity voters banking votes early rather than expanding the electorate? Nobody knows, and people have a knot in their stomach about Tuesday,” he said.
Turrentine was a even more confident in a Democratic takeover of the Senate before this week’s bombshell New York Times report alleging that Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit a man named Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, R-Alaska, to ostensibly confuse voters into accidentally choosing Daniel J. Sullivan over the incumbent senator.
MARY PELTOLA’S CAMPAIGN, DEMS BACKED COVERT SCHEME TO FIELD SPOILER CANDIDATES IN ALASKA SENATE RACE: REPORT
Peltola has denied any involvement in the former Sullivan’s campaign.
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Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, a U.S. Senate candidate, missed Sunday campaign tour events and will be resting Monday before returning to the trail Tuesday for the final week before one of the most consequential Senate races on the midterm map.(Nathaniel Wilder/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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“Peltola has led almost every single poll until yesterday. Like so many of these states, Democrats win on disgruntled Republicans. It wouldn’t take much for those voters to say they can’t stomach the Democrat,” said Turrentine, adding that the Frontier State may now be a tossup.
If Alaska’s Senate seat slips from the Democrats’ grip, a majority could come down to the Democrats winning Ohio, Texas and one of Michigan, Maine, Kansas or Mississippi, Turrentine said.
“In Maine, we’ve spent entire careers thinking we’re going to defeat [GOP incumbent] Susan Collins. It feels slightly different this time, but it also doesn’t; she’s within a point or two. No Democrat wants the majority coming down to Maine or Alaska,” he added.
Collins trails Graham Platner replacement Troy Jackson 49-45, according to a recent CNN poll.
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FILE – Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, accused the Trump administration of undermining Congress’s Constitutional power of the purse.(CJ Gunther/Getty Images)
If the Democrats do take the Senate, Turrentine suggested, they will have to contend with the rising tide of socialism and an increasingly popular far-left wing within the party.
“This tension between who will be what I’ll call the majority makers and the base that feels like… both feel like, ‘You need me,’ right? A moderate can’t win if the base doesn’t turn out,” Turrentine added.
He relayed party criticisms of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become speaker should the Democrats wrest control of the lower chamber from the GOP.
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Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., talk on the floor after Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., did not receive enough votes for Speaker of House on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023.(Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
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“Nobody knows where Hakeem Jeffries comes down. And no one knows who Hakeem Jeffries is,” Turrentine said.
“Pelosi had the trust of both wings; Hakeem Jeffries still faces questions from both sides about where he stands, all while [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer watches for a primary challenge from his left,” he added.
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