2026-10-28T10:00:15.384Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
众议院民主党人似乎正徘徊在几十年来最悬殊的普选胜利边缘。
美国有线电视新闻网的“民调聚合”显示，他们在所谓的“通用席位竞争”中领先9个百分点，这在很大程度上要归功于唐纳德·特朗普总统创下的历史级低支持率。上一次任何政党在中期选举中以至少10个百分点的优势赢得众议院普选还是1986年的事。
不过，与众议院相比，参议院的竞争更难追踪。众议院共有435个席位，大大小小的竞选太多，很难判断哪些才是关键。如何判断民主党是只是在争夺多数党所需的218个席位（外界普遍预期他们会胜出），还是在酝酿一场“浪潮”？
我们挑选了一些关键竞选，它们将预示民主党是会增加席位、能否达到多数，甚至是否正酝酿一场“海啸”级别的浪潮。
选举之夜关注这些竞选，就能知道民主党表现如何。
这些都是民主党在任何情况下都本该轻松拿下的竞选。
加利福尼亚州第1选区：该选区经过重新划分后，2024年本应让卡玛拉·哈莉领先12个百分点，因此这是民主党最轻松的席位夺取机会。共和党众议员詹姆斯·加拉格尔正在寻求连任，但如果民主党在这里失手，他们将会遭遇令人震惊的结果。
内布拉斯加州第2选区：考虑到温和派共和党众议员唐·培根宣布退休，且这个奥马哈周边的选区略微偏向蓝营，这场竞选本应是民主党政治活动家丹妮斯·鲍恩的囊中之物。
新泽西州第7选区：这个摇摆选区所在的州，在2024年总统选举和2025年州议会选举期间已转向民主党。再加上共和党众议员汤姆·基恩长达数月的莫名缺席（他后来称是因抑郁症接受治疗），以及某顶级共和党超级政治行动委员会最近撤资该选区，民主党拿下这个席位的迹象十分明显。
这些席位的胜利本应意味着民主党即将跨过众议院多数的最低门槛（技术上他们需要夺回3个共和党席位，但共和党在十年中期重新划分选区已有效将门槛提高了几个席位）。
亚利桑那州第6选区：几周前特朗普在亚利桑那州举办集会时，共和党众议员胡安·西斯克莫尼并未出席，这一点很能说明问题（该州开放的第1选区共和党候选人杰伊·菲克利也未到场）。西斯克莫尼占据了一个实打实的摇摆选区，如果民主党选举之夜表现不错，这个选区本应是他们的囊中之物。
艾奥瓦州第3选区：共和党众议员扎克·纳恩今年9月因投票限制特朗普在伊朗战争中的授权而引发广泛关注。他所在的选区2024年让特朗普领先4个百分点，但民主党在艾奥瓦州正取得显著进展——他们正全力争夺3个众议院选区、拿下参议院和州长职位。
得克萨斯州第34选区：共和党将民主党众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯的选区重新划分为特朗普原本能拿下10个百分点的选区。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊已把保住这类席位视为自己的政治生命，他在最近一场竞选活动中表示：“南得克萨斯州将实实在在决定国会的多数席位。”但民调显示，自那以后拉丁裔选民已显著重新转向民主党。这意味着，民主党若想赢得多数，就必须守住这个席位。
如果民主党拿下这些席位，他们很可能正在酝酿一场至少是某种形式的浪潮选举。
肯塔基州第6选区：该选区共和党众议员安迪·巴尔正卸任参选参议院，特朗普原本能在这里领先15个百分点，但共和党提名者拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多从8月开始就明显与特朗普保持距离。这也将是首个在东部时间下午6点结束计票的重量级众议院竞选。
蒙大拿州第1选区：这是另一个开放席位的竞选，属于特朗普领先两位数的选区，且一段时间以来竞争都十分激烈。民主党已推出一位看起来有胜算的候选人：民粹主义劳工领袖、前空降灭火队员山姆·福斯特格，他将对阵共和党陆军老兵亚伦·弗林特。
宾夕法尼亚州第1选区：在这个摇摆选区，共和党众议员布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克——或许是众议院共和党中最突出的温和派——多年来展现出极强的韧性。事实上，尽管特朗普在该选区以微弱劣势落败，他仍在2024年以13个百分点的优势获胜。但这类在任者往往会在浪潮选举中落败。
拿下这些选区将让2026年成为近年中期选举浪潮中规模较大的一次。
科罗拉多州第4选区：共和党众议员劳伦·博伯特有过不少个人问题（详见：“甲壳虫汁”事件）。但2024年她转战科罗拉多州东部的深蓝红选区时，原本被认为是稳操胜券。结合她的问题和选举环境，这个特朗普领先18个百分点的选区如今有了竞争力。
密苏里州第2选区：共和党众议员安·瓦格纳在2022年和2024年都以两位数优势获胜，但民主党人弗雷德·韦尔曼发起的强劲挑战让这场竞选进入公众视野。该选区并非极度保守（特朗普领先8个百分点），但瓦格纳已证明是一位可靠的在任者——人们普遍认为她不容易落败。
纽约州第21选区：去年民主党选举势头的首个重要迹象之一，是特朗普撤销了共和党众议员埃莉丝·斯蒂芬尼克出任联合国大使的提名，因为共和党担心在一场特别选举中会失去她所在的特朗普领先21个百分点的选区。当时人们几乎无法想象，他们还需要在大选阶段为这个席位辩护，而这类意外落败在大选中并不常见。但斯蒂芬尼克已宣布退休，共和党提名者安东尼·康斯坦丁诺可能会输掉这场竞选。
如果这些席位转为民主党阵营，周二可能会是共和党遭遇史诗般惨败的一天。
堪萨斯州第2选区：如果民主党兽医唐·库弗能在这个特朗普领先20个百分点的选区逆袭击败共和党众议员德里克·施密特，这很可能是因为民主党参议院提名者亚当·汉密尔顿表现过于出色，带动库弗顺势胜出。
得克萨斯州第9选区：共和党重新绘制该州国会版图，试图再拿下多达5个席位时，这个原本特朗普能拿下20个百分点的选区，被认为是5个中第二容易的。但在民调显示竞争在个位数后，部分共和党外部团体已开始力挺共和党候选人亚历克斯·迈勒。
怀俄明州无选区众议员席位：民调机构“内幕选举”最近将这个特朗普赢得46个百分点的全州开放席位从“稳固共和党”改为“大概率共和党”，引发关注。该机构指出了特朗普的问题，以及共和党参务卿查克·格雷的极端对立形象。如果民主党人莉萨·金尼能拿下这场选举，2026年的选举将是历史性的。
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/politics/video/nebraska-democrat-primary-midterm-gop-lead-jake-tapper
How to tell if Democrats are heading for a wave election in the House
2026-10-28T10:00:15.384Z / CNN
House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades.
The CNN Poll of Polls shows them leading the so-called “generic ballot” by 9 points, thanks in large part to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 10 points in a midterm was in 1986.
But more so than the Senate, the battle for the House is difficult to follow. There are so many races — 435 of them, to be exact — and it’s tough to know which ones are important. How do you know whether Democrats are merely competing for the 218 seats needed for the majority — which they’re widely expected to win — or building a wave?
We’ve picked a few races that will indicate whether Democrats are gaining seats, whether that’s enough for the majority and whether there’s a wave or even a tsunami building.
Follow these races on election night to know how well Democrats are doing.
These are the kinds of races Democrats really should be winning, under any circumstances.
California’s 1st District: This should be Democrats’ easiest pickup, after the district was redrawn to be one that would’ve favored Kamala Harris by 12 points in 2024. GOP Rep. James Gallagher is seeking reelection, but if Democrats can’t win here, they’re in for some shocking results.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Given moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement and the slight blue lean of this Omaha-area district, this one should be a win for Democratic political activist Denise Powell.
New Jersey’s 7th District: This is a swing district in a state that moved toward Democrats between the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 state elections. Combine that with GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s months-long unexplained absence — he later cited treatment for depression — and the fact that a top Republican super PAC recently pulled money out of this district, and the signs of a Democratic pickup are there.
These are the seats where victory should mean Democrats are clearing the low bar for a House majority. (They technically need to flip three Republican seats, but the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting has effectively raised that threshold by a handful of seats.)
Arizona’s 6th District: It would seem telling that GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani didn’t show up a couple weeks back when Trump was in Arizona for a rally. (GOP candidate Jay Feely, who’s running in the state’s open 1st District, wasn’t there either.) Ciscomani holds a bona-fide swing district that should be very attainable for Democrats if they’re having a good night.
Iowa’s 3rd District: GOP Rep. Zach Nunn made big news in September by voting to limit Trump’s authority on the Iran war. He comes from a district that favored Trump by 4 points in 2024, but Democrats appear to be gaining significant ground in Iowa — competing to flip three House districts and win the Senate and gubernatorial races.
Texas’ 34th District: The GOP made Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s district into one Trump would have won by 10 points. House Speaker Mike Johnson has staked his job on holding seats like this one, saying at a recent campaign event, “South Texas will literally decide the majority in the Congress.” But polls show Hispanic voters have swung significantly back toward Democrats since then. That means they should really hold on to this seat if they’re to win the majority.
If Democrats are winning these seats, they’re probably looking at a wave election of at least some sort.
Kentucky’s 6th District: This district, which GOP Rep. Andy Barr is vacating to run for Senate, favored Trump by 15 points, but Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado began significantly distancing himself from Trump back in August. This will also be the first marquee House race where polls will close (at 6 p.m. Eastern Time).
Montana’s 1st District: This is another open-seat race in a double-digit Trump district that has looked competitive for a while. And Democrats have picked the kind of candidate who can seemingly put it in play: populist labor leader and former smokejumper Sam Forstag, who will face Republican Army veteran Aaron Flint.
Pennsylvania’s 1st District: In this swing district, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — perhaps the House GOP’s preeminent moderate — has proven remarkably resilient over the years. In fact, he won by 13 points in 2024 despite Trump narrowly losing his district. But these are the kinds of incumbents who tend to lose in a wave.
Winning these districts would make 2026 one of the bigger midterm waves in recent history.
Colorado’s 4th District: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has had her share of personal problems (see: “Beetlejuice”). But she was supposed to be safe when she switched to a deep-red eastern Colorado district in the 2024 election. The combination of her problems and the environment means this Trump +18 district is in play.
Missouri’s 2nd District: GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won by double digits in 2022 and 2024, but a spirited challenge from Democrat Fred Wellman has put this race on the radar screen. The district is not overwhelmingly conservative at Trump +8, but Wagner’s proven a solid incumbent — the kind you don’t really expect to lose.
New York’s 21st District:One of the first big signs of Democrats’ electoral momentum last year was when Trump withdrew GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to become United Nations ambassador because Republicans were worried about losing her Trump +21 district in a special election. It was virtually unthinkable at the time that they might also have to defend it in the general election, when such upsets aren’t nearly as common. But Stefanik is retiring, and it’s possible that Republican nominee Anthony Constantino could lose.
If these seats go blue, Tuesday could be a Republican drubbing of epic proportions.
Kansas’ 2nd District: If Democratic veterinarian Don Coover can upset GOP Rep. Derek Schmidt in this Trump +20 district, it will probably be because Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton did so well that his coattails pulled Coover across the line.
Texas’ 9th District: When Republicans redrew this state’s congressional map to try and win as many as five additional seats, this district — which Trump also would have won by 20 points — was supposed to be the second-easiest of the five. But some GOP outside groups have moved to shore up Republican Alex Mealer after a poll showed a single-digit race.
Wyoming’s At-Large District: The handicapper Inside Elections recently turned heads by moving this open statewide race, where Trump won by 46 points, from “solid Republican” to merely “likely Republican.” It cited Trump’s problems and how divisive GOP Secretary of State Chuck Gray has been. If Democrat Lisa Kinney can pull it off, the 2026 election will be historic.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/politics/video/nebraska-democrat-primary-midterm-gop-lead-jake-tapper
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