在得州州长选举中，塔拉里科的支持者跨党派支持，令阿博特占据微弱优势
2026年10月21日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
达娜·佩里诺警告：共和党在竞争激烈的得州参议院选举中处于守势
《美国新闻演播室》联合主播达娜·佩里诺在《福克斯与朋友们》节目中讨论了肯·帕克斯顿与詹姆斯·塔拉里科之间的高风险得州参议院席位角逐。
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得州已经有30多年没有在全州范围选举中支持过民主党候选人了，但这一纪录今年可能面临严峻考验。一项最新福克斯新闻民调显示，尽管得州可能选民支持共和党继续掌控美国参议院，并让现任共和党州长格雷格·阿博特在连任竞选中占据微弱优势，但参议院席位的争夺仍陷入僵局。
周三发布的这项民调显示，在接替约翰·康林参议员的得州参议院席位角逐中，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿在可能选民中支持率均为49%，打成平手。康林在共和党初选中输给了获得特朗普总统支持的帕克斯顿。
上个月，塔拉里科在可能选民中还以2个百分点的优势领先（51%-49%）。此次支持率持平的变化反映出，帕克斯顿巩固了保守派、农村选民、郊区女性以及初选中支持康林的选民的支持。
FOX NEWS POLL: TUREK, HINSON IN CLOSE IOWA SENATE RACE
尽管帕克斯顿未能达到特朗普2024年的得州支持率，但自9月以来，他在男性（+1个百分点）和女性（+1个百分点）群体中的支持率均小幅上升，而塔拉里科的支持率则分别小幅下滑（-1和-2个百分点）。
塔拉里科在黑人选民（领先65个百分点）、城市选民（+29）、30岁以下选民（+28）以及拥有大学学历的女性选民（+23）中占据大幅领先优势。帕克斯顿的最强支持群体包括白人福音派基督徒（+52）、未获得大学学历的白人男性（+32）、农村选民（+21）以及65岁及以上选民（+18）。
民调显示，西班牙裔选民正重新转向民主党。根据福克斯新闻得州选民分析数据，他们在2020年曾以25个百分点的优势支持前总统乔·拜登，2024年则以1个百分点的优势支持特朗普。如今这个关键投票群体以30个百分点的差距支持塔拉里科（64%-34%），并以29个百分点的优势支持民主党掌控美国参议院。
总体而言，在参议院控制权问题上，得州选民以4个百分点的差距支持共和党（51%对47%），较9月的+1个百分点有所上升。
塔拉里科更高的党派忠诚度是这场竞选胶着的另一个原因：98%的民主党人支持他，而支持帕克斯顿的共和党人比例为90%。近三成非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人跨党派支持塔拉里科。
FOX NEWS POLL: COST-OF-LIVING CONCERNS WEIGH ON GOP IN MIDTERMS
民主党人在选民热情上也占据优势：69%的民主党选民对今年的选举“极度感兴趣”，而共和党选民这一比例为61%。极度感兴趣的选民以7个百分点的优势支持塔拉里科。
“这场选举将归结为两个基本问题，”协助福克斯新闻民调与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同开展调研的共和党民调专家达伦·肖表示。“心怀不满的共和党选民会不会出来投票？如果他们出来投票，会不会咬牙支持一个他们严重不信任的候选人？”
选民对塔拉里科的评价净正面，但仅领先1个百分点（49%正面，48%负面），而帕克斯顿的支持率则落后17个百分点（41%正面，58%负面）。在“双讨厌”选民——即对两位候选人都持负面看法的选民——中，帕克斯顿以50个百分点的优势领先。
选民对两位候选人的担忧程度相似：53%的人担心塔拉里科的立场过于自由化，50%的人担心帕克斯顿与特朗普走得太近。这两种担忧的强烈程度几乎一致，36%的人“极度担心”塔拉里科，37%的人“极度担心”帕克斯顿。
2024年，特朗普在孤星州（得州）以近14个百分点的优势获胜，但他目前的工作支持率落后9个百分点（45%认可，54%不认可）。不过，仍有13%不认可特朗普的选民支持帕克斯顿，而6%认可特朗普的选民支持塔拉里科。
在个人财务状况方面，超过两倍的选民表示与两年前相比“境况更糟”（43%），而表示“境况更好”的比例为20%；36%的人表示“差不多”。
境况更糟的选民以45个百分点的优势支持塔拉里科，而境况更好（+49个百分点）或差不多（+26个百分点）的选民则支持帕克斯顿。
州长选举则为共和党提供了更多喘息空间：阿博特以5个百分点的微弱优势领先民主党挑战者吉娜·希诺霍萨（52%对47%），这一比例自9月以来未发生变化。
阿博特的工作支持率为正面（50%认可，48%不认可），几乎所有认可他的选民都在州长选举中支持他，还有9%不认可他的选民也投了他的票。
阿博特还受益于更强的党派忠诚度，以及塔拉里科支持者中更多的“分裂投票”行为：7%的塔拉里科支持者同时支持阿博特，而支持帕克斯顿的选民中仅有2%会支持希诺霍萨。
本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年10月15日至19日开展，由Beacon Research（民主党团队）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党团队）联合指导，样本为从全州选民档案中随机抽取的2011名得州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（205人）、手机（1303人）接受现场访谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（503人）。登记选民样本的抽样误差范围为±2个百分点，针对1398名可能选民的子样本误差范围为±2.5个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。用于制定加权目标的数据源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析数据和选民档案数据。通常会针对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口结构能够代表登记选民群体。可能选民的划分基于概率统计模型，该模型参考了过往投票记录、对当前选举的兴趣、投票意向、年龄、教育程度、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。仅当样本量至少达到N=100时，才会展示子群体的调查结果。
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Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish
In the Texas governor’s race, Talarico supporters cross the aisle to give Abbott an edge
October 21, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
Dana Perino warns GOP is on defense in tight Texas Senate race
‘America’s Newsroom’ co-anchor Dana Perino discusses the high-stakes Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on ‘Fox & Friends.’
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Texas hasn’t gone blue in a statewide race in more than 30 years, but that streak could face a serious test this year. A new Fox News poll finds that while Texas likely voters favor Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate and give incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott an edge in his re-election bid, the Senate race remains deadlocked.
The survey, released Wednesday, finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to President Trump-backed Paxton.
Last month, Talarico was up by 2 points among likely voters (51%-49%). The shift to a tie reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed Cornyn in the primary.
FOX NEWS POLL: TUREK, HINSON IN CLOSE IOWA SENATE RACE
Although Paxton is falling short of Trump’s 2024 margins, he has strengthened his support a tad among both men (+1) and women (+1) since September, while Talarico slightly lost support (-1 and -2, respectively).
Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), those under age 30 (+28), and women with a college degree (+23). Paxton’s strongest groups include White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and those age 65 and up (+18).
The survey finds Hispanic voters swinging back toward the Democrats. After backing former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020, they favored Trump by 1 point in 2024, according to the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis. This key voting bloc now favors Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.
Overall, when it comes to Senate control, Texans choose Republicans by 4 points (51% to 47%), up from +1 point in September.
Talarico’s stronger party loyalty is another reason the race is close: 98% of Democrats support him, compared with 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton. Nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans cross party lines to back Talarico.
FOX NEWS POLL: COST-OF-LIVING CONCERNS WEIGH ON GOP IN MIDTERMS
Democrats also retain an enthusiasm edge: 69% are extremely interested in this year’s election, compared with 61% of Republicans. Extremely interested voters back Talarico by 7 points.
“The race is going to come down to two basic questions,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?”
Views of Talarico are net positive, albeit by just 1 point (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton’s ratings are underwater by 17 (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Among “double haters,” voters who view both candidates negatively, Paxton leads by 50 points.
Voters express similar levels of concern about both candidates: 53% worry Talarico’s positions are too liberal, while 50% are concerned Paxton is too close to Trump. The intensity of these concerns is nearly identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% about Paxton.
In 2024, Trump won the Lone Star State by nearly 14 points, but his job rating is currently underwater by 9 points (45% approve, 54% disapprove). Still, Paxton draws support from 13% of voters who disapprove of Trump, while 6% of Trump approvers back Talarico.
When it comes to their personal finances, more than twice as many voters say they are worse off (43%) than better off (20%) compared with two years ago; 36% say they are about the same.
Voters who are worse off back Talarico by 45 points, while those who are better off (+49) or about the same (+26) favor Paxton.
The governor’s race gives Republicans more breathing room: Abbott edges his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, by 5 points (52% to 47%), unchanged since September.
Abbott has a positive job rating (50% approve, 48% disapprove), and nearly all who approve support him in the race, as do 9% of those who disapprove.
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Abbott also benefits from slightly stronger party loyalty and more ticket-splitting among Talarico supporters: 7% support Abbott, compared with 2% of Paxton supporters who back Hinojosa.
Conducted October 15-19, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 2,011 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (205) and cellphones (1,303) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (503). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points, and for the subsample of 1,398 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
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